This paper lays out a downside scenario to S&P Global Ratings' recently published macro baseline. It is based on a set of alternate projections for 15 key economies and determines the effects on three key economic variables (growth, inflation, and unemployment) for 2023-2025. We estimate this scenario has a roughly one-in-three likelihood of materializing. The downside scenario is centered on two key assumptions. First, inflation pressures are more entrenched than in our baseline and require a stronger and longer policy response, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Second, the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on, exacerbating the ongoing energy crisis and heightened risk-aversion. Europe would be hit the hardest. Growth in the eurozone would be 90 basis points (bps) weaker than in our base case in 2023. Germany suffers an extended recession, with growth 1.2 percentage points lower in 2023, and 90 bps lower in 2024. Inflation is 1-2 percentage points higher than in our baseline.