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China Tier-One Local Government Risk Indicators Databook

This report does not constitute a rating action.

This report comparative statistics for 36 tier-one local and regional governments (LRGs). We use the term "tier-one LRGs" to refer to the first tier of local governments under China's fiscal hierarchy (see flow-chart illustration below). These LRGs have direct fiscal ties with the central government. Of the four tiers of LRGs in China, only tier-one LRGs can borrow directly in the capital market.

S&P Global Ratings assesses the creditworthiness of non-U.S. LRGs by combining its assessment of their institutional framework and individual credit profiles to arrive at the anchor, a core element for assigning an issuer credit rating. As such, we focus on the issuer-specific credit profile. For Chinese LRGs, we focus on assessing "LRG-level" credit factors. For instance, for provincial governments, we primarily assess the "provincial-level" credit metrics, while using "whole province" ones (including provincial-level data plus data from its lower-tier cities/districts) as supplementary.

This is one of two articles published simultaneously on China's tier-one local government risk indicators. The other is a chartbook and includes more granular material, including on individual local governments. It is titled "China Tier-One Local Government Risk Indicators Chartbook."

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The charts and tables below include economic, fiscal, and debt indicators across Chinese tier-one LRGs. The debt indicators include our estimates of these LRGs' tax-supported adjusted debt burdens, including debt from local government financing vehicles (LGFVs).

In addition, we select some liquid assets controlled by LRGs as a supplement to measure LRGs' buffers against coming debt repayment, by regions.

In this report, we have also added selective indicators as supplemental data to measure the LRGs' capacity to support their respective state-owned enterprises.

Table 1

Local and regional government economic profile
Tier-one LRGs GDP per capita GDP scale Real GDP growth (%) Investment growth (%)
2023 (US$) 2023 (RMB) 2023 (bil. US$) 2023 (bil. RMB) 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
Anhui 10,898 76,830 667 4,705 8.3 3.5 5.8 9.4 9.0 4.0
Beijing 28,369 200,000 621 4,376 8.5 0.7 5.2 4.9 3.6 4.9
Chongqing 13,352 94,135 428 3,015 8.3 2.6 6.1 6.1 0.7 4.3
Dalian* 16,533 116,557 124 875 8.2 4.0 6.0 1.2 6.5 0.6
Fujian§ 18,421 129,865 771 5,436 8.0 4.7 4.5 6.0 7.5 2.5
Gansu 6,790 47,867 168 1,186 6.9 4.5 6.4 11.1 10.1 5.9
Guangdong§ 15,175 106,986 1,924 13,567 8.0 1.9 4.8 6.3 (2.6) 2.5
Guangxi 7,660 54,005 386 2,720 7.5 2.9 4.1 7.6 (0.3) (15.5)
Guizhou 7,684 54,172 297 2,091 8.1 1.2 4.9 (3.1) (5.1) (5.7)
Hainan 10,349 72,958 107 755 11.2 0.2 9.2 10.2 (4.2) 1.1
Hebei 8,416 59,332 623 4,394 6.5 3.8 5.5 3.0 7.6 6.1
Heilongjiang 7,358 51,874 225 1,588 6.1 2.7 2.6 6.4 0.6 (14.8)
Henan 8,521 60,073 839 5,913 6.3 3.1 4.1 4.5 6.7 2.1
Hubei 13,551 95,538 792 5,580 12.9 4.3 6.0 20.4 15.0 5.0
Hunan 10,771 75,938 709 5,001 7.7 4.5 4.6 8.0 6.6 (3.1)
Inner Mongolia 14,564 102,677 349 2,463 6.3 4.2 7.3 9.5 16.8 19.4
Jiangsu 21,346 150,487 1,819 12,822 8.6 2.8 5.8 5.8 3.8 5.2
Jiangxi 10,102 71,216 457 3,220 8.8 4.7 4.1 10.8 8.6 (5.9)
Jilin 8,206 57,850 192 1,353 6.6 (1.9) 6.3 11.0 (2.4) 0.3
Liaoning§ 10,228 72,107 429 3,021 5.8 2.1 5.3 2.6 3.6 4.0
Ningbo* 24,165 170,363 233 1,645 8.2 3.5 5.5 11.0 10.4 7.5
Ningxia 10,349 72,957 75 531 6.7 4.0 6.6 2.7 8.2 5.0
Qingdao* 21,554 151,958 224 1,576 8.3 3.9 5.9 4.1 4.5 5.0
Qinghai 9,064 63,903 54 380 5.7 2.3 5.3 (2.9) (7.6) (7.5)
Shaanxi 12,120 85,448 479 3,379 6.5 4.3 4.3 (3.1) 7.9 0.3
Shandong§ 12,901 90,950 1,306 9,207 8.3 3.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.2
Shanghai 26,931 189,862 670 4,722 8.1 (0.2) 5.0 8.1 (1) 13.8
Shanxi 10,494 73,984 365 2,570 9.1 4.4 5.0 8.7 5.9 (6.6)
Shenzhen* 27,692 195,230 491 3,461 6.7 3.4 6.0 3.7 8.4 11.0
Sichuan 10,189 71,835 853 6,013 8.2 2.9 6.0 10.1 8.4 4.4
Tianjin 17,412 122,752 237 1,674 6.6 1.0 4.3 4.8 (9.9) (16.4)
Tibet 9,311 65,642 34 239 6.7 1.1 9.5 (14.2) (18) 35.1
Xiamen* 21,479 151,427 114 807 8.1 4.4 3.1 11.3 10.2 0.5
Xinjiang 10,464 73,774 271 1,913 7.0 3.2 6.8 15.0 7.6 12.4
Yunnan 9,093 64,107 426 3,002 7.3 4.3 4.4 4.0 7.0 (10.6)
Zhejiang§ 17,737 125,043 1,171 8,255 8.5 3.1 6.0 10.8 9.1 6.1
China LRG sector 12,675 89,358 17,881 126,058 8.4 3.0 5.2 4.9 5.1 3.0
Note: Please refer to our glossary for a definition of terms. *Cities with state-planning status. §Economic data of these provinces includes that of the respective cities with state-planning status. 1 USD = 7.05 RMB for 2023. Sources: Local governments' Bureau of Statistics, Wind, S&P Global Ratings.

