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Evolving Risks For Credit Quality In U.S. Capital Goods

Large, multiyear investments for infrastructure, manufacturing facilities, and energy transition supported by government stimulus appear to be moderating a cyclical downturn in the interest-sensitive U.S. capital goods sector. Manufacturing and distribution took a 12-18 month pause in 2023 and early 2024, reflected in widespread destocking that is delivering two-year run-rate real growth of less than 1% in 2023-24. Now, S&P Global economists are forecasting that real equipment growth will jump to 4.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026 following a burst in construction of manufacturing facilities. All the new plants under construction in the U.S. will need equipment installed in the next 18-36 months, which feeds U.S. capital goods industry revenues (Chart 1).

Chart 1

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S&P Global Ratings recently published an assessment of the potential credit materiality of some megatrends (see "White Paper: Assessing How Megatrends May Influence Credit Ratings," April 18, 2024). Following that theme, in this report, we examine some of the secular and cyclical changes that could define profitable growth and credit quality for companies in U.S. capital goods over the next several years. In particular, we're looking for the transmission channels that could translate into profit effects or capital structure changes. For example, the energy transition will likely have important government sponsorship, but labor availability is exposed to a demographic tide of retirements in advanced economies, which won't be resolved with policy alone.

At the conclusion of this report, we provide a ranking list for all 135 rated issuers in U.S. capital goods.

Credit Quality Looks Solid in 2024

Companies we rate in the U.S. capital goods industry showed remarkable resilience through a cost spike and supply-chain difficulties in 2022 and 2023, effectively passing on costs and improving profits in the last few years (Chart 2). In 2024, materials and energy costs have dropped, but labor and transportation costs have been sticky; supply chains steadied but still look sensitive to disruption; and trade friction persists for business models aiming to return to just-in-time production. Debt usage has been limited mostly to refinancing, so balance sheets are in good shape. In 2023 we were running credit stress test in anticipation of a recession, but industry conditions held steady in 2024 and appear to be improving for 2025 and 2026 (see "Heavy Lift: U.S. Capital Goods Companies Leverage A Big Backlog To Defend Credit In 2023," Feb. 3, 2023).

Chart 2

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Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appear to be picking up in U.S. capital goods after the recent cycle of rising interest rates. Strategic portfolio changes through acquisitions and divestitures are inherent to these companies' corporate development plans, especially now with big changes in markets, products, and production. Credit ratios among large issuers are robust and equity prices are generally strong, providing good financial firepower for large strategic transactions that recast competitive positions or a spate of bolt-ons owned by private equity seeking a financial exit. For example, Emerson's acquisition of National Instruments, Roper's acquisition of Procare Solutions, and Honeywell's acquisition of Global Access Solutions from Carrier are good indications of the appetite for businesses with a strong technology offering. Also, businesses serving old-economy sectors like oil and gas, chemicals, construction, and mining might be favored for more consolidation after some retrenchment in those subsectors.

Labor Could Constrain Output

The issuers we rate appear to have adequate labor availability to satisfy our 2024 base case expectation of slightly higher manufacturing activity. However, considering demand for growing volumes through 2026 and changes in the makeup of the U.S. workforce, skilled manufacturing labor could hinder output growth, or at least it will cost more. Hourly wage growth in the U.S. has risen to 4.8% annually since 2020, up from an average of 2.4% for the decade before.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently reported widespread labor productivity declines among manufacturing industries in 2023 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Productivity and Costs by Industry: Manufacturing and Mining Industries – 2023", April 25, 2024). Of the 51 industries in durable manufacturing, 41 had productivity decreases in 2023. Productivity in 2023 fell in all seven subsegments of the BLS' machinery category, led by a 5.4% decline in industrial machinery, a 7.5% drop in HVAC, and 4.8% in turbine and power transmission equipment. That lower labor productivity is partly a function of reduced manufacturing activity amid widespread destocking and steady employment levels in 2023, but it also extends a longer trend of lower labor productivity. Over the long era of trade globalization (1987-2023), the BLS data indicate that U.S. labor productivity improved in 82 of 91 manufacturing and mining industries. In the last five years, however, U.S. labor productivity improved in only 39 of those 91 industries.

Accelerated retirements during pandemic shutdowns compounded the steady demographic shift of experienced baby boomers leaving the workforce. Available jobs per unemployed person increased sharply across the board through the COVID rebound (2021-2022), which is partly why some companies could not satisfy demand (see Chart 3). Labor market conditions improved overall in late 2023 as available jobs per worker declined, but this measure kept going up in construction and manufacturing. Compounding this tight market, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will lead to 900,000 job openings per year over the next decade to build infrastructure and reinvigorate the manufacturing sector. ("Sustainability Insights: Research: How Changing Workforce Dynamics May Affect U.S. Companies," Aug. 1, 2023.).

