Key Takeaways
- Canadian credit card ABS new issuance volume declined 71% year over year to C$1.33 billion in first-quarter 2020, as asset-backed securities markets shuttered on expectations of negative impact on consumers due to COVID-19.
- The pandemic's impact on credit card receivables performance will depend on the level of consumer indebtedness, the length of the economic lockdown, the nature of forbearance offerings and fiscal stimulus programs, and the credit quality strength of Canadian credit card accounts.
- As of March 2020, our Canadian Credit Card Quality Index does not point to early performance pressure, though it is still too early to draw any conclusions from this.
COVID-19 and volatility in the oil market are headwinds that negatively affected Canadian credit card ABS issuance through first-quarter 2020. Issuance declined approximately 71% in the quarter, to C$1.33 billion, compared with C$4.64 billion in first-quarter 2019. U.S. cross-border transactions accounted for all of the issuance through March 2020, which occurred early in the quarter, prior to the ABS market disruption.
The resumption of issuance to at least refinance maturing credit card ABS will depend on market conditions. Pre COVID-19 (Feb. 21, 2020) five-year 'AAA' credit card ABS spreads were 28 basis points (bps) to swaps, widening out to 336 bps at March 20, and have since come back in to 58 bps as of May 20.
Improving market conditions since May and a risk premia decline could see Canadian credit card ABS issuers resume issuance (see charts 1 and 2).
Chart 1
Chart 2
Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Canadian Credit Card ABS
Consistent with the global economy, the economic crisis in Canada is, in large part, a result of the needed containment measures to slow the spread of COVID-19. S&P Global Ratings now views some form of physical distancing will be in effect until a vaccine is available, sometime in early- to mid-2021. This should allow for step-wise relaxing of containment measures with the greatest economic disruption focused in second-quarter 2020. (See "Economic Research: COVID-19 Causes More Severe Disruption For Canada’s Economy," April 17, 2020.)
Levels of unemployment are significantly elevated, but unlike previous spikes, the voluntary nature of the economic shutdown is driving this rapid and material unemployment growth. Consequently, large fiscal stimulus measures continue to be enacted, which should mitigate the negative impact on consumers in the short term. Nevertheless, for certain economic strata, the dislocation could prove difficult.
Sponsor-originators
In response to the emerging dislocation, Canadian banks enacted their business continuity plans, which included working from home and social distancing at servicing centers. We do not presently believe there is a noticeable effect on institutions' ability to continue servicing credit card portfolios, including collections. In terms of the greater financial impact on the Canadian banks, we believe that the banks are entering this recession from a position of general strength in terms of liquidity, capital adequacy, and strong credit metrics relative to international peers. Additionally, lenders are expected to increase their provisions for credit loss driven by the weaker macroeconomic outlook (and potential credit implications) rather than borrower-specific issues. The asset bases of these financial institutions are large and diversified, with only 3% of their total loan exposure coming from credit cards as of first-quarter 2020 (see "Canadian Banks Are Set To Face COVID-19 Related Headwinds From A Position Of Strength," April 16, 2020).
Canadian banks are offering varying forbearance options that include a form of payment deferral or interest reduction for a period of one to three months, granted on a case-by-case basis. If the cardholder qualifies for or had existing cheaper alternative means of financing, such as a line of credit, lenders may direct the cardholder to this solution rather than forbearance. Overall, the general expectation is that lenders will work with their cardholders on a case-by-case basis to manage the COVID-19 fallout and the impact on receivables performance.
Receivables
The likelihood of obligors not satisfying their credit card payment obligations will depend on their income curtailment, credit card issuers' forbearance considerations, and the government's stimulus measures, all of which will lessen the burden faced by many cardholders and, as a result, mitigate against an immediate increase in delinquencies and losses. As of May 8, 2020, the Canadian Banker Association reported that approximately 350,000 credit card deferral requests are in process or have been completed across Canada's largest banks. Heavily indebted cardholders with weak credit scores, limited savings, and no cheaper alternative financing options will be the most affected.