Table 2

Local and regional government fiscal profile (LRG level)
Tier-one LRGs Adjusted total revenue Revenue composition (2023)(%) Operating balance as % of adjusted operating revenue Balance after capital accounts as % of adjusted total revenue
2023 (bil. RMB) Own operating revenue Own capital revenue Transfer payments 2021-2023 average 2023 2021-2023 average 2023
Anhui 520.8 6.5 0.8 92.7 5.4 5.3 (0.6) (0.3)
Beijing 618.4 55.5 10.3 34.2 16.0 10.6 4.7 (2.9)
Chongqing 473.9 19.1 19.3 61.6 9.4 11.1 (9.2) (6.8)
Dalian 81.9 41.1 0.0 58.9 11.8 11.8 (17.4) (26.5)
Fujian 251.1 11.7 0.0 88.3 1.4 (0.4) (5.5) (7.3)
Gansu 390.5 6.8 0.0 93.2 4.4 0.4 (7.5) (6.6)
Guangdong 739.5 43.8 0.6 55.6 0.1 (2.2) (6.2) (7.6)
Guangxi 470.2 8.0 0.3 91.6 1.9 3.3 (9.3) (5.4)
Guizhou 492.4 13.3 4.2 82.5 10.1 9.6 (3.6) (1.5)
Hainan 178.5 13.9 3.0 83.1 2.1 1.9 (11.3) (13.1)
Hebei 587.6 12.4 0.2 87.4 2.3 3.4 (0.9) 2.0
Heilongjiang 522.2 5.9 0.1 94.0 8.4 8.8 1.0 2.5
Henan 712.0 2.6 0.8 96.6 1.2 (0.1) (1.9) (2.8)
Hubei 601.2 5.6 0.0 94.3 7.5 6.6 0.8 (0.2)
Hunan 582.4 7.0 0.3 92.8 2.8 3.7 (1.8) (1.6)
Inner Mongolia 481.3 20.1 0.0 79.9 6.5 (0.4) (1.2) (5.4)
Jiangsu 530.2 6.5 0.2 93.3 5.6 3.7 (2.4) (2.3)
Jiangxi 462.5 16.0 0.5 83.5 9.0 8.5 0.1 1.9
Jilin 361.1 8.1 0.8 91.2 7.9 5.9 1.2 0.5
Liaoning 397.7 2.2 0.0 97.8 (0.2) (2.5) (7.4) (4.2)
Ningbo 153.7 20.7 38.5 40.8 9.5 7.2 (11.9) (19)
Ningxia 151.9 13.4 0.3 86.4 13.8 14.7 2.8 2.5
Qingdao 114.2 10.7 13.4 75.9 8.6 3.9 (11.0) (16.8)
Qinghai 188.1 2.0 0.5 97.5 14.4 9.7 (9.7) (2)
Shaanxi 473.5 24.9 0.7 74.4 9.0 7.9 (0.8) 2.9
Shandong 489.0 5.2 1.4 93.5 2.2 (0.9) (4.8) (5.4)
Shanghai 653.7 60.2 12.1 27.7 15.1 16.9 (0.2) 5.0
Shanxi 366.1 28.5 0.7 70.8 8.4 9.3 (1.9) (0.1)
Shenzhen 387.9 58.3 20.8 21.0 6.1 (2.3) (9.7) (17.1)
Sichuan 828.2 13.2 0.4 86.4 5.4 6.4 (0.3) 2.4
Tianjin 193.4 41.6 15.7 42.7 5.5 8.4 (10.5) (6.4)
Tibet 259.8 1.2 0.0 98.8 14.8 14.0 (0.6) (0.7)
Xiamen 121.2 53.8 30.4 15.8 6.5 6.7 (23.0) (27.3)
Xinjiang 488.7 7.5 0.1 92.5 10.0 11.1 (0.4) 2.5
Yunnan 524.1 7.9 0.0 92.1 4.9 0.9 (7.0) (6.8)
Zhejiang 438.0 9.3 0.1 90.6 3.0 3.5 (2.5) (1.1)
China tier-one LRG sector 15,286.5 18.1 3.4 78.5 6.4 5.2 (3.1) (2.8)
Note: For data of Liaoning, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and Fujian, their data includes the cities with state-planning status. Please refer to our glossary for a definition of terms. Sources: Local governments' Bureau of Statistics, Wind, S&P Global Ratings.

