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Cost Of Living Crisis: Payment Shock In Swedish Covered Bond Pools

Swedish consumer prices are rising rapidly, pushing policy and mortgage rates to multi-year highs. For a sample of over a million mortgage loans backing Swedish covered bond programs, the average monthly payment has risen to Swedish krona (SEK) 2,256 from SEK1,503 (+50%) at the start of 2022, assuming rates have risen by 300 basis points (bps). If rates were to rise a further 200 bps, the average payment would rise to SEK2,792 (+86%). Two-thirds of the loans in our sample are either on a floating rate or will have reset to a new fixed rate by the end of 2023, and will therefore have experienced a payment shock by then. Many loans backing Swedish covered bonds--45% in our sample--pay interest only. These loans are more sensitive to rate rises and see almost twice the monthly payment increase compared with amortizing loans in our sample under the same rate rise scenarios.

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