Canadian credit cards are conservatively underwritten and the securitized receivables have strong credit metrics: approximately 84% are of accounts aged at least five years, which leads to stable payments, and approximately 32% comprise accounts that can be classified as "super prime," while about 83% are from accounts with credit scores of 660 and above. The receivables are also geographically diverse.
Nevertheless, an extended lockdown followed by a slower recovery will affect trusts' performance parameters: yield, payment rate, loss (charge-off) rate, and receivables balance.
With respect to trusts' receivables, our expectation for the duration of the lockdown is for a shift in cardholders' spending patterns. We expect purchases that would have maximized rewards to decline substantially, which can affect receivables balances. Nevertheless, under the program's documents, there is a stipulated minimum amount of receivables to support the senior-subordination structure and enhancement requirements for outstanding ABS. As such, if receivables were reduced due to a declining balance (e.g., less spending and a lower credit balance), the seller is required to add new receivables to maintain the minimum required receivable amount to support the ABS.
The impact of payment deferral on receivables performance, all else equal, will likely result in a decline in yield and payment rate over the immediate term of the forbearance. The portfolio effect, however, will depend on the proportion of accounts under forbearance. A larger portion will have a more noticeable impact. Similarly, the type of account holder can influence performance. If the account holder is a "revolver" (one who makes minimum monthly payments), then the impact of forbearance will be more noticeable on yield than payment rate, since a greater amount of minimum payment consists of the interest charge. Similarly, if the account holder is a "transactor" (one who pays off the monthly balance completely and does not pay an interest charge), then a large percentage of such account holders under forbearance can result in a decline in the payment rate. The distribution of accounts between minimum payors and full payors will influence the direction and magnitude of the impact on performance variables. If there is also an increase in the ratio of cardholders making minimum payments due to COVID-19 hardship, this could increase yield and lower the payment rate, all things equal. Generally, forbearances are not classified as delinquent and, as such, we would not expect an immediate increase in delinquencies and charge-offs (losses) over the forbearance period. A declining receivable balance over this period, due to the denominator effect, also influences performance variables.
In the short term, we expect some variability in receivables performance and, over the longer term, deterioration if the economy remains closed and the recovery is slow.
We believe that our base-case and stressed performance variables for rated credit card trusts continue to be adequate at this time (see "Assessing The Credit Effects Of COVID-19 On U.S. And Canadian Credit Card ABS," March 25, 2020, and "2019 U.S. And Canadian Credit Card ABS Review," Jan. 14, 2019).
S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic and credit implications. We believe the measures adopted to contain COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession (see our macroeconomic and credit updates here: www.spglobal.com/ratings). As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates accordingly.
Credit Card Receivables Performance: Early Indicators
Given that the COVID-19 dislocation started to materialize around mid-March, we believe that data through March 2020 do not reflect the full impact of the pandemic fallout, forbearance options, and government stimulus programs.
The 30-plus-day delinquency rate of 2.39% and the charge-off rate of 3.44% as of March 2020 moderately increased from 2.16% and 3.13%, respectively, at February 2020. Yield decreased to 22.35%, from 23.32% at February 2020, while the payment rate for the same period increased to 43.65% from 39.61%. The aggregate receivables balance decreased $2.75 billion, or 5.4%, in the same period, which could explain some of the performance variable movements.
Over the three-month period ended March 2020, the average yield decreased by 80 bps to 22.9%, from 23.7% for three months ended December 2019. For the same period, the payment rate decreased to 42.8% from 47.2%, although this is in line with the three-month average of 42.0% at March 2019. The charge-off (loss) rate increased to 3.2%, from 3.1% in fourth-quarter 2019 and 3.0% in first-quarter 2019. The average receivables balance during the three months ended March 2020 was $49.6 billion, down from $52.1 billion in fourth-quarter 2019 and $50.1 billion in first-quarter 2019.
