This report does not constitute a rating action.
Key Takeaways
- Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 has led to significant project announcements across various corporate sectors, including energy, transport, tourism, health care, and digital infrastructure.
- It will fall to the debt-capital markets to support a large portion of these new opportunities, as the government and the banking sector alone will not be able to meet all the required funding needs.
- We do not anticipate taking any immediate rating actions on Saudi corporate entities, even as they carve out significant capex budgets over the next two-to-five years, because of their healthy balance sheets and strong liquidity.
The overarching goal of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 is diversifying away from hydrocarbons. The plan has led to significant project announcements across various corporate sectors. We understand that the country's investment needs are significant given the many government schemes, investment commitments, and private sector spending plans through to 2030. Gauging exact funding requirements and timing is not easy but below we try to explore the various investments by sector. We look at the key sectors we believe will see significant spending growth over the medium and long term. We also assess our rated corporate entities' funding needs and the potential effects on their credit quality. We do not think the government's Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the banking sector alone will be able to fund these investments. It will fall to the debt-capital markets to support a large portion of these new opportunities (see "Saudi Capital Markets Will Be Key To Powering Corporate Investments," published Nov. 29, 2022).
We do not anticipate taking any immediate rating actions on Saudi corporates--even as they carve out significant capital spending budgets over the next two-to-five years--given their healthy balance sheets and strong liquidity. Over time, however, we will reassess our ratings as projects are executed. Potential rating upside could emerge if these large investments have a positive effect on business trends, improve a company's EBITDA in a sustainable way, and strengthen its leverage metrics. We will be looking at a company's ability to take a disciplined approach to project selection, to focus on returns and not only on volumes, and to adapt its risk management frameworks as its business grows. For government-related entities (GREs), the potential for increased support from the government could lead to higher ratings. We currently have three rated GREs on positive outlook in line with our outlook on Saudi Arabia because we expect they would receive various degrees of extraordinary support if in distress (see "Outlooks Revised To Positive On Three Saudi Corporates Following Similar Action On Sovereign; Ratings Affirmed," March 31, 2022).
Some Sectors That Are Likely To Thrive
- The energy sector is a substantial contributor to the government's revenues and its credit quality is currently benefiting from higher oil and gas prices. This windfall will help fund the government's share of investments despite its heavy capital expenditure (capex) burden.
- Real estate will gain from various new programs to provide local housing and invigorate the business and financial sectors via investments in commercial real estate.
- Tourism has already received a substantial boost via aviation developments as well as projects intended to help attract 100 million visitors per year by 2030, such as the Red Sea Project, which envisages luxury hotels, marinas, and an airport.
- Digital infrastructure developed by telcos will be at the heart of investments, in our view, including high speed broadband, 5G, and a strategic digital hub (the MENA Hub).
- Investments in the food and agriculture sectors aim to increase local production and adopt modern farming techniques. Despite strong demand and price increases, profitability in these sectors remains lower than before the pandemic, with rising input costs obscuring the path to recovery.
- The Ministry of Health will soon assume a regulatory role, with the private sector expected to play a more important part in developing health care, attracting more than $65 billion in investments.
- Utilities face the mammoth task of reducing Saudi Arabia's fossil fuel dependency and meeting 70% of energy needs from renewables by 2030. We expect more public-private partnerships (PPPs) and significant investments in the country's grids.
Oil & Gas
Primary analyst: Rawan Oueidat
Softer global macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand imbalances will weigh on short-to-medium-term prices. Geopolitical uncertainties, recessions, and ongoing lockdowns in China (where a zero-COVID policy is still in place) have translated into lower global oil demand. This has been most notable in the transportation sector (gas diesel, motor gasoline, and residual fuel oil). In our view, supply will follow agreed OPEC+ cuts, which will mean a headline reduction of 2 million barrels of oil per day, compared with the required production levels of August 2022, effective November 2022 to December 2023 following the OPEC+ meeting on Oct. 5.