Chart 3

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Labor availability affects output, costs, prices, and profits.   Labor costs broadly represented about 33% of the total value of durable goods production in 2022, according to the BLS. Labor's share of output has been rising for almost a decade since it troughed at 30.6% in 2014, and it appears elevated wage growth could persist through a generational change in workforce composition. The data in Chart 4 show that unit labor costs in durable goods manufacturing has been rising in the U.S. since before the pandemic (BLS calculates unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity). Wage increases remain elevated relative to pre-COVID levels, but the steepest increases might be over. Our economists expect a moderation of U.S. wage growth to 3.5%-4.0% in 2024, but total labor costs will likely be stickier than in most cycles as companies retain skilled and experienced workers. Cornell University's School of Industrial and Labor Relations Labor Action Tracker 2023 Annual Report highlights that work stoppages and the number of workers involved grew in 2022 and 2023. The report explains that "Workers' top three demands in work stoppages were better pay, improved health and safety, and increased staffing."

Chart 4

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Tight labor could impede onshoring, but friendshoring looks good.   The onshoring of manufacturing capacity to the U.S. to mitigate potential supply chain disruptions could further strain U.S. labor markets. Trade tensions with China and that country's declining working-age population impinge on its position as a reliable, low-cost source of good-quality materials and components. On the other hand, numerous companies indicate that Mexico has ample labor, while Canada's population growth hit a record in 2023 along with record levels of immigration.

All that said, a reconsideration of population statistics might have just added 3 million individuals to North America in the last year. This should help with output and costs, but only if those people are skilled and live in an employment hotspot. A surge in migration to the U.S. in 2023 propelled the working age population, which eased labor costs (Chart 5). S&P Global economists recently highlighted research indicating that "net immigration in 2023 was approximately 2 million above what was projected earlier, as suggested by a new estimate of population growth from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and an analytical piece on immigration published by Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson at The Hamilton Project in March 2024." (See "Economic Outlook U.S. Q2 2024: Heading For An Encore," March 26, 2024.) In September 2023, Statistics Canada added more than 1 million non-permanent residents to its population count after an analysis by Benjamin Tal, the Deputy Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets. That accounts for a whopping 2.5% increase in Canada's population count, with pressing policy implications for housing and education (CIBC Economic In Focus, "Counting Heads In Canada -- A Conundrum," Aug. 30, 2023).

Chart 5

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Automation gains are not automatic.   We expect manufacturers will continue to automate aspects of production to reduce the amount and cost of labor required. This trend is a clear demand tailwind for the automation equipment and solutions providers we rate, but large automation projects are expensive and risky for manufacturers. The large-scale automation of manufacturing still appears difficult and expensive. Meanwhile, this retooling will also demand new skills on new equipment to sustain safe manufacturing for a labor force in transition.

How Labor Could Influence Credit Ratings in U.S. Capital Goods
  • Companies like CAT, Deere, and Cummins all have world-scale facilities in the U.S. Midwest, which has a declining share of the U.S. population. Deere experienced its first strike in 30 years in 2021, which was a harbinger of higher wages across the U.S. industrial economy, as well as tighter manufacturing output that boosted pricing and corporate profits.
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts that wages in the Davenport, Iowa/Moline, Ill. region could rise 3.4%-4% through 2027 after increasing more than 4% in each of 2022 and 2023. The population aged 64 and older could grow 1.4% annually 2022-27, while the total population drops 1% over the same timeframe, for a clear decline in the working age population. Even with migration and growing populations, wages in manufacturing hubs in the U.S. south still appear set to rise 3%-4% for the next few years. (S&P Global Market Intelligence Metro Analysis: Forecast Data: Annual Data - Davenport-Moline, IA-IL, June 3, 2024; Greensboro-High Point NC, Spring 2024; Greenville SC, Spring 2024; Fort Worth TX, Spring 2024; and Birmingham AL, Spring 2024.)
  • Many of the manufacturers and distributors we rate have expansive footprints that spreads production and risks, with hundreds of plants in dozens of U.S. states and countries and thousands of suppliers for the average investment-grade corporate. Second, many manufacturers (and most distributors) use an "in-region-for-region" approach that positions facilities in or near their important markets to improve service levels or reduce costs. Also, larger companies are often advantaged by their positions as an employer-of-choice in smaller cities.
  • Issuers that serve the aerospace industry (Parker-Hannifin, Honeywell, RBC Bearings, Eaton) face uneven build rates in the U.S., some of which can be tied back to workforce changes in that industry. Persistent tailwinds in aerospace and broader business diversity are mostly offsetting disruptions for those issuers. Also, aerospace demand is steady around the world, and margins are good on parts and service for an aging fleet of aircraft.

