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Updated 2022 Scores For U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas Based On Various Criteria

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Updated 2022 Scores For U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas Based On Various Criteria

S&P Global Ratings has updated its scores for U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) based on its local government general obligation (GO), priority-lien, water/sewer, and special assessment debt criteria (see "U.S. Local Governments General Obligation Ratings: Methodology And Assumptions," published Sept. 12, 2013; "Priority-Lien Tax Revenue Debt," published Oct. 22, 2018; "U.S. Municipal Water, Sewer, And Solid Waste Utilities: Methodology And Assumptions," published April 14, 2022; and "Special Assessment Debt Criteria ," published April 2, 2018).

Overall, 74 of the 383 MSA scores changed, with 32 improving and 42 weakening. This number of changes is roughly on par with last year's, though higher than in historical years, likely reflecting the lingering effects of the pandemic. Most of the changes are due to the employment growth component of the MSA score, which compares each MSA's percentage change in employment in the five years through 2022 with the sum for all MSAs. Many of the affected MSAs have comparatively smaller populations and employment bases, which historically have had more score volatility.

The improved scores are due to a combination of above-average employment growth and industry diversification. The majority are in Southern and Western states, reflecting the ongoing growth in those regions. Many are also in college towns and regions with a strong tourism sector, and their improved scores likely reflect recovery from the pandemic as students have returned to campus and people have begun to travel more frequently. A strong domestic oil and gas industry also contributed to improvement in several MSAs that have employment concentrated in this industry, though we would expect these changes to be more cyclical.

The weakened scores are due almost entirely to the employment growth component of the MSA score. A larger proportion of these than of the improved scores are in the Midwest and mid-Atlantic states, which have struggled with stagnant or declining populations and shrinking employment bases. Although a large number of MSAs also weakened in Southern and Western states, these typically have smaller and older populations and are not keeping pace with their high-growth regional peers.

The U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) delineates the 383 MSAs. S&P Global Ratings uses the OMB's April 2018 delineation for our calculation of broad and diverse MSAs. These delineations are used for data sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that we use in our analysis.

Our updated scores for U.S. MSAs reflect data from 2022. Participation in a broad and diverse MSA is only one component of our various criteria.

Table 1

Metropolitan Statistical Area Score Changes
Moderate to Strong Weak to Moderate Weak to Strong
Baton Rouge, LA Alexandria, LA Athens-Clarke County, GA
Billings, MT Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
Carson City, NV Barnstable Town, MA
Columbia, MO Bloomington, IN
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL Bremerton-Silverdale, WA
Fayetteville, NC Homosassa Springs, FL
Idaho Falls, ID Midland, TX
Johnson City, TN Norwich-New London, CT
Las Cruces, NM Panama City, FL
Lebanon, PA Peoria, IL
Logan, UT-ID Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
Redding, CA Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton, PA
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA
Springfield, MA South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
Texarkana, TX-AR
Utica-Rome, NY
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
Moderate to Weak Strong to Moderate Strong to Weak
Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville, AL Bellingham, WA Janesville-Beloit, WI
Bowling Green, KY Champaign-Urbana, IL Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
Chambersburg-Waynesboro, PA Cheyenne, WY Sumter, SC
Cleveland, TN Florence, SC Wichita Falls, TX
Dubuque, IA Fort Smith, AR-OK
Eau Claire, WI Greeley, CO
Fairbanks, AK Green Bay, WI
Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL Harrisonburg, VA
Fond du Lac, WI Hattiesburg, MS
Grand Island, NE Hot Springs, AR
Hammond, LA Jackson, TN
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC Lewiston, ID-WA
Jefferson City, MO Lincoln, NE
Joplin, MO Medford, OR
Kankakee, IL Roanoke, VA
Lima, OH Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
Mankato-North Mankato, MN Staunton-Waynesboro, VA
Rome, GA Valdosta, GA
Sebring, FL Vallejo-Fairfield, CA

The Broad And Diverse MSA Adjustment

We use the broad and diverse assessment in several different criteria in U.S. public finance.

