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Economic Research: EU Membership Has Changed Trade Patterns For Many CEE Countries

Eastern member countries of the EU are more exposed than most to the Russia-Ukraine conflict because of proximity and history. A closer look at trade data shows, however, that Central and East European (CEE) countries have relatively limited direct trade exposure to Russia thanks to their orientation toward EU member countries. Plus, their exports to Russia declined after the first round of sanctions against the country and its countersanctions in 2014. As long as the war lasts, CEE exports will suffer from the loss of Ukrainian demand. However, as soon as the reconstruction of the country starts, Ukrainian imports should accelerate. The picture is somewhat different for Baltic countries. Although their exports to Russia also about halved since 2013, they started from much higher levels and, therefore, dependence is still greater.

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