Supply Chains Normalize For A New Normal

The S&P Global Price and Supply Monitor (April 2, 2024) notes that, "Global supply shortages were broadly in line with the long-run average at the end of the first quarter of the year." Capital goods supply chains are generally improved in 2024, and most companies converted on large backlogs amid widespread destocking in 2023. However, inventories appear higher for longer, as companies keep larger safety stocks for a variety of reasons. First, the cost of most inputs is 10%-20% higher than in 2019, which causes more inventory dollars at any given level of business activity. Also, Chart 6 shows the industry's inventory-to-sales remains high, running at 125%-130% of pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and 2023. Most companies seek to reduce inventory in 2024, in part by improving supply chain data and analysis. However, we believe these efforts are likely run up against the realities of geopolitical tensions, transportation bottlenecks, tariff barriers, and stocking up new facilities in new places.

Chart 6

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Geopolitical and transportation shocks could challenge sourcing.   The Red Sea conflict and the Panama Canal drought are just two examples of frictions that coincide to disrupt supply chains and extend the corporate cash flow cycle. Capital goods industry supply chains often include several tiers, meaning that suppliers of their component inputs often have their own suppliers of component inputs, which in turn rely on other manufacturers throughout the supply chain. Furthermore, many companies have added new suppliers in new countries since 2019 when trade tensions flared between the U.S. and China. Each tier or border can add complexity and risk, including lower ability to control and to gain visibility on bottlenecks.

Tariff changes appear over the horizon of U.S. elections.   U.S. capital goods manufacturers currently face a low overall tariff burden on imported components. However, geopolitical tension, particularly with China, could result in escalating reciprocal tariffs which could continue raising input costs. U.S. capital goods companies steadily grew profits during 2018 and 2019, the most recent period of escalating tariff levels.

Inputs could keep testing price-cost.   S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates that energy, steel, and nonferrous metals each account for about 15% of the total materials costs for a diversified global manufacturer (Material Price Index by S&P Global Market Intelligence, June 4, 2024). Further, chemicals account for 20%-25%, so that commodities likely combine for 60%-70% of materials input costs across the range of companies we rate. In recent years, technology inputs such as semiconductors have grown to more than 10% of input costs as manufacturers increase the automation of capital items, essentially replacing energy's share of costs over that period, which has declined to about 14% from 24%. The cost, availability, and strategic importance of semiconductors has prompted a boom in manufacturing construction in the U.S. ("CHIPS Act Funding To Intel Sparks Revival For U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing," March 27, 2024). Most metals prices remain 20% higher than before the pandemic, and tight inventories and higher production costs could keep those prices elevated ("S&P Global Ratings Metal Price Assumptions: Prices Rise On Tight Supply And Higher Costs," May 2, 2024). Chemicals prices appear ready for a rebound after dropping sharply in 2023 ("CreditWeek: Is The Slumping Chemicals Sector Set For An Earnings Rebound?" May 23, 2024), and energy costs appear to have settled down after big swings caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

How Supply Chains Could Influence Credit Ratings in U.S. Capital Goods
  • Price increases in capital goods flowed to the organic growth of industrial distributors like Grainger, WESCO, Alta Equipment, and DXP. EBITDA margins for industrial distributors expanded to more than 12% in 2022 and 2023 from about 10% 2019-21. EBITDA dollars for that subsector almost doubled to $6 billion in 2023 from $3.7 billion in 2021. Slower price growth in the next few years should slow margin expansion as persistent wage and rent growth eats into slower comparable sales growth, but supply chain disruptions could yet again put a price premium on product availability.
  • Large manufacturers showed that competitive heft mattered for sourcing and pricing when costs rose on widespread shortages. The 45 investment-grade issuers in the portfolio increased EBITDA margins 200 basis points (bps) to 21.5% in 2023 from 19.5% in 2022. By comparison, the 88 spec-grade issuers in the industry increased EBITDA margins only 20 bps to 15.4% in 2023 from 15.2% in 2022.
  • The 2022 disruption appears behind smaller manufacturers (Hyster-Yale, Park-Ohio, Vertiv), but shortages exposed the importance of competitive strength relative to suppliers of scarce inputs, as well as sourcing breadth. These credit stories now reflect more reliable supply chains amid strengthening industry fundamentals.