We assess participation in a larger broad and diversified economy at the MSA level. This assessment reflects evaluation of three components: employment diversity, employment growth, and the employment base (see paras. 45-47 of the criteria). To provide further transparency, we calculate the score for each MSA in accordance with our criteria, classifying its breadth and diversity as strong, moderate, or weak (see map and table 2). MSAs are considered broad and diverse when the net score of the three components is strong and not broad and diverse when the net score is weak. If the net score is moderate, applying the broad and diverse adjustment to the initial economic score may be warranted if we determine that the local government benefits significantly from participation within its MSA.

When changes occur, we publish our updated scores and highlight which MSAs have changed.

In S&P Global Ratings' "S&P Public Finance Local GO Criteria: How We Adjust Data For Analytic Consistency" criteria, published Sept. 12, 2013, the rating outcome is more heavily weighted by economy (30%) than by the six other factors evaluated. The economic score assesses underlying indicators that generate current and future locally derived revenues as well as the likelihood of future service demands resulting from economic deterioration. We view favorably a local government's participation in a larger broad and diversified economy, and it can result in an automatic or qualitative adjustment to the indicative economic score.

In S&P Global Ratings' "Priority-Lien Tax Revenue Debt" criteria, the economic fundamentals (20%) assessment includes whether the tax base is part of a large, broad, and diverse MSA (see paras. 14-16 and table 3 of the criteria). This framework allows us to consider both stronger and weaker economic factors, and we assess each entity by looking at the variety of factors cited and use a preponderance of factors to determine the overall assessment. However, all else equal, lack of participation in a broad and diverse MSA is more likely to lead to a weaker economic factor assessment.

In S&P Global Ratings' "U.S. Municipal Water, Sewer, And Solid Waste Utilities: Methodology And Assumptions" criteria, economic fundamentals make up 45% of the enterprise risk profile. Included in the assessment of economic fundamentals is whether or not the utility's service area is within an MSA and, if so, whether we consider that MSA broad and diverse.

In S&P Global Ratings' "Special Assessment Debt Criteria," the economic fundamentals (15%) assessment considers whether an assessment area or special taxing district is included in a broad and diverse MSA (see paras. 16-21 of the criteria). A key credit factor for special assessment debt involves assessing housing and real estate demand. Assessment or special taxing districts within what we consider a broad and diverse MSA are more likely to be accompanied by higher real estate demand than those outside MSAs or within MSAs we do not consider broad and diverse. Higher levels of real estate demand generally lead to faster price appreciation, more rapid development, shorter listing periods, and a stronger ability to recover delinquencies.

