Key Takeaways
- Monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, as long as it is accompanied by an orderly softening of the U.S. economy, is a positive for emerging markets (EMs)--especially ones with strong economic fundamentals, such as those in Southeast Asia.
- In several major EMs, particularly in Latin America, policy uncertainty could keep risk premiums elevated, which in turn could reduce the magnitude of capital flows those economies receive relative to past Fed easing cycles.
- Key downside risks for our EM growth outlook include the implications of the U.S. election on trade and fiscal policy, a more rapid-than-expected slowdown in the U.S., ongoing economic weakness in China, a further escalation of the Middle East conflict, and persistent uncertainty over domestic policies in several EMs.
S&P Global Ratings economists expect most emerging markets (EMs) in our sample to see faster growth in 2025 than 2024, but we anticipate significant divergence across EMs in the coming quarters. U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts will benefit EMs with strong growth fundamentals, such as those in Southeast Asia, as they will attract greater capital flows. However, in some Latin American economies where policy-related risks have risen, the associated increase in risk premiums due to lower policy visibility could reduce capital inflows, despite lower U.S. interest rates.
Chart 1
Table 1
| 2025 GDP growth forecast versus 2024 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Faster | Slower | Unchanged |
| Argentina | Brazil | Indonesia |
| Colombia | Chile | |
| Peru | Mexico | |
| India | China | |
| Philippines | Malaysia | |
| Thailand | Turkiye | |
| Vietnam | ||
| Hungary | ||
| Poland | ||
| Saudi Arabia | ||
| South Africa | ||
Emerging Market Countries
The EMs in our sample include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru in Latin America; China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam in Asia; and Hungary, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkiye in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA).
The Impact Of The Fed Easing Cycle Will Vary Across EMs
We expect the Fed to continue steadily easing monetary policy in the coming quarters, bringing its benchmark interest rate to 3.00%-3.25% by end-2025 (see "Economic Outlook U.S. Q4 2024: Growth And Rates Start Shifting To Neutral," Sept. 24, 2024). As a result, we lowered our 2024-2025 interest rate expectations for most major EMs, although our terminal interest rate assumptions remain unchanged.
Lower U.S. interest rates typically encourage capital flows to higher-yielding assets, such as those in EMs. Stronger economic growth in EMs also attracts capital inflows, as investors seek capital appreciation on top of greater interest rate returns.
We believe Southeast Asian economies are better positioned among EMs to attract capital inflows thanks to strong growth fundamentals. Most Southeast Asian central banks have not started normalizing monetary policy yet, but we expect them to start in the coming months given lower U.S. interest rates.
Chart 2
Conversely, higher perceived risks to growth typically discourage capital inflows, as investors demand a higher risk premium. This may be the case in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkiye, and South Africa given uncertainty over fiscal, economic, and institutional policies. If these risks linger, capital flows into these economies could remain relatively muted, despite lower U.S. rates.
Furthermore, if the U.S. economy slows more than we expect in the coming quarters, EMs with strong trade ties to the U.S., such as most of Latin America, would also see slower growth and lower capital flows.
Sustained Lower Oil Prices Would Help Most EMs
We believe lower oil prices are a positive for most EMs, boosting their external accounts and lowering inflation. The price of Brent crude oil dropped below $75 per barrel in early September, compared to an average of nearly $85 per barrel this year through the end of August.
While oil revenue provides fiscal benefits for some EMs through state-owned oil companies, most major EMs are net importers of energy. Sustained lower oil prices could also further accelerate monetary policy normalization across EMs. The potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, however, could send oil prices back up in the coming months.
Chart 3
The Electronics Industry Continues To Boost Several EMs In Southeast Asia
Malaysia and Vietnam are benefiting from electronics exports and electronics-related foreign direct investment. Industrial production for EMs in Southeast Asia is outperforming that of most other EMs. In Vietnam, for example, manufacturing output grew about 10% year over year in the first half of 2024. The sector can be cyclical, however, and momentum may swing if global demand weakens.
