Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
Global Refinancing: Brisk Issuance Pushes Speculative-Grade Maturity Peak Out To 2031
The peak maturity year for speculative-grade nonfinancial corporate debt has been pushed out to 2031 globally, in a rapid shift from 2029 in April and 2028 in January of this year.
A surge of new bond issuance in the first half of 2026, led by fundraising activity to support the buildout of AI and digital infrastructure, boosted global nonfinancial maturities in 2031, while steady refinancing activity reduced speculative-grade maturities through 2029.
While we view near-term maturities as increasingly manageable, potential challenges remain on the horizon--maturities of debt rated 'B-' and lower rise to $268.8 billion in 2028, much of which is concentrated in the U.S. and in the healthcare, high technology, and media and entertainment sectors.
This Week In Credit
Telecoms Weigh On Credit Trends (Oct.12, 2026)
Consumer products and capital goods led upgrades, with two each. Belgium-based construction materials manufacturer Titan S.A. was the only rising star. There have been 22 rising stars year to date, compared with 21 in the same time period in 2025.
There were three downgrades in the consumer products sector, and two each in the telecommunications and health care sectors. Balrog Acquisition Inc. joined risky credits after a downgrade on weak credit metrics. Risky credits remain below last year's level, 51 in 2026 compared with 69 year to date in 2025.
There were three defaults last week: Two in the telecommunications sector--Syniverse Corp. driven by a distressed exchange, and TalkTalk Holdings Ltd. driven by bankruptcy. The third was in the retail sector--Leslie's Poolmart Inc. driven by a bankruptcy filing.
This Month In Credit
Rating Trends Improve Despite Persistent Areas Of Stress
Positive rating momentum continued to build in August as upgrades outpaced downgrades for a third consecutive month, the longest such streak of 2026. Investment-grade issuers accounted for 42% of all upgrades in August, the second-highest share this year, indicating that rating improvements extended across the rating spectrum.
Against this backdrop, net bias improved to -3.4%, its strongest reading since August 2022. The recovery remained broad-based, driven by rising positive bias, falling negative bias, and notable improvements in the sovereign, aerospace and defense, and financial institutions sectors.
Global defaults remained elevated in August but below both last year and historical averages. At the same time, the U.S. share of defaults reached its highest level since 2020, while missed-payment defaults gained ground relative to distressed exchanges, pointing to increasing liquidity pressures among some of the weakest issuers.
Structured finance rating pressure eased considerably in August as downgrades fell by more than two-thirds from July. However, weakness remained firmly concentrated in CMBS, which recorded no upgrades for a fifth consecutive month and maintained a 100% downgrade ratio.
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