While credit metrics in the most vulnerable sectors have only modestly deteriorated so far, we expect soaring inflation and the more volatile economic environment to be reflected in elevated defaults and delinquencies throughout 2023. Given our macroeconomic outlook, we believe any revisions to our base case and stressed performance assumptions would only affect speculative-grade ratings. Even if our downside macroeconomic scenario were to materialize, we expect our investment-grade ratings on European and U.K. consumer ABS would remain stable. European ABS issuance may only marginally recover in 2023, given muted underlying lending and despite greater interest rate certainty and normalizing monetary policy. Overall consumer spending is likely to fall, although the scaling back of cheap central bank funding schemes or the expiration and repricing of warehouse funding lines could support issuance.