Interest Rates Should Have Been A Headwind By Now

Tighter monetary policy typically cools U.S. manufacturing production. In all but one instance since 1980, manufacturing was flat or declined in real terms (Chart 8). A higher cost of capital and slower economic growth should both decrease investment. It takes time for firms to adjust capex budgets, so any capital goods demand weakness could still lag the interest rate cycle peak by a year or two. That said, rising interest rates put a chill on M&A and refinancing, but increasing acceptance of higher rates for longer helped unfreeze debt issuance in the first half of 2024. A stronger consensus on valuations among financial sponsor-owned companies could help unstick transactions in that space.

Chart 7

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Megaprojects and megatrends could sustain demand.   Our base case anticipates the Fed Funds Rate will remain elevated above 2.9% and the 10-year treasury above 3.3% through 2026. Even so, megaprojects and megatrends--including onshoring, automation, and the energy transition--support demand and offset cyclical declines in other areas. Multiyear government investments are spurring long-term investments in technology industries and infrastructure, boosting overall demand for products like HVAC, sensors, or emissions and flow control. But we expect uneven growth because of lumpy project investment, changes in technologies and economics for new business models, and any range of policy changes around the world. Even higher rates could challenge the rationale for some investments, and funding for large projects still relies on receptive capital markets.

Low-rated issuers carry a heavier interest burden on the way to refinancing.   Almost half of the issuers we rate in U.S. capital goods are rated 'B' or lower, and many of these are leveraged buyouts from the 2017-18 or 2020-21 debt booms. Maturities of five- and seven-year term debt started in 2024, and many issuers face refinancing with new expectations for the valuation of some highly leveraged companies and their securities. These companies currently account for about $60 billion of rated debt, compared to about $250 billion for issuers rated 'B+' and higher. Of that $60 billion of debt outstanding, about $10 billion needs to be refinanced by 2026, and most of that is for issuers rated 'B-' or 'CCC+'. Some of those 2025 and 2026 maturities, however, are for companies with maturities in 2028, so refinancing pressure is already building. Upgrades and downgrades are about balanced since the beginning of 2023, but one-third of this low-rated cohort in U.S. capital goods has a negative outlook, because earnings underperformed targets and debt leverage is high.

Chart 8

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How Interest Rates Could Influence Credit Ratings in U.S. Capital Goods
  • Financing large equipment outlays has important implications for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). For example, the combination of higher interest rates and lower crop prices in 2023 have put the brakes on orders for farm equipment in the U.S. (Deere, AGCO Corp., CNH Industrial N.V.). By comparison, business conditions in nonresidential construction, oil and gas, and mining still support steady order levels and good pricing, but any of these volatile subsegments can slow capital spending dramatically in a sector downturn.
  • Equipment end users have been using rentals to preserve capital, which becomes increasingly attractive with higher interest rates (United Rentals, Herc, H&E Equipment Services Inc., EquipmentShare.com Inc.). High interest rates make original equipment more costly, because most customers finance versus outright purchase large construction equipment. On the other hand, high interest rates could eventually weigh on rates of return for construction projects, which can dampen demand quickly.
  • Megaprojects and fiscal support need receptive capital markets. However projects are sponsored (public or private), the spending contemplated for infrastructure will require access to debt capital markets. A record deficit in the U.S. is already driving spending growth, but pushback from suppliers of capital could chill funding.

Energy Transition Will Demand Lots Of Capital Goods

The energy transition is an issue capital goods companies can help resolve. Many capital goods companies serve the energy sector, including hydrocarbon and electricity production and transmission, which are the backbone of this transition. A few, on the other hand, are profoundly exposed to carbon-based fuels that could face substitution if technology advances. Investments in emerging energy technologies like offshore wind or small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) have yet to demonstrate financial viability for equipment manufacturers or their utility customers.

Value chain complexity will be a key challenge.   Most of the industry's carbon emissions are Scope 3, meaning they come from the inputs or product use that represents a company's value chain. Companies typically have less control over these emissions compared to those from their direct operations (Scope 1) and the power they purchase (Scope 2).

Companies must adjust and adapt their products.   As they compete to serve a zero-emissions world, companies will help their customers lower their own carbon emissions and achieve their decarbonization goals. Current targets agreed to by the world's major economies under the Paris Agreement could require tripling global energy transition investment (including all decarbonization) to more than $5 trillion each year between 2023 and 2050 (International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023). As companies compete to develop low-/no-carbon solutions, technological change will proliferate. Incumbent infrastructure providers could benefit from their existing position in the energy ecosystem and domain knowledge. Overall, we believe many U.S. Capital goods companies will earn more from the energy transition than they spend on it.

