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Global Credit Conditions Q2 2021: The Risks Of An Uneven Recovery

Credit conditions should remain largely favorable across regions, as major central banks seem poised to support market liquidity well into 2023. In addition to strong central bank support, an improving economic outlook and vaccine progress are underpinning these favorable conditions. Against this backdrop, forward-looking credit trends point to a marked improvement.Even so, recovery prospects vary substantially across industries. For many credits, this year will be a balancing act between the economic rebound, vaccine rollout, and favorable funding conditions on the one hand, but still high leverage and subdued earnings on the other. Defaults are likely to remain elevated, at 5%-6% globally, through 2021.

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