A new surge in COVID-19 cases has led to a reimposition of lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe, halting a robust recovery. East Asia has been relatively unscathed. Activity remains uneven. – With momentum fading, we are forecasting a weaker start to 2021, with full year GDP growth at 5.0% (down 30 basis points from previously); our 2022-23 GDP forecast is broadly unchanged.