This report does not constitute a rating action.
PARIS (S&P Global Ratings) Feb. 7, 2024--S&P Global Ratings today said that the decision by President Macky Sall to postpone Senegal’s (B+/Stable/B) presidential election opens up political uncertainty, which could weigh on capital inflows and investor confidence.
The country’s parliament formally decided to move the election to Dec. 15 from Feb. 25. President Sall originally announced the decision to delay the election in early February, shortly after Parliament opened an investigation into two members of the constitutional court. He said the investigation could interfere with the justice system’s capacity to legitimize the election outcome.
Tensions were already high as the court ruled to exclude two main opponents from running for office late last month. Opposition members strongly criticized this delay, the first in the country’s history. The move has led to protests, at times violent, which we think could continue.
In our opinion, a prolonged period of uncertainty could have knock-on effects on investment flows into the country and therefore economic activity, which we currently expect to grow in real terms on average by almost 8% per year over 2024-2026. Although we do not foresee a scenario where the current president clings to power indefinitely, these developments will likely erode confidence in Senegal’s relative institutional strength and tarnish its reputation as one of Africa’s most stable democracies with a long-standing history of smooth transfers of power.
Related Research
- Sovereign Ratings List, Jan. 17, 2024
- Sovereign Ratings History, Jan. 17, 2024
- Sovereign Ratings Score Snapshot, Jan. 3, 2024
- Sovereign Risk Indicators, Dec. 11, 2023; a free interactive version is available at http://www.spratings.com/sri
Primary Contact: | Sebastien Boreux, Paris 33-14-075-2598; sebastien.boreux@spglobal.com |
Secondary Contacts: | Adrienne Benassy, Paris 33-144206689; adrienne.benassy@spglobal.com |
Remy Carasse, Paris 33-14-420-6741; remy.carasse@spglobal.com |
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