Table 3

Local and regional government fiscal profile (whole LRG)
Tier-one LRGs Adjusted total revenue Revenue composition (2023)(%) Operating balance as % of adjusted operating revenue Balance after capital accounts as % of adjusted total revenue
2023 (bil. RMB) Own operating revenue Own capital revenue Transfer payments 2021-2023 average 2023 2021-2023 average 2023
Anhui 1,068.0 37.9 20.6 41.5 14.4 19.1 (19.4) (20.9)
Beijing 992.8 63.0 20.5 16.5 19.6 19.0 (8.5) (9.1)
Chongqing 699.3 36.5 25.3 38.2 15.0 17.2 (20.3) (19.2)
Dalian 121.1 62.0 0.0 38.0 18.6 20.7 (12.1) (10)
Fujian 754.2 48.9 26.2 24.9 10.5 9.5 (22.4) (26.4)
Gansu 478.3 21.0 0.0 79.0 30.1 25.1 (19.9) (16.1)
Guangdong 2,166.3 65.8 18.9 15.3 6.6 8.6 (23.0) (25.6)
Guangxi 687.3 27.2 11.5 61.2 17.3 18.4 (13.8) (11.4)
Guizhou 835.2 25.4 26.8 47.8 19.6 21.2 (6.9) (2.9)
Hainan 265.1 36.2 15.3 48.5 23.1 20.6 (18.1) (22.2)
Hebei 1,158.3 38.6 17.7 43.7 18.3 20.1 (19.7) (17.7)
Heilongjiang 631.1 22.8 1.7 75.5 30.0 31.1 (6.2) (2.9)
Henan 1,245.5 37.5 14.2 48.2 19.0 16.9 (15.2) (18.6)
Hubei 1,153.6 34.3 22.7 43.0 17.7 19.0 (17.9) (15.7)
Hunan 1,110.7 31.2 22.6 46.1 16.1 17.3 (18.5) (19.9)
Inner Mongolia 729.4 42.3 0.0 57.7 32.5 30.6 (3.7) (7.2)
Jiangsu 2,304.5 44.5 43.3 12.1 10.2 10.6 (11.6) (13.1)
Jiangxi 889.5 34.4 0.0 65.6 9.4 10.4 (23.1) (19.8)
Jilin 487.8 22.9 11.2 65.9 24.2 24.7 (20.7) (17.6)
Liaoning 677.6 40.6 0.0 59.4 15.9 14.7 (12.3) (16.1)
Ningbo 295.4 61.9 29.1 9.0 15.2 12.4 (15.5) (22.2)
Ningxia 189.7 27.4 4.4 68.2 36.4 36.9 2.6 0.1
Qingdao 222.3 63.3 20.8 16.0 16.0 14.5 (21.1) (25.1)
Qinghai 218.8 18.0 2.7 79.4 31.4 31.6 (6.5) (6.7)
Shaanxi 863.0 41.5 19.1 39.5 23.5 20.2 (12.6) (14.3)
Shandong 1,637.4 47.7 27.9 24.3 11.5 10.1 (23.4) (28.2)
Shanghai 1,324.7 64.1 24.9 11.1 25.8 25.2 1.0 2.9
Shanxi 651.9 53.4 0.0 46.6 23.1 13.5 (11.7) (18.2)
Shenzhen 558.7 74.3 15.0 10.7 11.6 8.6 (14.4) (19.9)
Sichuan 1,695.1 34.2 25.1 40.7 21.0 21.6 (12.7) (12.2)
Tianjin 344.3 59.6 16.4 24.0 3.3 2.2 (33.6) (42.8)
Tibet 282.4 8.4 0.0 91.6 42.6 37.7 4.3 (4.2)
Xiamen 174.1 54.1 38.3 7.6 6.7 4.9 (18.7) (22)
Xinjiang 709.1 31.7 5.9 62.4 31.0 36.6 (12.4) (6)
Yunnan 727.2 29.6 0.0 70.4 22.5 21.6 (20.2) (16.3)
Zhejiang 1,897.9 47.1 42.3 10.6 4.3 1.7 (16.5) (19.4)
China LRG sector 28,876.0 41.8 20.1 38.1 17.8 17.8 (15.2) (15.9)
Note: For data of Liaoning, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and Fujian, their data includes the cities with state-planning status. Please refer to our glossary for a definition of terms. Sources: Local governments' Bureau of Statistics, S&P Global Ratings.

