After the pandemic-related shocks of 2020, sovereign credit quality showed signs of improvement in 2021 amid vaccinations, economic reopening, and easy financing conditions, especially in developed markets. Downgrades and defaults among sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings sharply declined in 2021, alongside a modest uptick in upgrades.

However, not all countries benefited equally from the improving conditions, with the sovereign downgrades in the year concentrated entirely among emerging and frontier market countries. In general, the downgraded countries continued to face fiscal and external financing challenges that the pandemic had exacerbated. Furthermore, many of the downgraded countries rely heavily on international tourism, which faced a protracted recovery.

This study covers the period through Dec. 31, 2021, before the armed military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Beyond the devastating human costs of this conflict, multiple ratings in the region have been affected in 2022. For the latest updates on these, please see "Russia-Ukraine Military Conflict: Key Takeaways From Our Articles." Furthermore, S&P Global Ratings withdrew all of its outstanding ratings on relevant Russian issuers following the EU's announced ban on providing credit ratings to legal persons, entities, or bodies established in Russia.

Fewer Sovereigns Defaulted In 2021 As Credit Quality Began To Stabilize

Following a historic high of seven foreign currency sovereign defaults in 2020, 2021 had just one foreign currency default, which was the fewest since 2018.

Belize, which had the only foreign currency sovereign default in 2021, entered the year with a 'CCC+' rating following its prior default in 2020. The country's economic and fiscal position had been severely weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic as the government shifted more of its resources to health care. The default in 2021 marked Belize's fifth.

Meanwhile, Suriname had the year's sole local currency sovereign default in 2021. Suriname entered 2021 with a 'CC' local currency rating following two foreign currency defaults in 2020. We lowered the local currency rating to 'SD' (selective default) on June 3, 2021, after the country's government announced it was in arrears on outstanding local currency commercial debt instruments and was in talks with creditors to rationalize this domestic debt.

Because a sovereign has flexibility in servicing its local currency debt based on the unique powers it enjoys within its own borders, particularly in its control of domestic financial and monetary systems, S&P Global Ratings assigns both foreign currency and local currency ratings to sovereigns. This study focuses on foreign currency ratings unless otherwise noted.

The sovereign defaulters in 2021 were rated at the lowest rating levels. All of S&P Global Ratings Research's default studies have found a clear correlation between ratings and defaults: The higher the rating, the lower the observed frequency of default, and vice versa. With 2021's defaults, the one-year Gini ratio, which measures the rank-ordering power of ratings, rose to 94.9% (from 91.4%) for foreign currency ratings and to 92.9% (from 91.7%) for local currency ratings.

Rating Movement In 2021

Last year countries generally began to reestablish credit quality after the pandemic had fueled ramped-up health care and social spending amid a sudden economic slump that reduced tax proceeds. Countries in the developed markets generally fared better in both 2020 and 2021, given they had greater fiscal flexibility, extremely supportive financing conditions, and greater access to COVID-19 vaccines.

Emerging and frontier market sovereigns tended to be harder hit by the pandemic, and several were further downgraded in 2021 as lingering effects continued to weigh on credit quality. While about half as many sovereigns were downgraded in 2021 as in 2020, all were from the emerging and frontier markets. The Latin America and Caribbean region and the Middle East and Africa region accounted for most of the downgrades.

Meanwhile, the year's upgrades were mostly of countries from the developed markets. S&P Global Ratings lowered the foreign currency ratings on 12 sovereigns during the year (including defaults), while just three sovereigns were upgraded (see chart 4).

Two of the downgraded sovereigns during the year, Colombia and Morocco, were fallen angels, or issuers downgraded to speculative-grade ('BB+' or lower) from investment-grade ('BBB-' or higher). In each case, we expected the fiscal impact of the pandemic to be longer-lasting than initially thought.

After experiencing high downgrade and default rates in 2020, ratings were much more stable in 2021. Nearly 88% of sovereign ratings were unchanged in 2021, and this was the highest stability rate since 1992. Of the ratings that changed, 8.03% were lowered (excluding defaults), 0.73% defaulted, and 3.65% were raised. With these more favorable rating trends, the downgrade-to-upgrade ratio fell to 2.20 to 1 in 2021 from 7.33 to 1 in the prior year (see table 1).

Table 1

Summary Of Net Annual Sovereign Foreign Currency Rating Changes
(%)
Year	Issuer count as of Jan. 1	Upgrades	Downgrades*	Defaults	Withdrawn ratings	Changed ratings	Unchanged ratings	Downgrade/upgrade ratio
2000	83	10.84	6.02	1.20	0.00	18.07	81.93	0.56
2001	88	18.18	10.23	1.14	0.00	29.55	70.45	0.56
2002	90	15.56	10.00	1.11	0.00	26.67	73.33	0.64
2003	93	18.28	5.38	2.15	1.08	26.88	73.12	0.29
2004	97	27.84	6.19	1.03	0.00	35.05	64.95	0.22
2005	106	16.04	2.83	1.89	0.00	20.75	79.25	0.18
2006	112	17.86	3.57	0.89	1.79	24.11	75.89	0.20
2007	113	20.35	2.65	0.00	0.88	23.89	76.11	0.13
2008	119	7.56	12.61	1.68	0.84	22.69	77.31	1.67
2009	123	1.63	16.26	0.00	1.63	19.51	80.49	10.00
2010	125	16.00	10.40	0.80	0.00	27.20	72.80	0.65
2011	128	14.84	20.31	0.00	1.56	36.72	63.28	1.37
2012	129	7.75	15.50	2.33	0.00	25.58	74.42	2.00
2013	130	4.62	12.31	2.31	2.31	21.54	78.46	2.67
2014	132	8.33	13.64	0.76	1.52	24.24	75.76	1.64
2015	133	11.28	15.79	0.75	0.00	27.82	72.18	1.40
2016	136	6.62	16.91	1.47	1.47	26.47	73.53	2.56
2017	137	9.49	12.41	3.65	2.19	27.74	72.26	1.31
2018	133	10.53	7.52	0.75	0.00	18.80	81.20	0.71
2019	134	13.43	4.48	0.75	0.00	18.66	81.34	0.33
2020	139	2.16	15.83	4.32	0.00	22.30	77.70	7.33
2021	137	3.65	8.03	0.73	0.00	12.41	87.59	2.20
Weighted average		10.66	9.96	1.18	0.58	22.39	77.61	1.62
Median		7.56	6.67	0.00	0.00	18.87	81.13	0.71
Standard deviation		7.67	6.13	1.10	0.67	10.86	10.86	2.10
Minimum		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	63.28	0.09
Maximum		27.84	23.08	4.32	2.31	36.72	100.00	10.00
Notes: This table compares the net change in ratings from the first to the last day of each year. All intermediate ratings are disregarded. Descriptive statistics at the bottom of the table based on data for 1975-2021. *Excludes downgrades to 'SD', shown separately in the defaults column. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Among publicly rated sovereigns, we recorded 13 one-notch rating transitions in 2021: 10 downgrades and three upgrades. Most of these rating actions resulted from either lingering weakness or improvements in the countries' economies or fiscal positions.

Tourism-dependent economies downgraded in the year included Aruba, Cape Verde, Fiji, Montenegro, and the Bahamas, which were particularly challenged by the lingering pandemic as new variants slowed the recovery in international travel.

Liquidity concerns accounted for two downgrades, of Cape Verde and Kenya, as higher fiscal deficits heightened external financing vulnerabilities.

Management, or governance effectiveness, led to both a downgrade and an upgrade. We downgraded the Bahamas because we expected that without meaningful and sustained revenue or expenditure reform, the country would be limited in its ability to respond to future shocks. We upgraded Greece because we expected that the government's policies would enable progress on budgetary consolidation and structural reforms.

Political risks contributed to the three-notch downgrade of Ethiopia. The country faces a conflict between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and federal forces that has expanded from Tigray into adjoining regions, leading the government to declare a nationwide state of emergency.

Table 2

Main Causes Of Sovereign Rating Changes (2021)
Number of notches	Economy	Finances	Political	Management	Liquidity	Default
(5)						Belize
(3)			Ethiopia
(1)	Montenegro, Fiji, Aruba	Chile, Colombia, Kuwait, Morocco		Bahamas	Cape Verde, Kenya
1	New Zealand, Taiwan			Greece
Rating actions on publicly rated sovereigns. Figures in parentheses signify downgrades. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

To measure rating transitions over a one-year horizon, we use a static pool approach to compare the issuer credit ratings as of the beginning of the year with those as of year-end. This approach measures the net rating migration for an issuer over the course of the year, rather than the number of times a rating changed. For example, a rating that we lowered twice in 2021 would count as one issuer downgrade, rather than as two individual downgrades.

Large rating transitions are not common among sovereigns. Most downgrades are typically of one or occasionally two notches. Sovereign upgrades within a calendar year seldom exceed one notch. In 2021, the average downgrade was 1.18 notches. This was slightly lower than the 1.27-notch average in 2020. The average upgrade in 2021 remained at 1.00 notch for the third consecutive year (see chart 5).

Since 1975, 79% of sovereign rating actions have been of one notch. Upgrades of more than one notch are much less common, and the largest upgrades have been of three notches. While the number of total downgrades is near that of upgrades, we've seen a broader dispersion of notch changes within downgrades. The largest downgrades have been of nine notches (four) and 10 notches (one) (see chart 6).

The 10-notch sovereign downgrade was for the long-term foreign currency rating on the Republic of Korea (South Korea) during the Asian financial crisis. Through a series of four downgrades in 1997, we lowered the sovereign credit rating on South Korea to 'B+' from 'AA-'. Since 1997, we've raised our rating on South Korea nine times, and the long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating is now 'AA'.

Many of the more pronounced multinotch downgrades have been of sovereigns that defaulted from a low rating category. For example, the largest multinotch downgrade in 2021 was of Belize, which we downgraded five notches, to 'SD' from 'CCC+'.

Ginis And Ratings Performance

S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings continue to serve as effective indicators of relative default risk. One of our key measures of ratings performance is the Gini ratio, which is a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon. The Gini ratio shows the ratio of actual rank-ordering performance to a theoretically perfect rank ordering. A Gini coefficient ranges from 0% to 100%, with higher values indicating a stronger relationship between lower rating categories and higher default rates. (For details on the Gini methodology, see Appendix 1.)

We found that there is a strong inverse relationship between higher ratings and observed defaults. In other words, sovereigns that have defaulted were generally rated at the lower end of our ratings spectrum prior to defaulting.

With sovereign credit quality stabilizing in 2021, and with defaults limited to the 'CCC'/'CC' category, sovereign ratings performance was above average. For 2021, the one-year Gini ratio was 94.9% for foreign currency ratings, above the average one-year Gini ratio of 89.5%. Local currency ratings also showed strong performance with a one-year Gini ratio of 92.9%, above the annual average Gini ratio of 88.6% (see charts 7 and 8 and table 3).

Since the global financial crisis, sovereigns have for the most part shown very strong ratings performance, with Ginis dipping below 90% in only two years for foreign or local currency ratings. With a relatively smaller number of rated sovereigns, credit events such as the financial crisis in 2008 or the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2012 had outsize effects on ratings performance, especially when measured over time horizons longer than one year.

Table 3

Global Average Gini Coefficients For Sovereign Ratings
	--Time horizon--
(%)	One-year	Three-year	Five-year	10-year
Foreign currency
Weighted average	92.66	81.41	76.06	69.47
Average	89.50	79.94	73.77	68.28
Standard deviation	14.93	11.83	13.03	9.76
Local currency
Weighted average	86.69	73.08	67.38	57.79
Average	88.55	76.32	70.44	65.54
Standard deviation	11.86	17.00	18.87	20.02
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Rising Number Of Lower-Rated Sovereigns Points To Continued Default Risk

Rated sovereigns have recorded at least one default annually for 10 consecutive years, reflecting the growing number of speculative-grade ratings. Between 1999 and 2009, sovereign defaults averaged 1.5 per year, and the count of speculative-grade sovereigns averaged 43 annually over this period. Subsequently, from 2010 to 2021, 2.6 sovereigns defaulted on average annually, and the number of speculative-grade sovereigns has averaged 60 annually.

At the end of 2021, the number of speculative-grade sovereigns was as high as it's ever been, at 65. The only other year with as many speculative-grade sovereigns was 2016. The number of speculative-grade sovereign ratings has been growing since the late 1980s as countries with smaller and less diversified economies have sought credit ratings. At the end of 1989, just 3% of sovereign foreign currency ratings were speculative-grade, but by the end of 2021, 46% were speculative-grade (see chart 9).

Not only has the total number of speculative-grade issuers grown, but so has the number of sovereigns rated at the lowest levels. The number of 'CCC'/'CC' sovereigns was the highest on record as we entered 2022 (at eight). This number of sovereigns rated in the highest-risk rating category suggests defaults could remain elevated in the coming years.

Over the longer term, the number of sovereigns we rate has grown with an increasing number of governments raising external financing through international bond markets. We've assigned foreign currency ratings to just over 160 sovereigns since 1975. Much of the expansion in the number of rated sovereigns occurred between 1988 and 2011, when the tally grew by 104. Given the relatively small and static number of nations in the world, another such increase is unlikely. For that reason, the distribution of sovereign ratings will change mostly with the movement of existing ratings.

As of year-end 2021, 16 local currency sovereign credit ratings were higher than the corresponding foreign currency credit ratings. For example, New Zealand is among the sovereigns with a long-term local currency rating ('AAA') above its long-term foreign currency rating ('AA+' since February 2021) (see table 4).

Additionally, when the foreign currency rating on a sovereign is in default or indicates a near-term risk of default, the local currency rating can be several notches higher if we expect the sovereign not to default on its local currency obligations. For instance, even as we lowered the foreign currency rating on Belize to 'SD' in May 2021, the local currency sovereign rating remained in the 'CCC'/'CC' category.

Table 4

Sovereigns With Different Foreign Currency And Local Currency Ratings As Of Dec. 31, 2021
Country	Foreign currency ratings (LT/outlook/ST)	Local currency ratings (LT/outlook/ST)
Chile	A/Stable/A-1	A+/Stable/A-1
Colombia	BB+/Stable/B	BBB-/Stable/A-3
Czech Republic	AA-/Stable/A-1+	AA/Stable/A-1+
Guatemala	BB-/Stable/B	BB/Stable/B
Lebanon	SD/--/SD	CC/Negative/C
Malaysia	A-/Negative/A-2	A/Negative/A-1
Mexico	BBB/Negative/A-2	BBB+/Negative/A-2
Mozambique	CCC+/Stable/C	B-/Stable/B
New Zealand	AA+/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Peru	BBB+/Negative/A-2	A-/Negative/A-2
Poland	A-/Stable/A-2	A/Stable/A-1
Russia	BBB-/Stable/A-3	BBB/Stable/A-2
South Africa	BB-/Stable/B	BB/Stable/B
Thailand	BBB+/Stable/A-2	A-/Stable/A-2
Turkey	B+/Negative/B	BB-/Negative/B
Zambia	SD/--/SD	CCC-/Negative/C
LT--Long-term. ST--Short-term. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereign Foreign Currency Rating Transition Rates

An analysis of sovereign rating transition rates shows that higher ratings correspond negatively with the observed frequency of default. Furthermore, investment-grade-rated sovereigns tend to exhibit greater ratings stability (as measured by the frequency of rating transitions) than those rated speculative-grade.