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Table 2

U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas' Economic Participation Scores
Strong Moderate Weak
Abilene, TX X
Akron, OH X
Albany, GA X
Albany, OR X
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY X
Albuquerque, NM X
Alexandria, LA X
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ X
Altoona, PA X
Amarillo, TX X
Ames, IA X
Anchorage, AK X
Ann Arbor, MI X
Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville, AL X
Appleton, WI X
Asheville, NC X
Athens-Clarke County, GA X
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA X
Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ X
Auburn-Opelika, AL X
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC X
Austin-Round Rock, TX X
Bakersfield, CA X
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD X
Bangor, ME X
Barnstable Town, MA X
Baton Rouge, LA X
Battle Creek, MI X
Bay City, MI X
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX X
Beckley, WV X
Bellingham, WA X
Bend-Redmond, OR X
Billings, MT X
Binghamton, NY X
Birmingham-Hoover, AL X
Bismarck, ND X
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA X
Bloomington, IL X
Bloomington, IN X
Bloomsburg-Berwick, PA X
Boise City, ID X
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH X
Boulder, CO X
Bowling Green, KY X
Bremerton-Silverdale, WA X
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT X
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX X
Brunswick, GA X
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY X
Burlington, NC X
Burlington-South Burlington, VT X
California-Lexington Park, MD X
Canton-Massillon, OH X
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL X
Cape Girardeau, MO-IL X
Carbondale-Marion, IL X
Carson City, NV X
Casper, WY X
Cedar Rapids, IA X
Chambersburg-Waynesboro, PA X
Champaign-Urbana, IL X
Charleston, WV X
Charleston-North Charleston, SC X
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC X
Charlottesville, VA X
Chattanooga, TN-GA X
Cheyenne, WY X
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI X
Chico, CA X
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN X
Clarksville, TN-KY X
Cleveland, TN X
Cleveland-Elyria, OH X
Coeur d'Alene, ID X
College Station-Bryan, TX X
Colorado Springs, CO X
Columbia, MO X
Columbia, SC X
Columbus, GA-AL X
Columbus, IN X
Columbus, OH X
Corpus Christi, TX X
Corvallis, OR X
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL X
Cumberland, MD-WV X
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX X
Dalton, GA X
Danville, IL X
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL X
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL X
Dayton, OH X
Decatur, AL X
Decatur, IL X
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL X
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO X
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA X
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI X
Dothan, AL X
Dover, DE X
Dubuque, IA X
Duluth, MN-WI X
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC X
East Stroudsburg, PA X
Eau Claire, WI X
El Centro, CA X
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY X
Elkhart-Goshen, IN X
Elmira, NY X
El Paso, TX X
Enid, OK X
Erie, PA X
Eugene, OR X
Evansville, IN-KY X
Fairbanks, AK X
Fargo, ND-MN X
Farmington, NM X
Fayetteville, NC X
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO X
Flagstaff, AZ X
Flint, MI X
Florence, SC X
Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL X
Fond du Lac, WI X
Fort Collins, CO X
Fort Smith, AR-OK X
Fort Wayne, IN X
Fresno, CA X
Gadsden, AL X
Gainesville, FL X
Gainesville, GA X
Gettysburg, PA X
Glens Falls, NY X
Goldsboro, NC X
Grand Forks, ND-MN X
Grand Island, NE X
Grand Junction, CO X
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI X
Grants Pass, OR X
Great Falls, MT X
Greeley, CO X
Green Bay, WI X
Greensboro-High Point, NC X
Greenville, NC X
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC X
Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula, MS X
Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV X
Hammond, LA X
Hanford-Corcoran, CA X
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA X
Harrisonburg, VA X
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT X
Hattiesburg, MS X
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC X
Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort, SC X
Hinesville, GA X
Homosassa Springs, FL X
Hot Springs, AR X
Houma-Thibodaux, LA X
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX X
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH X
Huntsville, AL X
Idaho Falls, ID X
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN X
Iowa City, IA X
Ithaca, NY X
Jackson, MI X
Jackson, MS X
Jackson, TN X
Jacksonville, FL X
Jacksonville, NC X
Janesville-Beloit, WI X
Jefferson City, MO X
Johnson City, TN X
Johnstown, PA X
Jonesboro, AR X
Joplin, MO X
Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI X
Kalamazoo-Portage, MI X
Kankakee, IL X
Kansas City, MO-KS X
Kennewick-Richland, WA X
Killeen-Temple, TX X
Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA X
Kingston, NY X
Knoxville, TN X
Kokomo, IN X
La Crosse-Onalaska, WI-MN X
Lafayette, LA X
Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN X
Lake Charles, LA X
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ X
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL X
Lancaster, PA X
Lansing-East Lansing, MI X
Laredo, TX X
Las Cruces, NM X
