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What's Behind Our Sector View

Operating pressures will increase in 2024

Post pandemic, enrollment has not recovered uniformly across the higher education sector; in fact, many colleges and universities continue to report falling enrollment amid heightened competition for students. At the same time, wage and general expense growth is a strain for most higher education providers, and translates to material operating pressures facing schools in 2024, especially those with shrinking enrollment or constrained financial flexibility. Revenue recovery, even with tuition increases, is limited, in part due to rising tuition discounting, and has not been enough for most to fully offset expense growth. Some relief is provided by unrestricted reserves from moderate balance-sheet growth in fiscal 2023 and investment balances that, for many, remain stronger than pre-pandemic levels. However, expectations of slowing economic growth and more modest investment returns are adding to budgetary and cash flow pressure.

Based on our conversations with management teams, we expect fiscal 2024 operating margins will generally be weaker than those in fiscal 2023, given net tuition revenue pressure and increasing costs, primarily salary and merit increases, but also rising financial aid and scholarships. In particular, schools with academic medical centers face higher wages to combat staffing shortages that, while moderating, will continue in 2024. At the same time, fundraising is slowing and investment market volatility remains a question mark. Significant swings in gains and losses seen in the past few years make it hard to accurately predict effects on operating budgets, resulting in more variability, and in some cases cautiousness, about endowment drawdowns.

Outlooks and rating actions point to more pronounced credit divergence in 2024

As of Nov. 30, 2023, 38 schools we rate (fewer than 10% of ratings) have a negative outlook, primarily at the lower end of the ratings scale, with almost 80% of these rated 'BBB+' and below. As of the same date, 25 schools have a positive outlook. The distribution of stable outlooks (85%) across the rated higher education sector is close to pre-pandemic levels; however, downgrades have been primarily affecting lower investment-grade and speculative-grade institutions. At the same time, more positive outlook revisions and upgrades (nine and 10, respectively, in 2023 year to date) have occurred at the higher end of the ratings scale. We expect to see a continuation of this bifurcated trend in 2024.

Highly selective institutions benefit from significant demand and financial flexibility.  Although we expect greater economic stresses in 2024, we also expect higher-rated institutions with solid demand will maintain their creditworthiness as they continue to generate positive cash flow and operating margins, thus sustaining their healthy balance sheets. In our opinion, many of these schools have pricing flexibility as their demand tends to be inelastic, thus creating room within the ratings to withstand a certain amount of pressure depending on other aspects of their enterprise and financial risk profiles. For these types of schools, the impending demographic cliff poses relatively modest risk, in our opinion. On the financial front, these schools tend to benefit from strong fundraising abilities providing funding for strategic investments and necessary capital projects, while also building balance-sheet resources. Many also have greater revenue diversity, including prominent research grants and contracts, which for some, provide incremental revenue growth when other revenue sources may be somewhat constrained.

Less selective, highly regional institutions with weak balance sheets face greater credit risk.   We expect more of the same enrollment and financial pressures next year, which translates to increased credit stress for lower-rated schools. Many of these schools were facing enrollment declines pre-pandemic, and consistent and material enrollment decreases have been causing deepening deficits. Liquidity and bond covenant pressures could increase for weaker institutions if expense growth is unmatched by revenue growth, which could cause rating stress, particularly if breached covenants lead to collateral posting or acceleration of debt.

Sector Top Trends

Enrollment and demand

Mixed enrollment trends across the sector affect revenues.  For fall 2023, preliminary National Student Clearinghouse data indicates a 1.4% increase in private nonprofit four-year university undergraduate enrollment and a 0.8% increase in public nonprofit four-year university undergraduate enrollment; yet this follows several years of material enrollment decreases. Enrollment continues to vary widely across the sector and across rated institutions, depending on the type of school, location, and overall credit quality, with many smaller and lesser known schools finding it tough to compete for students in the current market. Even for schools that have been able to stabilize enrollment, it will take some time for smaller classes to work their way through to graduation.

Many schools reported higher-than-expected "summer melt" this fall and have shared that in general post-pandemic, May 1 doesn't mean the same thing anymore. Students are making decisions later and colleges are increasingly pursuing them much later in the game with "toppers" to their aid package to incentivize enrollment; several schools have noted they began building in structures or motivations to push for students' commitment earlier (such as early move-in dates). We anticipate that enrollment across the sector will remain challenged, given affordability pressures, the delayed rollout of Free Application for Federal Student Aid (financial aid), and the continuation of student loan payments. The impending demographic cliff will also continue to shrink the applicant pool.