We anticipate unemployment to increase significantly, as already demonstrated in more recent data. Canadian credit card receivables have historically performed relatively well during previous market disruptions. Focusing on the period since the most recent recession, all S&P Global Ratings-rated Canadian credit card trusts have loss rates trending lower than the Canadian unemployment level--in some cases significantly lower. For those trusts created in the last five years, loss rates have consistently maintained a wide margin to higher levels of unemployment. The payment rate through the last recession, outside of short-term disruptions, remained steady. Yield has been consistent over time and rated trusts have trended in line with the industry. Our base-case and stressed performance variables for the trusts we rate have been recalibrated to the recent recession.
Chart 3a
Chart 3b
Chart 3c
Canadian CCQI Highlights
The Canadian CCQI tracks the performance of approximately C$47.8 billion in credit card receivables from eight major Canadian trusts that issue credit card ABS.
We observed the following performance trends in the Canadian CCQI as of first-quarter 2020 (see table 1 and charts 4-5):
- The three-month average principal receivables totaled C$49.6 billion, down 1.0% year over year and 4.8% from fourth-quarter 2019.
- The three-month average charge-off rate was 3.2%, up 7.8% year over year and 3.9% from fourth-quarter 2019.
- The three-month average 30-plus-day delinquency rate was 2.2%, up 6.7% year over year and 11.0% from fourth-quarter 2019.
- The three-month average total payment rate was 42.8%, up 1.8% year over year and down 9.2% from fourth-quarter 2019.
- The three-month average yield was 22.9%, down 1.4% year over year and 3.2% from fourth-quarter 2019.
- The three-month average excess spread was 16.1%, down 3.9% year over year and down 6.1 from fourth-quarter 2019.
Table 1
| S&P Global Ratings' Canadian CCQI Three-Month Average Trends | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Performance period | Q1 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q4 2019 | Q1 2020 | |||||||
| Outstandings (bil. C$) | 49.2 | 50.1 | 52.0 | 52.1 | 49.6 | |||||||
| Yield (%) | 23.2 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 22.9 | |||||||
| Payment rate (%) | 43.1 | 42.0 | 46.7 | 47.2 | 42.8 | |||||||
| Charge-offs (%) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | |||||||
| Delinquencies (%) | ||||||||||||
| 30-plus-day | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | |||||||
| 60-plus-day | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |||||||
| 90-plus-day | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | |||||||
| Base rate (%) | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | |||||||
| Excess spread rate(%) | 17.1 | 16.8 | 17.0 | 17.2 | 16.1 | |||||||
| CCQI--Credit Card Quality Index. | ||||||||||||
Chart 4
Chart 5
Issuers Versus The Index
Table 2a
| Issuers Versus The Index As Of December 2019 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issuer | Seller | Outstanding amount (mil. C$) | Yield (%) | Charge-offs (%) | Base rate (%) | Excess spread rate (%) | Payment rate (%) | 30-plus-day delinquency rate (%) | 60-plus-day delinquency rate (%) | 90-plus-day delinquency rate (%) | ||||||||||||
| Canadian CCQI | N/A | 52,713 | 23.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 17.3 | 50.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||
| CARDS II Trust(i) | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | 12,173(ii) | 22.2(ii) | 3.0(ii) | 4.2(iii) | 15.0(iii) | 42.3(ii) | 2.3(iii) | 1.3(iii) | 0.8(ii) | ||||||||||||
| Golden Credit Card Trust | Royal Bank of Canada | 10,851 | 24.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 20.1 | 56.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||
| Master Credit Card Trust II(i) | Bank of Montreal | 8,085(ii) | 24.8(ii) | 3.0(ii) | 2.2(iii) | 19.6(iii) | 53.4(ii) | 2.3(iii) | 1.4(iii) | 0.9(ii) | ||||||||||||
| Glacier Credit Card Trust | Canadian Tire Bank | 3,814 | 20.7 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 10.7 | 28.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||
| Eagle Credit Card Trust(i) | President's Choice Bank | 2,332(ii) | 25.1(ii) | 3.5(ii) | 4.7(iii) | 16.9(iii) | 64.8(ii) | 1.5(iii) | 0.9(iii) | 0.6(ii) | ||||||||||||
| Canadian Credit Card Trust II(i) | National Bank of Canada | 1,788(ii) | 25.9(ii) | 4.0(ii) | 1.2(iii) | 20.7(iii) | 57.4(ii) | 1.7(iii) | 1.1(iii) | 0.7(ii) | ||||||||||||
| Evergreen Credit Card Trust | The Toronto-Dominion Bank | 8,645 | 23.6 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 16.9 | 52.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | ||||||||||||
| Trillium Credit Card Trust II | The Bank of Nova Scotia | 5,027 | 25.9 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 18.3 | 52.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||
| (i)S&P Global Ratings does not publicly rate the credit card asset-backed securities issued by this trust. (ii)As reported in the issuer's regulatory filing. (iii)Calculated by S&P Global Ratings using information obtained from the issuer's regulatory filings. Sources: S&P Global Ratings and issuer regulatory filings. N/A--Not applicable. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 2b
| Issuers Versus The Index As Of March 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issuer | Seller | Outstanding amount (mil. C$) | Yield (%) | Charge-offs (%) | Base rate (%) | Excess spread rate (%) | Payment rate (%) | 30-plus-day delinquency rate (%) | 60-plus-day delinquency rate (%) | 90-plus-day delinquency rate (%) | ||||||||||||
| Canadian CCQI | N/A | 47,751 | 22.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 15.6 | 43.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||
| CARDS II Trust(i) | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | 11,357(ii) | 20.6(ii) | 3.5(ii) | 3.3(iii) | 13.8(iii) | 37.5(ii) | 2.8(iii) | 1.5(iii) | 0.9(ii) | ||||||||||||
| Golden Credit Card Trust | Royal Bank of Canada | 9,499 | 22.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 17.6 | 49.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||
| Master Credit Card Trust II(i) | Bank of Montreal | 7,326(ii) | 24.9(ii) | 3.9(ii) | 2.3(iii) | 18.7(iii) | 46.3(ii) | 2.8(iii) | 1.6(iii) | 1.0(ii) | ||||||||||||
| Glacier Credit Card Trust | Canadian Tire Bank | 3,511 | 20.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 10.4 | 25.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||
| Eagle Credit Card Trust(i) | President's Choice Bank | 2,330(ii) | 23.7(ii) | 3.0(ii) | 5.0(iii) | 15.7(iii) | 57.2(ii) | 1.7(iii) | 1.0(iii) | 0.6(ii) | ||||||||||||
| Canadian Credit Card Trust II(i) | National Bank of Canada | 1,552(ii) | 26.5(ii) | 4.1(ii) | 3.8(iii) | 18.7(iii) | 51.9(ii) | 1.8(iii) | 1.1(iii) | 0.8(ii) | ||||||||||||
| Evergreen Credit Card Trust | The Toronto-Dominion Bank | 7,753 | 21.6 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 14.4 | 45.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||
| Trillium Credit Card Trust II | The Bank of Nova Scotia | 4,423 | 22.8 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 15.4 | 44.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||
| (i)S&P Global Ratings does not publicly rate the credit card asset-backed securities issued by this trust. (ii)As reported in the issuer's regulatory filing. (iii)Calculated by S&P Global Ratings using information obtained from the issuer's regulatory filings. Sources: S&P Global Ratings and issuer regulatory filings. N/A--Not applicable. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Appendix: CCQI Performance Variables
The CCQI is a monthly performance index that aggregates performance information across credit card ABS transactions in the following key risk areas: receivables outstanding, yield, payment rate, charge-off rate, delinquencies, base rate, and excess spread rate.
We determine each master trust's weighting by dividing its outstanding eligible principal receivables by the total outstanding eligible principal receivables for all trusts included in the index. We then determine the CCQI weighted average performance variables by adding the result of each master trust's variables multiplied by each master trust's respective weighting.
Receivables outstanding
The aggregate outstanding eligible principal receivables of credit card accounts backing each master trust at the end of the collection period.
Yield
The weighted average total trust income for the collection period, as a percentage of eligible principal receivables (annualized).
Total payment rate
The weighted average total monthly collections (obligor principal and finance charge payments), as a percentage of total receivables outstanding.
Charge-off rate
The weighted average losses on principal receivables for the collection period, as a percentage of eligible principal receivables (annualized).
Delinquencies
The weighted average past-due amount for the collection period, as a percentage of the current month's eligible principal receivables.
Base rate
The weighted average cost of funding (the sum of the certificate rate on a securitization and the corresponding transaction servicing fee) for the collection period. For those issuers with ABS not rated by S&P Global Ratings, the base rate is calculated as the difference between the reported yield and charge-off rate for the issuer, less the weighted average excess spread of the issuer based on the outstanding principal balance of each series.
Excess spread rate
The weighted average surplus of cash inflow for the collection period (yield minus charge-offs minus the base rate). For those issuers with ABS not rated by S&P Global Ratings, the excess spread rate is calculated as the weighted average of each series based on the outstanding principal balance.
Related Criteria
- Incorporating Sovereign Risk In Rating Structured Finance Securities: Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 30, 2019
- U.S. Credit Card Securitizations: Methodology And Assumptions, Aug. 24, 2017
- Structured Finance: Asset Isolation And Special-Purpose Entity Methodology, March 29, 2017
- Methodology: Criteria For Global Structured Finance Transactions Subject To A Change In Payment Priorities Or Sale Of Collateral Upon A Nonmonetary EOD, March 2, 2015
- Global Derivative Agreement Criteria, June 24, 2013
- Criteria Methodology Applied To Fees, Expenses, And Indemnifications, July 12, 2012
- Global Investment Criteria For Temporary Investments In Transaction Accounts, May 31, 2012
- General Methodology And Assumptions For Rating Canadian Credit Card ABS, March 22, 2012
- General Criteria: Credit Stability Criteria, May 3, 2010
- Criteria - Structured Finance - General: Methodology For Servicer Risk Assessment, May 28, 2009
Related Research
- COVID-19 Activity In Global Structured Finance For The Week Ending May 15, 2020, May 20, 2020
- COVID-19 Is Testing The Resilience Of Global Structured Finance, May 18, 2020
- Credit Conditions North America: Pressures Persist, Risks Resound, April 23, 2020
- COVID-19 Causes More Severe Disruption For Canada's Economy, April 17, 2020
- COVID-19 Deals A Larger, Longer Hit to Global GDP, April 16, 2020
- Canadian Banks Are Set To Face COVID-19 Related Headwinds From A Position Of Strength, April 16, 2020
- Assessing The Credit Effects Of COVID-19 On U.S. And Canadian Credit Card ABS, March 25, 2020
- Canadian Credit Card Quality Index: Issuance Volume Declined Approximately 39% In 2019, Feb. 27, 2020
- Global Structured Finance Outlook 2020: Another $1 Trillion-Plus Year On Tap, Jan. 6, 2020
- 2019 U.S. And Canadian Credit Card ABS Review, Jan. 14, 2019
- Global Structured Finance Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis 2016: The Effects Of The Top Five Macroeconomic Factors, Dec. 16, 2016
This report does not constitute a rating action.
| Primary Credit Analyst: | Sanjay Narine, CFA, Toronto + 1 (416) 507 2548; sanjay.narine@spglobal.com |
| Secondary Contact: | Jonathan Zimmerman, New York (1) 212-438-1002; jonathan.zimmerman@spglobal.com |
| Analytical Managers: | Kate R Scanlin, New York (1) 212-438-2002; kate.scanlin@spglobal.com |
| Frank J Trick, New York (1) 212-438-1108; frank.trick@spglobal.com |
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