The Saudi oil and gas sector will attract cautious but ongoing capex. Brent crude oil prices are currently hovering just below $90/bbl, after temporarily hitting $127/bbl in March 2022, and we have seen the region's oil and gas companies reap the benefits of commodity price increases in the year to date. Even so, we think exploration and production (E&P) will increase spending only modestly in 2022. Saudi Aramco (not rated) has publicly announced that its 2022 capex will be at the lower end of its guidance of SAR150.0 billion-SAR187.5 billion ($40 billion-$50 billion) compared to 2021 capex of SAR119.6 billion ($31.9 billion). Saudi Aramco is reportedly focusing on upstream and downstream investments including expanding its crude oil production capacity to 13 million barrels per day (mmbpd) by 2027 and boosting gas production by more than 50% by 2030, in addition to the long-term goal of up to 4 mmbpd liquids-to-chemicals, all of which requires continuous capex. Credit quality in the energy sector continues to benefit from higher oil prices. We tend to align most of our ratings on other national oil companies in the region with their respective sovereigns, for instance QatarEnergy (AA/Stable/--) or Energy Development Oman (BB/Stable/--). This reflects the national oil companies' significant role in the hydrocarbon sector and the sector's contribution to their overall economies. It also factors in their ownership structures and direct government oversight via boards of directors. Their stand-alone credit profiles (SACPs), which are stronger that the creditworthiness of their respective sovereigns, factor in how they manage their overall financial policies, their free cash flow generation for debt repayment, and shareholder returns.
Chart 1
Increased investments should provide some cash-flow visibility for the Saudi oilfield services (OFS) sector. To boost the Kingdom's production capacity Saudi Aramco publicly announced plans to double its offshore fleet to 90 by 2024. In May 2022 it also announced 16 jack-up contracts for 80 rig years, with most contracts lasting five years plus two option years. As a result, we expect some clarity around the backlogs of OFS companies that have growing exposure to Saudi Arabia. In Q2 2022, the global jack-up market recorded the most rig years signed in a quarter for more than five years, with over 70% of the awards coming from the Middle East. As of August, for example, of its 11 rigs based in the GCC Shelf Drilling Holdings Ltd. (CCC+/Stable/--) had seven rigs contracted in Saudi Arabia with Saudi Aramco, with 2025 the earliest expiration date and most of the contracts benefiting from annual adjustments linked to Brent price movements. In September 2022 ADES (not rated) publicly announced plans to acquire seven drilling jack-ups from Seadrill for $628 million, with four already contracted with Saudi Aramco. When assessing OFS companies in our rated portfolio, which are typically below investment grade (such as Shelf Drilling), we focus on liquidity management and capital-structure sustainability given the challenges of rising borrowing costs and the inflationary cost environment. The OFS sector is just emerging from prolonged pricing pressures and demand weakness dating from the oil price decline of 2014-2015. Therefore, most OFS and drilling companies started 2022 with high cash flow leverage.
Chemicals
Primary analyst: Rawan Oueidat
The petrochemical industry will be key to delivering Vision 2030. The regulatory environment in Saudi Arabia is generally supportive of the sector (through feedstock subsidies for example) and for investing in the country's natural resources, to boost Saudi employment and growth. The Shareek program has identified national players such as Saudi Aramco and SABIC, which could see an uptick in investments in the sector.
Despite the softer macroeconomic outlook, feedstock availability and affordability should help Saudi chemical producers mitigate some of the challenges of the inflationary and volatile operating environment. Global capacity additions are outpacing demand in some segments and high inventory levels (market consensus based on S&P Capital IQ data as of September 2022) will likely weigh on operating performance into 2023. We believe a mostly price-led drop in demand is already happening, likely continuing into 2023, as inflationary and new regulatory pressures in some markets shift consumer spending to more affordable products, reduce demand for packaging, and potentially lead to changes in crop mixes that could reduce yields. Saudi chemical producers benefit from competitive feedstock prices set by the Ministry of Energy and Minerals and they depend on Saudi Aramco for their energy supplies. With Saudi ethane and methane--the main cost components for GCC chemical producers--priced at $1.25 and $1.75 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), Saudi producers enjoy a extremely competitive cost advantage compared to global benchmarks. For example, the Dutch TTF temporarily exceeded $70/mmbtu in mid-August 2022, compared with $25/mmbtu at the beginning of June 2022 and $18/mmbtu at the end of 2021. Cost competitiveness, plus supply from Saudi Aramco, which in turn has access to large and abundant reserves, should provide further cash flow visibility amid energy supply concerns in other regions (see "Stressing Accessibility, Affordability, and Availability: Can GCC Chemical Companies Stand The Heat?", published Oct. 10, 2022). Nevertheless, the limited diversification in feedstock supply could pose a higher risk of disruption, like we saw during the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco's oil facilities, which led to a 16%-50% disruption to Saudi chemical producers' feedstock supplies.