Table 4

Local and regional government direct debt profile
Tier-one LRGs LRG level Whole LRG
2023 direct debt (bil. RMB) 2023 direct debt excluding onlending (bil. RMB) 2023 direct debt % to GDP (%) Direct debt % to adjusted operating revenue (%) Direct debt excluding onlending % to adjusted operating revenue (%) Direct debt % to adjusted operating revenue (%) Direct debt % to adjusted total revenue (%)
2021-2023 average 2023 2021-2023 average 2023 2021-2023 average 2023 2021-2023 average 2023
Anhui 1,571.3 113.3 33.4 293.9 305.8 21.2 22.1 173.9 185.8 126.3 147.1
Beijing 1,137.6 227.2 26.0 190.4 205.7 42.9 41.1 136.6 144.2 104.8 114.6
Chongqing 1,225.8 327.5 40.7 304.8 334.0 87.1 89.2 217.0 239.5 154.2 175.3
Dalian 289.8 143.7 33.1 373.2 396.6 184.0 196.7 256.1 272.4 216.7 239.4
Fujian 1,381.1 25.2 25.4 521.2 557.7 9.5 10.2 225.4 249.3 152.3 183.1
Gansu 710.7 212.3 59.9 165.9 189.4 52.4 56.6 137.8 161.5 130.4 148.6
Guangdong 2,988.2 312.5 22.0 355.5 409.9 39.5 42.9 148.8 170.5 112.3 137.9
Guangxi 1,155.2 308.8 42.5 229.7 249.0 65.6 66.6 175.8 191.2 144.6 168.1
Guizhou 1,512.5 212.1 72.3 302.9 323.2 46.4 45.3 230.9 248.4 167.2 181.1
Hainan 410.6 141.1 54.4 227.2 238.3 70.8 81.9 169.6 183.6 142.9 154.9
Hebei 1,842.7 113.6 41.9 298.8 315.5 20.1 19.5 177.9 193.6 143.0 159.1
Heilongjiang 849.7 96.8 53.5 159.2 163.4 19.1 18.6 132.6 137.3 128.1 134.6
Henan 1,789.3 187.4 30.3 225.7 254.7 25.9 26.7 148.1 168.1 121.1 143.7
Hubei 1,562.6 57.1 28.0 254.7 262.6 10.1 9.6 170.6 176.4 124.5 135.5
Hunan 1,821.6 223.0 36.4 297.0 316.5 40.5 38.7 196.5 213.2 141.7 164.0
Inner Mongolia 1,107.0 115.7 45.0 233.6 236.6 24.9 24.7 161.1 164.4 148.9 151.8
Jiangsu 2,273.3 84.5 17.7 425.3 440.5 16.0 16.4 164.2 174.3 86.7 98.6
Jiangxi 1,270.9 130.6 39.5 260.8 280.7 29.7 28.8 175.6 188.4 125.5 142.9
Jilin 887.2 90.9 65.6 229.7 249.1 28.9 25.5 187.9 205.4 164.1 181.9
Liaoning 1,287.1 67.4 42.6 304.6 326.5 17.4 17.1 186.9 204.0 168.8 189.9
Ningbo 324.9 106.8 19.7 339.9 348.4 117.2 114.5 144.7 155.4 91.7 110.0
Ningxia 224.4 67.1 42.2 149.7 148.6 42.3 44.4 124.5 124.2 116.2 118.3
Qingdao 362.0 121.4 23.0 320.3 368.2 113.9 123.5 176.3 206.2 125.0 162.8
Qinghai 333.7 192.7 87.8 305.0 179.3 184.4 103.6 155.5 157.4 146.8 152.5
Shaanxi 1,085.5 210.0 32.1 221.9 232.0 44.7 44.9 146.6 155.9 115.9 125.8
Shandong 2,752.1 202.5 29.9 502.2 575.9 39.4 42.4 199.8 234.1 133.5 168.1
Shanghai 883.2 279.5 18.7 157.7 154.5 46.1 48.9 88.4 88.8 63.7 66.7
Shanxi 708.3 148.5 27.6 177.0 196.4 37.6 41.2 109.4 120.1 97.3 108.6
Shenzhen 269.2 90.5 7.8 66.0 87.8 22.0 29.5 44.3 56.8 36.4 48.2
Sichuan 2,027.0 132.9 33.7 232.1 247.1 16.2 16.2 151.8 160.2 109.4 119.6
Tianjin 1,111.8 308.6 66.4 613.1 684.3 173.0 189.9 340.3 386.9 274.8 322.9
Tibet 68.2 12.4 28.5 23.7 26.4 4.2 4.8 22.1 24.6 21.7 24.1
Xiamen 212.1 165.7 26.3 218.5 261.8 168.0 204.5 166.5 197.7 91.7 121.8
Xinjiang 1,024.5 115.8 53.6 196.1 210.7 36.2 23.8 146.6 154.1 135.4 144.5
Yunnan 1,444.1 311.0 48.1 249.3 281.0 57.1 60.5 194.2 219.1 174.0 198.6
Zhejiang 2,288.6 109.8 27.7 523.9 527.3 26.4 25.3 194.3 209.6 101.1 120.6
China tier-one LRG sector 40,735.7 5,766.1 30.5 268.5 289.1 38.9 39.5 165.3 180.9 122.6 141.1
Note: For data of Liaoning, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and Fujian, their data includes the cities with state-planning status. Please refer to our glossary for a definition of terms. Sources: Local governments' Bureau of Statistics, S&P Global Ratings.

