S&P Global Ratings' infrastructure default tally rose to nine in 2023, up from three in 2022 (see table 1). The default rate rose to 0.6% in 2023, up from 0.2% in 2022. Investment-grade defaults remain rare, with none in 2023 for the third year in a row and the 14th of the last 15 years. Investment-grade defaults have averaged 0.6 per year since 1981, compared to three speculative-grade defaults per year. The speculative-grade default rate rose to 2.5% in 2023, up from 0.8% in 2022.

Historically, speculative-grade issues have defaulted more frequently than investment-grade issuers, reflected in annual average default rates of 1.9% and 0.1%, respectively. 2001 was one major outlier, when there were 10 investment-grade defaults compared to only one speculative-grade default, because of the failure of Enron Corp. and challenges in the unregulated utilities sector.

Table 1

All infrastructure default summary
Year	Total defaults*	Rated defaults	Investment-grade defaults	Speculative-grade defaults	Default rate (%)	Investment-grade default rate (%)	Speculative-grade default rate (%)
1981	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1982	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1983	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1984	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1985	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1986	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1987	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1988	5	5	0	5	1.63	0.00	11.36
1989	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1990	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1991	3	3	2	1	1.03	0.78	2.94
1992	5	5	0	5	1.61	0.00	12.82
1993	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1994	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1995	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1996	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1997	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1998	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
1999	1	1	0	1	0.17	0.00	1.27
2000	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
2001	12	11	10	1	1.48	1.54	1.04
2002	20	19	7	12	2.28	0.97	10.43
2003	17	13	1	12	1.58	0.15	7.14
2004	2	2	0	2	0.21	0.00	1.03
2005	10	10	2	8	1.02	0.26	3.90
2006	1	1	1	0	0.10	0.12	0.00
2007	2	2	0	2	0.19	0.00	0.90
2008	4	4	1	3	0.36	0.12	1.27
2009	7	7	0	7	0.62	0.00	2.95
2010	5	5	0	5	0.44	0.00	1.91
2011	8	7	0	7	0.59	0.00	2.52
2012	8	8	0	8	0.67	0.00	2.87
2013	6	6	0	6	0.49	0.00	2.15
2014	7	7	0	7	0.53	0.00	2.30
2015	1	1	0	1	0.07	0.00	0.30
2016	6	6	0	6	0.42	0.00	1.71
2017	7	5	0	5	0.34	0.00	1.38
2018	6	5	0	5	0.34	0.00	1.37
2019	3	3	2	1	0.20	0.18	0.28
2020	10	9	0	9	0.61	0.00	2.43
2021	1	1	0	1	0.07	0.00	0.26
2022	3	3	0	3	0.21	0.00	0.82
2023	9	8	0	8	0.60	0.00	2.46
*Includes defaults that were observed in the same year as the initial rating. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Upgrades in 2023 rose to 95 (52 investment-grade and 43 speculative-grade) from 70 (21 investment-grade and 49 speculative-grade) in 2022, while downgrades rose very slightly to 94 (47 investment-grade and 47 speculative-grade) from 91 (55 investment-grade and 36 speculative-grade, see chart 2). These trends reflect largely unchanged credit quality.

In 2023, transportation saw the most upgrades with 27, followed by oil and gas with 25. Meanwhile, utilities led downgrades with 27, followed by power with 21 (see chart 3).

The infrastructure sector peaked at 1,488 ratings in 2018, from a low of 290 in 1990 (see chart 4). Most ratings are investment-grade, at 74% at the start of 2023, down from 88% at the start of 2001.

As expected, the lowest rating category, 'CCC/C', usually sees the most proportionate default activity. At the start of 2023, there were 26 infrastructure entities rated 'CCC/C' by S&P Global Ratings, lower than the 33 at the start of 2022. Such a small population of ratings can skew results slightly.

The largest sector in terms of infrastructure ratings has always been utilities, with oil and gas becoming the second-largest sector in 2011 (see chart 5). Social infrastructure has grown rapidly to almost 100 ratings at the start of 2023, from 28 in 2007. Infrastructure issues can mature, similarly to structured finance in some respects, so populations can fluctuate over time.

This study covers infrastructure ratings in utilities, oil and gas (mostly midstream issuers), transportation, power, social infrastructure, and other industries covered under our corporate and project finance methodologies. The study also includes a small number of infrastructure issues rated under U.S. public finance and international public finance methodologies.

Part of our analysis on issue ratings is a high frequency of transitions to NR (not rated); issues tend to be paid off and, thus, move to not rated. This stands in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.

Regional Trends

The U.S. and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) have the most infrastructure ratings by region (see chart 6) and the most speculative-grade ratings, with 147 and 81, respectively. Asia-Pacific has the highest share of investment-grade ratings at 84% and Latin America has the lowest at 47%.

Of the 162 public infrastructure issue defaults since 1981, 72% have been from issuers based in the U.S. region (which includes tax havens Bermuda and the Cayman Islands). Defaults outside the U.S. have exceeded U.S. defaults just five times annually in that time period. The first occurred in 2002, when the Argentine financial crisis led to 10 defaults. The others were in 2004 and 2006-2008, when there were no U.S. defaults and modest default activity outside the U.S.

Subsector Default Trends

By subsector, utilities account for the most rated infrastructure defaults since 1981 (47%), followed by power (22%) and other (17%, see chart 7). Examining the rating distribution by subsector over time (see chart 5), power and other ("other" as a category can be confidential ratings or those that are otherwise not clearly placed) defaults appear overrepresented--power accounts for 8% and other for 9% of all historical infrastructure issue defaults captured in this study.

In 2023, there were seven power-related defaults and one each for oil and gas and utilities. (One power-related issuer defaulted, was rerated, and defaulted again in 2023.)

Overall default rates have been consistently low since 2015. Before that, there were periods of credit stress, especially in 2001 and 2009-2014 (see chart 8).

We subdivide infrastructure ratings into corporate issues and project finance issues. There are far more corporate issues, comprising all utilities and most oil and gas. Project finance includes all social projects as well as most power issues (see chart 9).

Historical Default Cycles

In general, infrastructure's relative peak default rates aligned with those of nonfinancial corporates during the 2001 recession. However, the sector made it through the global financial crisis relatively unscathed, with a peak default rate under 1%, compared with 6% for nonfinancial corporates (see chart 10).

On a trailing-12-month basis, the overall infrastructure default rate was higher than the nonfinancial default rate only from December 2005 through November 2006. This was largely because of the Dec. 21, 2005, bankruptcy filing of Calpine Corp. (a corporate infrastructure power developer and energy merchant company), which covered five defaulting instruments in our dataset.

The lower infrastructure default rate over time reflects, in part, a consistently lower proportion of issues rated in the 'B' and 'CCC/C' categories compared with nonfinancial corporates.

Cumulative default rates are a historical summary of rating performance. For example, cumulative default rates for the power subsegment reflect the increased default rate amid the energy crisis in the early 2000s. Since the end of that period, many ratings have been repositioned, and any analytical lessons have been incorporated into our power ratings.

The distribution of ratings within a rating category influences the weighted averages (e.g., within the broader 'BBB' rating category, the share of 'BBB-' versus 'BBB' versus 'BBB+'; see tables 2-4). Also, the sample sizes of infrastructure subsegments vary.

Table 2

Cumulative default rates, infrastructure and nonfinancial corporate (1981-2023)
	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	5	10	15
All infrastructure
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05
A	0.08	0.47	0.72	0.83
BBB	0.12	1.05	1.92	2.60
BB	0.25	2.93	4.37	4.75
B	1.77	7.79	10.40	10.58
CCC/C	13.82	27.81	30.28	30.28
Investment-grade	0.09	0.72	1.25	1.62
Speculative-grade	1.83	6.47	8.36	8.65
All rated	0.45	1.87	2.66	3.02
Nonfinancial corporate
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.37
AA	0.00	0.09	0.31	0.54
A	0.03	0.28	1.03	1.70
BBB	0.12	1.31	2.95	4.07
BB	0.57	6.35	11.70	14.66
B	3.06	16.54	23.19	26.43
CCC/C	27.11	49.01	52.97	54.91
Investment-grade	0.07	0.77	1.87	2.66
Speculative-grade	3.75	14.75	20.68	23.69
All rated	1.95	7.78	11.15	12.89
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 3

Cumulative default rates, corporate infrastructure and project finance (1981-2023)
	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	5	10	15
Utilities
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06
A	0.10	0.52	0.75	0.79
BBB	0.16	1.03	1.76	2.32
BB	0.06	2.17	2.75	2.95
B	2.22	9.79	10.48	10.48
CCC/C	18.39	34.57	39.08	39.08
Investment-grade	0.12	0.69	1.12	1.39
Speculative-grade	2.34	7.08	8.06	8.19
All rated	0.38	1.44	1.94	2.19
Corporate infrastructure ex-utilities
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.06	0.33	0.41	0.65
BBB	0.09	1.29	3.07	4.49
BB	0.40	2.44	3.58	3.58
B	1.07	6.20	9.27	9.77
CCC/C	10.88	21.51	23.19	23.19
Investment-grade	0.06	0.77	1.68	2.40
Speculative-grade	1.39	5.22	7.20	7.41
All rated	0.46	2.09	3.29	3.90
Project finance
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.41	1.21	1.85
BBB	0.06	0.87	1.26	1.71
BB	0.31	4.42	7.35	8.33
B	2.50	8.60	12.50	12.50
CCC/C	11.18	25.72	25.72	25.72
Investment-grade	0.05	0.75	1.21	1.68
Speculative-grade	1.84	7.40	10.41	11.01
All rated	0.66	3.01	4.34	4.85
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 4

