Key Takeaways
- We project that the sovereigns we rate will borrow an equivalent of $8.1 trillion from long-term commercial sources in 2020. This is an increase of about 20% compared to 2015.
- The U.S. and Japan will remain by far the largest borrowers globally, accounting for almost 60% of total global sovereign borrowing in 2020.
- We forecast that the commercial debt stock of the sovereigns we rate will rise by 5% year on year to reach an equivalent of $53 trillion by the end of 2020. Between 2015 and 2020 debt stock will have risen by 30%.
- Sovereign debt profiles vary significantly, with the highest share of fixed-interest and local currency debt in total debt in developed EMEA and APAC.
S&P Global Ratings' annual survey of global sovereign debt and borrowing compiles data pertaining to all rated sovereigns. We project that the sovereigns we rate will borrow an equivalent of $8.1 trillion from long-term commercial sources in 2020--approximately 2% higher than in 2019 and 20% higher than five years ago. We forecast that gross long-term commercial borrowing will stay at around 9% of rated sovereigns' GDP in 2020. (For a full list of the sovereigns we rate and their ratings, see "Sovereign Ratings List," published monthly, on RatingsDirect.)
About 70%, or $5.8 trillion, of sovereigns' gross borrowing will be to refinance maturing long-term debt, resulting in an estimated net borrowing requirement of about $2.3 trillion, or 2.6% of the GDP of rated sovereigns (see table 1). The increase reflects the higher borrowing needs of the largest sovereign issuers as their fiscal stance loosens in 2020 amid the fragile global economic outlook and past pro-cyclical fiscal decisions. Supportive credit and financing conditions are also driving higher borrowing, as the monetary stance of major central banks remains highly accommodative, a trend which is unlikely to change in 2020 (see "Global Sovereign Rating Trends 2020: Sovereign Debt Buildup Continues," published Jan. 29, 2020). Furthermore, all numbers presented here have been converted into U.S. dollars.
By end-2020 we project that the commercial debt stock of all sovereigns we rate will rise by 5% to reach a record of $53 trillion compared to 2019, and by 30% compared to 2015. At the same time, outstanding short-term commercial debt will remain almost unchanged at $5.5 trillion (about 10% of total commercial debt stock) compared to 2019.
Table 1
Sovereign Commercial Issuance And Debt* | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020f | |||||||||
(Bil. $) | ||||||||||||||
Gross long-term commercial borrowing | 6,716 | 7,120 | 7,294 | 7,440 | 7,952 | 8,130 | ||||||||
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt | 4,137 | 5,266 | 5,456 | 5,522 | 5,665 | 5,853 | ||||||||
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing | 2,398 | 1,855 | 1,838 | 1,918 | 2,287 | 2,277 | ||||||||
Total commercial debt stock (year end) | 40,720 | 42,724 | 46,465 | 48,080 | 50,363 | 52,969 | ||||||||
Of which short-term debt | 3,181 | 4,538 | 4,694 | 5,134 | 5,233 | 5,499 | ||||||||
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year | 37,539 | 38,186 | 41,771 | 42,946 | 45,130 | 47,470 | ||||||||
(% GDP) | ||||||||||||||
Gross long-term commercial borrowing | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 9.2 | ||||||||
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt | 5.7 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.6 | ||||||||
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | ||||||||
Total commecial debt stock (year end) | 55.8 | 57.8 | 59.1 | 57.5 | 59.4 | 60.1 | ||||||||
Of which short-term debt | 4.4 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | ||||||||
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year | 51.5 | 51.6 | 53.1 | 51.4 | 53.2 | 53.9 | ||||||||
*Data excludes Venezuela due to distortions caused by hyper-inflation and multiple exchange rates. f--Forecast. |
Chart 1
Breakdown By Rating Category
Investment-grade sovereign borrowings will account for the overwhelming majority of total borrowings in 2020. We project that, during 2020, the share of commercial sovereign debt rated 'AAA' (foreign currency rating) will account for a modest 6.5% of total estimated commercial debt stock and 4.8% of total long-term commercial borrowing. Similar to last year, over 47% of all commercial borrowing and total debt stock will fall into the 'AA' category, as three of the top six sovereign debtors fall into this rating category (the U.S., the U.K., and France).
The share of the debt stock and long-term commercial borrowing by sovereign issuers rated in the 'BB' category or below (speculative grade) accounts for around 6% of the global total (see table 2 and chart 2). Brazil, accounting for around $250 billion, or 3%, of global sovereign commercial borrowing is by far the largest speculative-grade borrower this year. Among all sovereign borrowers it ranks at No. 5 globally, and is the country for which borrowings will hike the most in nominal terms in 2020, increasing by $75 billion compared to 2019. Other big speculative-grade sovereign borrowers, which will push into the top 20 sovereigns by absolute borrowing volumes in 2020 include Turkey, Egypt, and Nigeria, accounting for a combined 2% of the global total.