Programmatic diversity.   Institutions with programmatic diversity and a mix of undergraduate and graduate/professional programs have benefited as competition for undergraduate students has intensified. We've seen a greater emphasis placed on the recruitment of graduate, nontraditional, and online students. More institutions are introducing masters and doctorate programs in highly sought-after industries such as health care and technology, and they're offering certificate programs in hopes of recruiting more corporate employees. For some struggling institutions, these changes in recruiting will allow for a reprieve from lower undergraduate revenue but the success of these strategies will likely take a few years to materialize.

Online and hybrid learning.   Since the pandemic, the rebounds in applications and housing occupancy, particularly for undergraduate students, demonstrate the value students place on the in-person and on-campus experience. The majority of institutions we rate have moved to fully in-person undergraduate programming, with limited hybrid courses. However, flexibility remains a key priority for students and online courses are here to stay. Most schools have sought to invest in graduate or certificate programs for their online expansions rather than standard undergraduate coursework.

Demographics will continue to shrink the possible applicant pool.  U.S. demographics are shifting; the number of high school graduates is flat, and in some cases falling, because of lower birth rates. This trend will continue, with a big drop-off or "cliff" expected in 2025--although many schools believe that this has already begun. Of note, most schools have been preparing for this for some time and have attempted to broaden their reach through expanded marketing efforts and targeting degree completion programs. However, those with a highly regional draw are likely to face enrollment decreases longer term.

Recruitment efforts are changing since the Supreme Court decision regarding affirmative action.  Rated colleges and universities indicate that they remain committed to enrolling an inclusive and diverse class. Schools report that they will continue to build a strong pipeline of diverse prospective students through visits to high schools across all income levels and partnership programs. Most schools are maintaining test optional admissions policies and continue to practice holistic admissions by considering the totality of a student's background and experience, both academic and personal. We do not expect that the Supreme Court of the United States' decision will dismantle the process schools are using to build and shape diverse incoming classes, but we will be monitoring these changes.

Rising costs create greater operating pressure in 2024

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Inflation, rising expenses, and labor shortages will continue to hamper school budgets in 2024, creating greater operating difficulties for those schools with less financial flexibility. During the pandemic, institutions undertook significant expense-cutting measures, and thus, much of the "low hanging fruit" has been eliminated already, making it tougher for institutions to reduce expenses further. Schools have been making cuts on a department-level basis and are looking at space efficiencies, especially for administrative offices. Some are sharing services with other institutions, whether they be programmatic or back-office services. While fiscal years 2021 and 2022, aided by federal money, generated median operating surpluses across rating categories, fiscal 2023 results were weaker, and we expect to see more operating deficits, especially at the lower end of the ratings scale, in fiscal 2024. Significant operating pressures at smaller schools with less management oversight could lead to technical covenant violations, such as a breach of a debt service coverage covenant, constituting events of default; we believe this could occur more frequently in the year ahead.

Labor shortages and unionization present problems for the sector.  Faculty and staff burnout, attrition, and labor and supply shortages continue to present operational and expense stresses, particularly in IT, where recruitment and retention (and cost) are high. Although many rated schools report relatively high teacher satisfaction and retention, acute labor shortages across the country create operating issues and we expect 2024 will see an increasing focus on faculty and staff wages, benefits, and working conditions. There has also been heightened activity in unionization negotiations across higher education, which usually means higher wages and expenses for schools.

Academic medical centers demand returns while facing labor shortages and higher wages.  We rate several universities with academic medical centers and health care exposure. This provides revenue diversification but also risks related to that industry, as many health care entities face margin compression, significant capital investments, and volume variability. Although the universities are overall highly rated, the related academic medical centers provide high acuity and essential care to broad regions, and face expense pressures related to staffing and inflation. The availability of labor and labor-related expenses remain a big hurdle for health care-related entities, and although labor costs have slightly improved, they remain stubbornly high relative to pre-pandemic levels. These pressures, while not accelerating, are also not improving at the rate entities initially expected and will likely be a significant factor impeding cash flow and margin recovery in 2024 and beyond. Even as temporary labor costs begin to drop, providers have raised pay and enhanced benefit packages that will long remain part of the expense base. (For more information, see "Historical Peak Of Negative Outlooks Signals Challenges Remain For U.S. Not-for-Profit Acute Health Care Providers" published Dec. 6, 2023.)

