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COMMENTS

Non-U.S. Social Housing Providers Ratings History: October 2024

COMMENTS

Instant Insights: Key Takeaways From Our Research

COMMENTS

The Autumn Budget Kicks Off A Funding Regime Revision For U.K. Public Sector Entities

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Institutional Framework Assessment: U.K. Local Authorities

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U.K. Social Housing Providers' Financial Capacity Shrinks On Investment Needs


Non-U.S. Social Housing Providers Ratings History: October 2024

As of Sept. 30, 2024, S&P Global Ratings rated 60 social housing providers (SHPs) outside the U.S. Compared with the same period last year, the number of rated SHPs declined by three because we withdrew the ratings on one SHP in France and two SHPs in the U.K. at the issuers' requests. The U.K. SHPs merged into another U.K.-based SHP that we do not rate.

Over the past 12 months, we took 22 rating actions, 13 of which have been taken since Jan. 1, 2024. We expect to take significantly less rating actions in 2024 than in 2023 and 2022, when the number of annual rating actions exceeded 25 (see chart 1). As of Sept. 30, 2024, 17% of ratings had a negative outlook--compared with 24% on Dec. 31, 2023, and 33% on Dec. 31, 2022--and six ratings (10%) had a positive outlook, the highest number since 2014. The gradually reducing proportion of negative outlooks across the portfolio and the comparatively high number of positive outlooks supports our conviction that we have reached a turning point in the rating cycle.

Chart 1

image

Most negative rating actions were on SHPs in England because macroeconomic and regulatory pressures affect the financial performance of SHPs in England more than in other regions. This is due to constraints on rent increases, more limited grant funding, high cost inflation, and increasing investments in existing stock. This, coupled with continued efforts to deliver new homes--which require debt funding at rising interest rates--put pressure on English SHPs' debt metrics.

Outside the U.K., we lowered the ratings on two French SHPs, following a downgrade of France. This is because we consider that the rating on France constrains the creditworthiness of these SHPs' local authority owners. Swedish SHPs also suffer from cost inflation. We revised the outlook on one Swedish issuer to negative from stable in 2023.

We took positive rating actions--including one upgrade, four outlook revisions to positive from stable, and four outlook revisions to stable from negative (see table 1)--on SHPs that were in a relatively strong position when headwinds started to impair the sector, and that maintained or even improved their already strong credit metrics.

Table 1

Rating actions on non-U.S. social housing providers since Oct. 1, 2023
Country Entity Local currency rating/outlook as of Sept. 30, 2024 Local currency rating/outlook as of Oct. 1, 2023 Date of rating action
France

Grand Delta Habitat

A/Positive A/Stable Jan. 29, 2024

Maisons & Cites S.A. d'HLM

NR A+/Stable Jun. 28, 2024

SACVL

A+/Stable AA-/Negative Jun. 11, 2024

Toulouse Metropole Habitat O.P.H.

A/Stable A+/Negative Jun. 11, 2024
Germany

Berlinovo Immobilien Gesellschaft mbH

A-/Positive A-/Stable Sep. 27, 2024

Wohnungsbau Ludwigsburg GmbH

A-/Positive A-/Stable Apr. 30, 2024
Sweden

Forvaltnings AB Framtiden

AA-/Negative AA-/Stable Oct. 26, 2023
U.K.

Aster Group Ltd.

A/Stable A+/Negative Dec. 18, 2023

Chelmer Housing Partnership Ltd.

A-/Stable A-/Negative Oct. 26, 2023

Cross Keys Homes Ltd.

A+/Stable A/Positive May 21, 2024

East Midlands Housing Group Ltd.

A/Stable A+/Negative Jan. 24, 2024

Futures Housing Group

A+/Negative A+/Stable Oct. 11, 2023

Hyde Housing Association Ltd

A-/Stable A/Negative Jul. 10, 2024

Lincolnshire Housing Partnership Ltd.

A-/Stable A-/Negative Nov. 21, 2023

Local Space Ltd.

AA-/Stable AA-/Negative Jun. 20, 2024

London & Quadrant Housing Trust

BBB+/Stable A-/Negative Jun. 05, 2024

Metropolitan Thames Valley

A-/Stable A-/Negative Dec. 19, 2023

Notting Hill Genesis

A-/Negative A-/Stable Sep. 13, 2024

Octavia Housing

NR BBB/WatchPos Jul. 29, 2024

Plymouth Community Homes Ltd.

A+/Positive A+/Stable Jan. 23, 2024

Richmond Housing Partnership

A/Stable A+/Negative Jun. 21, 2024

Silva Homes Ltd.

NR A+/WatchNeg Oct. 23, 2023

Sovereign Housing Association Ltd.

A/Negative A+/Negative Nov. 22, 2023

Wrekin Housing Group Ltd.