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV X
Lawrence, KS X
Lawton, OK X
Lebanon, PA X
Lewiston, ID-WA X
Lewiston-Auburn, ME X
Lexington-Fayette, KY X
Lima, OH X
Lincoln, NE X
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR X
Logan, UT-ID X
Longview, TX X
Longview, WA X
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA X
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN X
Lubbock, TX X
Lynchburg, VA X
Macon-Bibb County, GA X
Madera, CA X
Madison, WI X
Manchester-Nashua, NH X
Manhattan, KS X
Mankato-North Mankato, MN X
Mansfield, OH X
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX X
Medford, OR X
Memphis, TN-MS-AR X
Merced, CA X
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL X
Michigan City-La Porte, IN X
Midland, MI X
Midland, TX X
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI X
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI X
Missoula, MT X
Mobile, AL X
Modesto, CA X
Monroe, LA X
Monroe, MI X
Montgomery, AL X
Morgantown, WV X
Morristown, TN X
Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA X
Muncie, IN X
Muskegon, MI X
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC X
Napa, CA X
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL X
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN X
New Bern, NC X
New Haven-Milford, CT X
New Orleans-Metairie, LA X
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA X
Niles-Benton Harbor, MI X
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL X
Norwich-New London, CT X
Ocala, FL X
Ocean City, NJ X
Odessa, TX X
Ogden-Clearfield, UT X
Oklahoma City, OK X
Olympia-Tumwater, WA X
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA X
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL X
Oshkosh-Neenah, WI X
Owensboro, KY X
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA X
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL X
Panama City, FL X
Parkersburg-Vienna, WV X
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL X
Peoria, IL X
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD X
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ X
Pine Bluff, AR X
Pittsburgh, PA X
Pittsfield, MA X
Pocatello, ID X
Portland-South Portland, ME X
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA X
Port St. Lucie, FL X
Prescott, AZ X
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA X
Provo-Orem, UT X
Pueblo, CO X
Punta Gorda, FL X
Racine, WI X
Raleigh, NC X
Rapid City, SD X
Reading, PA X
Redding, CA X
Reno, NV X
Richmond, VA X
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA X
Roanoke, VA X
Rochester, MN X
Rochester, NY X
Rockford, IL X
Rocky Mount, NC X
Rome, GA X
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, CA X
Saginaw, MI X
St. Cloud, MN X
St. George, UT X
St. Joseph, MO-KS X
St. Louis, MO-IL X
Salem, OR X
Salinas, CA X
Salisbury, MD-DE X
Salt Lake City, UT X
San Angelo, TX X
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX X
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA X
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA X
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA X
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA X
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA X
Santa Fe, NM X
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA X
Santa Rosa, CA X
Savannah, GA X
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton, PA X
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA X
Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL X
Sebring, FL X
Sheboygan, WI X
Sherman-Denison, TX X
Shreveport-Bossier City, LA X
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ X
Sioux City, IA-NE-SD X
Sioux Falls, SD X
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI X
Spartanburg, SC X
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA X
Springfield, IL X
Springfield, MA X
Springfield, MO X
Springfield, OH X
State College, PA X
Staunton-Waynesboro, VA X
Stockton-Lodi, CA X
Sumter, SC X
Syracuse, NY X
Tallahassee, FL X
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL X
Terre Haute, IN X
Texarkana, TX-AR X
The Villages, FL X
Toledo, OH X
Topeka, KS X
Trenton, NJ X
Tucson, AZ X
Tulsa, OK X
Tuscaloosa, AL X
Twin Falls, ID X
Tyler, TX X
Urban Honolulu, HI X
Utica-Rome, NY X
Valdosta, GA X
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA X
Victoria, TX X
Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ X
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC X
Visalia-Porterville, CA X
Waco, TX X
Walla Walla, WA X
Warner Robins, GA X
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV X
Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA X
Watertown-Fort Drum, NY X
Wausau, WI X
Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH X
Wenatchee, WA X
Wheeling, WV-OH X
Wichita, KS X
Wichita Falls, TX X
Williamsport, PA X
Wilmington, NC X
Winchester, VA-WV X
Winston-Salem, NC X
Worcester, MA-CT X
Yakima, WA X
York-Hanover, PA X
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA X
Yuba City, CA X
Yuma, AZ X

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analyst:Benjamin D Gallovic, Chicago + 1 (312) 233 7070;
benjamin.gallovic@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Jane H Ridley, Englewood + 1 (303) 721 4487;
jane.ridley@spglobal.com
Blake E Yocom, Chicago + 1 (312) 233 7056;
blake.yocom@spglobal.com
Sanket Sonawane, New York + 1 (212) 438 1649;
sanket.sonawane@spglobal.com

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