From 1975 to 2021, on average, 96.8% of sovereigns that were rated 'AAA' maintained that rating over a one-year horizon. Over a longer period, ratings tend to show higher rates of transition. For example, the stability rate for 'AAA' declines to 90.6% over three years, 84.4% over five years, 72.0% over 10 years, and 67.1% over 15 years (see tables 5-9).

Despite this higher rate of transition over a longer horizon, very few of those 'AAA' sovereigns that transitioned over a 15-year period fell below the 'AA' category. On average, 28.1% of sovereigns rated 'AAA' transitioned to the 'AA' category over a 15-year horizon. Over the same horizon, less than 1.5% of 'AAA' sovereigns migrated to speculative-grade, and none transitioned to 'SD'.

Table 5

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Ratings one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.82	3.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	2.09	93.72	2.93	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.63
A	0.00	3.89	90.50	5.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.43
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.48	90.25	4.68	0.39	0.19	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.90	86.48	5.90	0.76	0.38	0.57
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	88.03	3.48	2.42	1.52
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.86	42.86	37.50	1.79
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 6

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Ratings three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.61	8.52	0.17	0.17	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17
AA	6.67	82.53	7.36	1.61	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.38
A	0.00	11.14	73.09	13.23	1.16	0.23	0.46	0.23	0.46
BBB	0.00	0.00	14.44	71.55	10.94	1.31	0.22	1.09	0.44
BB	0.00	0.00	0.20	17.35	64.90	14.08	0.41	2.04	1.02
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	11.45	70.43	4.44	9.57	3.76
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.93	18.60	53.49	6.98
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 7

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Ratings five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.45	13.38	0.18	0.90	0.72	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.36
AA	11.81	71.61	12.56	1.76	0.75	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.51
A	0.00	17.86	56.89	20.15	2.55	0.26	0.51	1.28	0.51
BBB	0.00	0.00	21.87	57.00	14.74	2.95	0.25	2.21	0.98
BB	0.00	0.00	1.55	22.52	52.54	16.78	0.88	4.19	1.55
B	0.00	0.00	0.20	2.36	13.98	58.86	4.33	14.76	5.51
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	13.16	5.26	63.16	13.16
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 8

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	71.98	22.90	1.23	1.43	0.61	0.41	0.00	0.00	1.43
AA	23.75	53.51	15.38	5.02	2.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33
A	1.60	23.64	40.26	21.41	5.11	1.92	0.64	4.79	0.64
BBB	0.00	3.90	28.37	40.07	15.60	2.84	0.35	5.67	3.19
BB	0.00	0.00	4.72	31.86	31.86	17.70	0.88	11.21	1.77
B	0.00	0.00	0.30	4.83	21.15	41.69	2.11	24.17	5.74
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.57	14.29	0.00	64.29	17.86
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 9

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Ratings 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	67.09	28.14	1.76	0.00	0.50	0.75	0.00	0.00	1.76
AA	32.03	39.39	12.99	12.55	2.16	0.43	0.43	0.00	0.00
A	3.74	28.04	38.32	14.02	2.34	4.67	0.47	8.41	0.00
BBB	0.00	10.16	32.62	26.20	14.44	3.21	0.53	8.02	4.81
BB	0.00	0.00	4.44	41.78	21.78	15.56	0.44	15.56	0.44
B	0.00	0.00	0.56	10.06	18.44	35.75	1.68	31.84	1.68
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	0.00	8.70	0.00	65.22	21.74
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Another gauge of ratings stability is the average time a sovereign spends at a particular rating. Table 10 shows the average number of years that the particular rating had been effective as of Dec. 31, 2021. The average number of years that each issuer has been at the given rating tends to be higher in the higher rating categories. For example, 'AAA' sovereigns have averaged nearly 20 years at that rating, which is longer than the issuers in any other rating category. By contrast, the 'CCC'/'CC' sovereigns have spent less than a year, on average, in this rating category.

One exception to this relative measure of stability is found in the 'BBB' category: Sovereigns in the 'BBB' category have spent less time at this rating than 'BB' category sovereigns have spent at 'BB'. In part, this reflects recent additions to the 'BBB' category, such as Botswana (which was downgraded to 'BBB+' in 2020), Croatia (which was upgraded to 'BBB-' in 2019), and St. Helena (which was assigned an initial rating of 'BBB-' in 2019).

Table 10

Average Time Spent At Current Rating As Of Dec. 31, 2021
Rating category	Average years	Issuer count
AAA	19.97	11
AA	4.32	21
A	3.17	17
BBB	2.42	26
BB	2.69	18
B	2.06	39
CCC/CC	0.51	8
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereign Local Currency Rating Actions And Transitions

In 2021, the number of local currency sovereign downgrades (including defaults) declined to 12-–57% lower than in 2020 (see chart 8). With rating activity stabilizing, the ratio of local currency downgrades to upgrades declined to 1.8 to 1, from 8.7 to 1 in 2020 (see table 11).

Table 11

Summary Of Net Annual Sovereign Local Currency Rating Changes
(%)
Year	Issuer count as of Jan. 1	Upgrades	Downgrades*	Defaults	Withdrawn ratings	Changed ratings	Unchanged ratings	Downgrade/upgrade ratio
2000	80	11.25	6.25	1.25	0.00	18.75	81.25	0.56
2001	84	15.48	14.29	1.19	0.00	30.95	69.05	0.92
2002	88	9.09	15.91	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	1.75
2003	91	14.29	13.19	0.00	1.10	28.57	71.43	0.92
2004	97	17.53	10.31	1.03	0.00	28.87	71.13	0.59
2005	107	13.08	4.67	0.93	0.00	18.69	81.31	0.36
2006	112	13.39	3.57	0.89	1.79	19.64	80.36	0.27
2007	113	20.35	2.65	0.00	0.88	23.89	76.11	0.13
2008	119	6.72	13.45	0.84	0.84	21.85	78.15	2.00
2009	124	1.61	18.55	0.00	2.42	22.58	77.42	11.50
2010	125	14.40	12.00	0.80	0.00	27.20	72.80	0.83
2011	128	10.16	30.47	0.00	1.56	42.19	57.81	3.00
2012	129	6.98	18.60	0.78	0.00	26.36	73.64	2.67
2013	131	4.58	13.74	2.29	2.29	22.90	77.10	3.00
2014	132	8.33	13.64	0.00	1.52	23.48	76.52	1.64
2015	134	11.19	17.16	0.00	0.00	28.36	71.64	1.53
2016	137	7.30	18.25	0.00	1.46	27.01	72.99	2.50
2017	137	10.22	13.87	0.73	2.19	27.01	72.99	1.36
2018	135	9.63	7.41	0.74	0.00	17.78	82.22	0.77
2019	137	13.14	4.38	0.73	0.00	18.25	81.75	0.33
2020	140	2.14	18.57	1.43	0.00	22.14	77.86	8.67
2021	141	4.26	7.80	0.71	0.71	13.48	86.52	1.83
Weighted average		9.29	12.63	0.62	0.72	23.26	76.74	2.30
Median		8.33	12.00	0.71	0.00	22.58	77.42	1.28
Standard deviation		5.43	7.62	0.61	0.83	9.44	9.44	2.90
Minimum		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	57.81	0.13
Maximum		20.35	30.47	2.29	2.42	42.19	100.00	11.50
Notes: This table compares the net change in ratings from the first to the last day of each year. All intermediate ratings are disregarded. Descriptive statistics at the bottom of the table based on data for 1993-2021. *Excludes downgrades to 'SD', shown separately in the default column. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Last year the average notch change for local currency downgrades (excluding defaults) was 1.2 notches--the same as for foreign currency downgrades. Meanwhile, the average notch change of a local currency upgrade in 2021 remained 1.00, unchanged for the third consecutive year (see chart 12).

Table 12

Sovereign Local Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1993-2021)
(%)	--Ratings one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.15	3.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	1.46	91.97	5.35	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.73
A	0.00	2.89	90.10	6.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.41
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.23	88.86	5.79	0.89	0.22	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.98	85.31	7.58	0.95	0.47	0.71
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.59	88.44	3.74	1.36	1.87
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.86	56.90	13.79	3.45
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 13

Sovereign Local Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1993-2021)
(%)	--Ratings five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	81.29	16.93	0.22	1.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.45
AA	6.12	64.83	23.24	3.36	0.61	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.83
A	0.00	13.79	58.62	20.20	4.19	0.25	0.49	1.23	1.23
BBB	0.00	0.00	17.51	53.67	20.34	6.21	0.28	1.69	0.28
BB	0.00	0.00	1.44	20.98	45.69	25.29	2.01	2.59	2.01
B	0.00	0.00	0.23	2.08	16.40	60.74	7.39	6.00	7.16
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.78	2.78	38.89	8.33	30.56	16.67
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 14

Sovereign Local Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1993-2021)
(%)	--Ratings 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	65.17	26.21	4.14	1.72	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.41
AA	2.01	36.24	30.20	22.15	2.68	2.01	1.34	3.36	0.00
A	2.49	22.39	34.83	11.44	9.45	5.97	0.00	8.96	4.48
BBB	0.00	2.74	19.86	42.47	21.23	9.59	0.00	4.11	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	6.82	25.76	30.30	24.24	2.27	9.09	1.52
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.76	17.65	47.90	5.88	13.45	3.36
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	15.00	15.00	5.00	35.00	25.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Historical Sovereign Default Rates

Within our data series, 25 sovereigns that were rated with either a public foreign or local currency rating have defaulted, and half of these have defaulted multiple times. In 2021, Belize recorded its fifth foreign currency default, while Suriname had its second local currency default.

Included among the foreign currency defaults of past years are some sovereign members of monetary unions (such as Greece and Cyprus within the eurozone) (see table 15). In S&P Global Ratings' sovereign rating criteria, defaults of sovereign members of a monetary union are counted as foreign currency defaults because the individual country has no sovereign control over the common currency. In line with this reasoning, the local currency ratings on eurozone sovereigns converged with the (often lower) foreign currency ratings when they joined the union.

Table 15

Sovereign Foreign Currency Selective Defaults
Country	Selective default date	Emergence date	Time in selective default	Rating one year before selective default	Rating three years before selective default
Russia	Jan. 27, 1999	Dec. 8, 2000	22 months	BB-	-
Pakistan	Jan. 29, 1999	Dec. 21, 1999	11 months	B+	B+
Indonesia, first default	Mar. 29, 1999	Mar. 30, 1999	One day	B-	BBB
Indonesia, second default§	Apr. 17, 2000	Oct. 2, 2000	Six months	CCC+	BBB
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Jun. 01, 2005	54 months	BB	BB
Indonesia, third default	Apr. 22, 2002	Sep. 5, 2002	Four months	B-	CCC+
Paraguay	Feb. 13, 2003	Jul. 26, 2004	18 months	B	B
Uruguay	May. 16, 2003	Jun. 02, 2003	One month	BB-	BBB-
Grenada, first default	Dec. 30, 2004	Nov. 18, 2005	11 months	BB-	-
Venezuela, first default	Jan. 18, 2005	Mar. 03, 2005	One month	B-	B
Dominican Republic	Feb. 1, 2005	Jun. 29, 2005	Five months	CCC	BB-
Belize, first default	Dec. 7, 2006	Feb. 20, 2007	Three months	CCC-	B+
Seychelles*	Aug. 7, 2008	-	-	B	-
Ecuador, second default	Dec. 15, 2008	Jun. 15, 2009	Six months	B-	CCC+
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Feb. 24, 2010	One month	B	B
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	May. 2, 2012	Two months	BB+	A-
Mali	Mar. 31, 2012	-	-	-	-
Belize, second default	Aug. 21, 2012	Mar. 20, 2013	Seven months	B-	B
Grenada, second default	Oct. 8, 2012	Oct. 16, 2012	One week	B-	B-
Greece, second default	Dec. 5, 2012	Dec. 18, 2012	Two weeks	CC	A-
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Mar. 06, 2013	22 days	B-	SD
Grenada, third default*	Mar. 12, 2013	-	-	B-	B-
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Jul. 03, 2013	Five days	BB+	A+
Argentina, second default	Jul. 30, 2014	May. 06, 2016	22 months	B-	B
Ukraine	Sep. 25, 2015	Oct. 19, 2015	One month	CCC	B+
Mozambique, first default	April 1, 2016	April 15, 2016	15 days	B	B+
Congo-Brazzaville, first default	Aug. 02, 2016	Aug. 09, 2016	One week	B	-
Mozambique, second default	Jan. 18, 2017	Nov. 22, 2019	34 months	B-	B+
Belize, third default	Mar. 17, 2017	Mar. 23, 2017	Six days	B-	B-
El Salvador, first default	April 20, 2017	May 5, 2017	15 days	B+	BB-
Congo-Brazzaville, second default	Aug. 01, 2017	Sept. 5, 2015	One month	B-	B+
El Salvador, second default	Oct. 02, 2017	Oct. 03, 2017	One day	B+	BB-
Venezuela, second default	Nov. 13, 2017	-	-	CCC	CCC+
Barbados	Jun. 06, 2018	Dec. 11, 2019	Eighteen months	CCC+	B
Argentina, third default	Aug. 29, 2019	Aug. 30, 2019	One day	B+	B-
Argentina, fourth default§	Dec. 20, 2019	Dec. 30, 2019	Ten days	B	B-
Lebanon	Mar. 11, 2020	-	-	B-	B-
Argentina, fifth default	Apr. 07, 2020	Sep. 07, 2020	Five months	B	B
Ecuador, third default	Apr. 13, 2020	Sep. 01, 2020	Four months	B-	B
Suriname, first default	Jul. 13, 2020	Jul. 16, 2020	Three days	B	B
Belize, fourth default	Aug. 12, 2020	Aug. 21, 2020	Nine days	B-	B-
Zambia	Oct. 21, 2020	-	-	CCC+	B
Suriname, second default	Nov. 06, 2020	-	-	B	B
Belize, fifth default	May. 24, 2021	Nov. 09, 2021	Five months	CCC	B-
Notes: Includes sovereigns that were not rated at the time of default. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew the rating in 2008. *The rating on Seychelles was withdrawn while it was still in default. The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. §These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 16

Sovereign Local Currency Selective Defaults
Country	Selective default date	Emergence date	Time in selective default	Rating one year before selective default	Rating three years before selective default
Dominican Republic	Apr. 9, 1999	Jun. 12, 2001	26 months	BB	-
Suriname, first default	Jan. 1, 2000	Feb. 2, 2001	13 months	-	-
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Jun. 1, 2005	43 months	BBB-	BBB-
Cameroon	Sep. 1, 2004	Dec. 3, 2004	Three months	-	-
Grenada, first default	Jan. 1, 2005	Nov. 18, 2005	11 months	BB-	-
Grenada, second default§	Dec. 1, 2006	Apr. 2, 2007	Four months	B-	BB-
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Jun. 15, 2009	Six months	B-	CCC+
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Feb. 24, 2010	One month	B	B
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	May. 2, 2012	Two months	BB+	A-
Greece, second default§	Dec. 5, 2012	Dec. 18, 2012	Two weeks	CC	A-
Mali	Dec. 31, 2012	-	-	-	-
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Mar. 06, 2013	22 days	B-	B-
Grenada, third default*	Mar. 12, 2013	-	-	B-	B-
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	July 3, 2013	Five days	BB+	A+
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	May 5, 2017	15 days	B+	BB-
El Salvador, second default§	Oct. 02, 2017	Oct. 03, 2017	One day	B+	BB-
Barbados	Aug. 7, 2018	Nov. 16, 2018	Three months	CCC+	B
Argentina, second default	Aug. 29, 2019	Aug. 30, 2019	One day	B+	B-
Argentina, third default	Jan. 21, 2020	Sep. 07, 2020	Eight months	B	B-
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Sep. 01, 2020	Four months	B-	B
Suriname, second default	Jun. 03, 2021	-	-	CCC+	B
Note: Includes sovereigns that were not rated at the time of default. Cameroon and Grenada (excluding the third default) cured their local currency defaults before the ratings were changed. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew the rating in 2008. *The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. §These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Over the course of the rating history we track in this study (1975-2021), no sovereign that was rated 'AAA' at the beginning of a year defaulted within the ensuing 15 years. Venezuela is the only sovereign that was initially rated 'AAA' and eventually defaulted. In this case, Venezuela was first rated 'AAA' in 1977, downgraded to 'AA' in 1982, and downgraded to speculative-grade in 1983. Venezuela subsequently defaulted more than 20 years later, in 2005.