Chart 4
Forecast Update
Our real GDP growth forecasts for EMs excluding China remain 3.9% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025, following a 4.2% expansion in 2023. We made several adjustments to our 2024 GDP growth forecasts at the country level but only marginal changes to our 2025 projections (see table 2).
For Mexico, we lowered our 2024 GDP forecast due to weaker-than-expected growth in the first half of the year and lower private sector confidence related to a series of government reforms. In Thailand, we lowered our projection because fiscal spending has been weaker than we expected.
In Turkiye, the economy is decelerating slightly faster than we expected, in part due to a large drag from inventories during the second quarter, leading us to lower our 2024 growth forecast. Finally, in Hungary, we lowered our projection to reflect ongoing weakness in manufacturing activity and a drought that lowered agricultural production.
Table 2
| S&P Global Ratings GDP growth forecasts | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| --Change from June 2024 forecasts-- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EM countries | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | 2024f | 2025f | |||||||||||||
| Argentina | -2.0 | -9.9 | 10.4 | 5.3 | -1.6 | -3.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
| Brazil | 1.2 | -3.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | -0.2 | |||||||||||||
| Chile | 0.7 | -6.4 | 11.6 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | -0.4 | |||||||||||||
| Colombia | 3.2 | -7.2 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | -0.3 | |||||||||||||
| Mexico | -0.3 | -8.8 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | -0.6 | -0.2 | |||||||||||||
| Peru | 2.2 | -11.1 | 13.6 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | |||||||||||||
| China | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.2 | -0.3 | |||||||||||||
| India | 3.9 | -5.8 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
| Indonesia | 5.0 | -2.1 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
| Malaysia | 4.4 | -5.5 | 3.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||
| Philippines | 6.1 | -9.5 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.5 | -0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||
| Thailand | 2.1 | -6.1 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | -0.6 | -0.2 | |||||||||||||
| Vietnam | 7.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||
| Hungary | 4.9 | -4.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | -0.7 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | -0.5 | -0.1 | |||||||||||||
| Poland | 4.4 | -2.0 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||
| Turkiye | 0.8 | 1.7 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | -0.4 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 0.8 | -4.3 | 3.9 | 8.7 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |||||||||||||
| South Africa | 0.3 | -6.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||
| Aggregates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EM-18 | 4.0 | -1.8 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |||||||||||||
| EM-17 (excl. China) | 2.6 | -4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
| EM-Latam | 0.5 | -6.9 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.2 | -0.2 | |||||||||||||
| EM-SEAsia | 4.9 | -3.7 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
| EM-EMEA | 1.6 | -1.4 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | -0.2 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||
| For India, 2019 = FY 2019 / 20, 2020 = FY 2020 / 21,...,2027 = FY 2027 / 28. FY year begins on April of calendar year. Aggregates are weighted by purchasing power parity GDP (2017-2021 average) share of total. f--S&P Global Ratings forecasts. Latam--Latin America. SEAsia--Southeast Asia. EMEA--Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Regional summaries
Latin America: Our 2024 real GDP growth projection for the region increased by 20 basis points to 1.4% (or 2.3% excluding Argentina). However, we lowered our 2025 GDP projection by the same magnitude to 2.0% (or 1.8% excluding Argentina). The main changes to our country-specific GDP forecasts are for Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.
In Brazil, we now project GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024, and 1.8% in 2025. Growth was significantly stronger than we expected in the second quarter (1.4% growth from the previous quarter), and first-quarter GDP growth was revised upward (to 1.0% over the prior quarter). Fiscal stimulus, which is keeping household consumption high, partly explains this strong growth.
This has kept a positive output gap, by our estimate, of about 1.5% of GDP, increasing inflation expectations and prompting the Brazilian central bank to hike interest rates on Sept. 18. We expect interest rates to continue to rise into early 2025, until inflation expectations turn back toward the central bank's 3% target.
In Mexico, we lowered our GDP growth projections to 1.6% in 2024, and 1.5% in 2025. The shift from above-trend to below-trend growth happened earlier than we expected (in the first half of 2024, rather than the second half), due to softer manufacturing and services sector activity.
Mexico is grappling with uncertainty regarding the economic impact of a series of policies, including judicial reform, on private fixed investment; fiscal policy as the government goes through the 2025 budget approval process; energy policy; and the outcome of the U.S. election. Until these issues are resolved, we expect lower private fixed investment, at least in the next few quarters.
In Colombia, we increased our 2024 GDP growth projection to 1.7% (from 1.1%) but lowered it for 2025 to 2.5% (from 2.8%). The main reason for our upward revision for 2024 was stronger-than-expected consumption and net exports.
While investment is starting to slowly recover, we expect it to remain relatively weak in the coming quarters, due to uncertainty around the government's fiscal path and several reforms proposed by President Gustavo Petro. We believe growth in Colombia will remain relatively weak until investment recovers more markedly.
In Argentina, we continue to expect that the fiscal adjustment being implemented by President Javier Milei's administration will result in a 3.5% contraction in GDP growth this year. We believe the decline in GDP will be more acute in the first half of 2024, before gradually recovering in the second half and into 2025, when we project 3.3% growth.
In Chile, we maintain our forecast of 2.4% growth for 2024, driven by a moderate recovery in consumption and exports. However, we anticipate weaker fixed investment, especially in non-mining sectors, which underpins our expectation for GDP to moderate to 2.2% in 2025.
In Peru, we continue to expect a recovery of 2.7% in 2024, primarily fueled by improvements in the fishing, agriculture, and construction sectors. However, private investment will likely remain subdued due to ongoing political uncertainty, keeping growth flat at 2.7% in 2025, according to our projection.
EM EMEA: We now expect slightly lower growth for the region in 2024 than we did last quarter, mainly due to lower growth projections for Turkiye and Hungary.
In Turkiye, we now project 3.1% GDP growth this year (compared to 3.5% previously) and 2.3% in 2025. GDP continued to weaken in the second quarter of 2024, as high interest rates limited fixed investment. Wage increases in the first quarter are supporting household consumption, but we expect this to dissipate in the third quarter and likely drive a contraction in GDP in the quarter.
In Hungary, we now project 1.8% GDP growth in 2024 (down from 2.3%), due to weaker-than-expected second-quarter growth. Exports and investment dropped more than we envisioned, and a drought weighed on agricultural exports.
Public investment weakened due to fiscal consolidation efforts, and private investment fell due to persistent weakness in Germany's manufacturing sector, which has strong supply chain ties to Hungary's. Household consumption is improving, and we expect a more noticeable recovery in 2025, when we project 3.0% growth.
In Poland, we project 3.0% GDP growth in 2024, and 3.4% in 2025, following 0.2% in 2023. Second-quarter growth was in line with our expectations, accelerating compared to the first quarter.
In Saudia Arabia, non-oil economic activity has advanced, as we expected, and we project growth of 1.4% this year and 5.3% next year. However, risks to our 2025 growth outlook are firmly to the downside, as OPEC could prolong oil production cuts, especially if oil prices decline further.
We expect South Africa's growth to pick up to 0.9% in 2024, and 1.5% in 2025, from 0.6% in 2023. Electricity shortages continue to dissipate; however, logistics bottlenecks are constraining growth.
EM Southeast Asia: We forecast growth in the region averaging close to 5.0% in the next few years, up from 4.4% in 2023. We expect Southeast Asian EMs to benefit from resilient domestic demand and gradual upcoming monetary easing. Tourism is recovering, and electronics exports continue to improve--although both of these dynamics remain highly dependent on global growth.
We significantly raised our growth projections for Malaysia (now 5.1% in 2024, and 4.8% in 2025), where construction and the electronics sector are driving growth.
We substantially lowered our Thailand growth forecast (2.8% this year and 3.1% in 2025), because a planned fiscal stimulus will likely be diluted. Fiscal spending in Thailand has been weak this year due to a delayed budget, leading to weak first-half growth. Public spending is now recovering, but the boost to growth will be less than we previously forecast.
We see limited room for monetary easing in Malaysia and Thailand as interest rates are currently near the central banks' neutral estimates.
The Philippines set the ball rolling for monetary policy easing in the region, cutting by 25 basis points in August to 6.25%. We expect a further 50 basis points of easing this year.
We also expect Indonesia's central bank to cut interest rates by 50 basis points before the end of the year, to 5.75%.
Tighter monetary policy has not dampened demand in the region as much as markets feared. While there are still some lagged effects of tighter monetary policy in the pipeline, we now expect domestic activity to remain steady through the rest of the year. Domestic credit growth has stabilized, labor markets remain resilient, and high frequency indicators such as retail sales and payments point to stable growth ahead.
Inflation is controlled in the region, and we expect it to ease further over the next two quarters. Some economies are seeing higher food prices, but core inflation is contained. In addition, stable global oil and energy prices are keeping a lid on energy inflation.
Risks To Baseline Growth
There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the outcome of the U.S. election and its implications for trade and fiscal policy. More protectionist trade policies could lower trade volumes, raise inflation, and consequently put upward pressure on interest rates, thereby discouraging capital flows to EMs. More expansive-than-expected U.S. fiscal policy could also increase inflation and long-term U.S. Treasury yields, potentially tightening financial conditions in EMs.
While we currently expect U.S. growth to moderate as the labor market softens, a faster deceleration than we currently project is a significant downside risk to our growth outlook for EMs. Economies with strong trade ties with the U.S., such as most of Latin America, would see their exports to the U.S. weaken.
The high degree of uncertainty regarding the Chinese economy also poses a downside risk to our growth outlook for several EMs, especially those in Asia (see "Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q4 2024: Central Banks To Remain Cautious Despite U.S. Rate Relief," published Sept. 23, 2024). In addition, an escalation in the Middle East conflict could increase energy and shipping costs and directly weigh on activity for EMs in that region. Finally, domestic policy-related risks in some countries have risen, most notably in Mexico, and if unresolved could lower private fixed investment.
Appendix
Table 3
| Consumer price inflation (year average) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | Central bank inflation target | ||||||||||||
| Argentina | 53.5 | 42.0 | 48.4 | 72.4 | 133.5 | 235.0 | 75.0 | 52.5 | 40.0 | No target | ||||||||||||
| Brazil | 3.7 | 3.2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0% +/- 1.5% | ||||||||||||
| Chile | 2.3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Colombia | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Mexico | 3.6 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Peru | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0% - 3.0% | ||||||||||||
| China | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3.0% | ||||||||||||
| India | 4.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 4.0 +/- 2.0% | ||||||||||||
| Indonesia | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.5% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Malaysia | 0.7 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | No target | ||||||||||||
| Philippines | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Thailand | 0.7 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.0% +/- 1.5% | ||||||||||||
| Vietnam | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.0% | ||||||||||||
| Hungary | 3.4 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 15.3 | 17.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.0% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Poland | 2.1 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.5% +/- 1.0% | ||||||||||||
| Turkiye | 15.2 | 12.3 | 19.6 | 72.3 | 53.8 | 57.1 | 27.6 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 5.0% +/- 2.0% | ||||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | -2.1 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | No target | ||||||||||||
| South Africa | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.0% - 6.0% | ||||||||||||
| Median | 2.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | |||||||||||||
| f--S&P Global Ratings forecasts. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 4
| Policy rates (end-year) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | |||||||||||
| Argentina | 55.00 | 38.00 | 38.00 | 75.00 | 100.00 | 40.00 | 30.00 | 25.00 | 25.00 | |||||||||||
| Brazil | 4.50 | 2.00 | 9.25 | 13.75 | 11.75 | 11.25 | 10.25 | 9.00 | 9.00 | |||||||||||
| Chile | 1.75 | 0.50 | 4.00 | 11.25 | 8.25 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | |||||||||||
| Colombia | 4.25 | 1.75 | 3.00 | 12.00 | 13.00 | 9.50 | 7.50 | 7.00 | 7.00 | |||||||||||
| Mexico | 7.25 | 4.25 | 5.50 | 10.50 | 11.25 | 10.00 | 7.50 | 7.00 | 7.00 | |||||||||||
| Peru | 2.25 | 0.25 | 2.50 | 7.50 | 6.75 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | |||||||||||
| China | 3.25 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | |||||||||||
| India | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | |||||||||||
| Indonesia | 5.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 5.50 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | |||||||||||
| Malaysia | 2.96 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | |||||||||||
| Philippines | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 5.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | |||||||||||
| Thailand | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | |||||||||||
| Hungary | 0.90 | 0.60 | 2.40 | 13.00 | 10.50 | 6.25 | 4.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| Poland | 1.50 | 0.10 | 1.75 | 7.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| Turkiye | 12.00 | 17.00 | 14.00 | 9.00 | 45.00 | 50.00 | 35.00 | 20.00 | 15.00 | |||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 2.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 5.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | |||||||||||
| South Africa | 6.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 7.00 | 8.25 | 7.50 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 6.00 | |||||||||||
| Note: For China, the one-year medium-term lending facility rate is shown. f--S&P Global Ratings forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 5
| Unemployment rate (year average) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | |||||||||||
| Argentina | 9.8 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 7.9 | |||||||||||
| Brazil | 12.1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 8.1 | |||||||||||
| Chile | 7.2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.6 | |||||||||||
| Colombia | 10.9 | 16.7 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 9.9 | |||||||||||
| Mexico | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | |||||||||||
| Peru | 6.6 | 12.8 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | |||||||||||
| China | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||||||||||
| Indonesia | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | |||||||||||
| Malaysia | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |||||||||||
| Philippines | 5.1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | |||||||||||
| Thailand | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||||||||
| Hungary | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | |||||||||||
| Poland | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | |||||||||||
| Turkiye | 13.7 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.5 | |||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 5.6 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | |||||||||||
| South Africa | 28.7 | 29.2 | 34.3 | 33.5 | 32.5 | 33.3 | 31.0 | 30.0 | 30.8 | |||||||||||
| f--S&P Global Ratings forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 6
| Exchange rates versus US$ (year average) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | ||||||||||||
| Argentina | 48.25 | 70.64 | 95.09 | 130.71 | 296.52 | 930.00 | 1,450.00 | 2,150.00 | 2,750.00 | |||||||||||
| Brazil | 3.94 | 5.16 | 5.39 | 5.16 | 5.00 | 5.30 | 5.47 | 5.52 | 5.55 | |||||||||||
| Chile | 703.00 | 792.00 | 759.00 | 873.00 | 840.00 | 935.00 | 933.00 | 938.00 | 940.00 | |||||||||||
| Colombia | 3,281.00 | 3,694.00 | 3,742.00 | 4,255.00 | 4,327.00 | 4,010.00 | 4,218.00 | 4,238.00 | 4,250.00 | |||||||||||
| Mexico | 19.26 | 21.49 | 20.28 | 20.12 | 17.74 | 18.15 | 19.64 | 19.88 | 20.00 | |||||||||||
| Peru | 3.34 | 3.49 | 3.88 | 3.83 | 3.74 | 3.75 | 3.79 | 3.85 | 3.85 | |||||||||||
| China | 6.91 | 6.90 | 6.45 | 6.73 | 7.08 | 7.13 | 6.96 | 6.87 | 6.79 | |||||||||||
| India | 70.90 | 74.22 | 74.50 | 79.99 | 82.79 | 83.81 | 84.52 | 85.99 | 87.38 | |||||||||||
| Indonesia | 14,150.00 | 14,593.00 | 14,307.00 | 14,853.00 | 15,237.00 | 15,892.00 | 15,563.00 | 15,663.00 | 15,700.00 | |||||||||||
| Malaysia | 4.14 | 4.20 | 4.14 | 4.40 | 4.59 | 4.49 | 4.25 | 4.23 | 4.21 | |||||||||||
| Philippines | 51.80 | 49.62 | 49.26 | 54.48 | 55.64 | 56.61 | 54.66 | 53.09 | 51.54 | |||||||||||
| Thailand | 31.05 | 31.29 | 31.99 | 35.08 | 35.12 | 35.05 | 33.33 | 33.13 | 32.95 | |||||||||||
| Hungary | 290.70 | 308.00 | 303.14 | 375.08 | 353.09 | 357.62 | 347.03 | 345.57 | 348.46 | |||||||||||
| Poland | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 3.92 | 3.72 | 3.75 | 3.75 | |||||||||||
| Turkiye | 5.70 | 7.02 | 8.86 | 16.44 | 24.73 | 32.95 | 38.13 | 42.88 | 48.19 | |||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | |||||||||||
| South Africa | 14.50 | 16.50 | 14.79 | 16.38 | 18.45 | 18.24 | 17.25 | 17.66 | 18.00 | |||||||||||
| f--S&P Global Ratings forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Table 7
| Exchange rates versus US$ (end-year) | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2026f | 2027f | ||||||||||||
| Argentina | 59.90 | 84.15 | 102.75 | 177.13 | 808.50 | 1,100.00 | 1,800.00 | 2,500.00 | 3,000.00 | |||||||||||
| Brazil | 4.03 | 5.20 | 5.58 | 5.16 | 4.84 | 5.45 | 5.50 | 5.55 | 5.55 | |||||||||||
| Chile | 745.00 | 711.00 | 850.00 | 861.00 | 885.00 | 930.00 | 935.00 | 940.00 | 940.00 | |||||||||||
| Colombia | 3,277.00 | 3,433.00 | 3,981.00 | 4,812.00 | 3,822.00 | 4,200.00 | 4,225.00 | 4,250.00 | 4,250.00 | |||||||||||
| Mexico | 18.85 | 19.95 | 20.58 | 19.40 | 16.92 | 19.50 | 19.75 | 20.00 | 20.00 | |||||||||||
| Peru | 3.31 | 3.62 | 3.97 | 3.81 | 3.71 | 3.75 | 3.81 | 3.85 | 3.85 | |||||||||||
| China | 6.99 | 6.52 | 6.39 | 6.90 | 7.10 | 7.02 | 6.93 | 6.84 | 6.75 | |||||||||||
| India | 72.41 | 72.88 | 75.21 | 81.71 | 83.04 | 84.00 | 85.00 | 86.50 | 88.00 | |||||||||||
| Indonesia | 14,067.00 | 14,386.00 | 14,261.00 | 15,592.00 | 15,439.00 | 15,500.00 | 15,600.00 | 15,700.00 | 15,700.00 | |||||||||||
| Malaysia | 4.17 | 4.11 | 4.18 | 4.41 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 4.24 | 4.22 | 4.20 | |||||||||||
| Philippines | 51.00 | 48.27 | 50.46 | 57.40 | 56.09 | 55.50 | 54.16 | 52.45 | 51.00 | |||||||||||
| Thailand | 30.28 | 30.61 | 33.37 | 34.80 | 34.20 | 33.40 | 33.20 | 33.00 | 32.90 | |||||||||||
| Hungary | 300.04 | 302.54 | 318.65 | 373.08 | 355.17 | 351.00 | 348.00 | 345.10 | 352.60 | |||||||||||
| Poland | 3.87 | 3.78 | 4.04 | 4.28 | 4.15 | 3.78 | 3.70 | 3.74 | 3.78 | |||||||||||
| Turkiye | 5.79 | 7.86 | 11.14 | 18.61 | 30.00 | 35.00 | 42.00 | 47.00 | 52.00 | |||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | |||||||||||
| South Africa | 14.73 | 15.69 | 15.39 | 17.68 | 18.75 | 17.20 | 17.42 | 17.83 | 18.00 | |||||||||||
| f--S&P Global Ratings forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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This report does not constitute a rating action.
| Chief Economist, Emerging Markets: | Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, New York + 1 (212) 438 2228; elijah.oliveros@spglobal.com |
| Contributor: | Harumi Hasegawa, Boston +1 (617) 335 7594; harumi.hasegawa@spglobal.com |
| Senior Economist, Asia-Pacific: | Vishrut Rana, Singapore + 65 6216 1008; vishrut.rana@spglobal.com |
| Economist, EM EMEA: | Valerijs Rezvijs, London (44) 79-2965-1386; valerijs.rezvijs@spglobal.com |
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