Average cumulative default rates (1981- 2023) (%)
	-- Time horizon (years) --
All infrastructure	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
Investment-grade	0.09	0.26	0.42	0.58	0.72	0.84	0.95	1.07	1.15	1.25	1.34	1.42	1.49	1.56	1.62
Speculative-grade	1.83	3.32	4.56	5.68	6.47	7.06	7.49	7.86	8.19	8.36	8.45	8.54	8.57	8.61	8.65
All rated	0.45	0.88	1.26	1.61	1.87	2.09	2.26	2.43	2.55	2.66	2.75	2.84	2.90	2.96	3.02
Project finance
Investment-grade	0.05	0.20	0.37	0.57	0.75	0.85	0.96	1.04	1.08	1.21	1.41	1.57	1.68	1.68	1.68
Speculative-grade	1.84	3.44	4.98	6.27	7.40	8.30	8.92	9.58	10.15	10.41	10.51	10.61	10.73	10.86	11.01
All rated	0.66	1.31	1.93	2.51	3.01	3.38	3.67	3.94	4.16	4.34	4.50	4.64	4.76	4.80	4.85
Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities
Investment-grade	0.06	0.23	0.42	0.61	0.77	0.96	1.14	1.34	1.50	1.68	1.81	1.95	2.10	2.26	2.40
Speculative-grade	1.39	2.62	3.58	4.48	5.22	5.81	6.29	6.63	6.94	7.20	7.30	7.41	7.41	7.41	7.41
All rated	0.46	0.95	1.37	1.76	2.09	2.39	2.66	2.90	3.10	3.29	3.41	3.55	3.66	3.79	3.90
Utilities
Investment-grade	0.12	0.28	0.43	0.57	0.69	0.79	0.89	1.00	1.06	1.12	1.19	1.24	1.29	1.34	1.39
Speculative-grade	2.34	4.04	5.33	6.53	7.08	7.44	7.66	7.82	8.00	8.06	8.13	8.19	8.19	8.19	8.19
All rated	0.38	0.72	1.01	1.27	1.44	1.57	1.69	1.80	1.87	1.94	2.00	2.06	2.10	2.14	2.19
Oil and gas
Investment-grade	0.03	0.10	0.21	0.32	0.40	0.48	0.57	0.67	0.72	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77
Speculative-grade	0.75	1.48	2.09	2.62	3.11	3.50	3.67	3.76	3.87	3.99	3.99	3.99	3.99	3.99	3.99
All rated	0.31	0.62	0.92	1.18	1.40	1.59	1.71	1.81	1.87	1.95	1.95	1.95	1.95	1.95	1.95
Power
Investment-grade	0.20	0.85	1.54	2.19	2.72	3.38	4.00	4.66	5.25	5.89	6.46	7.08	7.76	8.52	9.16
Speculative-grade	2.16	4.08	5.51	6.97	8.30	9.46	10.29	10.97	11.45	11.82	12.04	12.28	12.28	12.28	12.28
All rated	1.17	2.45	3.50	4.54	5.46	6.35	7.06	7.73	8.27	8.80	9.23	9.70	10.12	10.60	11.01
Transportation
Investment-grade	0.00	0.09	0.20	0.31	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43
Speculative-grade	1.35	2.40	3.34	3.87	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16
All rated	0.25	0.52	0.78	0.96	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11
Social infrastructure
Investment-grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.46
Speculative-grade	0.47	0.98	1.57	2.22	2.95	3.77	4.68	5.75	7.05	7.05	7.05	7.05	7.05	7.05	7.05
All rated	0.07	0.15	0.23	0.32	0.42	0.53	0.65	0.79	0.95	1.13	1.35	1.35	1.35	1.35	1.35
Other
Investment-grade	0.08	0.21	0.34	0.53	0.72	0.88	1.04	1.15	1.21	1.33	1.52	1.73	1.87	1.87	1.87
Speculative-grade	2.94	5.30	7.69	9.60	11.03	12.09	13.03	13.98	14.81	15.23	15.37	15.52	15.68	15.85	16.04
All rated	0.78	1.48	2.20	2.85	3.38	3.79	4.17	4.53	4.82	5.04	5.22	5.40	5.55	5.60	5.66
Nonfinancial corporate
Investment-grade	0.07	0.19	0.34	0.54	0.77	1.00	1.23	1.44	1.66	1.87	2.06	2.22	2.36	2.50	2.66
Speculative-grade	3.75	7.26	10.28	12.73	14.75	16.37	17.70	18.81	19.79	20.68	21.41	22.04	22.64	23.17	23.69
All rated	1.95	3.78	5.37	6.68	7.78	8.69	9.44	10.07	10.63	11.15	11.58	11.94	12.28	12.58	12.89
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Among defaulting issues, there is generally a positive correlation between initial ratings and time to default--meaning higher initial ratings often have longer times to default (see chart 11). The shortest time to default in our dataset was for a GenOn Energy Inc. issue, which defaulted in June 2017, just 26 days after we initially rated it 'CCC+'. Conversely, the longest time to default was for a Public Service Co. of New Hampshire issue, which defaulted in January 1988, nearly 26 years after receiving an initial rating of 'A'.

We define the marginal default rate as the percentage of rated projects that default within a given number of years. On average, the marginal default rate for infrastructure issues peaks in year one and then steadily declines (see table 5).

Speculative-grade ratings tend to have high marginal default rates in earlier years before declining, while investment-grade ratings tend to have persistently low marginal default rates. While infrastructure marginal default rates tend to be lower, the trends in marginal default rates are similar for nonfinancial corporates and consistent with results found in our global corporate default study.

Table 5

Marginal default rates: All infrastructure and nonfinancial corporate
	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
All infrastructure
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.05
BBB	0.12	0.25	0.25	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.19	0.21	0.14	0.16
BB	0.25	0.46	0.796	0.771	0.68	0.48	0.31	0.34	0.24	0.13
B	1.77	2.11	1.54	1.55	1.08	0.90	0.56	0.46	0.58	0.36
CCC/C	13.82	8.07	4.59	3.31	1.21	0.96	1.37	0.74	0.40	0.00
Investment-grade	0.09	0.16	0.16	0.15	0.14	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.08	0.10
Speculative-grade	1.83	1.52	1.28	1.17	0.84	0.64	0.45	0.40	0.36	0.19
All rated	0.45	0.44	0.38	0.35	0.27	0.22	0.18	0.17	0.13	0.11
Nonfinancial corporate
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.07	0.07
AA	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.05
A	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.08	0.10	0.12	0.16	0.15	0.16	0.16
BBB	0.12	0.21	0.26	0.34	0.39	0.38	0.33	0.33	0.32	0.31
BB	0.57	1.32	1.552	1.569	1.50	1.39	1.24	1.18	1.07	0.96
B	3.06	4.34	4.06	3.45	2.84	2.32	1.87	1.48	1.32	1.24
CCC/C	27.11	14.52	9.26	5.72	4.35	2.05	2.13	1.29	1.31	1.23
Investment-grade	0.07	0.12	0.15	0.20	0.23	0.24	0.23	0.22	0.22	0.21
Speculative-grade	3.75	3.65	3.25	2.73	2.31	1.90	1.60	1.34	1.20	1.11
All rated	1.95	1.87	1.65	1.39	1.18	0.98	0.82	0.70	0.63	0.58
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Historical Rating Action Cycles

As in most sectors, historical rating actions in infrastructure are more often negative than positive (see chart 12). Downgrades outnumbered upgrades 3,687 to 2,746 from 1981 through 2023. By year, downgrades exceeded upgrades in 14 of those 43 years (see table 6).

Table 6

Infrastructure rating movement total (1981-2023)
	Upgrades	Downgrades	Difference	Downgrades/upgrades
Power	220	414	-194	1.88
Transportation	186	278	-92	1.49
Utilities	1600	1992	-392	1.25
Oil and gas	477	525	-48	1.10
Social infrastructure	71	110	-39	1.55
Other	192	368	-176	1.92
Total	2746	3687	-941	1.34
Does not include defaults. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

The number of annual downgrades peaked in 2020 during the pandemic-related global recession at 238--slightly more than the previous high of 214 in 2002.

Infrastructure downgrades accelerated in the early 2000s amid a U.S. recession and as utilities experienced credit stress during a period of deregulation in the U.S. From 2000-2004, infrastructure downgrades plus defaults totaled 747, compared with 229 upgrades.

Infrastructure upgrades peaked in 2007 at 155. The second-highest total was 141 upgrades in 2017. The period with the highest number of upgrades minus downgrades was 2006-2008. This followed the period with the lowest number of upgrades minus downgrades, 1998-2005.

Table 7

Project finance and corporate infrastructure rating movement
	--Upgrades--		--Downgrades--		--Defaults--
	Number	Avg. annual (%)	Number	Avg. annual (%)	Number	Avg. annual (%)
Utilities	1,600	8.15	1,992	10.15	74	0.38
Project finance	407	6.55	694	11.17	41	0.66
Corporate infrastructure ex-utilties	739	8.13	1,001	11.01	42	0.46
All infrastructure	2,746	7.86	3,687	10.55	157	0.45
Avg.--Average. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Rating Transitions

Transition tables detail ratings changes over time. Each cell in the table represents the weighted average percentage of ratings that maintain a rating or transition to a different rating during a given time horizon. The rows indicate the rating at the start of the period, and the columns show how those ratings are distributed at the end of the period (see table 8).

The highest values in the transition matrix are along the diagonal, indicating that a high proportion of these issue ratings do not change during a given period. The proportion of ratings that have transitioned higher are to the left of the diagonal, and the proportion of ratings that have transitioned lower are to the right.

The 'A' category is typically the most stable, while the 'AA' category is generally the most likely to transition to a lower rating category (excluding default). The smaller sample sizes of issues in the 'AAA' and 'AA' categories, compared with the 'A' category, contributes to this to some extent.

We withdraw a large percentage of ratings (not rated, or NR) over time (see table 8). The high frequency of issue ratings withdrawn for redemption, maturity, or any other reason makes longer time horizons of up to 20 years impractical for infrastructure.

The high frequency of transitions to NR is a result of our analysis of issue ratings; issues tend to be paid off and, thus, move to not rated. This is in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.

The high percentage of infrastructure ratings that we have withdrawn, as indicated in the NR column, obscures the data and our conclusions to some extent. For example, after five years, we've withdrawn over 38% of infrastructure issue ratings in the 'BBB' category, compared with just over 22% of nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings in the same category (see table 9).

There is no indication of whether the withdrawn ratings would have remained in the same category, moved higher, or moved lower. The result is less precise comparisons between infrastructure issue ratings and nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings.

Table 8

Infrastructure average transition rates (1981-2023) (%)
Rating	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	84.59	6.77	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.65
AA	0.39	83.69	8.05	0.53	0.14	0.07	0.00	0.00	7.13
A	0.03	0.99	85.78	5.43	0.12	0.04	0.05	0.08	7.46
BBB	0.00	0.01	2.44	85.73	2.59	0.22	0.24	0.12	8.64
BB	0.00	0.00	0.11	6.53	72.96	6.87	0.94	0.25	12.33
B	0.00	0.05	0.14	0.91	8.65	67.80	6.88	1.77	13.81
CCC/C	0.51	0.00	0.51	0.00	2.22	10.75	54.78	13.82	17.41
Three years
AAA	58.14	14.15	1.74	1.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	24.42
AA	0.84	59.41	16.56	2.01	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.73
A	0.06	2.12	63.64	11.59	0.59	0.22	0.09	0.27	21.43
BBB	0.01	0.04	5.83	63.42	4.29	1.10	0.60	0.65	24.07
BB	0.03	0.00	0.20	12.44	40.61	8.82	2.17	1.50	34.23
B	0.10	0.00	0.30	3.32	14.58	30.79	7.98	5.11	37.83
CCC/C	0.38	0.00	0.00	1.14	3.42	11.01	16.51	25.05	42.50
Five years
AAA	37.72	15.77	1.80	4.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	39.92
AA	0.92	41.60	19.36	3.11	0.61	0.00	0.00	0.00	34.39
A	0.09	2.39	48.08	13.43	0.73	0.31	0.13	0.51	34.33
BBB	0.02	0.05	7.19	47.21	4.38	1.39	0.72	1.14	37.89
BB	0.06	0.00	0.46	13.53	23.66	5.96	1.94	2.95	51.45
B	0.00	0.00	0.39	4.70	12.30	13.30	4.36	7.43	57.52
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.92	1.50	7.91	5.13	30.34	53.21
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 9

Nonfinancial corporate average transition rates (1981-2023) (%)
Rating	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	87.18	8.24	0.85	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.59
AA	0.51	87.27	7.56	0.64	0.09	0.11	0.00	0.00	3.82
A	0.03	1.11	88.48	6.08	0.31	0.15	0.02	0.03	3.79
BBB	0.00	0.04	2.68	87.74	3.46	0.43	0.09	0.12	5.44
BB	0.01	0.01	0.09	4.24	78.65	6.85	0.50	0.57	9.08
B	0.00	0.02	0.06	0.12	4.27	74.81	5.05	3.06	12.61
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.15	0.35	13.00	44.62	27.11	14.68
Three years
AAA	66.69	19.21	3.54	0.28	0.35	0.07	0.00	0.00	9.85
AA	1.17	66.82	18.12	2.33	0.52	0.28	0.01	0.03	10.72
A	0.05	2.62	69.82	14.43	1.20	0.52	0.07	0.11	11.19
BBB	0.01	0.12	6.65	68.88	7.14	1.55	0.23	0.61	14.81
BB	0.01	0.03	0.34	9.61	50.12	11.82	1.18	3.47	23.40
B	0.00	0.02	0.14	0.51	8.40	42.11	5.57	11.31	31.94
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.43	1.36	15.36	10.34	43.64	28.78
Five years
AAA	52.82	24.55	5.50	1.14	0.57	0.07	0.00	0.00	15.35
AA	1.46	50.93	24.65	4.27	0.79	0.48	0.03	0.09	17.30
A	0.04	3.38	56.53	18.95	2.00	0.83	0.11	0.29	17.85
BBB	0.01	0.18	8.70	56.58	8.17	2.17	0.31	1.39	22.49
BB	0.01	0.04	0.67	11.39	35.01	11.79	1.25	6.59	33.24
B	0.01	0.01	0.15	1.04	8.61	25.29	3.50	17.51	43.87
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.64	2.33	10.76	2.52	49.95	33.74
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 10

