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RMBS Performance Watch: Australia - Prime Arrears And Prepayment Statistics (Incl. Noncapital Market Issuance) Q1 2022

Australian prime mortgage arrears hit a post-financial crisis low in the first quarter of 2022. This means arrears will be rising off historically low levels as monetary policy tightens. We expect to see mortgage arrears increase in the months ahead, following a two-year decline during the pandemic, when competitive lending conditions and expansionary monetary policy settings kept arrears low. The Standard & Poor's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages fell to post-financial crisis record 0.73% in March from 0.94% the same month a year earlier. Households' resilience is set to be tested, though, as multiple rate rises are passed on to borrowers in quick succession. Across the Australian RMBS sector, most borrowers should be well placed to manage this transition, given the buildup in repayment buffers, equity build up in home loans, and the inclusion of interest-rate buffers in debt-serviceability assessments.

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