A rapid deterioration in global macroeconomic conditions, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and lingering COVID-19 lockdowns in China, are fueling persistently high inflation, market volatility, and rising yields, posing an increasingly murky outlook for credit quality that–for now at least–exhibits a degree of resilience built up during the bounce-back from the pandemic. • Key risks relate to: the outlook for energy and food as supply disruptions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensify, a rapid adjustment of central bank policy rates to counter excessive inflationary pressures, stagnant growth weakening the operating environment and financial performance of corporates, tightening financing conditions reawakening fears over fragmentation within the eurozone, and the debt sustainability of more vulnerable entities.