Slower economic growth could mean funding cuts

S&P Global Ratings expects global economic growth to slow in 2024, with GDP growing 2.8%, down from 3.1% in 2023. This slowdown could impair the revenue generation of governments and limit the capacity to increase operating and capital funding to universities.

Our chief U.S. economist has forecast that U.S. GDP growth will likely come in at 1.5% and 1.4% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, down from over 2.0% in 2023. Rising consumer prices and interest rates are whittling discretionary income, which could continue to affect affordability and school choices. For public universities, state funding has been rising, but history shows that, should state budgets be squeezed in 2024 or 2025, reductions to higher education funding will likely follow. The impacts from slower economic growth could vary greatly by state, but for some it could mean material reductions in state operating appropriations.

Financial flexibility and liquidity

Fiscal 2023's modest investment gains mean that for most institutions, reserves are still at absolute levels consistent with, or above, pre-pandemic 2019 levels. We expect management will continue to focus on preserving or augmenting reserves to improve balance-sheet flexibility due to concerns about likely weaker cash flow and capital spending needs. For those schools that are on reasonably sound credit footing, we expect capital spending will not be entirely tempered, but that most will likely moderate capital spending as cash flow generation is less robust. Over the next year, the strength of the balance sheet will continue to play a key role in credit stability, given the uneven operating performance that we expect. Asset monetizations are also increasing for all institutions and for some, this can provide near-term balance-sheet cushion but can also pose risk.

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Event risks

High management turnover, shorter tenures, and succession planning.  While many colleges and universities are accustomed to periodic changes in leadership, the rate of leadership turnover is accelerating due to a combination of advancement opportunities and retirements, strategic plans requiring different leadership skills, and a rising number of demands for resignation. The strength of higher education institutions depends on presidential and senior management leadership, but according to the American Council on Education's American College President Study, the frequency of presidential turnover is increasing, with more than half of presidents or chancellors intending to leave their positions within five years. Often during a permanent president vacancy, other key leadership position vacancies are put on hold awaiting selection of a new president. Succession planning is vital across senior management, to ensure ease of transition and the ability of the institution to remain focused on its strategic plan. We view normal leadership turnover favorably if handled in an expeditious manner and the result is new leadership with a clear vision for the future; however, excessive turnover often creates a lack of clear direction and/or a significant delay in adopting a new strategic plan or implementing an existing strategic plan.

Insurance costs are on the rise.  Further contributing to margin compression are rising costs for insurance, including property and environmental risk insurance; cyber security; and health care, all of which can lead to operating pressures. Amid rising concerns about campus safety, and in light of active shooter and geopolitical risk, we expect larger investments in campus safety in the coming year.

Cyber attacks are increasing in frequency and sophistication globally.   The expenses associated with maintaining adequate security to thwart the growing number of attacks on data-rich colleges and universities globally are material. Schools are investing more in personnel, software and hardware security, upgrades, and training for administration, faculty, staff, and students. In addition, cyber security insurance premiums have increased materially, in some cases in triple digits, recently. (For more information on cyber risk for higher education, see "Cyber Risk In A New Era: U.S. Colleges And Universities Go Back To School On Cyber Security Preparedness," Sept. 29, 2022.) Higher education institutions remain a prominent target for cyber attacks, although, to date, for those rated schools that have faced cyber incidents, we have not observed long-term operational or material financial impacts to credit quality due to cyber risk mitigation plans, including cyber insurance.

Closures, consolidations, asset monetizations

Higher education consolidations, both programmatic and schoolwide, are on the rise, driven by falling enrollment as well as financial stresses exacerbated by the pandemic. Struggling institutions with valuable real estate, brand, or institutional core competencies have had an easier time securing an affiliation or merger, but these are difficult agreements to close. During 2022 and 2023, several rated institutions successfully completed various merger and acquisition types of transactions, most of which resulted in higher enrollments or enhanced program offerings.