Moreover, cumulative default rates are generally higher at lower ratings (see table 17). For example, from 1975 to 2021, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'A' category was only about 1.2%. In comparison, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'BBB' category was 2.0%, and the 'CCC'/'CC' category shows a five-year average cumulative default rate of 57.1%.

The 15-year cumulative default rate averaged 3.17% for sovereigns with investment-grade ratings and 26.5% for sovereigns with speculative-grade ratings. The same trends are generally true when calculating default rates disaggregated by rating category.

Lower rating categories generally exhibit higher default rates over each time span (for example, as in the one- to 10-year time horizons shown in table 17). Some exceptions occur, such as when the number of defaults is low or when the underlying number of issuers is very small--such as with more granular pools split by region or by rating modifier (the plus or minus after the rating).

One such exception occurs in the cumulative default rates for sovereigns in the 'A' and 'BBB' categories over the 10- to 15-year horizons. The 'A' category includes the defaults of Greece, Cyprus, and Barbados, each of which had previously been rated in the 'A' category. While each of these issuers was downgraded to speculative-grade years before its eventual default, the defaults of Greece and Cyprus lift the cumulative average default rate for the 'A' category to 4.18% in year 10--modestly higher than the 4.10% default rate for the 'BBB' category over the same horizon. The cumulative default rates for both the 'A' and 'BBB' categories have declined in recent years, but this pair of defaults continues to have an outsize impact on the relatively small sample of 'A' issuers. (For more details on annual cumulative default rates for 'A' and 'BBB' category issuers, see tables 55 and 56 in Appendix 4.)

Table 17

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.23	0.72	1.23	1.76	2.33	2.92	3.53	4.18	4.85	5.58	6.37	6.80	7.74
BBB	0.00	0.41	1.07	1.53	2.02	2.55	3.11	3.41	3.74	4.10	4.50	4.92	5.39	6.39	6.94
BB	0.38	1.37	1.98	2.61	3.94	5.34	6.82	8.63	10.01	10.89	11.53	12.21	12.96	13.77	14.22
B	2.42	6.12	9.54	12.65	15.38	17.70	20.21	22.69	24.58	26.34	28.28	30.09	31.32	32.72	34.33
CCC/CC	37.50	44.20	51.48	54.03	57.09	63.22	66.57	66.57	66.57	66.57	69.91	69.91	69.91	69.91	69.91
Investment-grade	0.00	0.10	0.31	0.53	0.76	1.00	1.25	1.45	1.65	1.87	2.10	2.34	2.60	2.87	3.17
Speculative-grade	3.14	5.77	8.09	10.07	12.17	14.18	16.23	18.28	19.84	21.11	22.47	23.64	24.56	25.58	26.50
All rated	1.18	2.23	3.22	4.09	5.00	5.88	6.76	7.61	8.28	8.85	9.46	10.00	10.47	10.96	11.44
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Generally, cumulative default rates by rating category have been higher for foreign currency sovereign credit ratings than for local currency sovereign credit ratings (see tables 23 and 24). As "Sovereign Rating Methodology" explains, we consider that--other things being equal--the probability of default on a sovereign's local currency obligation may be lower than on a foreign currency obligation. Furthermore, the local currency sovereign default rates could be understated because it is hard to detect forced rollovers of domestic bank debt or coerced exchanges of local law, local currency debt when domestic financial institutions hold the debt.

Table 18

Sovereign Local Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1993-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.49	1.01	1.57	2.18	2.86
A	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.69	1.18	1.70	2.26	2.84	3.45	4.42	5.10	5.85	6.66	7.56	8.56
BBB	0.00	0.47	0.98	1.24	1.52	1.82	2.48	2.83	3.21	3.21	3.21	3.21	3.21	3.21	3.21
BB	0.47	1.22	1.48	1.75	2.33	3.25	3.90	4.94	6.07	6.89	7.79	8.79	9.91	11.17	11.90
B	1.36	2.81	4.37	5.43	6.57	7.58	8.69	9.93	10.62	11.79	12.67	13.18	13.76	14.46	15.29
CCC/CC	13.79	15.95	18.35	23.45	29.12	35.29	38.69	38.69	38.69	38.69	42.78	42.78	42.78	42.78	42.78
Investment-grade	0.00	0.11	0.29	0.48	0.67	0.88	1.17	1.40	1.64	1.90	2.18	2.47	2.80	3.15	3.53
Speculative-grade	1.69	2.88	3.94	4.85	5.95	7.14	8.14	9.24	10.09	11.04	12.10	12.81	13.61	14.54	15.26
All rated	0.62	1.13	1.62	2.06	2.57	3.11	3.64	4.15	4.59	5.07	5.58	5.99	6.45	6.96	7.42
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereigns that approach default usually experience multiple successive downgrades as the likelihood of default increases. Table 19 shows the last date of the highest rating, the number of intermediate rating actions (including outlook revisions) before default, and the date of the sovereign's default.

Table 19

Length Of Time To Default
Government	Date of default	Date of initial rating	Highest rating/outlook before default	Last date of highest rating	Number of intermediate rating actions
Foreign currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Russia	Jan. 27, 1999	Oct. 07, 1996	BB-/Stable	Jun. 8, 1998	4
Pakistan	Jan. 29, 1999	Nov. 21, 1994	B+/Positive	May. 31, 1998	4
Indonesia, first default	Mar. 29, 1999	Jul. 20, 1992	BBB/Stable	Oct. 9, 1997	7
Indonesia, second default§	Apr. 17, 2000	Mar. 30, 1999	CCC+/Stable	Apr. 16, 2000	0
Argentina, first default	Nov. 06, 2001	Aug. 25, 1993	BB/Stable	Nov. 13, 2000	7
Indonesia, third default	Apr. 22, 2001	Oct. 02, 2000	B-/Stable	May. 20, 2001	2
Paraguay	Feb. 13, 2003	Oct. 23, 1995	BB-/Stable	Feb. 3, 1999	3
Uruguay	May. 16, 2003	Feb. 14, 1994	BBB-/Stable	Feb. 13, 2002	7
Grenada, first default	Dec. 30, 2004	Mar. 22, 2002	BB-/Stable	Sep. 16, 2004	2
Venezuela, first default	Jan. 18, 2005	Oct. 05, 1977	AAA	Aug. 12, 1982	14
Dominican Republic	Feb. 01, 2005	Feb. 13, 1997	BB-/Stable	Jun. 9, 2003	5
Belize, first default	Dec. 07, 2006	Aug. 22, 2000	BB/Stable	Oct. 22, 2001	7
Seychelles*	Aug. 07, 2008	Sep. 14, 2006	B/Stable	July. 31, 2008	1
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Aug. 25, 2000	B-/Stable	Nov. 13, 2008	7
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Nov. 09, 1999	B+/Stable	Jul. 27, 2003	5
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	Sep. 09, 1988	A+/Stable	Nov. 16, 2004	13
Mali	Mar. 31, 2012	May. 05, 2004	B	Jul. 02, 2008	0
Belize, second default	Aug. 21, 2012	Feb. 20, 2007	B/Stable	Aug. 3, 2011	4
Grenada, second default	Oct. 08, 2012	Nov. 18, 2005	B-/Stable	Oct. 7, 2012	2
Greece, second default	Dec. 05, 2012	May. 02, 2012	CCC/Stable	Dec. 4, 2012	0
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Feb. 24, 2010	B-/Stable	Feb. 11, 2013	0
Grenada, third default*	Mar. 12, 2013	Oct. 16, 2012	CCC+/Negative	Mar. 11, 2013	0
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Feb. 14, 1994	AA-/Stable	Nov. 8, 1998	12
Argentina, second default	Jul. 30, 2014	Jun. 01, 2005	B+/Stable	Aug. 10, 2008	8
Ukraine	Sep. 25, 2015	Dec. 21, 2001	BB-/Stable	Jun. 11, 2008	14
Mozambique, first default	Apr. 01, 2016	Jul. 07, 2004	B+/Stable	Feb. 13, 2014	4
Congo-Brazzaville, first default	Aug. 02, 2016	Oct. 22, 2013	B+/Stable	Feb. 8, 2015	2
Mozambique, second default	Jan. 18, 2017	Apr. 15, 2016	B-/Stable	May. 26, 2016	2
Belize, third default	Mar. 17, 2017	Mar. 20, 2013	B-/Positive	Nov. 13, 2016	2
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	Aug. 26, 1996	BB+/Stable	May. 11, 2009	7
Congo-Brazzaville, second default	Aug. 01, 2017	Aug. 09, 2016	B-/Stable	Jul. 6, 2017	1
El Salvador, second default	Oct. 02, 2017	May. 05, 2017	CC/Negative	Oct. 1, 2017	0
Venezuela, second default*	Nov. 13, 2017	Mar. 03, 2005	BB-/Positive	Aug. 18, 2011	9
Barbados	Jun. 06, 2018	Dec. 17, 1999	A-/Stable	Aug. 4, 2004	9
Argentina, third default	Aug. 29, 2019	May. 06, 2016	B+/Stable	Oct. 30, 2017	4
Argentina, fourth default§	Dec. 20, 2019	Aug. 30, 2019	CCC-/Negative	Dec. 19, 2019	0
Lebanon	Mar. 11, 2020	Feb. 26, 1997	BB-/Stable	Feb. 04, 1998	9
Argentina, fifth default	Apr. 07, 2020	Dec. 30, 2019	CCC-/Negative	Apr. 06, 2020	0
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Jun. 15, 2009	B+/Stable	Aug. 11, 2015	3
Suriname, first default	Jul. 13, 2020	Nov. 23, 1999	BB-/Positive	Apr. 27, 2014	0
Belize, fourth default	Aug. 12, 2020	Mar. 23, 2017	B-/Stable	Apr. 15, 2020	2
Zambia	Oct. 21, 2020	Mar. 22, 2011	B+/Stable	Oct. 24, 2013	5
Suriname, second default	Nov. 06, 2020	Jul. 16, 2020	CCC/Stable	Nov. 05, 2020	3
Belize, fifth default	May. 24, 2021	Aug. 21, 2020	CCC+/Stable	Feb. 24, 2021	1
Local currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Dominican Republic	Apr. 9, 1999	Nov. 12, 1997	BB/Stable	Apr. 8, 1999	0
Suriname, first default	Jan. 1, 2000	Nov. 23, 1999	B/Stable	Dec. 31, 1999	0
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Sep. 01, 1994	BBB-/Stable	Nov. 13, 2000	6
Cameroon	Sep. 1, 2004	Nov. 26, 2003	B/Stable	Aug. 31, 2004	0
Grenada, first default	Jan. 1, 2005	Mar. 22, 2002	BB-/Stable	Sep. 16, 2004	3
Grenada, second default§	Dec. 1, 2006	Nov. 18, 2005	B-/Stable	Nov. 30, 2006	0
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Aug. 25, 2000	B-/Stable	Nov. 13, 2008	6
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Nov. 09, 1999	BB-/Stable	Jul. 27, 2003	6
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	Mar. 26, 1997	A+/Stable	Nov. 16, 2004	10
Greece, second default§	Dec. 5, 2012	May. 02, 2012	CCC/Stable	Dec. 4, 2012	0
Mali	Dec. 31, 2012	May. 05, 2004	B	Jul. 02, 2008	0
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Feb. 24, 2010	B-/Stable	Feb. 11, 2013	0
Grenada, third default*	Mar. 12, 2013	Apr. 02, 2007	B-/Stable	Oct. 7, 2012	2
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Jul. 16, 1996	AA+/Stable	Nov. 8, 1998	14
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	Aug. 26, 1996	BBB+/Stable	Jan. 22, 2001	7
El Salvador, second default§	Oct. 2, 2017	May. 05, 2017	CC/Negative	Oct. 1, 2017	0
Barbados	Aug. 7, 2018	Dec. 17, 1999	AA-/Stable	Aug. 19, 2003	11
Argentina, second default	Aug. 29, 2019	Jun. 01, 2005	B+/Stable	Oct. 30, 2017	12
Argentina, third default	Jan. 21, 2020	Aug. 30, 2019	CCC-/Negative	Jan. 20, 2020	0
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Jun. 15, 2009	B+/Stable	Aug. 11, 2015	3
Suriname, second default	Jun. 03, 2021	Feb. 02, 2001	BB-/Positive	Apr. 27, 2014	6
Note: Includes sovereigns that were not rated at the time of default. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew the rating in 2008. *The rating on Seychelles was withdrawn while it was still in default. The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. Cameroon and Grenada (excluding the third default) cured their local currency defaults before the ratings were changed. §These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

On average, for those sovereigns that eventually default, there is a correlation between the initial rating and the time to default--the higher the rating, the longer the time to default. For example, for the entire pool of sovereign defaults (1975-2021), the average times to default for issuers that were originally rated in the 'AA' and 'BBB' categories were 19.37 years and 15.08 years, respectively, from the initial ratings, whereas issuers in the 'B' rating category had an average time to default of only 6.82 years. Tables 20 and 21 display the medians, averages, and standard deviations for the time to default from the original rating for foreign currency and local currency ratings. Note that when an issuer emerges from a default (including selective default), we treat it as a new entity with a newly assigned initial rating.