Infrastructure average transition rates (1981-2023) (%)
Rating	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	C	D	NR
One year
AAA	84.59	4.51	2.07	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.65
AA+	3.06	73.89	6.94	5.00	0.28	0.00	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.28
AA	0.00	2.66	79.33	5.81	3.25	1.18	0.39	0.10	0.00	0.20	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.69
AA-	0.00	0.00	3.81	76.45	9.97	1.87	0.35	0.07	0.62	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.65
A+	0.06	0.00	0.17	4.66	71.70	10.97	2.61	1.08	0.06	0.17	0.06	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	8.18
A	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.21	4.31	77.20	7.51	2.27	0.75	0.18	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.12	7.18
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.44	4.32	78.85	7.03	1.23	0.39	0.09	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.07	7.39
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.77	5.45	75.09	8.45	0.95	0.18	0.18	0.02	0.18	0.07	0.02	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.16	8.36
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.11	1.13	6.46	75.56	6.36	0.82	0.36	0.41	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.09	8.45
BBB-	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.25	1.05	7.46	75.26	3.79	1.30	0.71	0.06	0.15	0.08	0.13	0.10	0.02	0.27	0.02	0.13	9.12
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.25	2.37	10.62	62.21	6.12	3.37	1.56	1.06	0.06	0.00	0.37	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.00	11.62
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.07	0.42	2.26	9.41	63.01	6.29	2.40	2.33	0.71	0.28	0.14	0.07	0.21	0.00	0.64	11.67
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.22	2.22	2.82	7.64	57.97	9.04	2.45	1.85	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.30	0.07	0.15	13.86
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.41	0.93	1.45	1.65	10.75	52.84	10.86	4.14	1.34	0.62	0.52	0.31	0.10	0.83	12.93
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.28	0.55	0.55	1.53	4.16	12.90	45.35	11.65	3.74	1.53	0.14	0.28	0.14	1.66	15.26
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.77	1.35	2.50	14.04	48.27	10.58	2.88	2.12	0.19	0.00	3.65	13.46
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.82	0.82	1.64	2.87	13.11	43.44	3.69	8.61	1.64	0.82	4.51	18.03
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.70	1.40	0.00	2.80	5.59	4.90	37.76	13.29	6.99	0.70	9.79	15.38
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.41	0.00	0.00	3.41	2.27	12.50	25.00	12.50	3.41	18.18	19.32
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.47	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.23	1.23	1.23	2.47	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.70	0.00	29.63	2.47	39.51	16.05
C	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.67	0.00	3.33	0.00	0.00	3.33	0.00	30.00	26.67	20.00
Three years
AAA	58.14	9.50	4.26	0.39	1.74	0.00	0.00	1.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	24.42
AA+	4.66	41.40	10.79	10.79	2.33	0.87	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.28
AA	0.61	4.39	50.15	11.54	4.09	4.70	2.66	1.12	0.20	0.51	1.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.90
AA-	0.07	0.36	6.32	47.23	16.12	4.19	2.98	0.57	1.56	0.36	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.17
A+	0.06	0.00	1.29	7.08	38.55	17.18	6.83	2.65	1.35	0.31	0.49	0.31	0.00	0.06	0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18	23.46
A	0.13	0.00	0.29	1.22	8.41	46.61	14.19	5.26	2.09	0.48	0.10	0.29	0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.35	20.29
A-	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.07	1.06	8.87	50.00	12.97	3.41	0.78	0.47	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.19	0.02	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.02	0.24	21.49
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	2.04	11.21	43.88	13.65	3.44	0.50	0.23	0.18	0.33	0.18	0.20	0.28	0.05	0.00	0.13	0.05	0.63	22.84
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.53	3.40	11.95	45.19	10.62	1.56	0.92	0.78	0.43	0.23	0.25	0.22	0.08	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.49	23.11
BBB-	0.02	0.07	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.20	0.68	3.81	13.21	43.59	4.81	2.15	1.56	0.66	0.54	0.45	0.25	0.43	0.14	0.16	0.02	0.86	26.29
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.07	0.89	4.93	14.87	27.83	8.70	4.25	3.02	1.23	0.69	0.82	0.34	0.48	0.27	0.27	0.41	30.77
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.31	0.31	1.40	6.84	10.49	27.89	8.00	3.26	2.80	1.79	0.31	0.39	0.31	0.39	0.00	1.63	33.88
BB-	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.42	1.19	4.84	4.33	7.22	22.51	7.56	3.65	3.48	1.02	0.93	0.68	0.25	0.08	2.72	38.91
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.11	1.68	2.35	4.14	4.14	10.75	18.37	9.41	5.15	2.80	1.23	1.12	0.56	0.22	3.58	34.15
B	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.15	0.15	1.08	2.00	2.46	3.07	8.14	8.29	12.90	7.68	3.38	1.69	0.77	0.61	0.00	4.76	42.55
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.63	0.21	0.42	1.27	0.63	3.17	3.59	4.23	9.94	15.22	7.61	1.69	3.81	0.63	0.21	8.46	38.27
CCC+	0.97	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.48	0.97	3.38	0.48	4.83	9.18	10.63	0.97	2.42	0.00	0.48	12.08	53.14
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75	0.75	0.00	0.75	3.01	0.75	4.51	7.52	0.75	8.27	6.02	8.27	2.26	25.56	30.83
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.90	3.90	1.30	3.90	10.39	5.19	2.60	22.08	45.45
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.50	1.25	0.00	2.50	0.00	1.25	3.75	0.00	2.50	0.00	1.25	1.25	52.50	31.25
C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.33	46.67	43.33
Five years
AAA	37.72	9.18	4.39	2.20	1.80	0.00	0.00	3.19	1.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	39.92
AA+	3.45	24.45	6.90	13.17	4.70	1.57	1.57	0.31	0.00	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	43.57
AA	0.96	3.74	31.41	11.97	4.70	5.98	4.38	1.07	0.96	0.85	1.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	32.80
AA-	0.30	0.15	5.25	31.71	14.63	5.62	4.80	2.14	1.26	0.44	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33
A+	0.13	0.20	1.95	5.57	21.14	15.57	10.07	3.69	2.01	0.40	0.34	0.47	0.07	0.13	0.47	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	37.45
A	0.14	0.00	0.59	1.70	8.86	30.38	13.90	6.57	2.92	0.63	0.35	0.35	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.10	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.66	32.60
A-	0.03	0.00	0.10	0.29	1.59	9.96	33.23	13.02	4.44	1.31	0.55	0.05	0.05	0.21	0.03	0.03	0.08	0.05	0.00	0.08	0.03	0.47	34.41
BBB+	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.40	2.99	12.10	27.93	12.90	3.72	0.79	0.23	0.54	0.28	0.42	0.23	0.20	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.10	36.09
BBB	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.63	4.82	12.62	28.75	10.40	1.53	1.12	0.65	0.45	0.39	0.45	0.22	0.11	0.04	0.06	0.04	0.89	36.42
BBB-	0.00	0.10	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.61	0.91	5.47	12.90	25.97	3.88	2.26	1.91	0.86	0.54	0.49	0.52	0.27	0.42	0.20	0.00	1.47	41.13
BB+	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.31	0.00	0.46	0.85	7.72	12.11	14.51	5.32	5.17	2.39	1.00	0.69	0.54	0.69	0.23	0.08	0.08	2.55	45.14
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	1.04	2.86	8.06	7.54	13.95	5.81	2.69	1.13	1.73	0.09	0.26	0.26	0.43	0.00	2.69	51.30
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.30	1.29	0.99	3.87	4.46	3.97	9.33	4.46	2.08	2.28	1.39	0.79	0.40	0.40	0.40	3.77	59.72
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.26	0.26	1.40	4.34	4.21	4.60	6.64	7.66	4.21	4.21	1.02	0.38	0.51	0.38	0.38	5.24	54.15
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.34	0.17	2.37	2.37	2.54	4.06	4.40	3.38	3.89	3.72	1.18	0.51	1.52	0.00	0.17	7.28	61.93
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.24	0.24	0.48	1.20	1.69	2.89	3.61	1.45	4.82	5.06	5.30	0.96	2.17	0.24	0.24	11.81	57.59
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.80	0.00	0.00	1.20	0.00	5.39	5.39	1.80	0.60	0.00	1.20	0.00	15.57	67.07
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.40	1.60	4.00	4.00	0.80	1.60	2.40	3.20	0.00	31.20	46.40
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.29	2.86	1.43	2.86	1.43	0.00	30.00	55.71
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.56	0.00	1.28	3.85	1.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	53.85	34.62
C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	46.43
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Focusing on the 'BBB' category, which is generally the largest infrastructure rating category, allows for comparison among infrastructure subsectors (see table 11). Social infrastructure ratings have historically been the most likely to remain in the 'BBB' category across one-year, three-year, and five-year time horizons--in part due to the greater revenue stability conferred by availability payments, which are more common in this subsector.

Table 11

'BBB' category transition rates by subsector (1981-2023)
										--% transition--
Rating	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR	Higher	Lower	Total
One year
Oil and gas	0.00	0.00	0.97	87.48	2.92	0.18	0.00	0.00	8.45	0.97	3.10	4.07
Utilities	0.00	0.00	3.41	84.59	2.04	0.11	0.24	0.16	9.45	3.41	2.55	5.96
Power	0.00	0.00	0.74	88.48	3.86	0.52	0.52	0.22	5.65	0.74	5.13	5.87
social	0.00	0.26	1.80	90.76	3.21	0.39	0.13	0.00	3.47	2.05	3.72	5.78
Transportation	0.00	0.00	1.94	87.41	2.58	0.40	0.40	0.00	7.26	1.94	3.39	5.33
Other	0.00	0.00	0.83	80.76	4.60	0.59	0.24	0.24	12.75	0.83	5.67	6.49
Three years
Oil and gas	0.00	0.00	1.80	69.69	5.36	1.41	0.15	0.15	21.44	1.80	7.07	8.87
Utilities	0.00	0.00	8.20	61.02	3.10	0.59	0.40	0.69	26.00	8.20	4.78	12.98
Power	0.00	0.00	1.09	69.70	6.01	3.01	1.00	1.75	17.45	1.09	11.77	12.85
social	0.00	0.72	4.93	74.35	8.26	1.01	0.43	0.00	10.29	5.65	9.71	15.36
Transportation	0.00	0.00	5.20	64.68	5.58	0.65	1.12	0.37	22.40	5.20	7.71	12.92
Other	0.12	0.00	2.10	50.00	5.20	2.97	2.48	0.87	36.26	2.23	11.51	13.74
Five years
Oil and gas	0.00	0.00	2.32	56.91	5.58	2.32	0.61	0.28	31.99	2.32	8.78	11.10
Utilities	0.00	0.00	9.95	44.26	2.83	0.61	0.51	1.11	40.73	9.95	5.05	15.00
Power	0.00	0.00	0.85	54.69	6.92	3.79	1.42	3.32	29.00	0.85	15.45	16.30
social	0.00	1.02	7.45	62.61	11.68	1.18	0.68	0.00	15.40	8.46	13.54	22.00
Transportation	0.00	0.00	6.60	46.75	6.38	2.20	0.55	0.88	36.63	6.60	10.01	16.61
Other	0.39	0.00	2.45	30.24	4.38	2.32	2.19	1.67	56.37	2.83	10.55	13.38
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Gini Coefficients

The Gini coefficient--a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--is a measure of the relative ability of ratings to differentiate default risk. Infrastructure Lorenz curves vary in their similarity to ideal curves, and Gini coefficients fall within a wide range. Over one-year, three-year, and five-year horizons, the coefficients for infrastructure as a whole--at 78%, 69%, and 63%, respectively--show a strong relationship between lower ratings and the propensity to default (see table 12).