A/Negative A/Stable Jul. 15, 2024

We expect English SHPs will continue to have relatively high levels of investments in existing stock, which, in our view, will crowd out debt-funded new homes development. While demand for new affordable homes remains strong in most regions, this is among the main levers used by SHPs that are trying to maintain solid credit metrics. We noted that SHPs that are flexible in their planning were able to scale back debt-funded developments quicker than others, thereby effectively mitigating some of the pressures.

While most long-term local currency issuer credit ratings remain concentrated in the 'A' category, there has been a steady transition from the upper end ('A+') to the lower end ('A-') (see chart 2). Even though outlooks have normalized since January 2022, a marginal negative bias persists. As of Sept. 30, 2024, 10 SHPs had negative outlooks, compared with six SHPs with positive outlooks (see chart 3).

Chart 2

image

Chart 3

image

Table 2

Ratings history of non-U.S. social housing providers as of Sept. 30, 2024
Country Entity Date Rating Outlook
Canada

Toronto Community Housing Corp.

Oct. 23, 2006 AA- Stable
France

Grand Delta Habitat

Jan. 29, 2024 A Positive
Jan. 23, 2023 A Stable
Jun. 15, 2022 A+ WatchNeg
Jan. 24, 2020 A+ Stable

SACVL

Jun. 11, 2024 A+ Stable
Jan. 18, 2023 AA- Negative
Jul. 07, 2021 A+ Stable
Jan. 20, 2014 A Stable

Toulouse Metropole Habitat O.P.H.

Jun. 11, 2024 A Stable
Aug. 05, 2022 A+ Negative
Sep. 28, 2021 A+ Stable
Germany

Berlinovo Immobilien Gesellschaft mbH

Sep. 27, 2024 A- Positive
Sep. 23, 2022 A- Stable

degewo AG

Sep. 27, 2022 A+ Positive
Oct. 20, 2021 A+ Stable

GBG Unternehmensgruppe GmbH

Nov. 29, 2022 A+ Negative
Nov. 23, 2020 A+ Stable

GEWOBA Aktiengesellschaft Wohnen und Bauen

Jul. 27, 2020 A Stable

Gewobag Wohnungsbau-Aktiengesellschaft Berlin

Dec. 18, 2020 A Stable
Dec. 17, 2019 A Negative
Sep. 30, 2019 A+ WatchNeg
Jun. 18, 2019 A+ Negative
Jul. 06, 2015 A+ Stable

HOWOGE Wohnungsbaugesellschaft mbH

Oct. 11, 2021 A Stable

Muenchner Wohnen GmbH (formerly Gewofag Holding GmbH)

Nov. 23, 2021 AA- Stable

Nassauische Heimstätte

Mar. 24, 2023 A+ Stable

Wohnungsbau Ludwigsburg

April 30, 2024 A- Positive
May 31, 2023 A- Stable
Netherlands

Stichting Stadgenoot

Nov. 24, 2017 AA Stable
Nov. 25, 2016 AA- Stable
Oct. 12, 2011 AA Stable
New Zealand

Kainga Ora-Homes and Communities

Feb. 21, 2021 AAA Stable
Feb. 27, 2020 AA+ Positive
Sweden

AB Stangastaden

Apr. 07, 2011 AA- Stable
Jun. 10, 2010 A+ Positive
Jun. 08, 2004 A+ Stable

Fastighets AB Forvaltaren

Oct. 25, 2018 AA- Stable
Oct. 27, 2017 AA- Negative
Sep. 01, 2011 AA- Stable
Nov. 25, 2009 A+ Stable
Jun. 30, 2009 A WatchPos
Sep. 07, 2004 A Stable

Forvaltnings AB Framtiden

Oct. 26, 2023 AA- Negative
Nov. 01, 2011 AA- Stable
Sep. 09, 2009 A+ Stable

Stockholms Kooperativa Bostadsforening

May 15, 2012 AA- Stable
U.K.

Accent Group Ltd.

Jul. 21, 2021 A Stable
Jul. 21, 2020 A+ Negative
Dec. 18, 2019 A+ Stable
Jul. 04, 2019 A+ Negative

Anchor Hanover Group

Mar. 23, 2021 A+ Stable

Apex Housing Association Ltd.

Nov. 23, 2018 A- Stable
Nov. 07, 2016 A Negative
Nov. 09, 2015 A+ Negative
Nov. 13, 2014 A+ Stable

Aster Group Ltd.

Dec. 18, 2023 A Stable
Dec. 8, 2021 A+ Negative
Dec. 18, 2019 A+ Stable
Dec. 17, 2018 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Dec. 14, 2015 AA- Stable
Nov. 25, 2014 AA- Positive
Nov. 25, 2013 AA- Stable

bpha Ltd.