Tables 22 and 23 present the average and median times to default from the date that each entity received each unique rating in its path to default, excluding the original rating.

Generally speaking, the average time to default for each rating category is longer when based on the initial rating on a sovereign than when based on later ratings.

Table 20

Time To Default From Original Rating--Foreign Currency Ratings
(Years)	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	27.29	27.29	-	1
AA	19.37	19.37	-	1
A	18.47	18.47	-	1
BBB	15.08	15.08	11.86	2
BB	9.98	7.76	7.74	8
B	6.82	6.19	4.98	22
CCC/CC	1.53	0.41	3.28	10
Total	7.57	6.29	7.33	45
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 21

Time To Default From Original Rating--Local Currency Ratings
(Years)	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	-	-	-	0
AA	17.80	17.80	1.19	2
A	14.92	14.92	-	1
BBB	13.92	13.92	9.52	2
BB	2.09	2.09	0.97	2
B	7.40	8.31	6.91	9
CCC/CC	3.09	0.50	4.39	6
Total	7.62	6.56	7.22	22
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 22

Time To Default From Post-Original Ratings--Foreign Currency Ratings
(Years)	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	-	-	-	0
AA	22.43	22.43	-	1
A	9.32	8.72	6.10	1
BBB	7.49	5.92	6.48	4
BB	6.25	4.60	5.86	4
B	4.61	3.34	4.54	16
CCC/CC	1.06	0.35	2.08	10
NR	3.74	3.74	-	1
Total	4.16	1.90	5.08	37
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 23

Time to Default From Post-Original Ratings--Local Currency Ratings
(Years)	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	-	-	-	0
AA	14.10	14.10	0.75	1
A	7.96	8.57	4.38	2
BBB	4.55	2.20	3.62	0
BB	5.80	5.38	5.13	3
B	4.40	3.57	4.21	5
CCC/CC	1.10	0.48	1.87	2
NR	1.21	1.21	4.65	1
Total	4.23	2.25	4.53	14
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Appendix 1: Gini Ratios

In addition to examining the absolute performance of ratings, we examine their relative performance. We utilize the Lorenz curve, a graphical representation of the proportionality of a distribution, as one measure of relative ratings performance, and we summarize this via the Gini coefficient. For this study, the Lorenz curve is plotted with the x-axis showing the cumulative share of issuers, arranged by rating, while the y-axis represents the cumulative share of defaulters, also arranged by rating. For both axes of the Lorenz curve, the observations are ordered from the low end of the ratings scale ('CCC'/'CC') to the high end ('AAA').

As an example, if 'CCC'/'CC' rated entities made up 10% of the total population of issuers at the start of the time frame examined (x-axis) and 50% of the defaulters (y-axis), then the coordinate (10, 50) would be the first point on the curve. If S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings only randomly approximated default risk, the Lorenz curve would fall along the diagonal. Its Gini coefficient--which is a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--would thus be zero. If the ratings were perfectly rank ordered so that all defaults occurred only among the lowest-rated entities, the curve would capture all of the area above the diagonal on the graph (the ideal curve), and the Gini coefficient would be 1.

Lorenz curves for foreign currency and local currency sovereign credit ratings resemble the ideal Lorenz curves, though the small sample size results in less accurate readings than in larger sectors. A larger number of data points would register a smooth line that curves as in chart 15. Many of the other charts show lines that take sharp turns, resulting in angles rather than curves.

Chart 13 shows the one-year Lorenz curve for sovereign foreign currency ratings, and table 24 provides each rating's coordinate. The first point indicates that sovereigns rated 'CCC+' and lower accounted for 1.70% of ratings and 53.9% of defaults over a one-year horizon. Sovereigns rated 'B+' and lower accounted for 21.75% of sovereign ratings and yet nearly 95% of defaults. Because there are no defaults at any rating level higher than 'BB-' over a one-year horizon, the chart shows a strong relationship between speculative-grade ratings and defaults. Fewer defaults come from the higher-rated cohorts of sovereigns.

Table 24

Sovereign One-Year Lorenz Curve Values
(%)	Y-axis: cumulative proportion of defaults	X-axis: cumulative proportion of ratings
AAA	100.00	100.00
AA+	100.00	81.87
AA	100.00	77.00
AA-	100.00	72.02
A+	100.00	67.35
A	100.00	63.61
A-	100.00	58.17
BBB+	100.00	53.28
BBB	100.00	49.06
BBB-	100.00	44.26
BB+	100.00	37.70
BB	100.00	33.41
BB-	100.00	28.07
B+	94.87	21.75
B	94.87	14.00
B-	82.05	6.56
CCC/CC	53.85	1.70
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Over the one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, weighted average Gini coefficients for foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are higher than those for local currency ratings. Foreign currency and local currency Gini coefficients are based on two separate datasets. Foreign currency ratings present a larger sample, with ratings over a longer time horizon and more defaults. Because the rating history for local currency ratings begins in 1993, credit events such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the global financial crisis in 2008, and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2012 have a higher impact within the shorter sample period (see charts 17-20).

Appendix 2: Regional Ratings Distribution And Rating Actions

Regional ratings distribution

S&P Global Ratings segments most of the sovereigns it rates into five regional categories:

• Middle East and Africa (including North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa)
• Latin America (including the Caribbean)
• Asia-Pacific
• Eurozone
• Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)--the former Soviet republics

In this study, we also include a broad designation for the emerging and frontier markets region, consisting of 103 sovereigns (currently and formerly rated), which come from all of the categories except the eurozone (see table 25).

Table 25

Sovereigns By Region
Middle East and Africa	Latin America	Central and Eastern Europe and Commonwealth of Independent States*	Asia-Pacific	Eurozone	Emerging and frontier markets
Abu Dhabi	Argentina	Albania	Australia	Austria	Abu Dhabi	Ethiopia	Papua New Guinea
Angola	Aruba	Armenia	Bangladesh	Belgium	Albania	Fiji	Paraguay
Bahrain	Bahamas	Azerbaijan	Cambodia	Cyprus	Angola	Gabon	Peru
Benin	Barbados	Belarus	China	Estonia§	Argentina	Georgia	Philippines
Botswana	Belize	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Cook Islands	Finland	Armenia	Ghana	Poland
Burkina Faso	Bermuda	Bulgaria	Fiji	France	Aruba	Grenada	Qatar
Cameroon	Bolivia	Croatia	Hong Kong	Germany	Azerbaijan	Guatemala	Ras Al Kaimah
Cape Verde	Brazil	Czech Republic	India	Greece	Bahamas	Honduras	Romania
Congo	Chile	Estonia§	Indonesia	Ireland	Bahrain	Hong Kong	Russia
Congo, D.R.	Colombia	Georgia	Japan	Italy	Bangladesh	Hungary	Rwanda
Egypt	Costa Rica	Hungary	Korea	Latvia§	Barbados	India	Saudi Arabia
Ethiopia	Curacao	Kazakhstan	Malaysia	Lithuania§	Belarus	Indonesia	Senegal
Ghana	Dominican Republic	Latvia§	Mongolia	Luxembourg	Belize	Iraq	Serbia
Iraq	Ecuador	Lithuania§	New Zealand	Malta	Bermuda	Israel	Sharjah
Israel	El Salvador	Macedonia	Pakistan	Netherlands	Bolivia	Ivory Coast (Cote d' Ivoire)	Singapore
Ivory Coast (Cote d' Ivoire)	Guatemala	Montenegro	Papua New Guinea	Portugal	Bosnia & Herzegovina	Jamaica	South Africa
Jordan	Honduras	Poland	Philippines	Slovak Republic§	Botswana	Jordan	Sri Lanka
Kenya	Jamaica	Romania	Singapore	Slovenia§	Brazil	Kazakhstan	Suriname
Kuwait	Mexico	Russia	Sri Lanka	Spain	Bulgaria	Kenya	Taiwan
Lebanon	Montserrat	Serbia	Taiwan		Burkina Faso	Korea	Tajikistan
Morocco	Nicaragua	Slovak Republic§	Thailand		Cambodia	Kuwait	Thailand
Mozambique	Panama	Slovenia§	Vietnam		Cameroon	Lebanon	Togo
Nigeria	Paraguay	Tajikistan			Cape Verde	Macedonia	Trinidad & Tobago
Oman	Peru	Turkey			Chile	Malaysia	Tunisia
Qatar	Suriname	Ukraine			China	Mexico	Turkey
Ras Al Khaimah	Trinidad and Tobago	Uzbekistan			Colombia	Mongolia	Turks and Caicos Islands
Rwanda	Turks and Caicos				Congo, D.R.	Montenegro	Uganda
Saudi Arabia	Uruguay				Congo-Brazzaville (Congo)	Montserrat	Ukraine
Senegal	Venezuela				Costa Rica	Morocco	Uruguay
Sharjah					Croatia	Mozambique	Uzbekistan
South Africa					Curacao	Nicaragua	Venezuela
St. Helena					Dominican Republic	Nigeria	Vietnam
Togo					Ecuador	Oman	Zambia
Uganda					Egypt	Pakistan
Zambia					El Salvador	Panama
*Commonwealth of Independent States, the alliance of 12 of the former republics of the Soviet Union. §Included in two European regions. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Most new sovereign ratings since 1998 have come from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. These regions have added the most speculative-grade ratings to the pool of sovereign ratings over the past decade.

The number of sovereign ratings in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS has also grown substantially over the past 20 years, totaling 26 at the end of 2021. This region includes both Russia and Ukraine, and the armed conflict between these two nations that began in 2022 has already contributed to multiple downgrades this year.

The Asia-Pacific and eurozone regions have a higher concentration of higher-rated issuers than other regions, and these two regions have experienced slower growth in terms of the number of rated sovereigns over the past 20 years. Much of the growth in sovereign ratings has come from regions with higher concentrations of lower-rated issuers, and this has reduced sovereign credit quality generally, even as the number of rated countries globally has increased.

Middle East and Africa

At the end of 2021, there were 33 sovereigns rated in the Middle East and Africa, and an additional two in default. This compares with nine rated sovereigns in 1998. Sovereign ratings in this region are concentrated at the lower rating levels. Of the 33 total sovereigns, 24 are rated speculative-grade, with 21 of these speculative-grade sovereigns rated in the 'B' category or lower (see chart 21).

Latin America

The number of Latin American sovereign credit ratings has increased steadily since 1992, and at least half of the rated issuers have been speculative-grade in all but one year (2014). At the end of 2021, there were 27 Latin American sovereigns with foreign currency sovereign credit ratings, and 16 of these were speculative-grade. Furthermore, one additional sovereign (Suriname) was 'SD' at the end of 2021. Among the 11 investment-grade sovereigns, the 'BBB' category is the largest, with nine sovereigns (see chart 22).

Asia-Pacific

Sovereign ratings in the Asia-Pacific region have remained relatively steady since 2007, with 21 rated sovereigns at the end of 2021. Asia-Pacific sovereigns show a broad range of credit quality. About 62% of rated sovereigns in the region are investment-grade, including two 'AAA' rated sovereigns: Australia and Singapore. Of the regions we cover, Asia-Pacific has the most even distribution of sovereign ratings, with no single rating category accounting for more than 25% of the region's foreign currency ratings (see chart 23).

Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS

At the end of 2021, there were 26 rated sovereigns from Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS, and the ratings mix of this region has grown increasingly investment-grade through 2021. The majority of rated sovereigns in the region in 2010-2018 were speculative-grade, but the investment-grade share has grown to 50% or more since 2019. However, the ratings mix within speculative-grade has grown weaker. By rating category, the 'B' category is the largest, having grown to eight issuers over the past six years, while the 'BB' category has shrunk. Within investment-grade, the 'BBB' category is largest, with six issuers (see chart 24).

Eurozone

Among our regional categories, the eurozone contains the fewest sovereign credit ratings, with 19, and this number has not changed since 1997. Eurozone ratings are also the highest, with over half of eurozone sovereign credit ratings either 'AAA' or in the 'AA' category, and just one sovereign in the region (Greece) is rated speculative-grade (in the 'BB' category) (see chart 25).

Emerging and frontier markets

At the end of 2021, there were 95 rated emerging and frontier markets sovereigns, 62% of which were speculative-grade. The number of rated emerging markets sovereigns has more than doubled since 1998, and sovereigns in this region remain predominantly speculative-grade. The 'B' rating category is the largest, accounting for 61% of speculative-grade issuers. The number of emerging and frontier market sovereigns rated 'CCC+' and lower has risen over the past 10 years and remains at its historical high (see chart 26).

Regional rating movement

Middle East and Africa.  Following last year's high of 13 downgrades, Middle Eastern and African sovereigns recorded only five downgrades in 2021.

Last year oil and commodity prices rallied from the extreme volatility in 2020, and this benefited several countries in this region by reducing pressure on economic and external balance metrics. Nonetheless, some challenges remained, as highlighted by the downgrades, four of which were related to deterioration in either fiscal or external financing metrics. The other negative rating action in the region (Ethiopia's downgrade) was attributed to political conflict.

Latin America.  Latin American sovereign downgrades declined to five in 2021 from a peak of 11 in 2020 (see chart 28). There were no upgrades in this region for a second consecutive year. Both defaults in 2021, including the foreign currency default of Belize and the local currency default of Suriname, were of Latin American countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated weaknesses among some sovereigns in the region, and two of the downgrades in 2021 were related to erosion of fiscal flexibility. Tourism-dependent sovereigns such as Aruba and the Bahamas continued to have weak external balances as the recovery in travel and leisure lagged that of most other sectors. Nonetheless, many economies in the region began to show improvement in 2021, which contributed to ratings stabilization, even though these improvements did not lead to upgrades during the year.

Asia-Pacific.  Asia-Pacific saw one downgrade and two upgrades in 2021 (see chart 29). The sole downgrade was for Fiji, where the lagging recovery of the tourism sector has weighed on the government's fiscal deficit and debt burden.

Most sovereigns in the region demonstrated relative economic resilience throughout multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply-chain pressures, and slower growth. The upgrades in the region included New Zealand, which experienced a faster-than-expected post-pandemic recovery, and Taiwan, where economic growth is now outperforming its pre-pandemic path.

Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS.  Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS had shown improving credit quality in recent years, with the number of annual upgrades rising steadily between 2015 and 2019. This was also the only region with sovereign upgrades in 2020.

However, this improvement came to a standstill in 2021, with no upgrades for the first time since 2009. And this slowdown in upgrades preceded the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is creating acute credit stress in the region. There was one downgrade in 2021: We lowered the foreign currency sovereign rating on Montenegro one notch, to 'B', after its balance of payments and fiscal position weakened and as its tourism sector faced a gradual pace of recovery.

