75% of rated Italian companies currently display stable outlooks. Negative outlooks have dropped to a low 4% from 40% at end-2020, a strong rebound reflecting recovered business conditions. Revenues in 2021 are already back to 2019 levels, on average, moderately outperforming Italy’s 6% GDP growth. We also anticipate healthy revenue growth in 2022-2023, again better than GDP growth. Conversely, margin recovery is slowing, largely because of a lag in the pass-through of increased raw material and energy costs, whose effects will become more visible in 2022. Corporate investments are growing strongly. Rated Italian companies are showing 30% growth for 2021 and plan a 9% increase in 2022. Capex accounts for one-fourth of GDP growth this year, in parallel with construction, largely owing to improved business confidence and tax incentives to promote innovation. Financial leverage is set to recover in 2022. Speculative-grade companies are bouncing back faster than investment-grade companies.
Download