We have further updated our assessment of the global Q3 2003 results season, which is now 52% complete for rated nonfinancial corporates. Revenue growth has stalled and EBITDA continues to decline. Measured at annual rate, revenues are near-flat and EBITDA is down 4.6%. Industry patterns continue to show good performance from some consumer sectors – media, leisure, and retail – and deterioration for heavy industries, resources, shipping, and technology. The pressure from surging cash interest payments continues to grow, rising 21% annually overall and 25% for SG based on results so far. Leverage is drifting higher and interest-cover continues to ebb. Companies have reacted to the deteriorating growth environment by cutting back on share buybacks and curbing dividend growth, and there are early signs that capex growth is easing.
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