Eurozone.  Eurozone sovereign rating actions have been largely positive in the past eight years as the region recovered from the global financial crisis and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. In each of the past eight years, upgrades have exceeded downgrades.

Moreover, eurozone sovereigns have not had a single downgrade over the past six years. However, over the past two years, the positive momentum in upgrades observed from 2014 to 2019 has also slowed (see chart 31).

Despite supply-chain bottlenecks and new virus strains through 2021, reductions in mobility restrictions and strong consumer sentiment paved the path to recovery. This was alongside sizable fiscal and monetary policy support, which provided a cushion from the pandemic's shock but contributed to larger budget deficits.

Emerging and frontier markets.  The credit quality of emerging and frontier markets, which include sovereigns also included within other regions, continued to take the biggest hit from the pandemic in 2021, particularly in Latin America and the Middle East and Africa. All 12 downgrades and defaults in the year were among emerging and frontier markets. This was, however, down significantly from last year's record tally of 26 downgrades and defaults. Speculative-grade issuers accounted for more than half of the emerging and frontier market downgrades in 2021.

While the pace of downgrades in the region slowed in 2021, the number of upgrades in the region rose to one (from zero) (see chart 32).

Other sovereigns

In addition to the sovereigns grouped in the regions above, 13 rated sovereigns--including the U.S., the U.K., and Canada--are not designated in any of these regional categories (see table 26).

Table 26

Ratings On Other Sovereigns, Including The U.S., The U.K., And Canada, As Of Dec. 31, 2021
Country	Foreign currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)	Local currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)
U.S.	AA+/Stable/A-1+	AA+/Stable/A-1+
U.K.	AA/Stable/A-1+	AA/Stable/A-1+
Canada	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Denmark	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Norway	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Sweden	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Switzerland	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Iceland	A/Stable/A-1	A/Stable/A-1
Liechtenstein	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Andorra	BBB/Stable/A-2	BBB/Stable/A-2
Guernsey	AA-/Stable/A-1+	AA-/Stable/A-1+
Jersey	AA-/Stable/A-1+	AA-/Stable/A-1+
Falkland Islands (The)	A+/Stable/A-1	A+/Stable/A-1
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Appendix 3: Methodology And Definitions

This study is based on long-term sovereign credit ratings. The methodology tracks rating migrations over time and includes revisions to 'SD' (selective default). An 'SD' rating is more common for sovereign issuers than a 'D' (default) rating because defaulting sovereigns often continue to service some of their debt. This study is based on issuer credit ratings as opposed to issue ratings. In other words, we look at the ratings on the central governments themselves, not the ratings on the individual securities these governments might have issued.

Our metrics treat all issuers equally and are not adjusted for size or influence. Therefore, for the purposes of this study, a default by Argentina counts the same as a default by Mali, even though the latter has a much smaller economy. Our study tracks defaults on a sovereign's commercial debt, including both bonds and bank loans.

Withdrawn ratings (as indicated with the abbreviation NR, which stands for "not rated") are included up until the date of withdrawal. We record defaults after the date of withdrawal if we obtain knowledge of those defaults. There are 204 total rating records for sovereigns, including defaulted ratings.

S&P Global Ratings generally defines "default" as the failure to meet a principal or interest payment on the due date contained in the original terms of a debt issue (see "S&P Global Ratings Definitions," Nov. 10, 2021). However, questions can arise when applying this definition to sovereign obligations. We consider a sovereign to be in default under any of the following circumstances:

• For local currency and foreign currency bonds, notes, and bills issued by the central government and held outside the public sector of the country, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or tenders an exchange offer of new debt with less favorable terms than the original issue.
• For private-sector bank loans incurred by the central government, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or negotiates with the bank creditors a rescheduling of principal or interest at less favorable terms than in the original loan.

Emergence from default also can be a complicated analytical issue for sovereigns. Sovereigns often undertake debt restructurings through exchange offers that, we find, rarely close the books on the restructured debt. For a number of reasons, from difficulty in contacting all debtholders to holdouts seeking payment in accordance with original terms, we have observed that participation in sovereign distressed debt exchanges usually does not reach 100%. This stands in contrast with debt restructurings in the U.S. and many other jurisdictions, where all obligations are typically addressed in bankruptcy reorganization. An entity reorganizing outside of bankruptcy generally must continue payments on the holdouts' debt or face the prospect of an involuntary bankruptcy filing.

Less common among sovereign defaults is the repudiation of debt, which most often follows a revolutionary change of regime (as occurred in Russia in 1917, China in 1949, and Cuba in 1960). S&P Global Ratings takes no position on the propriety of government debt defaults, repudiations, and the like. S&P Global Ratings also does not take a position on the course of negotiations (or the absence thereof) between creditors and the government to work out debt that is repudiated or the parameters of any settlements between creditors and governments that could occur. Instead, our issuer credit ratings are forward-looking opinions about an obligor's overall creditworthiness. We analyze historical defaults to form our own view as to the extent that they could affect the likelihood of the sovereign defaulting in the future.

In general, S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings apply only to debt that the present government acknowledges as its own. If there is no resolution of a default through the courts or by the parties involved, S&P Global Ratings eventually withdraws the defaulted ratings based on the diminished prospects for resolution and the defaulted ratings' lack of relevance in the context of the market. For example, S&P Global Ratings has no ratings on direct and guaranteed debt of the government of China issued prior to the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 because S&P Global Ratings first rated China in 1992, long after the new government repudiated pre-1949 debt. The default is included in our sovereign default survey, which covers defaults by rated and unrated issuers.

Our dataset includes sovereign credit ratings that were withdrawn following a default. In those cases, if the sovereign has been rated again, a new record would have been established, and the new rating would not be connected to the defaulted rating. This creates more than one record for defaulted sovereigns.

Static pool methodology

S&P Global Ratings Research conducts its default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issuers by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. All issuers included in the study are assigned to one or more static pools. When an issuer defaults, we assign that default back to all of the static pools to which the issuer belonged.

We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates, such as by ensuring that default rates account for rating migration and can be calculated across multiperiod time horizons. Some methods for calculating default and rating transition rates might charge defaults against only the initial rating on the issuer, ignoring more recent rating changes that supply more current information. Other methods may calculate default rates using only the most recent year's default and rating data, which may yield comparatively low default rates during periods of high rating activity because they ignore prior years' default activity.

The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of sovereigns in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Dec. 31, 1975, to avoid continuity problems.

For instance, the 1976 static pool consists of all sovereigns rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1976. Adding those sovereigns first rated in 1976 to the surviving members of the 1976 static pool forms the 1977 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1977 static pool through the ratings on these entities as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1977. We used the same method to form static pools for 1978-2021.

Consider the following example for annual static pools: A sovereign is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1986 and downgraded to 'B' in 1988. This is followed by a default in 1993. We would include this hypothetical issuer in the 1987 and 1988 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1989-1993 pools with the 'B' rating. Yet each of the seven pools in which this sovereign was included (1987-1993) would record its 1993 default at the appropriate time horizon.

Default rate calculations

Cumulative default rates average the experience of all static pools in a select period of time by calculating marginal weighted average default rates conditional on survival (survivors being nondefaulters) for each possible time horizon and accumulating marginal default rates. We calculate conditional-on-survival default rates by dividing the number of issuers in a static pool that default within a specific time horizon by the number of issuers that survived (did not default) up to that point in time. In the context of sovereign ratings, we treat the defaults of governments that selectively default as complete defaults.

Transition analysis

Transition rates compare issuer credit ratings at the beginning of a period with ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. An issuer that remained rated for more than one year was counted as many times as the number of years it was rated.

For instance, an issuer continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If the rating on the issuer was withdrawn in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.

All 1975 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2021, had 46 one-year transitions, while sovereigns first rated on Jan. 1, 2021, had only one. Table 1 displays the summary of one-year transitions in the investment-grade and speculative-grade rating categories. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to 'SD', plus an entry for NR.

The only ratings considered in these calculations are those on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if an entity was rated 'A' on Jan. 1, 2015, and was downgraded to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this entity would be included only in the percentage of issuers that began the year at 'A' that ended the year at 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons. If an issuer defaults, we consider the rating as of Dec. 31 of that particular year to be 'D'. Similarly, if we withdraw our rating on an issuer, the methodology considers the issuer as of Dec. 31 of that year to be not rated.

Multiyear transitions

Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two to 15 years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1975-2017 with the ratings at the end of the years 1978-2021. Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions.

We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issuer-weighted averages.

For inclusion in the matrix, the issuer must be in at least one year. In the case of the three-year matrix, we must have rated the sovereign by Jan. 1, 2018; in the case of the 15-year matrix, we must have rated it by Jan. 1, 2006. Thus, there are progressively fewer observations the longer the transition period is, given the growth of sovereign ratings and, of course, given that there will be fewer static pools for each added set of 12 monthly cohorts in the matrix.

Annualized 12-month cohorts

In past studies, we have also included calculations of sovereigns' rating performance based on annualized 12-month cohorts, where static pools were created with monthly start dates and rating transitions were measured over 12-month increments for each monthly static pool. Unless otherwise noted in this study, we've utilized an annual static pool methodology to calculate average transition rates, default rates, and Gini ratios. An annual static pool groups all rated entities as of Jan. 1 of a given year and compares those ratings with those on the entities as of Dec. 31 of the same year (for a one-year horizon).

In contrast, an annualized 12-month static pool approach would compare the ratings on entities as of the beginning of each month with the ratings on those entities 12 months later (for a one-year horizon). Transition and default rates calculated with this type of annualized monthly static pool approach can be found in tables in Appendix 4 (see table 27-44 for transition rates and tables 53-54, 60, and 62-68).

Gini ratios based on this annualized monthly static pool approach diverge somewhat from the Ginis shown in table 2 (which utilize the annual static pool approach). Annualized monthly static pools yield weighted average Gini ratios for foreign currency ratings of 91.0%, 80.5%, 75.4%, and 70.4% over one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, respectively. For local currency ratings, annualized monthly static pools result in weighted average Gini ratios of 83.4%, 72.0%, 65.4%, and 57.2% over one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, respectively.

Rating modifiers

Our calculations of upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, consider the specific rating as opposed to the rating category (for example, 'A-', 'A', and 'A+' rather than the 'A' rating category). However, for practical reasons, some transition tables may use rating categories. This means that actions such as a downgrade to 'AA-' from 'AA' or an upgrade to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-' are not considered transitions because the ratings remained within the same rating category.

Appendix 4: Additional Exhibits

Transition rates

Table 27

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.78	3.14	0.01	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	2.14	93.78	2.86	0.29	0.25	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.64
A	0.00	3.96	90.42	4.94	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.55	90.53	4.37	0.40	0.13	0.00	0.02
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.96	86.49	6.09	0.53	0.44	0.50
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	4.51	87.67	3.28	2.89	1.63
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.15	40.61	35.31	1.93
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 28

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.39	8.50	0.09	0.16	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.44
AA	6.82	82.11	7.67	1.92	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.20
A	0.00	11.38	72.43	13.22	1.68	0.10	0.28	0.46	0.46
BBB	0.00	0.00	14.85	71.62	10.92	1.07	0.24	0.96	0.33
BB	0.00	0.00	0.21	17.61	64.04	14.01	0.73	2.25	1.16
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.27	11.55	70.68	3.86	9.63	4.01
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.78	23.44	18.95	49.80	7.03
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 29

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.44	13.13	0.14	0.86	0.81	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.63
AA	11.88	71.56	12.63	2.08	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.20
A	0.00	17.70	56.11	20.75	2.96	0.13	0.30	1.55	0.50
BBB	0.00	0.04	22.69	56.93	14.61	2.43	0.35	2.08	0.87
BB	0.00	0.00	1.50	22.38	52.65	16.36	1.14	4.43	1.55
B	0.00	0.00	0.03	2.50	14.06	58.81	3.81	15.03	5.76
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.46	4.36	17.43	8.26	55.73	13.76
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 30

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.30	22.68	1.16	1.23	0.49	0.52	0.00	0.00	1.61
AA	23.69	53.21	15.27	5.65	2.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06
A	1.51	23.66	40.21	21.23	5.59	1.56	0.38	5.23	0.63
BBB	0.00	3.91	29.39	40.35	15.51	2.15	0.45	5.27	2.97
BB	0.00	0.00	4.87	32.01	31.85	17.27	1.30	10.94	1.76
B	0.00	0.00	0.05	5.20	21.76	40.31	1.73	25.21	5.74
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.56	13.74	0.32	63.26	20.13
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 31

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	67.14	28.39	1.44	0.00	0.45	0.80	0.00	0.00	1.78
AA	31.94	38.25	13.90	12.39	2.82	0.29	0.22	0.18	0.00
A	3.89	28.51	38.00	14.46	2.76	3.47	0.63	8.28	0.00
BBB	0.00	10.09	33.99	25.25	14.17	3.32	0.63	8.21	4.35
BB	0.00	0.00	4.89	42.31	21.82	14.44	0.27	15.53	0.74
B	0.00	0.00	0.10	10.76	17.84	35.93	1.03	32.70	1.64
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.31	0.00	7.02	0.00	63.64	26.03
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 32

Sovereign Local Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1993-2021)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.04	3.96	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	1.47	91.95	5.06	0.77	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75
A	0.00	2.92	90.26	6.04	0.31	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.31
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.40	88.99	5.98	0.52	0.10	0.00	0.02
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.06	85.17	7.66	0.86	0.62	0.62
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	88.27	3.36	1.61	2.00
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.65	55.81	10.97	2.58
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1993 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 33

Sovereign Local Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1993-2021)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	80.81	17.18	0.15	1.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.78
AA	5.99	64.90	23.58	3.44	0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.46
A	0.00	13.29	57.97	20.91	4.48	0.57	0.29	1.49	1.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	18.12	53.95	20.45	4.98	0.66	1.42	0.42
BB	0.00	0.00	1.45	20.01	45.93	25.57	2.04	2.98	2.02
B	0.00	0.00	0.20	2.02	16.61	61.31	6.19	6.01	7.65
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.92	2.70	41.91	11.76	24.02	15.69
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1993 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 34

Sovereign Local Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1993-2021)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	64.55	26.70	3.78	1.95	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.53
AA	2.88	33.86	31.43	21.95	3.44	1.64	1.30	3.50	0.00
A	2.08	22.50	34.41	12.18	10.23	5.18	0.27	8.86	4.30
BBB	0.00	2.38	21.27	42.36	20.84	8.62	0.00	4.52	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	6.69	25.28	32.78	23.14	1.61	8.96	1.54
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.20	16.18	49.18	5.58	13.04	2.83
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.18	15.91	8.64	8.64	30.00	28.64
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1993 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 35