Chart 9

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Regulatory changes will influence demand.   Rule changes in numerous municipalities across the U.S. have mushroomed into larger statewide restrictions and bans on gasoline-powered lawn tools, and are rescoping the product offering for those manufacturers. But market leaders will likely remain market leaders, either by innovation or acquisition. In 2023, in contrast, "shipments of heat pumps (which are electric and more environmentally friendly) in Europe decelerated partially due to changing regulations but also due to a lower gas/electricity price spread and a softer macroeconomic environment." ("Industry Credit Outlook 2024: Capital Goods," Jan. 9, 2024). The next U.S. administration could cut or weaken fiscal stimulus for the energy transition, which could challenge the cost benefit for some prospective investments. Further, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in Europe forces companies in some commodity industries importing goods into the EU to calculate and disclose greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embedded in the imported goods. These mechanisms don't apply in this industry, but the EU plans to review exactly which products should be included in the future.

Decarbonization costs look manageable.   The capital goods industry's carbon intensity is fairly low compared to utilities, construction materials, and metals, but heavy manufacturing will always need significant amounts of energy (see "Sustainability Insights: Climate Transition Risk: Historical Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends For Global Industries," Nov. 22, 2023). As companies redesign production or products to reduce their carbon footprints, important and persistent research and development (R&D) costs for some firms could pressure profitability in the event of a downturn. However, we are assuming most U.S. capital goods companies we rate will meet their decarbonization ambitions within the envelope of current R&D levels. The operating and capital investment required to transition to low-carbon products and business models appears manageable, especially if companies eventually pass on incremental costs to customers.

Chart 10

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How Energy Transition Could Influence Credit Ratings in U.S. Capital Goods
  • Natural gas and even coal-fired turbines have been reliable profit producers for large manufacturers over the last few years (GE Vernova,WEC US Holdings Ltd), especially with energy security concerns around the world. The refurbishment or expansion of the existing fleet of large nuclear reactors is a potential opportunity, but new nuclear capacity in North America could be decades away.
  • The profitable manufacture of next-generation renewable power equipment remains elusive, as early-stage offshore wind projects in the U.S. get completely rescoped from the cost of equipment through to utility rates (GE Vernova, Siemens Energy). Also, technologies like SMRs are in their infancy with no track record of profitable development.
  • Costs and reliability for solar projects, batteries, and backup systems have improved in recent years, boosting investment in those technologies. Demand for backup power (Generac, Kohler Energy [Discovery Energy Holdings IV L.P.], CAT, Cummins) is a persistent trend for businesses and homeowners as physical asset risks rise with climate change.
  • The large HVAC companies we rate (Carrier, Johnson Controls, Trane, and Lennox) should benefit from above-average growth compared to most peers, but with potentially more volatility owing to exposure to residential and commercial construction cycles. Regulatory changes around the world offer a bumpy path to generally favorable demand with growing needs for climate control.
  • Energy transition will sunset more important products, but probably not without a step-change in technologies. Vontier is a global leader in gasoline fuel pumps, Cummins is the global leader in diesel engines, and CAT is a global leader in diesel-fueled equipment. Even if fueling station capacity isn't growing, we expect a long horizon of profitability as Vontier repositions its products for electric vehicles. And diesel engines will be difficult to replace for high-horsepower remote work.

Technology Will Magnify--Or Mitigate--Other Evolving Risks

Technological advantage and the risk of technological displacement are key determinants of competitive advantage. Falling behind in automation, data analysis and artificial intelligence, or cybersecurity could weaken competitive advantages for U.S. capital goods companies. These big technological changes will necessitate persistent R&D spending, as well as acquiring niche or nascent companies, even if economic or business conditions weaken.

Automation could support labor productivity.   For some companies, automation could alleviate tight labor and simplify supply chains. The automation companies we rate offer manufacturers sophisticated solutions that could allow them to improve the performance of production lines. As manufacturing has become more technologically advanced, businesses have been using robotics, AI, and machine-learning supply-chain management systems and quality-control processes to increase efficiency, improve quality control, and automate repetitive tasks. This should continue to fuel demand for sensors and automated systems that track product quality in real time, analyze large amounts of data, and drive the robotics necessary to handle repetitive tasks that could increase productivity and reduce worker injuries.

Data availability will dictate the pace of the digital transformation.   Sensors and data management will continue to proliferate across the industry. Equipment manufacturers, particularly those serving the competitive agriculture and construction industries, are rushing to gather data to increase machine efficiency. Return on investment is a key customer value proposition, and we think U.S. capital goods companies are still at the stage of data gathering that precedes artificial intelligence providing a demonstrable advantage.

Cyber risks lurk in every system.   Software and connectivity are increasingly important in industrial equipment. U.S. capital goods companies have reported fewer than 10 cyber incidents over the past two years, and we believe the impact on sales and credit metrics was limited in each case. Despite the lack of high-impact financial losses in the industry to date, companies increasing their data connections with customers face growing risks from technological incursions. To date, we believe these incidents have been more targeted to holding companies for ransom, rather than intellectual property theft, which is likely a growing issue with more connected hardware. We believe the new U.S. cybersecurity reporting requirement will help clarify which public companies might lag peers.