Oct. 22, 2021 A+ Stable
Oct. 04, 2018 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Sep. 10, 2013 AA- Stable

Bromford Housing Group Ltd.

July 10, 2023 A+ Stable
Oct. 7, 2022 A+ Negative
Jan. 18, 2022 A+ Stable
Jan. 22, 2021 A+ Negative
Dec. 18, 2019 A+ Stable
Apr. 18, 2018 A+ Negative

Chelmer Housing Partnership

Oct. 26, 2023 A- Stable
Oct. 29, 2020 A- Negative
Nov. 22, 2019 A Negative
Nov. 14, 2018 A Stable
Nov. 16, 2017 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Nov. 07, 2013 AA- Stable

Clarion Housing Group Ltd.

Dec. 22, 2020 A- Stable
Jul. 23, 2019 A Negative
Jul. 25, 2018 A Stable

ClwydAlyn Housing Ltd.

May 24, 2017 A Stable

Cross Keys Homes Ltd.

May 21, 2024 A+ Stable
May 23, 2023 A Positive
May 6, 2022 A Stable
May 21, 2021 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
May 20, 2016 AA- Stable
Jul. 10, 2015 AA- Negative
Jul. 31, 2014 AA- Stable

East Midlands Housing Group Ltd.

Jan. 24, 2024 A Stable
Jan. 27, 2022 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Jan. 15, 2014 AA- Stable

Futures Housing Group

Oct. 11, 2023 A+ Negative
Oct. 22, 2019 A+ Stable
Jan. 25, 2019 A+ Negative

Gentoo Group

Jul. 13, 2023 A- Stable
Oct. 7, 2022 A- Negative
Jul. 19, 2022 A- Stable
Jul. 30, 2020 A- Negative
Dec. 18, 2019 A- Stable
Jul. 11, 2019 A- Negative
Feb. 23, 2018 BBB+ Positive

Guinness Partnership (The)

Jan. 27, 2020 A- Stable
Aug. 13, 2019 A Negative
Jul. 24, 2018 A Stable
Nov. 29, 2016 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Oct. 09, 2014 AA- Stable

Hexagon Housing Assn. Ltd.

Mar. 24, 2023 BBB+ Stable
Oct.7, 2022 A- Negative
Apr. 6, 2022 A- Stable

Home Group Ltd.

Dec. 14, 2018 A- Stable
Dec. 08, 2017 A Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A Stable
Jun. 19, 2015 A+ Negative
Jun. 17, 2014 A+ Stable
Oct. 02, 2013 A+ Negative
Jun. 30, 2009 A+ Stable
Jun. 06, 2008 A Negative
May 05, 2005 A Stable
May 21, 2004 A+ Negative
Jul. 24, 2003 A+ Stable

Housing 21

Aug. 15, 2023 A- Stable
Jul. 27, 2023 A- WatchNeg
Jul. 23, 2021 A- Stable
Jul. 24, 2019 A Stable
Jul. 11, 2018 A+ Negative
Oct. 25, 2017 A+ Stable

Housing Solutions

Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
May 13, 2016 AA- Stable

Hyde Housing Association Ltd.

Jul. 10, 2024 A- Stable
Jul. 17, 2023 A Negative
Oct. 7, 2022 A+ Negative
Jul. 22, 2021 A+ Stable
Jul. 24, 2018 A Stable
Oct. 31, 2016 A+ Negative
Aug. 05, 2016 A+ WatchNeg
Jul. 04, 2016 AA- Stable
Aug. 12, 2015 AA Stable

Incommunities Group Ltd.

Mar. 28, 2023 A Negative
Mar. 18, 2021 A+ Negative
Dec. 19, 2019 A+ Stable
Mar. 07, 2019 A+ Negative

Karbon Homes Ltd.

May 18, 2023 A Positive
May 27, 2020 A Stable
Oct. 31, 2018 A+ Negative

Lincolnshire Housing Partnership Ltd.

Nov. 21, 2023 A- Stable
Nov. 23, 2022 A- Negative
Nov. 22, 2021 A Negative
Mar. 04, 2021 A+ Negative
Dec. 18, 2019 A+ Stable
Mar. 01, 2018 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Jun. 13, 2014 AA- Stable

Link Group Ltd.

Nov. 26, 2020 A Stable
Dec. 13, 2018 A+ Negative
Jan. 23, 2018 A+ Stable

Local Space Ltd.