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.78	2.71	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	6.37	84.07	6.53	1.75	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.27
AA	0.00	6.22	85.16	6.74	0.52	0.42	0.10	0.52	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	7.77	82.90	7.11	0.17	0.50	0.17	0.00	0.17	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67
A+	0.00	0.00	0.07	13.29	72.93	9.26	2.02	1.11	0.14	0.63	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.49
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.15	12.33	77.31	5.71	1.68	0.77	0.96	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	11.41	77.39	6.90	0.41	1.56	0.67	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.57
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.16	12.39	70.84	11.24	2.41	0.60	0.24	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.87	16.61	68.10	11.17	0.99	0.11	0.00	0.50	0.22	0.11	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	14.96	74.78	6.51	2.13	0.27	0.08	0.15	0.12	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54	20.57	66.39	9.93	1.14	0.18	0.06	0.00	0.18	0.36	0.00	0.48	0.18	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.78	14.23	70.96	11.17	1.80	0.68	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.10	0.10
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.02	10.43	72.92	11.33	1.18	0.45	0.16	0.12	0.16	0.16	0.89	1.18
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.92	10.17	68.47	15.25	2.49	0.34	0.20	0.14	0.17	0.65	1.13
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59	13.12	68.78	9.56	1.73	0.86	0.21	0.03	2.31	2.80
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.42	14.99	66.48	5.30	1.46	0.73	0.51	7.55	0.56
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.21	2.95	22.85	44.47	6.39	0.49	0.00	17.69	2.95
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.44	16.26	0.00	18.70	6.50	5.69	50.41	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.17	0.00	0.00	4.35	8.70	84.78	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 36

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.39	6.34	1.39	0.76	0.00	0.04	0.04	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.44
AA+	18.69	59.99	14.16	4.64	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.51
AA	0.80	15.21	62.36	15.21	1.99	1.14	1.14	0.80	0.28	0.74	0.00	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	2.44	18.32	53.15	14.72	2.38	3.02	0.19	0.96	2.12	0.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.19
A+	0.00	0.00	4.82	28.59	37.91	15.17	1.90	3.48	2.45	2.37	0.79	1.34	0.00	0.16	0.16	0.00	0.24	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.39	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	24.72	45.85	8.36	5.62	3.44	3.14	0.86	0.15	0.10	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.30	0.20	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.55	5.43	22.70	49.45	12.46	2.93	2.38	0.33	1.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.78	1.27
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.58	7.61	19.10	40.92	16.52	10.40	1.63	0.68	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.48	0.07
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.49	3.95	12.29	19.58	35.95	13.03	7.78	1.98	1.11	1.30	0.31	0.06	0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.36	0.19
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.04	3.29	10.00	25.31	40.85	9.39	5.97	1.08	0.52	0.65	0.17	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.04	1.00	0.61
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.74	2.11	7.88	33.33	29.86	16.64	4.53	1.06	1.49	0.62	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.37	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.51	1.90	9.78	19.06	37.70	19.77	7.94	0.82	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	1.33	0.46
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.70	4.19	20.24	38.05	15.15	6.94	3.83	0.99	0.09	0.27	0.23	3.70	2.61
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.61	1.37	3.49	12.82	39.97	23.55	8.38	1.02	1.21	0.53	0.68	4.17	2.12
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75	0.47	7.69	17.66	38.16	14.94	1.66	0.67	0.35	0.00	9.50	8.16
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.40	0.93	3.97	6.42	29.54	32.45	5.17	0.79	0.13	0.46	19.40	0.33
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.61	0.61	7.36	9.82	13.80	25.77	3.07	0.92	0.00	26.99	11.04
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.04	0.94	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	83.02	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	97.30	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 37

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.44	8.53	3.06	1.54	0.00	0.09	0.05	0.63	0.00	0.23	0.00	0.81	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.63
AA+	25.84	44.79	19.72	7.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18	0.65	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.59
AA	6.76	15.22	45.36	18.57	6.13	2.91	3.54	0.76	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.51	7.50	21.40	33.99	18.27	4.44	5.60	0.80	1.31	2.33	0.00	1.75	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.11
A+	0.00	2.23	9.87	31.10	18.99	12.76	2.05	6.24	5.21	6.05	1.02	1.40	0.00	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.00	0.00	2.70	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	1.86	12.94	22.97	30.19	8.59	5.99	5.09	7.21	1.27	1.54	0.11	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.16	0.11	0.00	0.37	1.43	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.28	8.08	22.58	33.60	14.50	6.55	4.65	1.47	1.47	0.43	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.92	1.41
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.16	6.07	8.15	18.93	32.51	15.89	11.34	4.55	0.96	0.56	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.56	0.08
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.67	9.35	14.29	17.89	17.96	11.42	9.41	5.47	2.54	1.74	2.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.20	1.80
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.24	4.69	8.08	14.31	19.87	28.05	9.91	5.32	2.51	1.16	0.92	0.53	0.68	0.10	0.00	0.05	2.90	0.68
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67	3.57	2.02	20.26	24.09	15.41	16.62	8.68	2.89	0.67	2.15	1.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.82	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.88	1.60	5.01	13.42	15.79	29.87	17.77	10.40	1.10	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.66	0.11	2.48	0.50
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.81	1.06	4.65	8.34	21.79	21.59	12.69	8.39	7.33	0.40	0.91	0.00	0.15	8.19	3.69
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.34	0.51	3.04	1.14	2.28	12.54	29.90	23.23	11.02	1.90	0.76	0.21	0.63	9.04	3.38
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.14	1.23	0.41	2.01	11.27	15.78	26.60	11.72	1.92	0.91	0.32	0.09	16.10	11.36
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.48	1.13	0.97	2.58	7.57	12.80	26.01	18.12	4.83	0.24	0.16	0.16	24.56	0.40
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75	0.75	0.00	5.97	4.48	7.84	9.33	4.48	7.46	1.49	0.00	35.07	22.39
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.17	1.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	81.82	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	96.97	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 38

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.30	13.01	6.79	2.88	0.78	0.10	0.28	1.06	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.49	0.00	0.52	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.61
AA+	34.15	25.11	26.30	9.82	0.21	0.91	0.70	0.84	0.49	1.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14
AA	19.87	21.42	12.92	11.86	19.13	2.78	1.14	1.88	2.04	3.11	0.00	3.84	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	11.71	8.31	8.08	33.49	6.09	9.37	11.12	1.29	2.34	5.04	2.81	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	6.37	1.56	16.83	1.56	16.23	9.50	12.26	5.05	12.62	11.90	0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.77	0.00
A	0.12	1.74	11.39	20.29	12.94	8.28	16.74	6.60	3.24	1.87	0.81	2.36	1.31	3.30	0.19	0.00	0.19	0.25	0.00	0.44	7.97	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	1.16	12.13	14.27	11.14	19.31	8.25	9.41	10.48	7.34	2.56	0.74	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.24	1.90
BBB+	0.00	0.00	1.80	3.72	1.54	13.48	21.18	18.36	2.44	12.07	8.22	4.62	4.62	0.00	2.70	0.77	1.93	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.44	0.13
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.77	7.51	5.11	11.85	10.98	8.48	11.95	13.78	5.39	6.74	0.87	1.45	0.67	1.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.72	8.38
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.35	17.86	7.61	14.42	14.69	19.47	8.83	4.45	2.96	0.34	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	0.67
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.02	3.02	7.29	8.38	6.62	20.60	8.71	8.88	11.64	4.86	3.52	5.28	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.70	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.42	0.00	6.98	15.08	15.22	6.42	12.85	16.62	14.39	4.68	0.77	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.38	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.31	2.93	11.74	8.19	5.48	15.75	8.57	6.02	6.80	4.94	1.00	1.31	0.31	0.31	21.00	5.33
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.00	4.25	3.62	2.47	4.19	7.42	19.23	19.61	9.01	1.90	0.70	0.25	0.06	20.37	6.79
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.78	0.79	1.93	3.93	15.56	17.49	13.78	7.64	0.07	1.00	0.00	0.14	27.69	7.21
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.82	1.78	5.60	18.31	15.03	4.64	4.37	17.76	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.00	30.87	0.68
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.36	9.95	0.00	0.00	0.45	0.00	56.11	28.51
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	39.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	60.87	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 39

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2021)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	67.14	15.66	7.91	4.82	0.90	0.54	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.37	0.09	0.45	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.78
AA+	39.25	18.95	19.35	11.62	3.34	0.72	1.91	3.34	1.35	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	30.80	11.00	4.29	10.89	14.08	1.10	0.22	5.39	9.02	7.59	2.64	2.31	0.00	0.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	17.44	11.03	3.56	17.08	16.90	9.61	2.67	0.53	11.39	1.78	1.25	4.45	0.00	0.00	0.36	0.00	0.53	0.53	0.00	0.00	0.89	0.00
A+	8.41	6.22	6.40	14.08	6.76	18.65	14.63	4.75	1.65	9.87	3.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.48	0.00
A	4.85	2.99	12.49	10.94	11.04	7.02	23.63	8.88	0.10	2.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.24	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	4.22	27.74	21.46	3.20	7.99	7.42	3.42	5.37	2.85	0.80	1.94	5.37	2.40	0.68	1.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.42	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	4.91	16.29	10.04	14.29	17.19	14.06	4.02	1.79	2.01	1.12	5.36	2.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.47	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	8.74	9.02	13.25	6.69	12.70	5.46	5.60	7.79	2.19	8.33	3.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.74	11.20
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.14	12.48	16.10	11.71	4.76	15.52	8.48	7.43	0.95	0.10	1.43	4.48	0.57	0.10	0.00	0.67	10.67	1.43
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.80	8.09	0.00	11.76	17.19	27.56	3.41	0.63	3.16	2.78	5.82	2.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.77	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.02	11.44	14.30	26.35	1.23	7.56	11.24	9.81	6.33	0.92	0.72	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.74	0.00	0.00	11.04	4.22	1.24	7.57	10.30	20.47	8.31	2.61	4.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	26.05	2.36
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.26	0.00	0.00	2.20	4.52	5.68	6.59	10.47	3.88	21.06	4.39	7.88	1.68	0.00	0.00	0.00	31.40	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.49	4.26	5.22	2.47	3.43	10.44	17.99	8.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.50	4.40
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.90	6.68	3.56	11.58	8.24	13.59	11.14	13.59	0.67	0.67	0.00	0.22	27.17	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.68	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	58.48	36.84
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	40.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	46.88	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1975 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 40

Sovereign Local Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2021)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.04	2.74	1.09	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	5.68	80.86	8.25	2.88	0.16	0.00	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.92
AA	0.00	2.58	85.92	8.52	0.62	0.62	0.79	0.95	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	4.92	81.96	10.45	0.22	0.67	0.95	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67
A+	0.00	0.00	0.66	7.89	76.32	10.86	2.25	1.04	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.38
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.62	11.28	73.60	10.66	2.87	0.72	0.15	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35	13.84	71.62	10.44	1.12	1.27	0.61	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.56
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.92	9.91	71.41	11.91	3.49	1.18	0.56	0.15	0.00	0.21	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.11	10.82	71.15	14.49	1.32	0.69	0.21	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.39	11.69	72.29	10.18	2.62	0.61	0.61	0.17	0.17	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.03	13.72	68.31	11.78	3.58	0.00	0.55	0.00	0.12	0.24	0.00	0.43	0.18	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59	14.77	63.26	13.74	2.35	1.54	0.96	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.32	1.03
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.11	8.25	72.52	12.40	2.43	0.71	0.35	0.61	0.00	0.25	0.51	0.86
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.29	1.22	10.15	68.37	15.46	2.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.51	1.39
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.15	1.12	10.91	70.28	10.61	1.75	0.41	0.00	0.19	1.12	3.46
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.69	2.49	14.05	69.00	6.54	1.50	0.17	1.10	3.88	0.58
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.26	4.17	28.91	49.48	7.55	1.30	1.82	3.39	3.13
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.31	30.77	1.54	21.54	14.62	5.38	23.85	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.89	0.00	0.00	79.25	0.00	11.32	7.55
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.64	11.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	32.08	33.96	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1993 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 41

Sovereign Local Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2021)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	87.84	7.45	3.24	0.64	0.00	0.05	0.04	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.55
AA+	14.61	53.76	10.54	13.20	0.27	1.42	1.24	2.04	0.00	0.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.39
AA	0.86	4.18	69.35	16.74	2.15	1.54	2.22	1.05	1.11	0.80	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.78	12.88	50.68	22.01	3.95	4.60	1.75	0.26	0.91	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.20
A+	0.00	0.00	2.15	21.29	42.70	19.32	6.44	3.10	1.73	0.06	0.42	1.01	0.00	0.00	0.12	1.01	0.18	0.18	0.00	0.00	0.30	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.51	18.97	44.31	15.29	10.66	4.97	1.40	0.95	0.17	0.11	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.33	0.22	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54	9.47	23.95	38.21	13.88	3.81	4.25	0.33	2.78	0.33	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.76	1.31
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.38	5.64	17.31	38.99	13.61	11.73	6.36	1.11	0.55	0.00	0.66	0.88	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.39	0.17
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	5.31	18.84	41.49	17.18	11.95	2.16	1.00	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.25	1.16
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.14	1.27	4.44	20.13	42.60	12.95	6.03	4.63	1.14	2.98	0.70	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.52	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.02	3.31	8.78	17.12	39.02	18.20	8.91	0.32	1.53	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.15	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.29	2.91	8.82	19.26	20.23	20.87	10.52	1.86	8.74	1.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.86	2.27
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.86	2.82	2.70	13.22	40.46	18.74	9.83	4.02	1.15	1.15	0.00	0.52	2.30	2.24
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.29	0.38	1.33	2.80	13.69	43.01	23.29	7.46	1.28	0.76	0.00	0.14	1.81	3.75
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.26	1.07	2.19	7.57	14.92	40.76	16.04	2.49	1.16	0.52	0.39	3.22	9.42
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.49	3.08	3.08	4.20	27.43	39.96	7.35	0.84	0.49	2.66	9.73	0.35
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.58	0.63	0.63	5.99	18.93	23.66	22.71	3.15	1.89	0.00	9.46	11.36
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.77	0.00	4.42	1.77	19.47	14.16	0.00	0.00	25.66	0.00	32.74	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	70.00	0.00	5.00	20.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	24.32	24.32	10.81	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.54	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1993 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 42