Table 12

All infrastructure Gini coefficients
One year	78.06
Three years	68.67
Five years	63.26
Three year
Social infrastructure	99.75
Transportation	82.75
Utilities	64.62
Power	46.25
Oil and gas	66.28
Other	79.08
Canada	99.53
Asia-Pacific	64.42
U.S. and tax havens	63.63
EMEA	65.98
Latin America	62.00
EMEA--Europe, Middle East, and Africa. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

However, the relationship varies across infrastructure subsectors. To compare, we use a three-year horizon for the Gini coefficient because it is the longest period in which a sizable number of issues remain outstanding (either prior to redemption or any other reason for rating withdrawals).

Social infrastructure has the highest three-year Gini coefficient at nearly 99.8%--extremely high. The transportation subsector has a high coefficient of 83% and the other subsector has one of 79%. The utilities and oil and gas subsectors have moderately high coefficients at 65% and 66%, respectively. Meanwhile, the power subsector has a low coefficient of 46%--indicating a historically high frequency of defaults among higher-rated issues.

While the differences are not as extreme, the coefficients also vary across regions. Canada has an extremely high coefficient at nearly 100%. Meanwhile, EMEA, Asia-Pacific, the U.S. and tax havens, and Latin America each have moderately high coefficients at 66%, 64%, 64%, and 62%, respectively.

Points along the Lorenz curve represent different ratings, starting with issues in the 'CCC/C' category on the far left of the x-axis (see chart 13). The first point indicates about 33% of transitions to default were from issues rated 'CCC/C'.

At higher ratings, the number of defaults generally decreases, yielding points that continue to climb as one moves right along the rating scale. The Lorenz curve generally turns sharply to the right at the investment-grade ratings because of the low proportion of defaults from investment-grade issues.

Table 13

Infrastructure three-year Lorenz curve values
	Cumulative proportion of defaults (%)	Cumulative proportion of ratings (%)
AAA	100.00	100.00
AA+	100.00	98.40
AA	100.00	97.33
AA-	100.00	94.29
A+	100.00	89.91
A	99.26	84.87
A-	96.55	75.19
BBB+	94.09	62.06
BBB	87.93	49.69
BBB-	81.77	33.80
BB+	72.41	20.09
BB	70.94	15.56
BB-	65.76	11.56
B+	57.88	7.90
B	50.00	5.13
B-	42.36	3.11
CCC/C	32.51	1.64
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Appendix I: Definitions And Methodology

Infrastructure investment is broadly defined as investment exposure (debt or equity) to real assets vital to a country's economic development and prosperity that provide essential services for the orderly operations of an economy, such as transportation networks, health and education facilities, communication networks, and water and energy distribution systems. Key risks are in design, permitting, construction, operations, volume, and maintenance, with debt repaid predominantly by cash generated from the assets themselves.

Characteristics of infrastructure entities vary, and the variety of risks managed by infrastructure investments is broad (such as greenfield/brownfield, contracted/regulated/merchant, and availability/demand risk). Characteristics sought by investors in infrastructure include longevity, strong competitive advantages, high barriers to entry and monopolistic characteristics, low volatility, differentiation between return and volatility, and inflation-linked or predictable cash flow.

Our fourth annual infrastructure default and rating transition study continues the analysis of the inaugural study and expands on and supersedes project finance studies we've published in previous years. The data encompasses project finance ratings from past reports and adds ratings from other segments within infrastructure. This report presents a broader perspective and larger dataset than its predecessors, allowing for more conclusions and increasing the robustness of the findings while enabling comparisons between infrastructure issuer types and subsectors.

Our long-term infrastructure default and rating transition study uses long-term ratings on individual project finance debt issues. For projects with multiple tranches of debt, we used a single rating for all pari passu tranches to mitigate the risk of overweighting such projects in the sample set. For projects with senior and subordinated debt with different ratings, we counted each class separately and collapsed multiple tranches of pari passu debt into a single rating.

An infrastructure rating reflects S&P Global Ratings' opinion of the obligor's ability and willingness to meet its financial commitments on time, and it generally indicates our opinion of the likelihood of default regarding the specific rated issuance. Unlike issuer credit ratings, project finance ratings consider the value of collateral and recovery in determining the rating.

We analyzed the rating histories of corporate infrastructure and project finance credits that S&P Global Ratings first rated between Dec. 31, 1980, and Dec. 31, 2023. We categorized these ratings into five subsectors: utilities, power, oil and gas, social infrastructure, and transportation. Other obligors are grouped in a separate category.

The analysis excludes ratings based on the guarantee of another entity and obligations wrapped by a monoline insurer, unless the obligations bear an S&P Underlying Rating (SPUR), in which case we included the SPUR. Corporate issuers, structured finance vehicles, public-sector issuers, and sovereign issuers are the subjects of separate default and transition studies, so we have excluded them from this study. The infrastructure data makes up a sufficiently large set, although individual subsectors are small, so that a few defaults or rating transitions can have a sizable effect on portfolio performance within those groups.

Our ongoing enhancement of the database used to generate this study could lead to outcomes that differ to some degree from those reported in previous studies. However, this poses no continuity problem because each study reports statistics back to Dec. 31, 1980. Therefore, each annual default study is self-contained and effectively supersedes all previous versions.

Withdrawn ratings

When a rating is withdrawn, it is changed to not rated (NR). Issue ratings are withdrawn when an obligation is repaid or at the request of the issuer. S&P Global Ratings also withdraws ratings when sufficient information to maintain a rating is unavailable. If we withdrew a rating after the issue defaulted, we counted it as a default.

Definition of default

A default is assumed to take place on the date S&P Global Ratings revised the rating to 'D', which could occur when a payment on the issue is missed, a distressed exchange offer is completed, or the issuer filed for or was forced into bankruptcy. When an issue defaults, it is not uncommon for S&P Global Ratings to subsequently withdraw the 'D' rating.

For the purposes of this study, if an issue defaults, we end its rating history at 'D'. For those instances when an issue defaulted and was subsequently upgraded, we entered the rating history after the default into the calculations as a new rating.

Many practitioners use statistics from this default study to estimate "probability of default" and "probability of rating transition." It is important to note that S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings do not imply a specific probability of default.

Static pool methodology

We conduct our default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issues by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. We assign all issues included in the study to one or more static pools. When an issue defaults, we assign that default back to all of the static pools to which the issue belonged.

We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates. This is to ensure that default rates account for rating migration and to allow for default rates to be calculated across multiperiod time horizons.

The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of issues in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Jan. 1, 1981, to avoid continuity problems.

Because static pools only include issues with active ratings as of the beginning date of a given pool, we exclude those with withdrawn ratings, as well as those that have defaulted, from subsequent static pools. If the rating on an issue is withdrawn after the start date of a particular static pool and the issue subsequently defaults, we will include it in that static pool as a default and categorize it in the rating category of which it was a member at that time.

For instance, the 1983 static pool consists of all issues rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1983. Adding those issues first rated in 1983 to the surviving members of the 1983 static pool forms the 1984 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1984 static pool through the ratings on these issues as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1984. We used the same method to form static pools for 1985-2023.

Consider the following example: An issue is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1996 and is downgraded to 'B' in 1998. This is followed by a rating withdrawal in 2000 and a default in 2003. We would include this hypothetical issue in the 1997 and 1998 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1999 and 2000 pools with the 'B' rating. It would not be part of the 1996 pool because it was not rated as of the first day of that year, and it would not be included in any pool after the last day of 2000 because the rating had been withdrawn by then. Yet each of the four pools that we include the company in (1997-2000) would record its 2003 default at the appropriate time horizon.

Transition matrices

Transition rates compare issue ratings at the beginning of a period with the ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. We counted an issue that remained rated for more than one year as many times as the number of years it was rated.

For instance, an issue continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If we withdrew the rating on the issue in the middle of 1991, we would include it in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, we would include it in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.

All 1982 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2023, had 41 one-year transitions, while companies first rated on Dec. 31, 2021, had only one. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to not rated.

In these calculations, we only consider the ratings on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if we rated an issue 'A' on Jan. 1, 2014, and downgraded it to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded it to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this instrument would be included only in the percentage of issues that began the year as 'A' and that ended the year as 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons. If an issue defaults or if we withdraw the rating in the middle of the year, then we would consider to to be rated 'D' or not rated as of Dec. 31 of that particular year.

Multiyear transitions

We also calculated multiyear transitions for periods of two to five years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1981-2021 with the ratings at the end of the years 1983-2023.

Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions. We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices just described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issue-weighted averages.

Rating modifiers

We use rating modifiers (plus and minus signs) to calculate upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, throughout this study. However, some transition tables may use full rating categories for practical reasons: The use of a rating category suggests that transitions to 'AA-' from 'AA', for example, or to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+' are not considered to be rating transitions because the rating remained within the rating category.

Issue-weighted statistics

We calculate the averages that appear in this study based on the number of issues, rather than the dollar amounts, affected by defaults or rating changes. Although dollar amounts provide information about the portion of the market affected by defaults or rating changes, we believe issue-weighted averages are more useful measures of the performance of ratings.

Average cumulative default rate calculation

The cumulative default rates in this study average the experience of all static pools by first calculating marginal default rates for each possible time horizon and for each static pool, weight-averaging the marginal default rates conditional on survival (survivors being nondefaulters), and accumulating the average conditional marginal default rates.

We calculated conditional default rates by dividing the number of issues in a static pool that default at a specific time horizon by the number of issues that survived (did not default) to that point in time. Weights are based on the number of issues in each static pool. Cumulative default rates are one minus the product of the proportion of survivors (nondefaulters).

Appendix II: Additional Exhibits

Table 14

Infrastructure rating distribution, Jan. 1, 2024
	--Number of ratings--
	Utilities	Oil and gas	Transportation	Power	Social infrastructure	Other
AAA	1	0	1	0	0	3
AA	12	2	7	2	0	18
A	178	10	43	8	30	72
BBB	278	89	85	73	45	23
BB	43	53	27	54	17	7
B	16	36	9	19	3	7
CCC/C	5	5	3	8	2	0
Total	533	195	175	164	97	130
Speculative-grade	64	94	39	81	22	14
	--Percent of ratings--
	Utilities	Oil and gas	Transportation	Power	Social infrastructure	Other
AAA	0.19	N/A	0.57	N/A	N/A	2.31
AA	2.25	1.03	4.00	1.22	N/A	13.85
A	33.40	5.13	24.57	4.88	30.93	55.38
BBB	52.16	45.64	48.57	44.51	46.39	17.69
BB	8.07	27.18	15.43	32.93	17.53	5.38
B	3.00	18.46	5.14	11.59	3.09	5.38
CCC/C	0.94	2.56	1.71	4.88	2.06	N/A
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Speculative-grade	12.01	48.21	22.29	49.39	22.68	10.77
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights

Table 15

Average transition rates for all infrastructure (1981-2023)
	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	84.59	6.77	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.65
AA	0.39	83.69	8.05	0.53	0.14	0.07	0.00	0.00	7.13
A	0.03	0.99	85.78	5.43	0.12	0.04	0.05	0.08	7.46
BBB	0.00	0.01	2.44	85.73	2.59	0.22	0.24	0.12	8.64
BB	0.00	0.00	0.11	6.53	72.96	6.87	0.94	0.25	12.33
B	0.00	0.05	0.14	0.91	8.65	67.80	6.88	1.77	13.81
CCC/C	0.51	0.00	0.51	0.00	2.22	10.75	54.78	13.82	17.41
Three year
AAA	58.14	14.15	1.74	1.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	24.42
AA	0.84	59.41	16.56	2.01	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.73
A	0.06	2.12	63.64	11.59	0.59	0.22	0.09	0.27	21.43
BBB	0.01	0.04	5.83	63.42	4.29	1.10	0.60	0.65	24.07
BB	0.03	0.00	0.20	12.44	40.61	8.82	2.17	1.50	34.23
B	0.10	0.00	0.30	3.32	14.58	30.79	7.98	5.11	37.83
CCC/C	0.38	0.00	0.00	1.14	3.42	11.01	16.51	25.05	42.50
Five year
AAA	37.72	15.77	1.80	4.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	39.92
AA	0.92	41.60	19.36	3.11	0.61	0.00	0.00	0.00	34.39
A	0.09	2.39	48.08	13.43	0.73	0.31	0.13	0.51	34.33
BBB	0.02	0.05	7.19	47.21	4.38	1.39	0.72	1.14	37.89
BB	0.06	0.00	0.46	13.53	23.66	5.96	1.94	2.95	51.45
B	0.00	0.00	0.39	4.70	12.30	13.30	4.36	7.43	57.52
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.92	1.50	7.91	5.13	30.34	53.21
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 16