During 2023, two rated schools announced they would close: Medaille University (N.Y.) closed Aug. 31, 2023, following the termination of a planned agreement with a nearby institution, and Cabrini University (Pa.) announced it reached a final agreement related to Villanova University's purchase of Cabrini's campus, which includes Villanova's assumption of certain assets and liabilities following Cabrini's closure on June 30, 2024, pending final regulatory approval of the agreement.

Through past recessions and even during the pandemic, most rated institutions were able to make their debt payments on time and in full, such that there have been only three historical payment defaults (failure to make payment of principal and interest as scheduled, per S&P Global Ratings' definition) within the sector historically--all of them private institutions. Given recent closure announcements and the ongoing likelihood of material operating stress for some, we expect this number will rise during the next few years. Furthermore, we expect the number of closures across the sector will steadily rise--not exponentially--but gradually, during the next few years.

Revenue growth strategies

Could AI reshape higher education?  While still in the infancy stages, colleges and universities are starting to invest in, and implement, AI practices. There are many innovative ways schools have begun to use AI for admissions, student affairs, teaching/learning, and administrative duties, which can help schools with better marketing for and targeting of prospective students, student success, and administrative efficiencies, among other things. Some schools have shared success stories of using AI to reduce summer melt, through personalized, frequent communications to identify students who might not enroll in the fall in order to create intervention strategies. From a credit perspective, in our opinion, some of these practices could help schools to increase, anticipate, and have more control over enrollment; raise matriculation, retention, and graduation rates; and possibly, lead to more accurate budget forecasting.

Athletics, revenues, and impacts of conference re-alignment.   On the athletic program front, we're monitoring the ongoing conference re-alignments, as they have broad implications for revenues, costs, and facility needs. Also, the related revenue-sharing arrangements from broadcast contracts, and the renewal or renegotiation of these contracts, might have significant impacts for some schools' athletic programs. We understand the revenue growth schools could realize in the next five to 10 years might more than offset costs associated with any conference transition. Also, billions of dollars are at stake in a recent ruling against the National Collegiate Athletic Assn. (NCAA) and major college athletics conferences that could result in a substantial award to former and current college athletes, based on the share of television rights money and the social media earnings it claims athletes would have received if the NCAA's previous limits on name-image-and-likeness compensation had not existed.

Other U.S. higher education sectors

Community college enrollment is showing signs of revival.  Following steep drops in enrollment during the pandemic, community colleges are starting to make a modest comeback. Preliminary fall 2023 enrollment figures from rated community colleges generally indicate moderate enrollment growth. While we don't expect many community colleges have fully recovered back to pre-pandemic enrollment, a few have done so, which we believe is attributable to a number of factors, but largely how they approached the pandemic, local population growth, and a greater focus on student retention and expanding dual-enrollment programs. R emote learning is still in high demand for community college students, with many colleges still offering half or the majority of their classes online.

Privatized student housing settles into recovery.   Most privatized student housing projects have settled into higher occupancy and normalized financial operations following the end of de-densification and other pandemic pressures, as well as the end of extraordinary external support. For most projects, debt service coverage normalized in 2023, although inflation pressures still loom. 2024 looks favorable for the sector overall, although some projects remain pressured, given rising expenses. (For a detailed update, see "U.S. Privatized Student Housing Stabilizes As Recovery Continues And University Financial Support Dwindles" Nov. 20, 2023.)

U.S. Higher Education Ratings Performance

As of Nov. 30, 2023, S&P Global Ratings maintained ratings on 447 U.S. private (308) and public (139) colleges and universities that are secured by a general obligation or the equivalent. Approximately 29% of ratings are in the 'BBB' rating category and only 7% are speculative-grade; both of these categories continue to expand as more institutions have been increasingly strained by enrollment and operating pressures. Of our ratings on private universities, almost half (approximately 47%) are 'BBB+' or below. This compares with nearly 47% of public universities rated in the 'A' category, and only 11% rated 'BBB+' or below. Year to date in 2023, we have lowered 20 ratings, raised 10, and assigned six new ratings.