Sovereign Local Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2021)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	80.81	11.04	4.93	1.21	0.00	0.11	0.04	0.78	0.00	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.78
AA+	17.99	38.94	9.64	18.98	1.67	3.24	1.38	1.97	2.46	1.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.65
AA	2.77	2.90	56.22	18.60	8.99	3.18	4.98	0.83	0.41	1.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.51	2.11	16.22	31.13	25.75	8.73	8.65	1.96	0.00	1.09	0.00	1.75	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.11
A+	0.00	0.00	6.05	25.62	25.82	17.56	8.92	6.85	3.33	1.66	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.13	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.00	1.93	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.84	6.07	12.37	33.57	16.16	9.67	7.87	6.25	1.44	2.28	0.48	0.00	0.42	0.00	0.18	0.12	0.00	0.42	1.62	0.24
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.73	15.71	20.56	22.73	13.23	7.20	5.96	3.98	2.30	1.74	0.06	0.00	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	2.73
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.48	9.75	16.22	22.56	12.09	13.64	9.46	2.57	1.50	0.48	2.39	1.02	0.00	0.12	0.00	0.12	0.42	0.18
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.00	7.87	19.76	27.53	12.08	14.89	5.62	5.24	2.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.28	1.31
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.15	2.99	1.64	4.03	17.25	35.40	13.22	5.00	6.65	3.14	2.17	3.06	0.75	0.90	0.00	0.07	3.58	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.66	4.98	13.59	14.23	31.89	13.95	12.26	0.35	0.21	2.24	1.12	0.91	0.00	0.14	1.47	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.42	4.01	8.64	10.24	15.14	8.82	12.82	17.90	2.58	13.54	0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.05	2.49
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.86	2.12	2.84	1.65	12.16	27.43	19.63	12.16	8.99	1.32	1.52	0.00	0.33	5.09	3.57
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.38	0.00	0.54	1.41	1.47	4.84	11.41	31.20	27.23	10.60	1.74	0.87	0.65	0.11	1.96	5.60
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.15	0.15	1.01	1.26	0.61	3.79	12.87	13.73	26.10	16.20	2.68	0.96	1.11	0.00	5.75	13.63
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54	0.45	0.45	1.96	5.35	6.33	8.30	27.39	22.30	8.83	0.45	0.80	3.30	13.11	0.45
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.79	0.71	0.71	0.00	2.86	5.00	20.00	15.36	4.29	3.57	2.14	0.36	21.79	21.43
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.02	8.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.04	36.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	19.39	0.00	28.57	4.08
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	57.14	7.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1993 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 43

Sovereign Local Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2021)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.09	13.83	5.29	3.17	1.44	0.13	0.36	1.37	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.09
AA+	6.60	15.49	25.77	9.05	9.97	10.43	1.53	6.13	4.14	10.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.31
AA	3.59	4.16	28.73	15.60	24.10	6.52	5.20	2.27	2.36	3.59	0.00	3.88	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	7.13	0.11	8.00	37.94	12.72	5.15	11.95	2.19	1.86	6.47	4.82	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.00	0.33	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.00
A+	0.15	2.13	19.68	12.84	10.49	11.63	11.63	8.43	8.43	3.80	4.41	0.84	0.68	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.86	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	4.11	7.09	7.17	17.81	18.21	6.61	6.12	3.71	0.64	7.01	2.18	4.27	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.56	8.86	5.16
A-	0.00	0.00	1.26	5.66	3.86	20.11	20.92	10.95	6.64	9.34	9.07	1.44	0.54	0.09	1.89	0.54	0.54	0.81	0.00	0.18	2.24	3.95
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.67	3.66	15.63	12.22	6.15	2.58	12.14	11.72	17.54	7.23	6.73	1.33	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.91	0.25
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.26	6.94	0.00	15.16	13.17	37.11	2.97	1.13	7.79	7.08	2.41	0.71	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42	1.42
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.25	1.38	2.51	6.15	20.58	30.24	1.51	2.26	6.27	1.38	6.65	9.28	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.17	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.15	0.53	4.16	12.91	11.76	8.84	15.12	12.73	15.21	7.52	4.42	2.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.18	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.21	0.73	2.43	4.13	12.99	3.28	12.86	1.33	13.71	12.01	14.68	10.68	2.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.98	2.31
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.17	8.56	0.24	3.26	4.34	7.84	20.99	16.04	8.93	3.02	2.53	5.91	0.84	9.29	6.03
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67	2.57	1.05	2.96	2.96	7.15	26.02	18.59	19.16	1.81	0.76	1.05	0.00	2.48	12.77
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	3.03	3.45	1.18	4.29	21.93	13.19	12.69	13.78	1.01	0.84	0.00	2.69	11.93	9.50
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.87	0.68	5.78	9.86	18.88	5.10	0.68	9.01	19.05	1.36	0.17	0.00	0.51	26.19	0.85
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.57	21.47	0.00	0.00	0.52	1.57	39.27	32.98
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.75	0.00	3.28	0.00	1.64	26.23	3.28	27.87	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.95	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	60.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.00	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1993 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 44

Sovereign Local Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2021)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	64.55	16.09	7.68	2.93	2.32	1.07	0.40	1.43	0.00	0.52	0.00	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.53
AA+	0.19	5.24	19.48	6.93	11.61	17.04	7.12	13.30	5.24	9.74	1.31	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.37	0.00	0.56	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.94	0.00
AA	2.40	5.69	13.92	16.62	19.01	3.44	8.38	0.30	12.28	9.28	3.59	3.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.95	0.00
AA-	5.96	8.07	10.00	15.09	23.51	0.53	4.04	5.44	10.70	0.00	0.00	1.23	0.00	0.00	3.68	1.05	1.05	1.58	0.00	0.35	7.72	0.00
A+	6.17	3.81	23.62	13.12	2.10	8.53	16.80	7.22	0.39	4.46	5.64	2.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.91	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	4.88	9.15	6.25	10.06	12.04	5.49	3.66	2.90	4.88	4.27	1.68	7.47	0.61	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.89	14.79
A-	0.00	0.00	1.67	11.07	11.31	16.67	17.50	5.95	3.33	3.10	6.79	2.86	2.26	2.14	1.19	4.29	0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.17	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	3.27	1.38	4.91	19.25	13.46	3.52	15.09	15.47	6.29	9.31	5.03	1.64	0.00	1.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.66	2.18	8.96	20.10	44.55	5.81	1.94	0.00	10.17	0.73	2.91	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.47	0.00	0.00	6.78	3.27	3.50	20.79	6.31	4.21	23.36	4.44	9.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.29	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.25	7.54	11.31	16.23	2.30	15.41	11.80	4.43	3.44	2.95	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.34	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	5.78	12.87	2.61	2.99	18.47	16.79	8.96	9.51	12.87	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75	3.92	3.54
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.57	8.02	2.01	4.30	10.89	11.75	7.45	14.04	7.45	10.60	3.72	0.00	2.01	0.00	16.05	1.15
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.17	8.73	3.97	4.23	3.17	31.75	16.67	17.20	0.00	0.00	1.59	0.00	8.47	1.06
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.48	7.71	2.28	1.23	4.90	11.56	20.32	18.91	0.53	0.70	2.10	1.23	16.46	5.60
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.94	8.02	19.44	9.88	6.17	15.12	0.00	12.04	0.00	0.93	4.01	7.10	12.35	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.31	3.92	1.31	0.00	7.19	41.83	41.18
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.83	2.08	0.00	35.42	4.17	0.00	8.33	27.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.08	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	84.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1993 and 2021 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 45  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings One-Year Most Recent Transition Matrices (2021)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	16.67	83.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	8.33	83.33	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	85.71	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	83.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	84.62	15.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	72.73	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	84.62	15.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	75.00	8.33	0.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	85.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 46

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings Three-Year Most Recent Transition Matrices (2019-2021)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	14.29	71.43	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	12.50	87.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.50	50.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	60.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	57.14	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	28.57	28.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	66.67	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	50.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	70.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	66.67	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	33.33	33.33	5.56	5.56	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	36.36	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	36.36	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 47

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings 10-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2012-2021)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	68.75	18.75	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	33.33	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33
AA	0.00	20.00	40.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	11.11	33.33	33.33	11.11	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00	28.57	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	11.11	22.22	11.11	0.00	0.00	11.11	22.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	18.18	27.27	27.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	60.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	11.11	0.00	11.11	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.22	11.11
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	25.00	18.75	18.75	6.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	27.27	18.18	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	9.09
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	66.67	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 48  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings Original-To-Last Transition Matrix
(%)
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	50.00	20.00	10.00	5.00	5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	20.00	0.00	40.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00
A+	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	11.11	33.33	11.11	11.11	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	30.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	10.53	0.00	5.26	15.79	10.53	0.00	5.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	26.32	15.79
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	20.00	16.00	16.00	8.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.00	12.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	13.64	4.55	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	31.82	18.18
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	4.17	0.00	8.33	0.00	4.17	4.17	25.00	4.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	45.83	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	8.33	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	8.33
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Original-to-last transition rates compare the issuer rating from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 49  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings One-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2021)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	8.33	75.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	80.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	90.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	90.91	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	70.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	83.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	75.00	8.33	0.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	83.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 50

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings Three-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2019-2021)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	85.71	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	12.50	75.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	57.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	42.86	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	50.00	25.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	62.50	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	50.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	50.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	70.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	63.64	27.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	33.33	33.33	5.56	5.56	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	53.85	15.38	0.00	7.69	7.69	7.69	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 51

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings 10-Year Most Recent Transition Matrix (2012-2021)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	68.75	18.75	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	25.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00
AA	0.00	0.00	50.00	16.67	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	11.11	33.33	33.33	11.11	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.22	22.22	0.00	22.22	11.11	0.00	11.11	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	33.33	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	16.67	33.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	28.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	22.22	33.33	11.11	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	12.50	37.50	12.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	10.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.67	26.67	26.67	26.67	0.00	0.00	6.67	0.00	0.00	6.67
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	27.27	18.18	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	9.09
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 52  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings Original-To-Last Transition Matrix
(%)
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	48.00	12.00	12.00	8.00	4.00	4.00	0.00	0.00	8.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	0.00	33.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	42.86	14.29	28.57	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00
A+	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	9.09	0.00	0.00	18.18	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	25.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	25.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	42.86	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	10.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	25.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	13.64	18.18	9.09	13.64	9.09	0.00	4.55	0.00	4.55	18.18
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.53	21.05	10.53	0.00	10.53	0.00	0.00	21.05	21.05
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	8.33	0.00	33.33	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	8.33
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	14.29	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	14.29
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Original-to-last transition rates compare the issuer rating from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Cumulative default rates

Table 53

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18
A	0.00	0.02	0.45	0.94	1.45	1.98	2.55	3.14	3.76	4.40	5.09	5.82	6.31	6.83	7.58
BBB	0.00	0.45	0.91	1.37	1.86	2.38	2.83	3.13	3.46	3.81	4.20	4.62	5.42	6.32	6.85
BB	0.43	1.40	2.15	2.77	4.05	5.46	6.96	8.55	9.97	10.93	11.84	12.78	13.52	14.13	14.58
B	2.83	6.24	9.74	13.14	15.81	18.30	20.76	23.15	25.20	27.10	28.54	29.88	31.36	32.93	34.60
CCC/CC	33.35	42.86	47.83	49.72	52.64	58.04	62.86	64.93	64.93	66.11	69.06	70.53	71.12	71.12	71.12
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 54

Sovereign Local Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1993-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.55	1.06	1.61	2.21	2.87
A	0.00	0.02	0.42	0.89	1.38	1.90	2.45	3.03	3.63	4.49	5.17	5.91	6.72	7.61	8.57
BBB	0.00	0.40	0.70	0.97	1.25	1.56	2.19	2.61	3.00	3.07	3.07	3.07	3.07	3.07	3.07
BB	0.61	1.27	1.66	2.02	2.60	3.47	4.31	5.35	6.34	7.15	8.05	9.05	10.16	11.15	11.88
B	1.56	2.95	4.40	5.59	6.65	7.63	8.61	9.66	10.81	11.86	12.39	12.91	13.52	14.54	15.51
CCC/CC	10.45	13.63	16.06	18.90	24.59	31.35	34.62	36.97	36.97	38.33	41.73	41.73	41.73	41.73	41.73
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 55

Foreign Currency 'A' Static Pools And Default Rates (1992-2021)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1992	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1993	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1994	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1995	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1996	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1997	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1998	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1999	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11
1/1/2000	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	18.18	18.18
1/1/2001	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	16.67	16.67	16.67
1/1/2002	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/2003	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.88	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76
1/1/2004	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	15.00
1/1/2005	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
1/1/2006	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09
1/1/2007	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2008	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
1/1/2009	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
1/1/2010	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76
1/1/2011	21	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76
1/1/2012	15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2013	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2014	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2015	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2016	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2017	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2018	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2019	20	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	17	0.00	0.00
1/1/2021	15	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		0.00	0.00	0.23	0.72	1.23	1.76	2.33	2.92	3.53	4.18	4.85	5.58	6.37	6.80	7.74
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 56

Foreign Currency 'BBB' Static Pools And Default Rates (1992-2021)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1992	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1993	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67
1/1/1994	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/1995	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/1996	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1997	9	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11
1/1/1998	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	12.50
1/1/1999	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	12.50	12.50
1/1/2000	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2001	16	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2002	16	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2003	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2004	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2005	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69
1/1/2006	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	7.69
1/1/2007	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	7.69	7.69
1/1/2008	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14
1/1/2009	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88
1/1/2010	19	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	10.53	10.53	10.53	10.53
1/1/2011	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00
1/1/2012	25	0.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	8.00	8.00	8.00	8.00
1/1/2013	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2014	27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2015	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2016	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2017	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2018	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2019	25	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	28	0.00	0.00
1/1/2021	28	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		0.00	0.41	1.07	1.53	2.02	2.55	3.11	3.41	3.74	4.10	4.50	4.92	5.39	6.39	6.94
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 57

Foreign Currency 'BB' Static Pools And Default Rates (1992-2021)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1992	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1993	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1994	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33
1/1/1995	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1996	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00
1/1/1997	13	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	15.38	15.38	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77
1/1/1998	18	0.00	11.11	11.11	16.67	16.67	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22
1/1/1999	18	0.00	0.00	5.56	5.56	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11
1/1/2000	15	0.00	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67
1/1/2001	14	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/2002	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/2003	17	0.00	5.88	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	17.65
1/1/2004	17	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	11.76	11.76
1/1/2005	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26	5.26
1/1/2006	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00
1/1/2007	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	13.64	13.64	13.64	13.64	13.64
1/1/2008	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04
1/1/2009	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2010	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2011	23	0.00	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04
1/1/2012	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	4.55	9.09	9.09
1/1/2013	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.85	7.69	7.69	11.54	11.54
1/1/2014	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	8.33	8.33	12.50	12.50
1/1/2015	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00
1/1/2016	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76
1/1/2017	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2018	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2019	17	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	18	0.00	0.00
1/1/2021	17	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		0.38	1.37	1.98	2.61	3.94	5.34	6.82	8.63	10.01	10.89	11.53	12.21	12.96	13.77	14.22
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 58