Table 5

Local and regional government adjusted debt profile
Tier-one LRGs LRG level Whole LRG
2023 non-FI SOE debt (bil. RMB) 2023 LGFV debt (bil. RMB) 2023 adjusted DB % (%) 2023 adjusted DB % ex. on-lending (%) 2023 non-FI SOE debt (bil. RMB) 2023 LGFV debt (bil. RMB) 2023 adjusted DB as % of GDP (%) 2023 adjusted DB % (%)
Anhui 656.5 16.7 298.5 24.4 2,500.7 1,607.7 34.2 281.8
Beijing 2,617.2 94.0 214.9 56.1 3,268.2 265.7 6.1 160.1
Chongqing 814.0 299.0 376.6 154.8 2,248.4 1,566.8 52.0 410.0
Dalian 10.7 6.8 394.8 200.3 44.0 40.0 4.6 279.5
Fujian 559.0 9.3 558.6 13.9 1,744.6 599.5 11.0 251.2
Gansu 756.7 89.2 172.5 65.0 910.4 221.8 18.7 167.8
Guangdong 1,039.7 117.1 424.1 58.7 4,093.9 733.2 5.4 182.5
Guangxi 1,106.6 11.1 235.4 64.6 1,750.4 480.9 17.7 235.1
Guizhou 715.5 308.2 344.0 98.3 1,526.1 1,110.3 53.1 324.0
Hainan 100.4 3.4 238.6 83.2 112.9 13.2 1.7 186.7
Hebei 1,200.4 0.0 315.5 19.5 1,873.8 452.4 10.3 224.1
Heilongjiang 45.6 0.0 163.4 18.6 156.6 94.9 6.0 149.8
Henan 1,226.9 210.8 264.5 52.7 2,773.8 1,180.6 20.0 233.1
Hubei 882.1 0.0 262.6 9.6 3,168.8 1,980.5 35.5 295.1
Hunan 720.2 40.8 306.9 43.5 2,888.2 1,925.8 38.5 322.5
Inner Mongolia 263.9 0.0 236.6 24.7 296.4 18.9 0.8 166.6
Jiangsu 521.7 0.0 440.5 16.4 10,023.9 7,812.8 60.9 455.4
Jiangxi 614.8 11.9 282.6 31.4 2,459.3 1,200.0 37.3 274.4
Jilin 209.2 0.4 249.2 25.6 550.6 164.7 12.2 233.0
Liaoning 48.0 0.0 326.5 17.1 150.1 47.8 1.6 207.2
Ningbo 311.0 4.9 352.5 119.4 1,045.5 605.8 36.8 347.6
Ningxia 35.1 0.0 148.6 44.4 62.5 26.2 4.9 136.1
Qingdao 639.5 435.4 504.9 352.6 1,360.8 816.8 51.8 401.2
Qinghai 55.9 0.0 179.3 103.6 85.8 29.9 7.9 168.9
Shaanxi 1,422.3 0.0 232.0 44.9 2,840.1 1,037.7 30.7 253.7
Shandong 1,904.4 0.0 575.9 42.4 4,552.1 1,779.5 19.3 285.2
Shanghai 1,113.7 367.3 183.2 94.7 1,800.6 455.9 9.7 117.7
Shanxi 1,675.8 67.4 186.3 51.9 1,897.7 217.0 8.4 139.2
Shenzhen 1,086.1 51.5 101.2 44.8 1,115.0 55.0 1.6 66.7
Sichuan 1,431.2 0.0 247.1 16.2 5,146.9 2,352.3 39.1 262.9
Tianjin 994.8 761.1 604.2 345.1 1,443.6 1,206.9 72.1 459.2
Tibet 12.6 0.0 26.4 4.8 62.4 49.8 20.8 41.2
Xiamen 683.9 0.0 261.8 204.5 705.6 0.0 0.0 197.7