Investment in the domestic petrochemical sector is expected to ramp up. As a result, our base case is for higher capex in the medium term for SABIC (A-/Positive/A-2), consistent with other publicly listed (but not rated) peers and based on Capital IQ market consensus (October 2022). This could, in turn, translate into overall higher funding requirements to meet these investment needs.
Chart 2
Our rating on SABIC is capped by the sovereign rating on Saudi Arabia because we consider SABIC to be a GRE with very strong links to the government. While we anticipate SABIC's capex will increase to align with Saudi Vision 2030 and the Shareek program, its S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage of about 0.3x for the rolling 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2022, is significantly lower than our 1.5x threshold for its 'a+' SACP.
Real Estate
Primary analysts: Sapna Jagtiani and Ilya Tafintsev
We foresee sustained property market growth in Saudi Arabia, fueled by Vision 2030 and the Iskan program, with $1 trillion slated for real estate and infrastructure projects. At least eight new cities are planned, predominantly along the coast of the Red Sea, with more than 1.3 million new homes by end-2030. Numerous projects are also slated for existing main cities. With the ambitious target for Riyadh to become one of the 10 largest cities in the world, its population is projected to exceed 15 million by 2030 from around 8 million (2018 estimates). This should support demand for residential properties over the longer term, with growing interest in lifestyle-oriented developments and smaller and more affordable units driven by the expanding expat population and local households' changing preferences. The Iskan program, which aims to increase home ownership for Saudi families to 70% by 2030, is tasked with providing the necessary infrastructure for housing and encouraging landlords to develop real estate projects throughout Makkah, Jeddah, and Dammam. Although the white land tax (on undeveloped land) has been in effect for a few years with some success, the government has launched the second phase of its Idle Land Program to ensure fair competition and a balance between supply and demand for modern estates. We believe these programs and projects will support rents and prices in the medium term. In first-half 2022 the market saw a rise in apartment prices in Jeddah, Dammam, and Riyadh, as new deliveries were absorbed by unmet demand. The increase in rental prices was fueled by the booming labor market.
The office real estate market has been boosted by the Regional Headquarters (RHQ) program, supported by business growth initiatives related to Vision 2030. Growing demand for office space has been supported by the post-COVID recovery and government-led economic stimulus. The surge in office leases is being driven by demand from abroad; the Ministry of Investment reported 9,400 new licenses issued to foreign companies in Q1 2022, about 19x the previous year. Of the four main cities, Riyadh and Jeddah are benefiting the most from attracting GREs as well as global and local firms as entities expand footprints or relocate to growing business hubs. Moreover, RHQ--which has $3 trillion to allocate to foreign companies that do business and, importantly, establish their regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia--has boosted demand for office space in Riyadh. Average office rents have been steadily growing, especially as tenants switch to prime offices. We expect this positive momentum to continue amid strong occupancy rates and limited new additions in the next three years. With current gross leasable area (GLA) stock of 7.4 million square meters in the big four cities as of first-half 2022, GLA is expected to grow by about 5% by year end- 2022 (JLL data).
Saudi Arabia's retail property market has a lot of long-term growth potential. This is backed by relatively low retail penetration (square meters of GLA of just 0.4 per capita compared to the international benchmark of 1.1 or Dubai's 1.2 as of end-2020), the large and young population, increasing urbanization, expanding tourism, and expected significant growth in the entertainment industry. The latter will be driven by the $1.1 billion Ignite program, set to position Saudi Arabia as the region's leading digital entertainment and media production hub.
About SAR13 billion-SAR 16 billion is set to be invested in retail property in 2022-2023. This should increase total GLA by about 20% but could weigh on the recovery in retail lease rates. Growing competition has offset any footfall recovery since the start of pandemic, leading to lower rental rates. Average rental rates in super-regional malls in Riyadh and Jeddah were up 3%-5% annually, showing positive recovery for the first time since 1Q 2020 on the back of improving consumer confidence and limited GLA additions. However, we believe the market will remain pressured because of planned GLA additions of about 1.8 million square meters (to the existing 6.2) in Riyadh, Dammam, and Jeddah in 2022-2023 (Knight Frank). In addition to traditional competition, retailers also face consumers' preferences shifting toward online shopping, forcing the expansion of omnichannel and experiential retail offerings. Material investments in 2022-2023, combined with a slower-than-expected recovery in rates, may limit cash generation for self-financing and force companies to seek external funding.
Tourism
Primary analyst: Tatjana Lescova
Tourism is one of the key focuses of Vision 2030 and a main non-oil growth driver, providing investment opportunities for private local or international investors. Saudi Arabia aims to attract 100 million visitors per year by 2030, of which about a half to Riyadh, and including 30 million religious visitors (from eight million currently). The aim is for tourism to contribute 10% of GDP (about 3% currently) and create jobs for young Saudis. The country's modernization efforts and investments in mega projects for tourism and entertainment--Neom, Red Sea Project, Qiddiya--should attract more international visitors. Hosting major events such as the Asian Winter Games in 2029 in Neom, at a skiing and outdoor resort to be completed in 2026, should also boost numbers. The development of utilities, transportation, and social infrastructure in cities will, in aggregate, require investments in excess of $500 billion. We believe that these projects--alongside measures that free up competition, foreign ownership, and long-term residency--will attract people to Saudi Arabia and ultimately benefit the country via higher foreign direct investment.
The government aims to attract private investors to fund tourism developments. Saudi Arabia established a Tourism Development Fund in 2020 with $4 billion in capital, with a mandate to facilitate private investors' access to investment opportunities by providing funding to projects. Hospitality infrastructure will be mostly funded by local and foreign private investors, with plans to add 500,000 hotel rooms by 2030 (around 62,000 branded hotels keys currently), the bulk of which will be in the mega projects. Saudi Arabia aims to garner interest from top global hotel brands to help achieve its ambitious tourism targets. For example, the recently announced Hilton expansion will see the hotel brand grow from fifth to being the country's second largest brand. Traditionally, the bulk of international tourism in Saudi Arabia has been related to religious pilgrimage and concentrated in Makkah. However, the government introduced new visas in 2018-2019 to help open the country up to leisure tourism. Some 64 million domestic tourism visits were recorded in 2021, which contributed to record spending of SAR81 billion. Incoming international tourists, however, numbered only 3.5 million, still markedly below the 17.5 million in 2019, with spending down to about SAR15 billion versus SR103 billion in 2019. More than 60% of visitors were from other GCC or Middle Eastern countries. Business travel to Saudi Arabia will depend on the country's ability to develop as a regional business hub, competing mainly with Dubai.
Material investments in the transport segment will create infrastructure to enhance travel, with proceeds from both public and private funds. In July 2021 the government announced $147 billion of investments in transport and logistics through 2030, and expects the sector's GDP contribution to rise to 10%. The country intends to develop railroads, expand existing airports with a focus on Riyadh and Jeddah, and launch a new airline (Riyadh International Airlines [RIA] scheduled for end-2022) that will complement existing carriers Saudia, flynas, and flyadeal. Aviation will be one of the biggest winners from growth in international, regional, and domestic tourism. RIA will accommodate the expected growth in the visitor numbers, but also boost regional flights, competing with established airlines such as Emirates (Dubai), Etihad (Abu Dhabi), and Qatar Airways (Qatar). PIF has also announced the creation of an aircraft leasing company this year and there is reportedly a plan to set up a NEOM-specific airline. Material funding needs will be partly addressed by the government but private funding will also be important. Indeed, $100 billion has already been allocated to foster Saudi aviation. The country is preparing the privatization of airports (along with 16 other sectors) which will help raise funds for investments.
Telcos
Primary analyst: Tatjana Lescova
The Saudi telco market is dominated by three players and is key to Vision 2030. The operators, with Saudi Telecom Co. (stc) as market leader, will help the country meet its Vision 2030 objectives and will also benefit from its expected economic growth. For the economy to achieve a successful digital transformation, advanced infrastructure and digital skills are required. To scale up the digital economy, 5G network and broadband development will continue. This will boost Saudi Arabia's e-commerce, digital banking and financial services, online education, and health care sectors, as well as other online services such as e-government. Digital infrastructure will be at the heart of investments, in our view, including for high-speed broadband, 5G, and flagship projects such as stc's planned strategic digital hub. Vision 2030 targets high-speed broadband for more than 90% of households in densely populated cities and 66% in other urban zones. Ambitious plans to build smart cities such as Neom will also require solid telecom and ICT services.
To advance the country's digital transformation, stc is actively developing non-telecom initiatives. In doing so it is also creating value for itself and its stakeholders. These initiatives include:
- stc pay: the country's first digital bank, which obtained a license in 2021;
- solutions by stc: provides ICT services to B2B customers including GREs;
- SIRAR by stc: provides security services and solutions to the business sector; and
- MENA Hub, a regional digital hub, including subsea cables and data centers.
While stc's traditional telecom services, including mobile and fixed broadband data activities, will keep expanding, we think non-telecom businesses will grow even faster, pushing the group's consolidated revenue growth into the mid-to-high single digits in 2022-2023.
Chart 3
The Shareek program's investments are fused with telcos' strategies. Vision 2030's strategy hinges on the development of non-telecom ICT and digital services (one aim is increase the share of cashless payments to 70% by 2030) as well as telecom infrastructure. We forecast stc's capex at 14%-16% of revenues over the next two-to-three years, or SAR11.0 billion–SAR11.5 billion in 2022 before gradually declining to SAR10.0 billion–SAR10.5 billion in 2023. Under our base case for stc, we expect 5G investments will gradually reduce and continue at a slower pace as they are already very advanced, but investments in network upgrades and maintenance, fiber, data centers, and digital services will continue in line with the company's expansion strategy. stc will also provide the latest technologies for Neom, including a 5G network. As the economy expands and moves online, and households and businesses become more connected via fixed broadband and fiber, stc's revenue from data will also increase. It operates the largest broadband network in the country and has the leading fiber and 5G networks. Given stc's very healthy credit ratios, we expect its 'a+' SACP to remain steady despite high investments, offset by a supportive growth outlook. Our 'A-' rating on stc is capped by the sovereign rating on Saudi Arabia and will move in tandem.
Food and Agriculture
Primary analyst: Sapna Jagtiani
Food security is a key area of diversification given that the population is 33 million and growing, and about 80% of food is currently imported. Vision 2030 aims is to build a sustainable agricultural sector and flexible and sustainable food systems, locally and internationally. The country plans to localize 85% of its food industry by 2030. Changing demographics and a burgeoning middle class have seen changes in consumption habits such as increasing demand for fresh organic produce. Vision 2030's focus is on the sustainable use of natural resources, reducing losses and waste by 50% by 2030, and forming a strategy for responsible agricultural investment abroad.
Significant innovation and the adoption of new technology is underway. The government is providing funding and loans to farmers to boost local production via modern farming techniques such as hydroponics, a technology that uses 90% less water than traditional farming methods. This has helped create a number of local agri-tech start-up companies. In 2021, Saudi agricultural output grew by 7.8% to SAR72.3 billion, from SAR67.1 billion in 2020, the highest for more than five years. We expect a surge in capital markets activity in the segment over the coming years, spurred by government initiatives.
Margin compression is being driven by input-cost inflation, but revenue growth from higher pricing and larger volumes is encouraging companies to ramp up capex. We are seeing margins fall in the food and beverage segment. On the one hand, inflationary pressures are leading to rising input costs and the tenuous macroeconomic outlook could weigh on disposable incomes. That said, so far in 2022 the recovering horeca segment (hotels, restaurants, cafes) and higher selling prices have upheld demand. While easing shipping and freight costs (albeit still higher than before the pandemic) will help margins remain stable, we do not expect margins to recover to pre-pandemic levels. We see rising capex needs for key consumer products companies such as Almarai Co. (BBB-/Stable/A-3). Almarai plans large investments, mainly in poultry, red meat, and seafood, of about SAR4.4 billion-SAR4.8 billion over the next 12-24 months, up from SAR1.4 billion in 2021, which will lead to low or negative free operating cash flows (FOCF). Despite this, we expect Almarai to maintain ratios in line with our 'BBB-' rating, as well as take a flexible and prudent approach to new acquisitions and capex.
Health Care
Primary analyst: Ilya Tafintsev
Under Vision 2030, the government plans to invest over $65 billion to develop health care infrastructure, committing to 88% of the population being covered by inclusive health services by 2025. More importantly, the Ministry of Health is ceasing to be a service provider and will focus instead on regulatory matters and funding quality care through contractual agreements with health clusters. The private sector will assume a greater role in filling the demand-supply gap, with the government aiming to increase the sector's contribution to 65% by 2030 from 40% currently. This includes the privatization of some of its hospitals.
The growing population and increasing insurance coverage requirements are fueling strong demand for specialty clinics and ambulatory care centers. Saudi Arabia accounts for 60% of the GCC's health care expenditure and we expect the sector to remain a top priority for the government. The population is expected to grow to 39.3 million by 2030, from 33.4 million in 2018, with an estimated additional 20,000 hospital beds needed by 2030, from 77,224 beds as of end-2021 (private hospitals currently contribute only 23%). Growth in the sector will be further supported by an uptick in primary visits to hospitals as government is promoting preventive care screening for chronic diseases.
Vision 2030 and production localization should support steady growth in other health care subsectors. The pharmaceuticals market is one of the largest in MENA and is expected to reach $10.7 billion by 2023, from $6.0 billion in 2018. Manufacturing localization grew steadily to 40% in 2020, from 20% in 2016, and we expect government incentives will continue to attract investments. The Saudi market for medical equipment has an estimated value of $2 billion and is growing annually by about 10%, backed by the transition from low-value commodities to high-value medical products, which is providing lucrative investment opportunities.
Utilities & Infrastructure
Primary analysts: Sofia Bensaid and Sapna Jagtiani
By 2030, Saudi Arabia targets to generate half its power via green assets and the other half from gas. The government has laid out clear plans to reduce the country's dependency on fossil fuels for power generation. Today, half its electricity comes from gas-generating assets while the other half is from petroleum-derived liquids. Previously, Saudi Arabia has implemented sweeping plans to move away from oil and gas for power generation by rapidly deploying renewables in the grid; more recently it dismantled old oil-fired assets that had become inefficient. ACWA Power, the largest power and water developer in the region alongside PIF, has signed for nearly 42 gigawatts of renewable power plants worth US$30 billion. This program will meet 70% of the country's renewables target by 2030. The first project, the 1500 megawatt (MW) Sudair Solar Plant, reached financial close in April 2021 and became the largest single solar site in Saudi Arabia with a very low tariff of 12.39 US$/MWh. We expect future renewable tariffs to rise substantially given current supply and logistics constraints from China, the main photovoltaic modules supplier.
To rapidly decrease its reliance on fossil fuels, the government has initiated the early decommissioning of some oil-fired power and water plants. It aims to convert these into gas power plants or stand-alone water desalination plants powered from the grid. The Shuaibah Independent Water and Power Project, the first PPP in the power sector dating from 2005, will be dismantled ahead of its useful life and replaced with a greenfield water plant, a step toward achieving Paris Agreement targets. Saudi Electric Co. (SEC; A-/Positive/--) is the key integrated utility and is also helping the country meets its energy mix target. SEC will increase the grid's integrated renewable capacity and bolster its extra-high-voltage lines. It will also increase its transformers' capacities as well as develop energy transfers and interconnection projects within MENA and focus on grid automation. SEC plans capex of SAR35 billion-SAR40 billion annually for 2022 and 2023, which will lead to negative FOCF. While this constrains our view of the company's 'bbb-' SACP, the rating benefits from three notches of government support and so aligns it with the sovereign credit rating. This reflects our view that there is an almost certain likelihood that the Saudi Arabian government would provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support to SEC in the event of financial distress.
Chart 4
Seawater reverse osmosis installed capacity is expected to increase by more than five million cubic meters per day by 2026. Today, nearly half the world's desalination capacity is in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia is the leader with an installed capacity of nine million cubic meters per day. Water is key to the social and economic development of the region and Saudi Arabia has been implementing numerous plans to increase its affordable water supply through desalination and the reuse of treated wastewater. The Saudi Water Partnership Company is planning to add 13 water plants in the eastern, western, and southern regions by 2026 to meet demand. We expect water prices in the next procurement rounds to increase amid rising inflation, heightened logistical costs, and growing interest rates.
Saudi Arabia is also working on becoming a major supplier of hydrogen worldwide to diversify away from oil exports. A consortium comprising ACWA Power, Air Products, and Neom (a PIF affiliate) expects to close the US$5 billion NEOM Green Hydrogen Project in Q4 2022. It will be the world's largest commercial hydrogen facility entirely powered by wind and solar energy and will aim to export green ammonia. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, hydrogen is forecast to account for 12% of global energy use by 2050 and Saudi Arabia is well positioned to develop further capacity given its available land and strong solar irradiation.
Saudi Arabia is setting out its principles for sustainable growth. The National Center for Privatization is standardizing its PPP framework to attract more institutional investors and build on the success of IWPPs and IPPs over the past two decades. We are seeing a growing number of PPPs for hospitals, schools, and staff accommodation under Vision 2030's privatization program, with Al Ansar Hospital being the first in the health care sector. We expect many of these projects will be financed through the project finance framework already well established in Saudi Arabia.
Related Research
- Saudi Capital Markets Will Be Key To Powering Corporate Investments, Nov. 29, 2022
- PIF's Offer For 51% Tower Stake Is Credit Neutral For stc, Nov. 22, 2022
- S&P Global Ratings Revises Its Oil And Gas Price Assumptions On Supply/Demand Fundamentals, Nov. 18, 2022
- Saudi Basic Industries Corp., Nov. 10, 2022
- Stressing Accessibility, Affordability, And Availability: Can GCC Chemical Companies Stand The Heat?, Oct. 10, 2022
- Saudi Arabia 'A-/A-2' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Positive On Strong Fiscal And Economic Growth Dynamics, Sept. 17, 2022
- Almarai Co., Sept. 13, 2022
- Saudi Electric, May 26, 2022
- SAMA Support For Saudi Banks Eases Near-Term Liquidity Needs, June 29, 2022
- GCC Sustainability Targets Are Unlikely To Shake Up Local Energy Markets, April 11, 2022
- Outlooks Revised To Positive On Three Saudi Corporates Following Similar Action On Sovereign; Ratings Affirmed, March 31, 2022
- GCC Asset Sales Will Increase Transparency, Broaden Funding Sources, And Support Capital Market Development, March 21, 2022
- Credit FAQ: GCC Low-Cost Producers May Be Better Placed Than Most Oil And Gas Majors As The Energy Transition Heats Up, Sept. 27, 2021
- Vision 2030 Will Push Forward Saudi Arabia's Debt Capital Market, May 4, 2021
Primary Credit Analysts: | Sapna Jagtiani, Dubai + 97143727122; sapna.jagtiani@spglobal.com |
Rawan Oueidat, CFA, Dubai + 971(0)43727196; rawan.oueidat@spglobal.com | |
Tatjana Lescova, Dubai + 97143727151; tatjana.lescova@spglobal.com | |
Ilya Tafintsev, Dubai +971 4 372 7189; ilya.tafintsev@spglobal.com | |
Sofia Bensaid, Dubai +971 (0)4 372 7149; sofia.bensaid@spglobal.com | |
Timucin Engin, Dubai + 971 4 372 7152; timucin.engin@spglobal.com | |
Secondary Contacts: | Pierre Gautier, Paris + 0033144206711; pierre.gautier@spglobal.com |
Trevor Cullinan, Dubai + (971)43727113; trevor.cullinan@spglobal.com | |
Mohamed Damak, Dubai + 97143727153; mohamed.damak@spglobal.com | |
Roman Rybalkin, CFA, Dubai +971 (0) 50 106 1739; roman.rybalkin@spglobal.com | |
Ravi Bhatia, London + 44 20 7176 7113; ravi.bhatia@spglobal.com |
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