Foreign Currency 'B' Static Pools And Default Rates (1995-2021)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1995	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1996	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00
1/1/1997	4	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1998	5	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00
1/1/1999	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2000	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	21.43	21.43	21.43	21.43	21.43	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2001	19	0.00	5.26	10.53	10.53	21.05	21.05	21.05	26.32	26.32	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58
1/1/2002	15	0.00	6.67	6.67	13.33	13.33	13.33	13.33	13.33	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	26.67	26.67
1/1/2003	16	12.50	12.50	12.50	18.75	18.75	18.75	18.75	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	31.25	31.25	31.25
1/1/2004	19	0.00	5.26	10.53	10.53	10.53	10.53	15.79	15.79	15.79	15.79	15.79	21.05	21.05	21.05	21.05
1/1/2005	21	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	14.29	14.29	19.05	19.05	19.05	23.81	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2006	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	17.39	17.39	21.74	26.09	26.09	26.09	34.78
1/1/2007	25	0.00	4.00	4.00	8.00	8.00	16.00	16.00	20.00	20.00	24.00	24.00	24.00	24.00	32.00	32.00
1/1/2008	29	6.90	6.90	10.34	10.34	20.69	20.69	24.14	24.14	27.59	27.59	27.59	27.59	34.48	34.48
1/1/2009	29	0.00	3.45	3.45	10.34	10.34	13.79	17.24	20.69	20.69	20.69	20.69	27.59	27.59
1/1/2010	28	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	10.71	10.71	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	21.43	21.43
1/1/2011	33	0.00	6.06	9.09	12.12	15.15	18.18	18.18	18.18	18.18	27.27	27.27
1/1/2012	33	6.06	9.09	12.12	15.15	18.18	21.21	21.21	21.21	30.30	30.30
1/1/2013	31	3.23	6.45	9.68	12.90	16.13	16.13	16.13	25.81	25.81
1/1/2014	33	0.00	3.03	9.09	15.15	15.15	15.15	24.24	24.24
1/1/2015	35	0.00	5.71	11.43	14.29	14.29	22.86	22.86
1/1/2016	39	5.13	10.26	12.82	12.82	20.51	20.51
1/1/2017	39	5.13	7.69	10.26	20.51	20.51
1/1/2018	36	0.00	2.78	16.67	16.67
1/1/2019	41	2.44	14.63	14.63
1/1/2020	39	7.69	7.69
1/1/2021	36	0.00
Cumulative default rate*		2.42	6.12	9.54	12.65	15.38	17.70	20.21	22.69	24.58	26.34	28.28	30.09	31.32	32.72	34.3
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 59

Foreign Currency 'CCC'/'CC' Static Pools And Default Rates (1999-2021)
(%)		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	No. of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1999	4	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00
1/1/2000	2	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2001	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2002	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2003	4	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2004	2	0.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2005	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2006	3	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2007	1	0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2008	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2009	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2010	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	100.00	100.00
1/1/2011	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2012	1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2013	2	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2014	1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2015	2	50.00	50.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2016	2	0.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2017	3	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2018	4	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/2019	1	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	5	60.00	60.00
1/1/2021	8	12.50
Cumulative default rate*		37.50	44.20	51.48	54.03	57.09	63.22	66.57	66.57	66.57	66.57	69.91	69.91	69.91	69.91	69.91
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 60

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.88
A+	0.00	0.00	0.39	1.38	2.46	2.65	2.65	3.65	4.56	4.56	4.56	4.56	4.56	5.54	6.73
A	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.77	1.40	2.58	3.90	4.76	5.70	7.17	8.67	9.51	10.45	10.96	10.96
A-	0.00	0.05	0.76	0.82	0.82	0.82	0.82	0.82	0.82	0.82	0.90	1.98	2.27	2.47	3.79
BBB+	0.00	0.31	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.44	1.92	3.54	5.28	7.15	8.85	8.85
BBB	0.00	0.58	1.30	1.99	1.99	1.99	1.99	2.31	3.31	3.31	3.31	3.31	4.40	4.78	4.78
BBB-	0.00	0.44	0.95	1.53	2.67	3.87	4.94	5.39	5.39	5.39	5.39	5.39	5.39	6.23	7.40
BB+	0.18	1.32	1.32	1.32	1.66	2.49	3.37	4.35	6.23	7.44	8.47	9.55	10.71	12.01	13.45
BB	0.10	0.69	1.29	1.92	2.29	2.86	3.63	4.31	4.31	4.31	4.46	5.44	6.50	7.06	7.06
BB-	0.88	2.06	3.47	4.54	7.37	10.00	12.68	15.62	18.16	19.96	21.59	22.37	22.37	22.37	22.37
B+	0.64	2.19	3.93	6.60	8.76	11.70	15.05	18.47	19.89	21.72	23.46	24.80	25.76	26.41	27.90
B	2.27	5.44	9.51	13.28	16.49	18.47	20.59	22.81	25.21	27.65	28.91	30.48	32.50	34.25	34.25
B-	7.30	14.27	19.81	23.90	26.58	29.17	30.57	31.24	34.06	35.18	36.37	37.32	38.82	41.49	45.38
CCC+	16.56	20.41	25.33	28.26	32.86	41.34	48.93	52.20	52.20	54.09	58.83	61.19	62.14	62.14	62.14
CCC	48.01	76.61	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40	84.40
CCC-	84.78	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83	97.83
CC	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment-grade	0.00	0.11	0.33	0.55	0.77	1.01	1.24	1.44	1.64	1.86	2.09	2.33	2.59	2.87	3.16
Speculative-grade	3.19	5.78	8.10	10.19	12.23	14.32	16.41	18.39	20.04	21.45	22.69	23.83	24.89	25.88	26.81
All rated	1.20	2.23	3.22	4.13	5.01	5.90	6.79	7.60	8.31	8.92	9.48	10.01	10.52	11.00	11.47
Default rates conditional on survival. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 61  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
AAA	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
AA+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
AA	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
AA-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
A+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
A	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
A-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
BBB+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
BBB	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3
BBB-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3
BB+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.8	0.9	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.2
BB	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.5
BB-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.5	1.5
B+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7
B	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.2	1.4	1.7	1.9	2.1	2.3	2.5	2.8	3.1	3.3	3.6	3.8	4.0	4.2
B-	0.3	0.9	1.4	2.0	2.5	3.2	3.9	4.6	5.3	5.9	6.6	7.3	7.9	8.4	9.0	9.7	10.4	11.0	11.5	12.1
CCC+	1.1	2.3	3.8	5.6	7.4	9.0	10.3	11.7	13.4	14.8	15.8	16.6	17.3	17.8	18.1	18.1	18.1	18.1	18.4	18.9
CCC	5.2	12.0	19.5	26.4	31.9	35.8	39.0	42.2	43.0	44.6	46.3	48.0	50.6	54.1	56.7	59.3	61.9	64.5	67.9	70.5
CCC-	19.6	32.6	45.7	54.3	58.7	65.2	69.6	73.9	78.3	80.4	82.6	84.8	87.0	89.1	91.3	93.5	95.7	97.8	97.8	97.8
CC	28.0	46.0	60.0	74.0	82.0	86.0	90.0	92.0	94.0	96.0	98.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Investment-grade	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Speculative-grade	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.2	1.4	1.7	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.7	2.9	3.2	3.4	3.7	3.9	4.1	4.3	4.5	4.7	5.0
All rated	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.9	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.9
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 62

Sovereign Local Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates With Rating Modifiers (1993-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.77	1.74
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.22	1.60	3.10	4.73	5.61	5.61
A+	0.00	0.00	0.30	1.03	1.81	1.95	1.95	2.61	3.67	4.42	4.42	4.42	4.42	4.42	5.90
A	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.85	1.55	2.91	4.46	5.49	6.22	7.17	8.12	8.12	8.12	8.12	8.12
A-	0.00	0.05	0.74	0.80	0.80	0.80	0.80	0.80	0.80	1.68	2.88	5.21	7.70	10.32	11.57
BBB+	0.00	0.26	0.37	0.37	0.37	0.37	0.37	0.52	1.41	1.57	1.57	1.57	1.57	1.57	1.57
BBB	0.00	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22
BBB-	0.00	0.69	1.43	2.23	3.09	4.04	6.10	7.28	7.28	7.28	7.28	7.28	7.28	7.28	7.28
BB+	0.18	1.10	1.10	1.10	1.31	2.18	2.25	2.33	3.30	4.32	5.43	6.66	8.07	9.68	11.49
BB	1.30	1.67	1.67	1.67	1.67	1.67	2.56	3.70	3.70	3.70	3.70	3.70	3.70	3.70	3.70
BB-	0.50	1.13	2.13	3.10	4.44	5.97	7.54	9.50	11.37	12.69	14.19	15.95	17.98	19.33	19.33
B+	0.50	1.45	1.64	1.64	2.38	2.99	3.36	3.36	3.67	4.71	4.90	6.40	7.87	8.84	10.13
B	1.09	2.05	3.78	5.75	7.14	8.54	10.00	12.11	13.34	13.34	13.53	13.53	13.78	14.44	15.47
B-	3.72	6.40	9.21	10.92	11.93	12.71	13.87	14.76	17.52	21.05	22.93	22.93	22.93	24.58	25.06
CCC+	3.10	5.31	9.03	13.35	21.88	31.51	36.02	39.26	39.26	41.28	46.34	46.34	46.34	46.34	46.34
CCC	22.71	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92	30.92
CCC-	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	8.57	N.A.	N.A.
CC	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47	31.47
Investment-grade	0.00	0.10	0.28	0.47	0.66	0.87	1.15	1.40	1.64	1.91	2.18	2.48	2.81	3.16	3.54
Speculative-grade	1.67	2.84	3.89	4.81	5.86	7.04	8.06	9.16	10.18	11.14	11.99	12.70	13.52	14.46	15.24
All rated	0.61	1.10	1.59	2.04	2.53	3.07	3.60	4.13	4.62	5.10	5.55	5.97	6.43	6.94	7.42
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available (there are no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 63

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Middle East And Africa (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	N.A.
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	1.56	3.35	5.31	7.00	8.85	10.89	13.17	15.72	18.54	21.27	23.75	25.65	27.18	29.35	32.02
CCC/CC	15.68	17.26	17.26	17.26	17.26	17.26	17.26	17.26	17.26	17.26	17.26	34.50	41.39	41.39	41.39
Investment-grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Speculative-grade	1.82	3.19	4.61	5.81	7.12	8.54	10.08	11.75	13.58	15.30	16.78	18.23	19.18	20.26	21.52
All rated	1.06	1.85	2.66	3.33	4.05	4.82	5.65	6.55	7.53	8.45	9.23	9.99	10.47	11.02	11.65
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available (there are no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 64

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Latin America (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.70	5.21
BBB	0.00	0.57	1.38	2.26	3.22	4.27	5.43	6.76	8.28	10.04	12.09	14.48	17.24	19.84	19.84
BB	0.25	1.07	2.51	4.14	7.52	11.19	15.07	18.58	21.42	23.00	24.83	26.91	28.51	29.77	30.68
B	6.77	14.98	23.53	31.48	36.39	40.93	44.70	48.68	52.12	55.13	56.54	57.70	59.37	61.06	63.58
CCC/CC	40.54	56.71	66.37	69.99	75.60	81.23	86.86	90.61	90.61	93.30	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment-grade	0.00	0.34	0.81	1.31	1.85	2.42	3.04	3.73	4.48	5.32	6.25	7.30	8.46	9.77	11.21
Speculative-grade	5.42	10.28	15.25	19.73	23.89	28.06	32.01	35.76	38.70	40.96	42.81	44.37	45.90	47.24	48.70
All rated	3.38	6.56	9.87	12.91	15.78	18.71	21.55	24.33	26.63	28.51	30.15	31.63	33.13	34.53	36.06
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 65

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Asia-Pacific (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	1.01	2.43	3.93	5.53	7.23	8.41	8.41	8.41	8.41	8.41	8.41	8.41	8.41	8.41
BB	0.00	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09
B	0.64	2.11	3.03	4.02	4.19	4.19	4.19	4.19	4.19	4.19	4.19	4.19	4.19	4.19	4.19
CCC/CC	61.55	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58	63.58
Investment-grade	0.00	0.20	0.47	0.75	1.05	1.35	1.56	1.56	1.56	1.56	1.56	1.56	1.56	1.56	1.56
Speculative-grade	1.85	2.72	3.22	3.74	3.83	3.83	3.83	3.83	3.83	3.83	3.83	3.83	3.83	3.83	3.83
All rated	0.66	1.10	1.45	1.82	2.04	2.24	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 66

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Central And Eastern Europe And CIS (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.31	1.09	1.29	1.29	1.29	1.29	1.29	2.16	3.42	4.82	5.33	5.33	5.33	5.33	5.33
B	0.18	0.58	1.85	3.24	4.76	5.57	6.34	6.81	6.81	6.81	8.44	11.13	14.11	16.53	16.53
CCC/CC	44.74	65.79	65.79	65.79	65.79	81.58	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment-grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Speculative-grade	0.87	1.79	2.39	2.91	3.46	4.06	4.72	5.43	6.20	7.05	7.98	9.04	10.24	11.23	11.23
All rated	0.40	0.82	1.10	1.34	1.59	1.86	2.14	2.44	2.77	3.12	3.50	3.92	4.38	4.76	4.76
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. CIS--Commonwealth of Independent States. N.A.--Not available (there are no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 67

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Eurozone (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.43
A	0.00	0.07	1.58	3.32	5.17	7.12	9.19	11.37	13.63	15.97	18.42	21.07	22.87	24.46	25.47
BBB	0.00	0.94	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	3.17	5.92	8.75
BB	2.87	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17	9.17
B	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
CCC/CC	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
Investment-grade	0.00	0.13	0.50	0.88	1.28	1.68	2.10	2.54	2.99	3.45	3.94	4.45	4.98	5.53	6.12
Speculative-grade	8.14	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20	12.20
All rated	0.42	0.76	1.11	1.47	1.84	2.23	2.63	3.05	3.49	3.95	4.42	4.92	5.44	5.98	6.55
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available (there are no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 68

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Emerging And Frontier Markets (1975-2021)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.95
BBB	0.00	0.39	0.93	1.51	2.12	2.77	3.34	3.71	4.11	4.55	5.02	5.54	6.10	6.60	6.60
BB	0.34	1.11	1.91	2.56	3.92	5.42	7.01	8.68	10.19	11.21	12.16	13.15	13.94	14.58	15.05
B	2.91	6.52	10.39	14.10	16.83	19.37	21.84	24.24	26.48	28.56	30.13	31.60	33.23	34.95	36.78
CCC/CC	36.06	47.74	53.92	56.33	60.35	67.80	74.24	76.96	76.96	78.60	82.72	84.77	85.60	85.60	85.60
Investment-grade	0.00	0.19	0.44	0.71	1.00	1.30	1.56	1.73	1.91	2.11	2.32	2.55	2.80	3.07	3.38
Speculative-grade	3.13	5.75	8.29	10.54	12.65	14.82	16.97	19.01	20.80	22.33	23.66	24.90	26.04	27.11	28.12
All rated	1.78	3.35	4.90	6.29	7.60	8.95	10.27	11.49	12.57	13.51	14.35	15.14	15.88	16.59	17.27
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

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Ratings Performance Analytics:	Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698; nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
	Evan M Gunter, New York + 1 (212) 438 6412; evan.gunter@spglobal.com
	Vincent R Conti, Singapore + 65 6216 1188; vincent.conti@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:	Tanya Dias, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai