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Cost Of Living Crisis: How Bad Could It Get For U.K. RMBS?

U.K. mortgage borrowers' cost of living is rising at a rate not seen for decades, as consumer inflation surges and monetary policy tightened in response. We currently expect U.K. consumer price inflation to average 7.6% in 2022 before falling to 3.6% in 2023. We expect interest rates to rise further in 2022 and beyond. While arrears levels in U.K. RMBS collateral pools are, for now, generally stable, there are borrowers who, while currently up to date with mortgage payments, have been in arrears at some point in the past two years. We consider these borrowers to be the most vulnerable to the cost-of-living crisis and to falling into arrears.

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