Xinjiang 329.6 11.0 209.0 25.6 766.7 307.3 16.1 180.9
Yunnan 1,192.2 0.0 281.0 60.5 1,655.8 361.7 12.0 236.4
Zhejiang 781.3 13.8 479.5 25.7 7,214.8 4,986.2 60.4 452.6
China tier-one LRG sector 27,778.8 2,931.1 293.2 56.5 74,296.7 35,805.4 26.8 269.8
Note: Please refer to our glossary for a definition of terms. Sources: Local governments' Bureau of Statistics, S&P Global Ratings.

Table 6

Local and regional government deposit and debt repayment (whole LRG)
Tier-one LRGs 2023 all deposit (bil. RMB) 2023 fiscal deposit (bil. RMB) 2025 debt repayment amount (bil. RMB) 2023 all deposit as % 2025 of debt repayment (x) 2023 fiscal deposit as % 2025 of debt repayment (x) Listed SOE market capitalization* (bil. RMB)
Anhui 1,231 150 110 11.2 1.4 305
Beijing 5,780 221 217 26.7 1.0 10,588
Chongqing 719 137 103 7.0 1.3 73
Dalian N.A. N.A. 30 N.A. N.A. 8
Fujian 943 96 68 13.9 1.4 302
Gansu 439 58 38 11.6 1.5 32
Guangdong 4,645 349 129 36.0 2.7 319
Guangxi 591 52 66 9.0 0.8 30
Guizhou 639 143 154 4.1 0.9 1,177
Hainan 210 N.A. 38 5.5 N.A. 27
Hebei 1,243 211 99 12.5 2.1 123
Heilongjiang 590 139 56 10.5 2.5 15
Henan N.A. N.A. 160 N.A. N.A. 83
Hubei 1,147 202 123 9.3 1.6 54
Hunan 1,166 159 151 7.7 1.1 92
Inner Mongolia 537 93 145 3.7 0.6 27
Jiangsu 3,486 341 169 20.6 2.0 397
Jiangxi 778 193 69 11.3 2.8 83
Jilin 453 69 44 10.4 1.6 37
Liaoning N.A. N.A. 103 N.A. N.A. 15
Ningbo 430 86 31 13.8 2.8 10
Ningxia 193 57 21 9.2 2.7 4
Qingdao 291 34 21 13.6 1.6 49
Qinghai 210 85 27 7.8 3.1 47
Shaanxi 748 1 80 9.4 0.0 326
Shandong 1,538 138 68 22.8 2.0 465
Shanghai 2,591 536 108 23.9 4.9 699
Shanxi 644 122 55 11.7 2.2 334
Shenzhen N.A. N/A 5 N.A. N.A. 201
Sichuan 1,902 224 129 14.7 1.7 301
Tianjin 411 82 72 5.7 1.1 30
Tibet 349 179 2 184.3 94.5 3
Xiamen 187 7 5 37.7 1.5 42
Xinjiang 709 162 17 42.2 9.6 38
Yunnan 879 98 134 6.6 0.7 54
Zhejiang N.A. N/A 112 N.A. N.A. 396
China LRG sector 35,677 4,423 2,957 12.1 1.5 16,786
Note: Please refer to our glossary for a definition of terms. *Data as of June 19, 2024. N.A.--Not available. Source: Local governments' Bureau of Statistics, WIND, S&P Global Ratings.