How Technology Could Influence Credit Ratings in U.S. Capital Goods
  • Automation is costly initially, but we believe companies in numerous markets will continue with incremental automation investments, largely to remain competitive and defend profitability, as well as to position their manufacturing capabilities with broader trends like supply chain integration. Also, highly automated product offerings from market leaders like Deere and CAT raise the table stakes for the entire product ecosystem (competitors, suppliers, repairs).
  • Demand for automation should remain solid, with low- to mid-single-digit organic growth over the next few years for companies in automation-related sectors. The growth is not dramatic, but the strategic imperative for spending on technology in manufacturing should give this subsector more sustainably defensive growth, even if broader spending pulls back.
  • Cyberattacks have not inflicted severe credit damage yet. Johnson Controls (JCI) offers some of the most digitally connected products in the capital goods industry, and a cybersecurity incident struck its internal information technology infrastructure and applications, which caused order processing and logistics disruptions and delays, affected the timing of its financial reporting, and added expenses for incident response and remediation. The incident did not affect the operations of JCI's digital products and services or customer data.

Appendix 1: Issuer Ranking

The following list ranks U.S. capital goods companies that S&P Global Ratings rates based on rating and outlook. Investment-grade companies with the same rating and outlook are ranked by stand-alone credit profile, business risk profile, and financial risk profile. Speculative-grade companies with the same rating and outlook are ordered by stand-alone credit profile, financial risk profile, and business risk profile. If not distinguished by these factors, companies are listed in alphabetical order. The ratings and scores in this report are as of June 10, 2024.

Table 1

Issuer ranking: U.S. capital goods companies, strongest to weakest
Company Issuer credit rating Outlook SACP Business risk profile Financial risk profile Primary analyst

Koch Companies LLC

AA- Stable aa- Satisfactory Minimal Donald Marleau, CFA

Grainger (W.W.) Inc.

A+ Stable a+ Strong Minimal Ariel Silverberg

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

A+ Stable a+ Strong Modest Henry Fukuchi

Georgia-Pacific LLC

A+ Stable a Strong Modest Ariel Silverberg

Emerson Electric Co.

A Stable a Strong Minimal Henry Fukuchi

Caterpillar Inc.

A Stable a Strong Modest Trevor Martin, CFA

Honeywell International Inc.

A Stable a Strong Modest Henry Fukuchi

Deere & Co.

A Stable a Strong Intermediate Trevor Martin, CFA

Cummins Inc.

A Stable a Satisfactory Minimal Josh Katz, CPA

Rockwell Automation Inc.

A Negative a Strong Intermediate Henry Fukuchi

Eaton Corp. PLC

A- Stable a- Strong Intermediate Henry Fukuchi

Snap-on Inc.

A- Stable a- Satisfactory Minimal Svetlana Olsha, CFA

Hubbell Inc.

BBB+ Stable bbb+ Strong Intermediate Michael Wiemers

Johnson Controls International PLC

BBB+ Stable bbb+ Strong Intermediate Ariel Silverberg

Parker-Hannifin Corp.

BBB+ Stable bbb+ Strong Intermediate Svetlana Olsha, CFA

Roper Technologies Inc.

BBB+ Stable bbb+ Strong Intermediate Henry Fukuchi

Trane Technologies PLC

BBB+ Stable bbb+ Satisfactory Modest Michael Wiemers

AMETEK Inc.

BBB+ Stable bbb+ Satisfactory Modest Nicole Foote, CFA

Dover Corp.

BBB+ Stable bbb+ Satisfactory Intermediate Henry Fukuchi

3M Co.

BBB+ Negative bbb+ Strong Intermediate Donald Marleau, CFA

Carrier Global Corp.

BBB Positive bbb Strong Intermediate Michael Wiemers

IDEX Corp.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Minimal Nicole Foote, CFA

ITT Inc.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Minimal Paul Crane

Acuity Brands Inc.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Modest Michael Wiemers

Carlisle Cos. Inc.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Modest Nicole Foote, CFA

Ingersoll Rand Inc.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Modest Josh Katz, CPA

Kennametal Inc.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Modest Michael Wiemers

Oshkosh Corp.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Modest Josh Katz, CPA

Toro Co. (The)

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Modest Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Fortive Corp.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Intermediate Henry Fukuchi

Lennox International Inc.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Intermediate Ariel Silverberg

Nordson Corp.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Intermediate Josh Katz, CPA

Otis Worldwide Corp.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Intermediate Josh Katz, CPA

Teledyne Technologies Inc.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Intermediate Paul Crane

Veralto Corp.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Intermediate Tyrone Daniel

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp.

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Intermediate Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Xylem

BBB Stable bbb Satisfactory Intermediate Josh Katz, CPA

AGCO Corp.

BBB- Positive bbb- Satisfactory Modest Trevor Martin, CFA

Flowserve Corp.

BBB- Stable bbb- Satisfactory Intermediate Michael Wiemers

Leggett & Platt Inc.

BBB- Stable bbb- Satisfactory Intermediate Josh Katz, CPA

nVent Electric plc

BBB- Stable bbb- Satisfactory Intermediate Trevor Martin, CFA

Pentair plc

BBB- Stable bbb- Satisfactory Intermediate Josh Katz, CPA

Timken Co.

BBB- Stable bbb- Satisfactory Intermediate Michael Wiemers

Vontier Corp.

BBB- Stable bbb- Satisfactory Intermediate Henry Fukuchi

GE Vernova Inc.

BBB- Stable bbb- Fair Minimal Trevor Martin, CFA

Heico Cos. LLC (The)

BBB- Stable bbb- Fair Intermediate Nicole Foote, CFA

Atkore Inc.

BB+ Stable bb+ Fair Modest Tyrone Daniel

United Rentals Inc.

BB+ Stable bb+ Satisfactory Intermediate Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

EnerSys

BB+ Stable bb+ Fair Intermediate Paul Crane

ESAB Corp.

BB+ Stable bb+ Fair Intermediate Nicole Foote, CFA

Generac Power Systems Inc.

BB+ Stable bb+ Fair Intermediate Brian Jones

Hillenbrand Inc.

BB+ Stable bb+ Satisfactory Significant Ariel Silverberg

Regal Rexnord Corp.

BB+ Stable bb+ Satisfactory Significant Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Resideo Technologies Inc.

BB+ Negative bb+ Satisfactory Significant Ariel Silverberg

Sylvamo Corp.

BB Positive bb Fair Intermediate Tyrone Daniel

Vertiv Group Corp.

BB Positive bb Fair Intermediate Brian Jones

Mueller Water Products Inc.

BB Stable bb Fair Intermediate Josh Katz, CPA

Terex Corp.

BB Stable bb Fair Intermediate Nicole Foote, CFA

WESCO International Inc.

BB Stable bb Satisfactory Significant Ariel Silverberg

Amsted Industries Inc.

BB Stable bb Fair Significant Josh Katz, CPA

EnPro Industries Inc.

BB Stable bb Fair Significant Tyrone Daniel

HERC Holdings Inc.

BB Stable bb Fair Significant Paul Crane

RBC Bearings Inc.

BB Stable bb Fair Aggressive Brian Jones

Chart Industries Inc.

BB- Stable bb- Fair Significant Nicole Foote, CFA

Clearwater Paper Corp.

BB- Stable bb- Weak Significant Tyrone Daniel

Gates Global LLC

BB- Stable bb- Fair Aggressive Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

H&E Equipment Services Inc.

BB- Stable bb- Weak Aggressive Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

EMRLD Borrower LP

BB- Stable bb- Satisfactory Highly Leveraged Michael Wiemers

Greenbrier Cos. Inc. (The)

BB- Negative bb- Fair Aggressive Michael Wiemers

Mirion Technologies Inc.

B+ Stable b+ Weak Significant Tyrone Daniel

Array Technologies Inc.

B+ Stable b+ Fair Aggressive Brian Jones

Enviri Corp.

B+ Stable b+ Fair Aggressive Paul Crane

Columbus McKinnon Corp.

B+ Stable b+ Weak Aggressive Paul Crane

J.B. Poindexter & Co. Inc.

B+ Stable b+ Weak Aggressive Josh Katz, CPA

WEC US Holdings Ltd

B+ Stable b+ Fair Highly Leveraged Paul Crane

Concrete Pumping Holdings Inc.

B Positive b Weak Aggressive Paul Crane

Alta Equipment Group Inc.

B Stable b Weak Aggressive Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Hyster-Yale Inc.

B Stable b Weak Aggressive Brian Jones

MRC Global (US) Inc.

B Stable b Weak Aggressive Michael Wiemers

Titan International Inc.

B Stable b Weak Aggressive Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Filtration Group Corp.

B Stable b Fair Highly Leveraged Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Indicor LLC

B Stable b Fair Highly Leveraged Paul Crane

Kito Crosby Limited

B Stable b Fair Highly Leveraged Tyrone Daniel

Madison IAQ LLC

B Stable b Fair Highly Leveraged Ariel Silverberg

SPX FLOW Inc.

B Stable b Fair Highly Leveraged Svetlana Olsha, CFA

Sunsource Borrower, LLC

B Stable b Fair Highly Leveraged Paul Crane

American Trailer World Corp.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Brian Jones

Custom Truck One Source Inc.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Nicole Foote, CFA

Discovery Energy Holdings IV, LP

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Brian Jones

DS Parent Inc.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Henry Fukuchi

DXP Enterprises Inc.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Michael Wiemers

EquipmentShare.com Inc.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Johnstone Supply Intermediate, LLC

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Brian Jones

LSF12 Badger Bidco, LLC

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Paul Crane

Novae LLC

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Brian Jones

Park-Ohio Industries Inc.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Josh Katz, CPA

Manitowoc Co. Inc. (The)

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Svetlana Olsha, CFA

Titan Purchaser Inc.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Nicole Foote, CFA

Vector WP MidCo Inc.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Nicole Foote, CFA

Watlow Electric Manufacturing Co.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Michael Wiemers

WireCo WorldGroup Inc.

B Stable b Weak Highly Leveraged Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

CPM Holdings Inc.

B Negative b Weak Highly Leveraged Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Hyperion Materials & Technologies Inc.

B Negative b Weak Highly Leveraged Josh Katz, CPA

Mativ Holdings Inc.

B Negative b Weak Highly Leveraged Tyrone Daniel

DexKo Global Inc.

B- Stable b- Fair Highly Leveraged Michael Wiemers

Engineered Machinery Holdings Inc.

B- Stable b- Fair Highly Leveraged Josh Katz, CPA

Fortna Group Inc.

B- Stable b- Fair Highly Leveraged Michael Wiemers

DiversiTech Holdings Inc.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Michael Wiemers

FCG Acquisitions Inc.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Michael Wiemers

FGI Acquisition Corp.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Nicole Foote, CFA

FR Flow Control Midco Ltd.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

JSG I Inc.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Brian Jones

Maxim Crane Works Holdings Capital LLC

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Paul Crane

Merlin Buyer Inc.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Nicole Foote, CFA

Pro Mach Group Inc.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Paul Crane

Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Tyrone Daniel

Star UK Midco Ltd.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Tyrone Daniel

Tailwind Smith Cooper Holdings Corp.

B- Stable b- Weak Highly Leveraged Tyrone Daniel

C&D Technologies Inc.

B- Negative b- Weak Highly Leveraged Paul Crane

LTI Holdings Inc.

B- Negative b- Weak Highly Leveraged Josh Katz, CPA

Peacock Intermediate Holding II L.P.

B- Negative b- Weak Highly Leveraged Paul Crane

Shape Technologies Group Inc.

B- Negative b- Weak Highly Leveraged Josh Katz, CPA

Glatfelter Corp.

CCC+ WatchPos ccc+ Tyrone Daniel

ASP Unifrax Holdings Inc.

CCC+ Negative ccc+ Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Form Technologies LLC

CCC+ Negative ccc+ Brian Jones

Loparex Midco B.V.

CCC+ Negative ccc+ Tyrone Daniel

OT Merger Corp.

CCC+ Negative ccc+ Tyrone Daniel

Plaskolite PPC Intermediate II LLC

CCC+ Negative ccc+ Tyrone Daniel

TJC Spartech Acquisition Corp.

CCC+ Negative ccc+ Josh Katz, CPA

Tosca Services LLC

CCC+ Negative ccc+ Nicole Foote, CFA

Victory Buyer LLC

CCC+ Negative ccc+ Josh Katz, CPA

Pixelle Specialty Solutions LLC

CCC WatchDev ccc Tyrone Daniel

Wastequip LLC

CCC Developing ccc Dipak Chaudhari, CFA

Sensience Inc.

CCC- Negative ccc- Michael Wiemers

Range Parent Inc.

D NM d Paul Crane

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analysts:Donald Marleau, CFA, Toronto + 1 (416) 507 2526;
donald.marleau@spglobal.com
Ezekiel Thiessen, CFA, Englewood + 1 (303) 721-4415;
ezekiel.thiessen@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Henry Fukuchi, New York + 1 (212) 438 2023;
henry.fukuchi@spglobal.com
Trevor T Martin, CFA, Princeton + 1 (212) 438 7286;
trevor.martin@spglobal.com
Svetlana Olsha, CFA, New York + 1 (212) 438 1467;
svetlana.olsha@spglobal.com
Ariel Silverberg, San Francisco + 1 (212) 438 1807;
ariel.silverberg@spglobal.com
Contributor:Bruce Thomson, New York +1 2124387419;
bruce.thomson@spglobal.com
Research Support:Pracil Potdar, Mumbai;
pracil.potdar@spglobal.com

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