As the Russia-Ukraine military conflict rages on, and the West’s sanctions continue to hammer the Russian economy, the reverberations are being felt around the world. And while the U.S. is comparatively isolated from the effects (certainly relative to the pain many European countries are feeling), the ramifications of the conflict are measurable—both for the world’s biggest economy and the businesses and borrowers that operate in it. S&P Global Economics’ preliminary estimate in response to developments related to the crisis is that the effects will shave 70 basis points (bps) from U.S. GDP growth this year, with the economy now set to expand 3.2%. The prospects of steadily rising interest rates and persistent inflation are the main drivers of this assessment, with an expected recession in Russia playing only a small part.