Table 7

Local and regional government's capacity to support the SOE sector
Tier-one LRGs LRG level Whole LRG
2023 SOE debt (bil. RMB) 2023 SOE debt as % of LRG adjusted total revenues (%) 2023 SOE leverage (x) 2023 SOE cash coverage for short-term debt (x) 2023 SOE debt (bil. RMB) 2023 SOE debt as % of LRG adjusted total revenues (%) 2023 SOE leverage (x) 2023 SOE cash coverage for short-term debt (x)
Anhui 656.5 126.1 7.5 1.9 2,500.7 234.2 17.3 1.2
Beijing 2,617.2 423.2 30.8 1.2 3,268.2 329.2 29.9 1.2
Chongqing 814.0 171.8 22.8 1.1 2,248.4 321.5 35.6 0.6
Dalian 10.7 13.1 82.1 1.6 44.0 36.3 17.5 0.8
Fujian 559.0 222.6 12.8 1.2 1,744.6 231.3 15.0 0.7
Gansu 756.7 193.8 46.2 0.8 910.4 190.3 53.1 0.7
Guangdong 1,039.7 140.6 19.2 1.6 4,093.9 189.0 28.0 1.3
Guangxi 1,106.6 235.4 44.1 1.1 1,750.4 254.7 45.5 0.8
Guizhou 715.5 145.3 39.5 0.6 1,526.1 182.7 40.1 0.4
Hainan 100.4 56.2 16.6 1.1 112.9 42.6 16.0 1.1
Hebei 1,200.4 204.3 12.1 0.4 1,873.8 161.8 16.2 0.4
Heilongjiang 45.6 8.7 20.5 0.5 156.6 24.8 31.8 1.1
Henan 1,226.9 172.3 22.3 0.7 2,773.8 222.7 30.0 0.5
Hubei 882.1 146.7 28.5 1.0 3,168.8 274.7 40.1 0.7
Hunan 720.2 123.7 30.2 2.9 2,888.2 260.0 45.8 0.7
Inner Mongolia 263.9 54.8 624.6 0.6 296.4 40.6 101.1 0.7
Jiangsu 521.7 98.4 11.4 1.3 10,023.9 435.0 42.0 0.6
Jiangxi 614.8 132.9 12.0 1.0 2,459.3 276.5 29.1 0.7
Jilin 209.2 57.9 16.1 1.4 550.6 112.9 14.6 0.7
Liaoning 48.0 12.1 109.0 1.7 150.1 22.1 27.2 1.2
Ningbo 311.0 202.4 166.6 0.6 1,045.5 353.9 76.1 0.4
Ningxia 35.1 23.1 9.0 1.3 62.5 32.9 12.5 1.0
Qingdao 639.5 560.1 20.4 0.5 1,360.8 612.0 31.0 0.4
Qinghai 55.9 29.7 2.8 1.0 85.8 39.2 4.2 0.8
Shaanxi 1,422.3 300.4 7.0 0.8 2,840.1 329.1 11.9 0.7
Shandong 1,904.4 389.5 10.7 0.9 4,552.1 278.0 14.9 0.6
Shanghai 1,113.7 170.4 12.3 2.2 1,800.6 135.9 15.4 1.9
Shanxi 1,675.8 457.8 8.0 0.8 1,897.7 291.1 8.7 0.8
Shenzhen 1,086.1 280.0 15.6 1.9 1,115.0 199.6 15.9 1.9
Sichuan 1,431.2 172.8 19.7 0.9 5,146.9 303.6 22.5 0.8
Tianjin 994.8 514.5 44.4 0.5 1,443.6 419.2 48.5 0.4
Tibet 12.6 4.9 17.9 1.0 62.4 22.1 27.3 0.5
Xiamen 683.9 564.2 17.8 1.3 705.6 405.4 18.2 1.3
Xinjiang 329.6 67.4 17.7 0.8 766.7 108.1 24.4 0.6
Yunnan 1,192.2 227.5 15.6 0.6 1,655.8 227.7 19.1 0.5
Zhejiang 781.3 178.4 8.7 2.2 7,214.8 380.1 33.2 0.7
China tier-one LRG sector 27,778.8 181.7 15.3 1.1 74,296.7 257.3 24.0 0.8
Note: Please refer to our glossary for a definition of terms. Sources: Local governments' Bureau of Statistics, S&P Global Ratings.

Glossary

Note on our data: We use preliminary budget data for 2023, while final budget data for 2022 and 2021. We estimate some missing data based on historical and sector trends for comparative purposes.

LRG:  Local and regional government.

Tier-one LRGs:   Provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and cities with state-planning status. Cities with state-planning status: Dalian, Qingdao, Ningbo, Xiamen, Shenzhen.

RMB:   Chinese renminbi.

Bil. RMB:   Billion of Chinese renminbi.

Investment growth:   Fixed-asset investment year-over-year growth.

Adjusted total revenue:   Sum of operating revenue, capital revenue, and transfer inflows.

Own operating revenue:   Operating revenues (excluding transfers), by using data extracted from LRGs' general public budgets.

Own capital revenue:   Capital revenues (excluding transfers), by using data extracted from LRGs' government-managed funds.

Transfer payments:   Transfer payments from general public budgets and government-managed funds.

OB %:   Operating balance as a percentage of adjusted operating revenue.

BACA %:   Adjusted total revenue subtracted by adjusted total expenditure, as a percentage of adjusted total revenues.

Adjusted operating revenue:   Own operating revenue plus transfer inflows from general public budgets.

Direct debt:   Debts directly issued under the name of a given LRG.

Direct debt excluding onlending:   LRG direct debt after deducting on-lent debt to lower tier governments.

Direct debt %:  Direct debt, as a percentage of an LRG's total revenues (note- this ratio suggests a soft guidance by China authority and is irrelevant to S&P credit metrics.)

SOEs:  State-owned enterprises. In this report, specific to nonfinancial institution state-owned enterprises controlled by LRGs; data extracted from Wind using issuers with outstanding onshore bond.

LGFVs:  Local government financing vehicle, a subset of SOEs. In this report, SOE that are classified as LGFV by data provider Wind.

Adjusted DB:  Adjusted debt burden; sum of direct debt and debt of LGFVs.

Adjusted DB ex. on-lending:   LRG direct debt excluding on-lending and LGFV debt.

Consolidated operating revenues:  LRGs' adjusted operating revenues, plus operating revenue of LGFVs.

Adjusted DB %:  Adjusted DB, as a percentage of consolidated operating revenues of an LRG and those of LGFVs.

Adjusted DB % ex. on-lending:  Adjusted DB excluding on-lending to lower-tier LRGs, as a percentage of operating revenues of an LRG and those of LGFVs.

Fiscal deposit:  Cash reserves of LRGs in the same region used to meet LRGs' coming fiscal activities.

All deposits:  Fiscal deposits of LRGs in the same region, also incorporating deposits under government institutions--usually nongovernment divisions.

SOE leverage:   Aggregated debt of SOEs divided by aggregated EBITDA of SOEs.

SOE cash coverage for short-term debt:   SOEs' cash and short-term securities measured against their short-term debt.

Related Criteria

Related Research

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analyst:Lorraine Liu, Hong Kong +852 2532 8001;
lorraine.liu2@spglobal.com
Secondary Contact:Wenyin Huang, Singapore +65 6216 1052;
Wenyin.Huang@spglobal.com
Research Assistants:Chen Guo, Hong Kong
Zilu Yang, HANGZHOU

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