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What's Behind Our Sector View

Effective management will be key to ratings stability

For the most part, rated non-U.S. public universities managed well through the severe disruptions brought about by the pandemic and campus operations have largely returned to their pre-pandemic norms. However, longstanding problems, such as constrained revenue sources and changing government policies and regulations, persist. At the same time, inflationary pressures on wages and capital costs will have an increasing impact on financial performance in 2024, while higher interest rates pose a more medium-term risk.

Sector Top Trends

Stable demand and solid liquidity will help mitigate revenue pressure at Canadian universities

Canadian universities operate under provincial tuition frameworks that are typically quite restrictive. In Ontario, where 43% of all Canadian university full-time equivalents are enrolled, domestic undergraduate tuition has been frozen since being reduced by 10% in 2019 with no offsetting operating grant increase. In line with many international peers, Canadian universities have turned to international students, which now account for about 18% of enrollment, to balance rising expenses.

We expect that Canada will remain an attractive destination for international students and that domestic demand at rated institutions will remain healthy. Ancillary revenue-generating units are returning to profitability and returns from healthy cash and investments are also helping to offset inflationary cost pressures and maintain generally slim operating surpluses.

We expect the creditworthiness of rated universities in Canada will remain stable in 2024 while recognizing that operating difficulties continue to pose a risk. In our view, management teams have proven to be adaptable in the face of the volatile conditions of the past several years through cautious enrollment plans and ongoing expenditure controls.

Strong student demand and effective cost management at U.K. universities will alleviate pressures from high inflation

We expect that the cost base of universities will rise faster than revenues, reflecting the impact of high inflation on staff, utility, and other costs, while tuition fees for domestic undergraduate students will remain flat at least until 2024-2025. However, we believe that the sector is relatively well positioned to largely absorb these cost increases, although the impact on financials will vary.

We expect the sector will get a potential boost with the U.K. re-joining the European Union's flagship research program, "Horizon Europe," reinstating access to EU research grants and talent. This, together with ongoing investments in teaching and research facilities, will support the sector's high reputation, and in turn, continued strong student demand. As well, favorable movement in the Universities Superannuation Scheme's funding position could alleviate cost pressure by reducing pension-related expenses.

We believe that U.K. universities that maintain a solid reputation and attract international students are better positioned to navigate the current challenges without materially increasing their risk profile. However, in our view, an aggressive reliance on higher international student fees could add more risk to the universities' business model if not managed prudently, especially amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and changes to student immigration policies.

Returning international students will help Australian universities maintain roughly balanced margins

The Australian university sector's financial performance dipped in 2022, largely in line with our expectations. Rising staff costs and general inflationary pressures weighed on the expense base, while revenue growth was tepid on the back of a slow recovery in international student inflows and poor investment returns. We expect most rated universities will report small net operating deficits or approximately balanced budgets in 2023, too.

The return of international students gathered pace in 2023, which should help support credit metrics over the next few years. China-Australia bilateral relations appear to be thawing, and this could boost future Chinese student demand. However, Australia has also witnessed a surprising shift in the composition of arrivals, with India recently overtaking China for visa applications. The Australian higher education sector remains somewhat bifurcated, with the prestigious "Group of Eight" sandstone universities attracting the lion's share of enrollments of high-fee-paying foreign students.

Australian universities continue to tap diverse sources of debt, although issuance is likely to slow in a higher interest-rate environment.

Mexican universities will rely on careful management of expenditures to maintain balanced operating results as transfers will remain largely flat

We expect Mexican rated universities will continue to focus on the prudent management of expenditures, leading to overall balanced financial results. Revenues of the three rated Mexican universities are highly reliant on federal and state transfers, which account for 80% of total income. In our view, sound financial management policies and medium-term planning will be critical to avoid further slippages in their financial performance as government transfers have been stagnant in real terms. In addition, the pressure to offer high-quality education in the face of increasing domestic demand will remain a major challenge for Mexican public universities, as no additional grants are expected, and the tuition framework has been frozen for the past several years.

Only the Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León has long-term debt and we do not expect additional borrowings by any of the three rated universities in the next two years.

No enrollment cliff forecast at non-U.S. public universities

Demographic projections in Australia, Canada, Mexico, and the U.K. do not foretell a dramatic drop in the university-age population like that in the U.S. Although natural growth has slowed, in line with the rest of the developed world, domestic demand will be supported by net international immigration in Canada, Australia and the U.K. and Mexico's large youth cohort.

Of note, rated universities outside of the U.S. tend to be among the more prestigious in their markets and enjoy a stronger market position that grants them greater ability to recruit additional students without an undue impact on student quality.

International student numbers continue to rise, but for how much longer?

International students can improve an institution's brand reputation, add to a more diverse community on campus and in the greater community, and also pay significantly higher tuition fees than domestic students.

While institutions continue to court students from China and India, long the major source countries, such concentration also represents a risk and most have expanded their outreach to countries with large university-age populations and the growing means and willingness to study abroad, such as Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

Australian universities are generally more exposed to the international student market than their Canadian and U.K. peers, while Mexican universities are predominantly attended by domestic students. We anticipate that international student numbers at Australian universities will continue to rebound following the lifting of all pandemic-related travel and border restrictions. However, there is rising concern in Australia and Canada that generous visa conditions are attracting "lower quality" foreign students who are motivated by employment and residency prospects rather than study, and who could exacerbate domestic housing pressures.

Shifts in government policies could affect university operations

Higher education is under provincial jurisdiction in Canada and several provinces are considering changes that could affect university revenues. The government of Ontario is studying recommendations to increase per student government funding and domestic tuition, while the Quebec government recently announced a proposal to significantly increase tuition for new domestic out-of-province students, with the province recouping the increase to redistribute among francophone universities. At this point we have not factored any proposed regulatory changes into our base cases for rated Canadian universities.

Similarly, our base cases for rated Australian universities do not yet incorporate potential changes from an ongoing federal review of the university sector, known as the Australian Universities Accord. The government has pledged to fund an additional 20,000 domestic places in 2023 and 2024 and is also looking at altering the mix of domestic tuition fees and subsidies that it contributes for different courses.

The Mexican government has introduced an initiative to remove tuition fees for Mexican states' public universities. However, no timeframe has been proposed nor have the mechanisms that will be used to compensate the universities for the lost revenue been determined. We will continue tracking how this initiative evolves and assess its impact on universities' creditworthiness.

Labor actions are likely to further push up operating costs

Similar to unionization actions in the U.S., the number of labor actions has increased in the past several years, most notably in Australia and the U.K. Workers have been pushing for raised wages to address higher-than-usual cost of living increases, greater job security, and better working conditions. We believe that there is a greater chance for campus disruptions and that collective agreement negotiations could exacerbate other inflationary cost pressures as employee-related costs tend to account for the majority of operating expenses for universities.

Impact of higher interest rates largely staved off in the near term

In our view, higher interest rates do not pose an immediate credit risk to rated universities outside of the U.S. mostly due to their low overall exposure to variable-rate debt, the longer-dated term to maturity of their debt, and our expectation that, in general, there are not material debt financing plans among the rated institutions.

While many non-U.S. universities access short-term, floating-rate bank debt, the majority of balance-sheet debt tends to be long-dated, fixed-rate bullet debentures, which presents some medium-term refinancing risk, although this is mitigated by typically strong liquidity that may include internal sinking funds set aside for debt repayment.

For Mexican universities, interest rate volatility is even less of a credit risk, given their low or complete absence of external debt.

Ratings Performance

Ratings and outlook distribution supports our sector view despite several negative rating actions in the past year

The rating distribution for non-U.S. universities remains concentrated in the 'AA' category, reflecting their generally strong demand characteristics and healthy balance sheets, which offer some protection against downside pressures. The three rated Mexican universities are non-investment-grade. We took two rating actions on non-U.S. public universities in 2023: we lowered the rating on the University of Wollongong to 'AA-' from 'AA' in June 2023, and lowered the rating on University of British Columbia to 'AA' from 'AA+' in April 2023 following a similar action on its supporting government, the Province of British Columbia.

The outlooks on rated non-U.S. universities are predominantly stable, with two universities having positive outlooks and two carrying negative outlooks.

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Related Research

• Historical Peak Of Negative Outlooks Signals Challenges Remain For U.S. Not-for-Profit Acute Health Care Providers, Dec. 6, 2023
• Global Credit Outlook 2024: New Risks, New Playbook, Dec. 4, 2023
• Economic Outlook U.S. Q1 2024: Cooling Off But Not Breaking, Nov. 27, 2023
• Chinese Student Return A Boost For Australian Universities, Jan. 31, 2023