Jun. 20, 2024 AA- Stable
Jun. 24, 2022 AA- Negative
Jun. 26, 2020 AA- Stable
Feb. 22, 2019 AA- Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 AA- Stable
Feb. 23, 2016 AA Negative

London & Quadrant Housing Trust

Jun. 5, 2024 BBB+ Stable
Oct.7, 2022 A- Negative
Jul. 18, 2019 A- Stable
Jul. 25, 2018 A Negative
Oct. 31, 2016 A+ Negative
Aug. 05, 2016 AA- WatchNeg
Jul. 04, 2016 AA- Stable
Jun. 19, 2015 AA Negative
Jun. 17, 2014 AA Stable
Dec. 17, 2012 AA Negative
Nov. 27, 2012 AA Stable
Nov. 29, 2011 AA- Stable
Aug. 13, 2009 AA- Positive
Jun. 30, 2009 A+ WatchPos
Dec. 19, 2008 A+ Stable

Metropolitan Thames Valley

Dec. 19, 2023 A- Stable
Oct.7, 2022 A- Negative
Jul. 24, 2018 A- Stable
Oct. 31, 2016 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Sep. 15, 2015 AA- Stable

Notting Hill Genesis

Sep. 13, 2024 A- Negative
Jun. 05, 2019 A- Stable
Jul. 27, 2018 A Negative
Oct. 04, 2016 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 AA- Stable
Jun. 19, 2015 AA Negative
Oct. 20, 2014 AA Stable

Paradigm Housing Group Ltd.

May 10, 2021 A+ Stable

Paragon Asra Housing Ltd.

Jun. 27, 2023 BBB+ Stable
Oct.7, 2022 A- Negative
Jun. 23, 2022 A- Stable
Jun. 23, 2021 A Negative
Jun. 19, 2020 A Stable

Peabody Trust

Oct.7, 2022 A- Negative
Aug. 20, 2021 A- Stable
Jul. 08, 2019 A Stable

Places for People Group Ltd.

Jun. 20, 2018 A- Stable
Oct. 24, 2016 A Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Negative
Oct. 01, 2009 A+ Stable
Jun. 30, 2009 A WatchPos
Dec. 14, 2007 A Stable
Oct. 05, 2005 A Positive
Oct. 06, 2004 A Stable

Platform Housing Group Ltd.

Mar. 26, 2020 A+ Stable

Plymouth Community Homes Ltd.

Jan. 23, 2024 A+ Positive
Dec. 18, 2019 A+ Stable
Feb. 15, 2019 A+ Negative

Richmond Housing Partnership

Jun. 21, 2024 A Stable
Jun. 21, 2022 A+ Negative
May 15, 2019 A+ Stable
May 21, 2018 AA- Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 AA- Stable
Jun. 19, 2015 AA Negative
Jan. 09, 2015 AA Stable

Sanctuary Housing Assn.

Feb. 8, 2023 A Negative
Nov. 18, 2021 A Stable
Apr. 30, 2021 A+ Negative
Feb. 25, 2021 A+ WatchNeg
Nov. 19, 2020 A+ Negative
Dec. 19, 2019 A+ Stable
Nov. 15, 2018 A+ Negative
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Jun. 14, 2010 AA- Stable
Jun. 30, 2009 AA- Positive
May 28, 2008 A+ Stable
Oct. 18, 2004 A Stable

Sovereign Housing Association Ltd.

Nov. 22, 2023 A Negative
Oct. 24, 2022 A+ Negative
Oct. 28, 2020 A+ Stable
Oct. 24, 2018 A+ Negative
Oct. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Jul. 04, 2016 AA- Stable
Jun. 19, 2015 AA Negative
Jun. 17, 2014 AA Stable
Dec. 17, 2012 AA Negative
Oct. 24, 2012 AA Stable
Aug. 06, 2009 AA- Stable

Stonewater Ltd.

Feb. 6, 2023 A Negative
May 19, 2022 A+ Negative
Dec. 18, 2019 A+ Stable
Jul. 24, 2019 A+ Negative
Aug. 08, 2018 A+ Stable

Thrive Homes Ltd.

Mar. 24, 2023 A+ Stable
Mar. 28, 2022 A Positive
Mar. 18, 2020 A Stable
Mar. 29, 2019 A Negative
Mar. 02, 2018 A Stable
Jul. 04, 2016 A+ Stable
Mar. 06, 2014 AA- Stable

VIVID Housing Ltd.

Oct. 7, 2022 A Stable

Wheatley Housing Group Ltd.

May 22, 2019 A+ Stable
May 18, 2018 A+ Negative
May 26, 2017 A+ Stable
Oct. 03, 2016 A+ Negative
Jul. 05, 2016 A+ WatchNeg
Jun. 17, 2016 AA Stable
Jun. 04, 2015 AA- Positive
Nov. 07, 2014 AA- Stable

Wrekin Housing Group Ltd.

Jul. 15, 2024 A Negative
Oct. 07, 2019 A Stable
Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Related Criteria

Related Research

This report does not constitute a rating action.

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