Average transition rates for corporate infrastructure excluding utilities (1981-2023)
	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	87.50	5.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.91
AA	0.97	87.08	5.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.24
A	0.06	1.19	87.27	4.92	0.17	0.11	0.00	0.06	6.23
BBB	0.00	0.00	1.07	86.24	3.04	0.36	0.18	0.09	9.01
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.00	73.37	5.74	0.26	0.40	14.24
B	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.68	7.59	70.53	6.23	1.07	13.72
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.59	12.44	57.51	10.88	16.58
Three year
AAA	66.90	14.83	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.28
AA	2.29	65.90	13.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.19
A	0.07	2.87	65.01	12.27	0.72	0.46	0.00	0.20	18.41
BBB	0.00	0.00	2.16	65.29	5.31	1.66	0.53	0.73	24.31
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.26	40.72	6.85	1.14	1.29	38.74
B	0.00	0.00	0.32	2.26	13.32	33.73	8.38	3.76	38.24
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.61	1.83	13.41	17.07	19.51	47.56
Five year
AAA	47.65	20.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	31.77
AA	2.63	50.31	17.02	1.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.91
A	0.08	3.77	47.52	15.89	1.36	0.38	0.23	0.38	30.42
BBB	0.00	0.00	2.47	50.59	5.44	2.55	0.80	1.41	36.75
BB	0.00	0.00	0.09	12.26	22.84	4.27	1.11	2.32	57.10
B	0.00	0.00	0.50	3.23	12.05	14.16	4.35	5.47	60.25
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.41	1.41	7.75	7.04	21.83	60.56
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 17

Average transition rates for utilities (1981-2023)
	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	82.19	8.68	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.13
AA	0.11	82.06	9.35	0.77	0.22	0.11	0.00	0.00	7.39
A	0.03	1.06	84.81	5.67	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.10	8.13
BBB	0.00	0.00	3.41	84.59	2.04	0.11	0.24	0.16	9.45
BB	0.00	0.00	0.32	10.19	70.15	5.52	1.17	0.06	12.59
B	0.00	0.00	0.37	2.04	12.41	61.67	6.67	2.22	14.63
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	1.35	0.00	0.45	13.00	53.81	18.39	13.00
Three year
AAA	48.85	13.82	4.15	3.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	29.49
AA	0.17	56.43	18.55	2.90	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	21.28
A	0.06	2.18	61.81	11.96	0.56	0.15	0.12	0.30	22.86
BBB	0.00	0.00	8.20	61.02	3.10	0.59	0.40	0.69	26.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.55	18.03	37.16	6.26	1.86	1.10	35.03
B	0.00	0.00	0.59	8.48	17.16	23.08	6.90	7.10	36.69
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.38	2.38	10.00	16.67	31.43	37.14
Five year
AAA	26.51	10.23	4.19	11.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	47.91
AA	0.17	37.75	21.07	3.94	0.91	0.00	0.00	0.00	36.15
A	0.08	2.34	46.23	13.47	0.61	0.24	0.11	0.55	36.36
BBB	0.00	0.00	9.95	44.26	2.83	0.61	0.51	1.11	40.73
BB	0.00	0.00	1.11	18.64	19.75	4.73	1.04	2.29	52.44
B	0.00	0.00	0.64	11.56	12.85	5.57	4.07	10.28	55.03
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.55	0.51	8.12	5.08	36.55	46.19
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 18

Average transition rates for project finance (1981-2023)
	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	44.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	55.56
AA	0.00	80.95	4.76	1.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.70
A	0.00	0.11	90.47	4.55	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.66
BBB	0.00	0.06	1.31	88.21	3.59	0.38	0.29	0.06	6.09
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.83	75.80	9.80	1.45	0.31	9.80
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.31	7.19	68.59	8.13	2.50	13.28
CCC/C	1.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.12	5.88	52.94	11.18	24.12
Three year
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
AA	0.00	54.10	0.00	4.92	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.98
A	0.00	0.13	76.29	7.19	0.63	0.38	0.00	0.13	15.26
BBB	0.04	0.18	3.27	67.97	6.43	1.88	1.21	0.46	18.56
BB	0.09	0.00	0.00	6.75	44.81	14.27	3.72	2.25	28.11
B	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.52	14.34	32.82	8.29	5.53	38.17
CCC/C	1.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.54	9.80	15.69	22.22	44.44
Five year
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
AA	0.00	37.93	0.00	5.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	56.90
A	0.15	0.15	66.27	8.17	0.59	0.74	0.15	0.45	23.33
BBB	0.12	0.24	4.34	52.01	7.65	2.39	1.23	0.96	31.06
BB	0.19	0.00	0.00	8.16	29.64	9.33	3.98	4.47	44.22
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.77	12.19	18.96	4.64	7.93	55.51
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.10	7.75	3.10	30.23	55.81
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 19

Average transition rates for oil and gas (1981-2023)
	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00
AA	0.00	81.82	13.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55
A	0.14	0.27	85.58	6.67	0.54	0.14	0.00	0.14	6.53
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.97	87.48	2.92	0.18	0.00	0.00	8.45
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.63	71.82	5.87	0.20	0.20	14.29
B	0.00	0.14	0.14	0.96	7.93	70.86	5.88	0.68	13.41
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.51	14.04	57.89	6.14	18.42
Three year
AAA	40.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	60.00
AA	0.00	54.76	26.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	19.05
A	0.14	0.14	62.99	15.36	1.54	0.28	0.00	0.42	19.13
BBB	0.00	0.00	1.80	69.69	5.36	1.41	0.15	0.15	21.44
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.46	37.37	6.34	1.00	0.89	39.93
B	0.00	0.00	0.46	3.21	14.35	34.35	8.70	2.44	36.49
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.06	3.19	11.70	17.02	10.64	56.38
Five year
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
AA	0.00	27.50	25.00	7.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00
A	0.14	0.14	46.24	19.94	2.02	0.00	0.00	0.72	30.78
BBB	0.00	0.00	2.32	56.91	5.58	2.32	0.61	0.28	31.99
BB	0.00	0.00	0.13	15.08	21.33	2.08	1.04	1.04	59.30
B	0.00	0.00	0.72	4.30	12.19	15.59	3.94	3.76	59.50
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.63	1.32	9.21	9.21	13.16	64.47
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 20

Average transition rates for power (1981-2023)
	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AA	88.89	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	80.51	15.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.24
BBB	0.00	0.74	88.48	3.86	0.52	0.52	0.22	5.65
BB	0.00	0.00	1.80	75.27	9.60	1.08	0.72	11.52
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	71.17	6.85	2.02	13.71
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.63	8.33	52.78	13.89	20.37
Three year
AA	57.14	42.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	57.28	31.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.65
BBB	0.00	1.09	69.70	6.01	3.01	1.00	1.75	17.45
BB	0.00	0.00	3.85	45.16	14.53	3.28	1.99	31.20
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.97	32.53	8.35	4.84	41.32
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	13.54	14.58	26.04	41.67
Five year
AA	40.00	60.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	44.44	37.04	1.23	2.47	0.00	0.00	14.81
BBB	0.00	0.85	54.69	6.92	3.79	1.42	3.32	29.00
BB	0.00	0.00	4.28	27.09	11.41	3.57	3.92	49.73
B	0.00	0.00	0.49	12.84	14.07	5.43	7.16	60.00
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.32	7.89	3.95	32.89	53.95
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 21

Average transition rates for transportation (1981-2023)
	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	83.51	7.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.28
AA	1.49	84.39	5.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.55
A	0.00	0.63	87.13	4.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.85
BBB	0.00	0.00	1.94	87.41	2.58	0.40	0.40	0.00	7.26
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.91	79.14	7.06	0.31	0.00	8.59
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.71	10.64	70.21	9.22	1.42	7.80
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.76	60.78	9.80	17.65
Three year
AAA	59.14	19.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	21.51
AA	3.92	58.82	12.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.10
A	0.00	1.48	65.25	11.09	0.55	0.37	0.00	0.00	21.26
BBB	0.00	0.00	5.20	64.68	5.58	0.65	1.12	0.37	22.40
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.90	47.74	13.16	2.26	1.13	24.81
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.82	15.57	40.98	10.66	4.10	27.87
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	24.39	19.51	19.51	36.59
Five year
AAA	33.71	28.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	38.20
AA	5.22	40.43	14.35	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	39.57
A	0.00	2.01	49.78	13.39	0.89	0.22	0.67	0.00	33.04
BBB	0.00	0.00	6.60	46.75	6.38	2.20	0.55	0.88	36.63
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.49	28.64	14.08	2.35	2.35	37.09
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.13	13.54	27.08	6.25	5.21	44.79
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.82	8.82	23.53	58.82
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 22

Average transition rates for social infrastructure (1981-2023)
	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	66.67	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
A	0.00	0.00	93.58	3.21	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.96
BBB	0.00	0.26	1.80	90.76	3.21	0.39	0.13	0.00	3.47
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.30	87.36	3.85	1.10	0.00	4.40
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	8.70	56.52	17.39	0.00	13.04
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	50.00	10.00	30.00
Three year
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	16.67	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00
A	0.00	0.00	82.85	5.23	0.29	0.29	0.00	0.00	11.34
BBB	0.00	0.72	4.93	74.35	8.26	1.01	0.43	0.00	10.29
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.21	67.76	5.26	3.29	0.00	14.47
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.38	23.08	7.69	23.08	0.00	30.77
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	16.67	50.00	0.00
Five year
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	60.00
A	0.00	0.00	75.00	7.50	0.00	0.71	0.00	0.00	16.79
BBB	0.00	1.02	7.45	62.61	11.68	1.18	0.68	0.00	15.40
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.00	56.80	4.80	4.80	0.00	21.60
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	42.86	0.00	28.57	14.29	0.00
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	66.67	0.00
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 23

Average transition rates for other finance ratings (1981-2023)
	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/C	D	NR
One year
AAA	87.68	4.74	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.58
AA	0.75	88.10	5.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.02
A	0.00	2.07	90.44	2.58	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.00	4.78
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.83	80.76	4.60	0.59	0.24	0.24	12.75
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.83	70.65	9.78	1.96	0.43	14.35
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.50	65.34	7.94	3.61	16.61
CCC/C	3.75	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.50	3.75	52.50	15.00	22.50
Three years
AAA	68.16	12.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	19.40
AA	1.60	68.96	11.84	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.44
A	0.00	5.80	72.95	4.03	0.16	0.81	0.00	0.16	16.10
BBB	0.12	0.00	2.10	50.00	5.20	2.97	2.48	0.87	36.26
BB	0.22	0.00	0.00	5.76	37.69	11.75	3.33	3.99	37.25
B	0.75	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.08	30.19	5.66	9.06	42.26
CCC/C	2.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	3.75	16.25	25.00	47.50
Five years
AAA	53.13	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.21
AA	1.56	55.11	15.60	1.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	26.69
A	0.20	8.20	57.60	3.40	0.60	1.00	0.20	0.60	28.20
BBB	0.39	0.00	2.45	30.24	4.38	2.32	2.19	1.67	56.37
BB	0.46	0.00	0.00	6.39	23.52	5.94	3.20	8.22	52.28
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.38	16.41	2.73	11.33	60.16
CCC/C	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.53	6.33	1.27	29.11	60.76
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 24  |  View Expanded Table

Infrastructure rating actions per year
	--Utilities--			--Power--			--Oil and gas--
	Upgrades	Downgrades	Defaults	Upgrades	Downgrades	Defaults	Upgrades	Downgrades	Defaults
1981	6.00	-40.00	0.00	0.00	-1.00	0.00	3.00	0.00	0.00
1982	20.00	-28.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-3.00	0.00
1983	20.00	-29.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-3.00	0.00
1984	78.00	-28.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	7.00	-3.00	0.00
1985	36.00	-26.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.00	-11.00	0.00
1986	32.00	-37.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	-12.00	0.00
1987	16.00	-48.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.00	-1.00	0.00
1988	18.00	-21.00	-5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	-4.00	0.00
1989	29.00	-45.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.00	-1.00	0.00
1990	32.00	-29.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.00	-2.00	0.00
1991	24.00	-27.00	-3.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	-5.00	0.00
1992	28.00	-22.00	-5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	-8.00	0.00
1993	7.00	-37.00	0.00	0.00	-3.00	0.00	1.00	-3.00	0.00
1994	6.00	-41.00	0.00	0.00	-1.00	0.00	4.00	-3.00	0.00
1995	32.00	-18.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.00	-3.00	0.00
1996	28.00	-17.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	-5.00	0.00
1997	67.00	-29.00	0.00	3.00	-1.00	0.00	6.00	0.00	0.00
1998	16.00	-32.00	0.00	0.00	-2.00	0.00	2.00	-3.00	0.00
1999	52.00	-60.00	0.00	4.00	-2.00	0.00	5.00	-4.00	0.00
2000	21.00	-76.00	0.00	0.00	-2.00	0.00	1.00	-3.00	0.00
2001	48.00	-106.00	-9.00	3.00	-11.00	0.00	10.00	-5.00	-1.00
2002	25.00	-149.00	-13.00	0.00	-19.00	-4.00	7.00	-20.00	0.00
2003	10.00	-130.00	-4.00	5.00	-11.00	-9.00	4.00	-15.00	0.00
2004	51.00	-42.00	-1.00	7.00	-7.00	0.00	4.00	-21.00	0.00
2005	63.00	-44.00	-5.00	6.00	-10.00	-2.00	11.00	-21.00	0.00
2006	40.00	-32.00	0.00	16.00	-4.00	0.00	29.00	-7.00	0.00
2007	92.00	-55.00	0.00	12.00	-5.00	0.00	23.00	-13.00	0.00
2008	76.00	-37.00	0.00	6.00	-10.00	0.00	10.00	-8.00	0.00
2009	40.00	-62.00	-4.00	3.00	-18.00	0.00	4.00	-11.00	0.00
2010	34.00	-68.00	-3.00	10.00	-21.00	0.00	13.00	-9.00	0.00
2011	44.00	-65.00	-6.00	7.00	-11.00	0.00	13.00	-10.00	0.00
2012	29.00	-66.00	-2.00	2.00	-16.00	0.00	25.00	-21.00	0.00
2013	66.00	-38.00	-2.00	6.00	-17.00	-3.00	18.00	-21.00	0.00
2014	34.00	-25.00	-6.00	20.00	-17.00	0.00	37.00	-22.00	0.00
2015	66.00	-51.00	0.00	5.00	-19.00	0.00	18.00	-33.00	-1.00
2016	83.00	-46.00	0.00	9.00	-36.00	-2.00	21.00	-44.00	-2.00
2017	69.00	-45.00	-1.00	14.00	-20.00	-3.00	34.00	-29.00	-1.00
2018	54.00	-31.00	-1.00	16.00	-19.00	-1.00	40.00	-19.00	-1.00
2019	37.00	-35.00	-2.00	18.00	-29.00	0.00	23.00	-17.00	-1.00
2020	10.00	-55.00	-1.00	17.00	-26.00	-2.00	3.00	-54.00	-5.00
2021	32.00	-65.00	0.00	6.00	-31.00	0.00	12.00	-24.00	-1.00
2022	14.00	-28.00	0.00	7.00	-24.00	-2.00	32.00	-12.00	-1.00
2023	15.00	-27.00	-1.00	16.00	-21.00	-6.00	25.00	-12.00	-1.00
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 25

All infrastructure cumulative default rates with modifier (1981-2023)
	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10
A+	0.06	0.12	0.18	0.24	0.31	0.38	0.45	0.53	0.53	0.53	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.61
A	0.12	0.21	0.34	0.47	0.61	0.69	0.76	0.84	0.92	1.05	1.14	1.14	1.14	1.14	1.14
A-	0.07	0.16	0.23	0.33	0.43	0.51	0.54	0.54	0.54	0.54	0.54	0.63	0.67	0.67	0.67
BBB+	0.16	0.35	0.60	0.81	0.98	1.07	1.20	1.31	1.42	1.58	1.75	1.93	1.98	2.08	2.13
BBB	0.09	0.28	0.47	0.66	0.81	0.99	1.16	1.36	1.50	1.70	1.89	2.03	2.21	2.40	2.61
BBB-	0.13	0.52	0.84	1.12	1.39	1.65	1.92	2.21	2.36	2.46	2.57	2.64	2.81	2.90	3.00
BB+	0.00	0.13	0.41	1.57	2.42	2.91	3.17	3.44	3.64	3.86	4.10	4.37	4.51	4.67	4.84
BB	0.64	1.01	1.63	2.12	2.64	3.01	3.21	3.54	3.79	3.79	3.79	3.79	3.79	3.79	3.79
BB-	0.15	1.09	2.71	3.26	3.85	4.39	4.85	5.24	5.51	5.65	5.65	5.65	5.65	5.65	5.65
B+	0.83	2.65	3.88	5.18	5.94	6.63	7.38	7.70	8.07	8.07	8.07	8.07	8.07	8.07	8.07
B	1.66	3.40	5.08	6.20	7.22	7.94	8.32	8.72	9.36	9.60	9.60	9.60	9.60	9.60	9.60
B-	3.65	6.65	8.34	10.61	12.06	13.31	13.58	14.17	14.79	15.78	16.14	16.53	16.53	16.53	16.53
CCC/C	13.82	20.78	24.42	26.92	27.81	28.50	29.48	30.01	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28
Investment-grade	0.09	0.26	0.42	0.58	0.72	0.84	0.95	1.07	1.15	1.25	1.34	1.42	1.49	1.56	1.62
Speculative-grade	1.83	3.32	4.56	5.68	6.47	7.06	7.49	7.86	8.19	8.36	8.45	8.54	8.57	8.61	8.65
All rated	0.45	0.88	1.26	1.61	1.87	2.09	2.26	2.43	2.55	2.66	2.75	2.84	2.90	2.96	3.02
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 26

Investment-grade cumulative default rates (%)
Years	'A' infrastructure corporates and project finance	'BBB' infrastructure corporates and project finance	'A' nonfinancial corporates	'BBB' nonfinancial corporates
0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1	0.08	0.12	0.03	0.12
2	0.17	0.38	0.07	0.33
3	0.26	0.63	0.11	0.59
4	0.36	0.85	0.18	0.93
5	0.47	1.05	0.28	1.31
6	0.55	1.23	0.40	1.68
7	0.60	1.42	0.56	2.01
8	0.65	1.63	0.71	2.33
9	0.68	1.76	0.87	2.65
10	0.72	1.92	1.03	2.95
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 27

Speculative-grade cumulative default rates (%)
Years	'BB' infrastructure corporates and project finance	'B' infrastructure corporates and project finance	'CCC'/'C' infrastructure	'BB' nonfinancial corporates	'B' nonfinancial corporates	'CCC'/'C' nonfinancial corporates
0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1	0.25	1.77	13.82	0.57	3.06	27.11
2	0.71	3.84	20.78	1.88	7.27	37.69
3	1.50	5.32	24.42	3.41	11.03	43.46
4	2.26	6.79	26.92	4.92	14.10	46.70
5	2.93	7.79	27.81	6.35	16.54	49.01
6	3.39	8.62	28.50	7.65	18.48	50.06
7	3.69	9.13	29.48	8.80	20.00	51.12
8	4.01	9.55	30.01	9.88	21.19	51.75
9	4.25	10.07	30.28	10.84	22.23	52.38
10	4.37	10.40	30.28	11.70	23.19	52.97
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 28

Average cumulative default rates (1981- 2023) (%)
	--Time horizon (years)--
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
All infrastructure
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
A	0.08	0.17	0.26	0.36	0.47	0.55	0.60	0.65	0.68	0.72	0.77	0.81	0.83	0.83	0.83
BBB	0.12	0.38	0.63	0.85	1.05	1.23	1.42	1.63	1.76	1.92	2.07	2.20	2.34	2.47	2.60
BB	0.25	0.71	1.50	2.26	2.93	3.39	3.69	4.01	4.25	4.37	4.47	4.57	4.62	4.68	4.75
B	1.77	3.84	5.32	6.79	7.79	8.62	9.13	9.55	10.07	10.40	10.49	10.58	10.58	10.58	10.58
CCC/C	13.82	20.78	24.42	26.92	27.81	28.50	29.48	30.01	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28
Investment-grade	0.09	0.26	0.42	0.58	0.72	0.84	0.95	1.07	1.15	1.25	1.34	1.42	1.49	1.56	1.62
Speculative-grade	1.83	3.32	4.56	5.68	6.47	7.06	7.49	7.86	8.19	8.36	8.45	8.54	8.57	8.61	8.65
All rated	0.45	0.88	1.26	1.61	1.87	2.09	2.26	2.43	2.55	2.66	2.75	2.84	2.90	2.96	3.02
Project finance
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.26	0.41	0.57	0.75	0.95	0.95	1.21	1.51	1.85	1.85	1.85	1.85
BBB	0.06	0.27	0.44	0.67	0.87	0.95	1.04	1.09	1.15	1.26	1.44	1.57	1.71	1.71	1.71
BB	0.31	0.96	2.34	3.35	4.42	5.25	5.81	6.54	7.07	7.35	7.51	7.68	7.87	8.08	8.33
B	2.50	4.96	5.99	7.26	8.60	9.83	10.70	11.42	12.21	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
CCC/C	11.18	16.69	21.32	24.89	25.72	25.72	25.72	25.72	25.72	25.72	25.72	25.72	25.72	25.72	25.72
Investment-grade	0.05	0.20	0.37	0.57	0.75	0.85	0.96	1.04	1.08	1.21	1.41	1.57	1.68	1.68	1.68
Speculative-grade	1.84	3.44	4.98	6.27	7.40	8.30	8.92	9.58	10.15	10.41	10.51	10.61	10.73	10.86	11.01
All rated	0.66	1.31	1.93	2.51	3.01	3.38	3.67	3.94	4.16	4.34	4.50	4.64	4.76	4.80	4.85
Corporate infrastructure excluding utilties
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.06	0.12	0.18	0.25	0.33	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.52	0.65	0.65	0.65
BBB	0.09	0.37	0.70	1.02	1.29	1.62	1.98	2.38	2.71	3.07	3.34	3.57	3.82	4.18	4.49
BB	0.40	0.68	1.21	1.79	2.44	2.85	3.32	3.58	3.58	3.58	3.58	3.58	3.58	3.58	3.58
B	1.07	2.79	4.07	5.34	6.20	7.14	7.58	7.90	8.64	9.27	9.50	9.77	9.77	9.77	9.77
CCC/C	10.88	16.97	19.41	20.80	21.51	21.51	22.31	23.19	23.19	23.19	23.19	23.19	23.19	23.19	23.19
Investment-grade	0.06	0.23	0.42	0.61	0.77	0.96	1.14	1.34	1.50	1.68	1.81	1.95	2.10	2.26	2.40
Speculative-grade	1.39	2.62	3.58	4.48	5.22	5.81	6.29	6.63	6.94	7.20	7.30	7.41	7.41	7.41	7.41
All rated	0.46	0.95	1.37	1.76	2.09	2.39	2.66	2.90	3.10	3.29	3.41	3.55	3.66	3.79	3.90
Utilities
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06
A	0.10	0.20	0.29	0.40	0.52	0.58	0.64	0.67	0.71	0.75	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79
BBB	0.16	0.42	0.67	0.86	1.03	1.19	1.36	1.55	1.65	1.76	1.87	1.98	2.08	2.20	2.32
BB	0.06	0.53	1.08	1.80	2.17	2.40	2.40	2.48	2.66	2.75	2.85	2.95	2.95	2.95	2.95
B	2.22	4.50	6.87	8.92	9.79	10.01	10.24	10.48	10.48	10.48	10.48	10.48	10.48	10.48	10.48
CCC/C	18.39	27.15	30.98	33.52	34.57	36.21	37.88	38.46	39.08	39.08	39.08	39.08	39.08	39.08	39.08
Investment-grade	0.12	0.28	0.43	0.57	0.69	0.79	0.89	1.00	1.06	1.12	1.19	1.24	1.29	1.34	1.39
Speculative-grade	2.34	4.04	5.33	6.53	7.08	7.44	7.66	7.82	8.00	8.06	8.13	8.19	8.19	8.19	8.19
All rated	0.38	0.72	1.01	1.27	1.44	1.57	1.69	1.80	1.87	1.94	2.00	2.06	2.10	2.14	2.19
Oil and gas
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.14	0.27	0.41	0.56	0.70	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.85
BBB	0.00	0.05	0.14	0.25	0.30	0.36	0.49	0.63	0.71	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.79
BB	0.20	0.51	0.84	0.96	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09
B	0.68	1.69	2.45	3.27	4.17	5.14	5.36	5.36	5.62	5.92	5.92	5.92	5.92	5.92	5.92
CCC/C	6.14	8.96	11.07	13.54	14.83	14.83	16.44	18.34	18.34	18.34	18.34	18.34	18.34	18.34	18.34
Investment-grade	0.03	0.10	0.21	0.32	0.40	0.48	0.57	0.67	0.72	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77
Speculative-grade	0.75	1.48	2.09	2.62	3.11	3.50	3.67	3.76	3.87	3.99	3.99	3.99	3.99	3.99	3.99
All rated	0.31	0.62	0.92	1.18	1.40	1.59	1.71	1.81	1.87	1.95	1.95	1.95	1.95	1.95	1.95
Power
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.17	4.50	4.50	4.50
BBB	0.22	0.93	1.68	2.39	2.96	3.68	4.34	5.05	5.69	6.38	6.99	7.50	8.05	8.88	9.57
BB	0.72	1.37	2.08	3.03	4.45	5.85	7.00	7.80	7.80	7.80	7.80	7.80	7.80	7.80	7.80
B	2.02	4.52	6.46	8.49	9.93	10.97	11.54	12.22	13.42	14.35	14.90	15.53	15.53	15.53	15.53
CCC/C	13.89	22.70	26.82	29.14	29.14	29.14	29.14	29.14	29.14	29.14	29.14	29.14	29.14	29.14	29.14
Investment-grade	0.20	0.85	1.54	2.19	2.72	3.38	4.00	4.66	5.25	5.89	6.46	7.08	7.76	8.52	9.16
Speculative-grade	2.16	4.08	5.51	6.97	8.30	9.46	10.29	10.97	11.45	11.82	12.04	12.28	12.28	12.28	12.28
All rated	1.17	2.45	3.50	4.54	5.46	6.35	7.06	7.73	8.27	8.80	9.23	9.70	10.12	10.60	11.01
Transportation
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.17	0.36	0.56	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78
BB	0.00	0.34	1.09	1.51	1.98	1.98	1.98	1.98	1.98	1.98	1.98	1.98	1.98	1.98	1.98
B	1.42	2.92	3.75	4.68	4.68	4.68	4.68	4.68	4.68	4.68	4.68	4.68	4.68	4.68	4.68
CCC/C	9.80	14.10	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63	16.63
Investment-grade	0.00	0.09	0.20	0.31	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.43
Speculative-grade	1.35	2.40	3.34	3.87	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16	4.16
All rated	0.25	0.52	0.78	0.96	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.11
Social
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.78	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.19	2.62	2.62	2.62	2.62	2.62	2.62	2.62
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	31.43	48.57	48.57	48.57	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
CCC/C	10.00	21.25	40.94	60.63	60.63	60.63	60.63	60.63	60.63	60.63	60.63	60.63	60.63	60.63	N/A
Investment-grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.46
Speculative-grade	0.47	0.98	1.57	2.22	2.95	3.77	4.68	5.75	7.05	7.05	7.05	7.05	7.05	7.05	7.05
All rated	0.07	0.15	0.23	0.32	0.42	0.53	0.65	0.79	0.95	1.13	1.35	1.35	1.35	1.35	1.35
Other
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.16	0.34	0.54	0.76	1.01	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.28	1.60	1.60	1.60	1.60
BBB	0.24	0.60	0.85	1.23	1.61	1.88	2.14	2.28	2.42	2.70	3.13	3.43	3.73	3.73	3.73
BB	0.43	1.09	3.98	6.22	8.05	9.22	10.18	11.15	11.88	12.37	12.63	12.90	13.17	13.47	13.80
B	3.61	7.69	8.82	9.98	10.77	11.96	13.17	14.41	15.67	16.09	16.09	16.09	16.09	16.09	16.09
CCC/C	15.00	21.25	25.00	27.50	28.77	28.77	28.77	28.77	28.77	28.77	28.77	28.77	28.77	28.77	28.77
Investment-grade	0.08	0.21	0.34	0.53	0.72	0.88	1.04	1.15	1.21	1.33	1.52	1.73	1.87	1.87	1.87
Speculative-grade	2.94	5.30	7.69	9.60	11.03	12.09	13.03	13.98	14.81	15.23	15.37	15.52	15.68	15.85	16.04
All rated	0.78	1.48	2.20	2.85	3.38	3.79	4.17	4.53	4.82	5.04	5.22	5.40	5.55	5.60	5.66
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 29

All infrastructure cumulative default rates (1981-2023)
	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
A	0.08	0.17	0.26	0.36	0.47	0.55	0.60	0.65	0.68	0.72	0.77	0.81	0.83	0.83	0.83
BBB	0.12	0.38	0.63	0.85	1.05	1.23	1.42	1.63	1.76	1.92	2.07	2.20	2.34	2.47	2.60
BB	0.25	0.71	1.50	2.26	2.93	3.39	3.69	4.01	4.25	4.37	4.47	4.57	4.62	4.68	4.75
B	1.77	3.84	5.32	6.79	7.79	8.62	9.13	9.55	10.07	10.40	10.49	10.58	10.58	10.58	10.58
CCC/C	13.82	20.78	24.42	26.92	27.81	28.50	29.48	30.01	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28	30.28
Investment-grade	0.09	0.26	0.42	0.58	0.72	0.84	0.95	1.07	1.15	1.25	1.34	1.42	1.49	1.56	1.62
Speculative-grade	1.83	3.32	4.56	5.68	6.47	7.06	7.49	7.86	8.19	8.36	8.45	8.54	8.57	8.61	8.65
All rated	0.45	0.88	1.26	1.61	1.87	2.09	2.26	2.43	2.55	2.66	2.75	2.84	2.90	2.96	3.02
Nonfinance corporate cumulative default rates 1981-2023
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.15	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.30	0.37
AA	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.06	0.09	0.13	0.20	0.23	0.26	0.31	0.36	0.41	0.46	0.49	0.54
A	0.03	0.07	0.11	0.18	0.28	0.40	0.56	0.71	0.87	1.03	1.17	1.31	1.44	1.57	1.70
BBB	0.12	0.33	0.59	0.93	1.31	1.68	2.01	2.33	2.65	2.95	3.24	3.46	3.65	3.85	4.07
BB	0.57	1.88	3.41	4.92	6.35	7.65	8.80	9.88	10.84	11.70	12.39	13.04	13.64	14.14	14.66
B	3.06	7.27	11.03	14.10	16.54	18.48	20.00	21.19	22.23	23.19	24.00	24.64	25.26	25.85	26.43
CCC/C	27.11	37.69	43.46	46.70	49.01	50.06	51.12	51.75	52.38	52.97	53.51	54.00	54.52	54.91	54.91
Investment-grade	0.07	0.19	0.34	0.54	0.77	1.00	1.23	1.44	1.66	1.87	2.06	2.22	2.36	2.50	2.66
Speculative-grade	3.75	7.26	10.28	12.73	14.75	16.37	17.70	18.81	19.79	20.68	21.41	22.04	22.64	23.17	23.69
All rated	1.95	3.78	5.37	6.68	7.78	8.69	9.44	10.07	10.63	11.15	11.58	11.94	12.28	12.58	12.89
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 30

Marginal default rates (1981-2023)
	--Time horizon (years)--
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
All infrastructure
A	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.05
BBB	0.12	0.25	0.25	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.19	0.21	0.14	0.16
BB	0.25	0.46	0.80	0.77	0.68	0.48	0.31	0.34	0.24	0.13
B	1.77	2.11	1.54	1.55	1.08	0.90	0.56	0.46	0.58	0.36
All rated	0.45	0.44	0.38	0.35	0.27	0.22	0.18	0.17	0.13	0.11
Nonfinancial corporate
A	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.08	0.10	0.12	0.16	0.15	0.16	0.16
BBB	0.12	0.21	0.26	0.34	0.39	0.38	0.33	0.33	0.32	0.31
BB	0.57	1.32	1.55	1.57	1.50	1.39	1.24	1.18	1.07	0.96
B	3.06	4.34	4.06	3.45	2.84	2.32	1.87	1.48	1.32	1.24
All rated	1.95	1.87	1.65	1.39	1.18	0.98	0.82	0.70	0.63	0.58
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 31

Infrastructure rating distribution by region or country
Rating	North America*	U.S.	EMEA	Asia-Pacific	Canada	Latin America	Total
Number of ratings
AAA	1	0	3	0	1	1	5
AA	15	4	16	0	11	10	41
A	177	120	131	7	57	26	341
BBB	255	211	229	53	44	56	593
BB	106	83	51	30	23	14	201
B	55	55	25	7	0	3	90
CCC/C	9	9	5	8	0	1	23
% rating distribution by region or country
AAA	0.16	0.00	0.65	0.00	0.74	N/A	0.39
AA	2.43	0.83	3.48	0.00	8.09	N/A	3.17
A	28.64	24.90	28.48	6.67	41.91	23.42	26.35
BBB	41.26	43.78	49.78	50.48	32.35	50.45	45.83
BB	17.15	17.22	11.09	28.57	16.91	12.61	15.53
B	8.90	11.41	5.43	6.67	0.00	2.70	6.96
CCC/C	1.46	1.87	1.09	7.62	0.00	0.90	1.78
Variance in rating distribution from total by region or country
AAA	-0.22	-0.39	0.27	-0.39	0.35	N/A	0.00
AA	-0.74	-2.34	0.31	-3.17	4.92	N/A	0.00
A	2.29	-1.46	2.13	-19.69	15.56	-2.93	0.00
BBB	-4.56	-2.05	3.96	4.65	-13.47	4.62	0.00
BB	1.62	1.69	-4.45	13.04	1.38	-2.92	0.00
B	1.94	4.46	-1.52	-0.29	-6.96	-4.25	0.00
CCC/C	-0.32	0.09	-0.69	5.84	-1.78	-0.88	0.00
*U.S., Canada, and tax havens. Ratings as of Jan. 1, 2024. EMEA--Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 32

Infrastructure defaults
Issuer	Type	Subsector	Debt type	Country	Region	Default date	Rating prior to default	Year
Public Service Co. of New Hampshire	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/28/1988	CCC	1988
Public Service Co. of New Hampshire	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	1/28/1988	CCC-	1988
Public Service Co. of New Hampshire	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	1/28/1988	CCC-	1988
Geothermal Resources International Inc.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Subordinated	U.S.	U.S.	8/11/1988	CC	1988
Geothermal Resources International Inc.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Subordinated	U.S.	U.S.	8/11/1988	CC	1988
Columbia Energy Group	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	7/31/1991	BB	1991
Columbia Energy Group	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	7/31/1991	BB	1991
Bonneville Pacific Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Subordinated	U.S.	U.S.	12/6/1991	CCC-	1991
Del Norte Funding Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	1/8/1992	CCC-	1992
Del Norte Funding Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	1/8/1992	CCC-	1992
El Paso Funding Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	1/8/1992	CCC-	1992
El Paso Funding Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	1/8/1992	CCC-	1992
El Paso Electric Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	4/27/1992	CCC	1992
Mobile Energy Services Co. LLC	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/15/1999	CCC	1999
Southern California Edison Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/18/2001	CC	2001
Southern California Edison Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	1/18/2001	CC	2001
Southern California Edison Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	1/18/2001	CC	2001
Pacific Gas & Electric Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	4/9/2001	CC	2001
Southern California Edison Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	6/5/2001	CC	2001
York Power Funding (Cayman) Ltd.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	Cayman Islands	U.S.	10/31/2001	BB-	2001
Enron Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	12/3/2001	CC	2001
Enron Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	12/3/2001	CC	2001
Enron Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Subordinated	U.S.	U.S.	12/3/2001	C	2001
Enron Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Subordinated	U.S.	U.S.	12/3/2001	C	2001
Autopistas del Sol S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Transportation	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	2/1/2002	CC	2002
Teesside Power Financing Ltd.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	Cayman Islands	U.S.	2/18/2002	BB	2002
Aguas Argentinas S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	2/19/2002	CC	2002
Covanta Energy LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	3/1/2002	B	2002
Covanta Energy LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Subordinated	U.S.	U.S.	3/1/2002	B-	2002
Covanta Energy LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Subordinated	U.S.	U.S.	3/1/2002	B-	2002
Inversora Electrica de Buenos Aires S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	3/15/2002	CC	2002
Metrogas S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	4/2/2002	CC	2002
Compania de Transporte de Energia Electrica en Alta Tension TRANSENER S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	4/22/2002	CC	2002
Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN)	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	5/7/2002	CC	2002
Aguas Argentinas S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	Argentina	Latin America	5/16/2002	CC	2002
Azurix Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	6/18/2002	CC	2002
Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN)	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	6/26/2002	CC	2002
Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	7/3/2002	CC	2002
Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	9/17/2002	CC	2002
Engie Energia Chile S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	Chile	Latin America	9/17/2002	CC	2002
Energy Group Ltd. (The)	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.K.	EMEA	10/21/2002	CC	2002
National Energy & Gas Transmission Inc.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	11/14/2002	B-	2002
TXU Eastern Funding Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.K.	EMEA	11/20/2002	CC	2002
TXU Europe Ltd.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.K.	EMEA	11/20/2002	CC	2002
EDF Energy Nuclear Generation Group Ltd.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.K.	EMEA	2/18/2003	C	2003
CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	Brazil	Latin America	4/23/2003	CC	2003
CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	Brazil	Latin America	4/23/2003	CC	2003
NRG Energy Inc.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	5/15/2003	CC	2003
Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS)	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	5/16/2003	CC	2003
Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS)	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	5/16/2003	CC	2003
USGen New England Inc.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	7/8/2003	C	2003
GenOn Americas LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	7/15/2003	CC	2003
GenOn Americas LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	7/15/2003	CC	2003
GenOn Energy Holdings Inc.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	7/15/2003	CC	2003
CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	Brazil	Latin America	8/14/2003	CC	2003
CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	Brazil	Latin America	8/14/2003	CC	2003
NorthWestern Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	9/15/2003	CCC	2003
NorthWestern Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	9/15/2003	CCC	2003
NorthWestern Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	9/15/2003	CC	2003
Avon Energy Partners Holdings	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.K.	EMEA	1/16/2004	CC	2004
TermoEmcali Funding Corp	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	Colombia	Latin America	9/15/2004	CC	2004
Entergy New Orleans LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	10/18/2005	CC	2005
Entergy New Orleans LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	10/18/2005	CC	2005
Broad River Energy LLC	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	12/21/2005	CCC-	2005
Calpine Canada Energy Finance II ULC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Canada	Canada	12/21/2005	CC	2005
Calpine Canada Energy Finance ULC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Canada	Canada	12/21/2005	CC	2005
Calpine Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	12/21/2005	CCC-	2005
Calpine Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	12/21/2005	CC	2005
Calpine Generating Co. LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	12/21/2005	CCC	2005
RockGen Energy LLC	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	12/21/2005	CCC-	2005
Rumford Power Assoc L.P.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	12/21/2005	CCC-	2005
Eurotunnel S.A.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.K.	EMEA	8/16/2006	C	2006
Fixed-Link Finance 2 B.V.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	Netherlands	EMEA	3/16/2007	C	2007
Metronet Rail BCV Finance PLC	Project finance	Transportation	Senior secured	U.K.	EMEA	2/29/2008	CC	2008
Metronet Rail SSL Finance PLC	Project finance	Transportation	Senior secured	U.K.	EMEA	2/29/2008	CC	2008
Lane Cove Tunnel Finance Co. Pty Ltd.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	Australia	Asia Pacific	12/8/2008	CC	2008
OOO Mostransavto-Finance	Corporate infrastructure	Other	Senior unsecured	Russia	EMEA	12/24/2008	CC	2008
Northeast Biofuels L.P.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/14/2009	C	2009
Fixed-Link Finance B.V.	Project finance	Other	Junior Subordinated	Netherlands	EMEA	3/4/2009	C	2009
Energy Future Holdings Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	11/16/2009	CC	2009
Energy Future Holdings Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	11/16/2009	CC	2009
Energy Future Holdings Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	11/16/2009	CC	2009
Vistra Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	11/16/2009	CC	2009
Bosque Power Co. LLC	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	3/26/2010	B	2010
Metrogas S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Argentina	Latin America	6/18/2010	CC	2010
Energy Future Holdings Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	8/17/2010	CC	2010
Boston Generating LLC	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	8/18/2010	CC	2010
Vistra Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	12/21/2010	CCC	2010
Vistra Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	4/20/2011	CC	2011
Vistra Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	4/20/2011	CC	2011
Energy Future Holdings Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	5/2/2011	CC	2011
Energy Future Holdings Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	5/2/2011	CC	2011
Dynegy Danskammer LLC	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	11/8/2011	CC	2011
Dynegy Holdings LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	11/8/2011	CC	2011
Astoria Generating Co. Acquisitions LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	12/7/2011	CCC-	2011
Par Pacific Holdings Inc.	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	12/19/2011	CC	2011
AES Eastern Energy L.P.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/3/2012	CC	2012
LSP Energy L.P.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/19/2012	CC	2012
Bicent Power LLC	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	4/20/2012	CC	2012
Homer City Funding LLC	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	10/10/2012	CC	2012
Energy Future Holdings Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	12/6/2012	CC	2012
Choctaw Generation L.P.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	12/14/2012	CC	2012
Edison Mission Energy	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	12/17/2012	CCC-	2012
Midwest Generation LLC	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	12/17/2012	CCC+	2012
Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/31/2013	CC	2013
Vistra Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/31/2013	CC	2013
Northland Resources A.B.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	Sweden	EMEA	3/7/2013	C	2013
Longview Power LLC	Project finance	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	9/3/2013	CCC-	2013
Breeze Finance S.A.	Project finance	Power	Subordinated	Luxembourg	EMEA	10/31/2013	C	2013
CRC Breeze Finance S.A.	Project finance	Power	Secured subordinated debt	Luxembourg	EMEA	10/31/2013	C	2013
Vistra Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	4/4/2014	CC	2014
Energy Future Competitive Holdings Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Subordinated	U.S.	U.S.	5/1/2014	C	2014
Energy Future Holdings Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	5/1/2014	C	2014
Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	5/1/2014	C	2014
Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	5/1/2014	C	2014
Vistra Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	5/1/2014	CC	2014
Windsor Petroleum Transport Corp.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	7/16/2014	CCC-	2014
Schahin II Finance Co. (SPV) Ltd.	Project finance	Oil and gas	Senior secured	Cayman Islands	U.S.	10/1/2015	CC	2015
Southcross Holdings Borrower L.P.	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	3/28/2016	CC	2016
Ukrainian Railways JSC	Corporate infrastructure	Transportation	Senior secured	Ukraine	EMEA	3/31/2016	CC	2016
Odebrecht Oil & Gas Finance Ltd.	Project finance	Oil and gas	Senior secured	Cayman Islands	U.S.	4/20/2016	CC	2016
Lombard Public Facilities Corp.	Project finance	Social infrastructure	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	6/30/2016	CC	2016
Homer City Generation L.P.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	10/25/2016	CC	2016
Illinois Power Generating Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	12/19/2016	CC	2016
Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd.	Project finance	Oil and gas	Senior secured	Cayman Islands	U.S.	4/3/2017	CCC-	2017
GenOn Americas LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	6/14/2017	CC	2017
GenOn Energy Inc.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	6/14/2017	CCC	2017
GenOn Energy Inc.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	6/14/2017	CCC-	2017
Corporacion Electrica Nacional S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Venezuela	Latin America	11/10/2017	CC	2017
ExGen Texas Power LLC	Project finance	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	11/13/2017	CCC-	2017
Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd.	Project finance	Oil and gas	Senior secured	Cayman Islands	U.S.	12/22/2017	CC	2017
Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining and Marketing LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/24/2018	CCC-	2018
Energy Harbor Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	4/2/2018	C	2018
FirstEnergy Generation LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	4/2/2018	C	2018
Corporacion Electrica Nacional S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Venezuela	Latin America	4/24/2018	CC	2018
Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A.	Project finance	Other	Senior secured	Luxembourg	EMEA	5/9/2018	B+	2018
Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A.	Project finance	Other	Senior unsecured	Luxembourg	EMEA	5/9/2018	B	2018
Pacific Gas & Electric Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/29/2019	CC	2019
Pacific Gas & Electric Co.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	1/29/2019	CC	2019
PES Holdings LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	7/3/2019	B-	2019
Beijing Energy International Holding Co. Ltd.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Bermuda	U.S.	1/21/2020	CC	2020
Longview Power LLC	Project finance	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	4/14/2020	CC	2020
Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Transportation	Senior secured	Argentina	Latin America	5/19/2020	CC	2020
CSI Compressco L.P.	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	6/16/2020	C	2020
Ferrellgas Partners L.P.	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	6/16/2020	C	2020
Summit Midstream Finance Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	6/23/2020	CCC-	2020
Martin Midstream Partners L.P.	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	8/14/2020	CC	2020
Summit Midstream Finance Corp.	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	9/25/2020	CC	2020
Frontera Generation Holdings LLC	Project finance	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	10/23/2020	CCC	2020
Summit Midstream Partners Holdings LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	11/18/2020	C	2020
Glass Mountain Pipeline Holdings LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	8/9/2021	CC	2021
Ruby Pipeline LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	4/1/2022	CCC-	2022
Talen Energy Supply LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	5/10/2022	CCC+	2022
Talen Energy Supply LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	U.S.	U.S.	5/10/2022	CC	2022
Nautilus Power LLC	Project finance	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	5/9/2023	B	2023
Nautilus Power LLC	Project finance	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	5/9/2023	B	2023
Guacolda Energia S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	Chile	Latin America	8/16/2023	CC	2023
Guacolda Energia S.A.	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior unsecured	Chile	Latin America	4/12/2023	CC	2023
Inversiones Latin America Power Ltda.	Project finance	Power	Senior secured	Chile	Latin America	7/5/2023	CCC-	2023
FR BR Holdings LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Oil and gas	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	12/15/2023	CCC-	2023
Heritage Power LLC	Corporate infrastructure	Power	Senior secured	U.S.	U.S.	1/26/2023	CCC	2023
DTEK Renewables Finance B.V.	Corporate infrastructure	Utilities	Senior unsecured	Netherlands	EMEA	7/24/2023	CCC-	2023
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Credit Research & Insights:	Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698; nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
	Zev R Gurwitz, Albany + 1 (212) 438 7128; zev.gurwitz@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:	Nivritti Mishra Richhariya, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Mumbai