Chart 2
The stock of sovereign debt across all rating categories has steadily increased over the past decade, whereas debt profiles vary significantly by region. Excluding the G-7 countries (which due to their size distort average trends), almost 90% of Asia-Pacific and developed Europe Middle East and Africa (EMEA) debt stock is in local currency and at fixed interest rates (see chart 3). By contrast, between 30% and 40% of emerging EMEA and Latin America's debt stock is denominated in foreign currency, while 70% and 50%, respectively, has been issued at fixed interest rates. Even though our rating analysis captures a complexity of factors, these differences in debt profiles partially explain why sovereign ratings in emerging EMEA and Latin American countries are lower.
Chart 3
Interestingly, as far as the currency composition of sovereign debt is concerned, we note a pronounced upward trend in the share of foreign currency in total debt stock in 'B' rated sovereigns, which is not surprising given that these economies tend to have shallow local currency debt markets (see chart 4). Less intuitively, however, we have also seen a rise in the 'BBB' rated sovereigns. This is driven by the exclusion from this group of Spain and Poland, which both experienced rating upgrades to the 'A' category in 2018, and which issue in local currency (see chart 3). On the other hand, the decrease in the share of foreign currency debt stock in the 'BB' category is explained by the strong presence of Brazil, which issues mostly in local currency.
Chart 4
Rollover risks generally coincide with low ratings
High rollover needs are frequently a reflection of financial stress, where longer-term funding is no longer available and public debt piles up. According to our calculations, Angola will roll over about 75% of its total debt in 2020, followed by Papua New Guinea and Egypt, at around 40% each (see chart 5). The very high rollover ratios for these countries is a function of an elevated share of short-term debt--which constitutes about 60% of total debt for Angola and 35% for Papua New Guinea and Egypt. The top three sovereigns by rollover needs are all rated in the 'B' category, highlighting this vulnerability.
As a share of GDP, the highest debt service is found in Angola, Egypt, Bahrain, and Japan. Japan will continue to face a very high debt rollover ratio (including short-term debt) this year, reaching 56% of GDP. Its high rollover ratio is a reflection of the highest general government debt-to-GDP ratio among all rated sovereigns, at 210% in 2020 (see the quarterly "Sovereign Risk Indicators," an interactive version of which is at http://spratings.com/sri). Furthermore, at about 13%, Japan's share of short-term debt in its total debt is relatively elevated. The majority of advanced economies have a share of between 5% and 10% of the total.
The debt rollover ratios for infrequent issuers with small but lumpy debt obligations can be very low if little or no debt matures in a given year and if they do not have a significant amount of short-term debt. Sovereigns with higher proportions of official debt tend to have lower rollover ratios because official debt typically has longer maturities than commercial debt.
Chart 5
Chart 6
Breakdown By Sovereigns
The U.S. and Japan are by far the largest sovereign issuers (see chart 1 and 6). We estimate they will account for almost 60% of total global sovereign borrowing in 2020, with the U.S. alone accounting for over one-third of the global total. They are followed by China, which we forecast will issue around $636 billion in 2020, and Italy, Brazil, and France, each of which we believe will raise about $250 billion in 2020. These sovereigns together will account for around 17% of the global total, slightly below Japan by itself (see table 2). The G-7 group of nations account for approximately 70% of global borrowing and debt.
Breakdown By Region
In a breakdown by region, North American sovereigns (mostly the U.S.) are expected to issue $3.1 trillion (about 38% of the global total), followed by Asia-Pacific sovereigns (36%), and developed EMEA (15%). Emerging EMEA and Latin America will account for only 6% and 5% of the total, respectively (see chart 7).
Chart 7
Inflation-indexed borrowings
About one-third (41) of rated sovereign issuers engage in inflation-indexed forms of borrowing (see chart 8). These instruments are more popular among nations that have experienced bouts of high inflation or hyperinflation, especially Latin America, even if those episodes lie decades in the past. Israel has the highest share of indexed bonds, where about one-half of the debt is inflation-linked. This in particular reflects "designated bonds", non-tradeable bonds issued to domestic pension funds at higher yields. Countries with the next-highest shares of indexed bonds are Chile (40%), Uruguay (35%), the U.K. (34%), and Iceland (33%). The high share of inflation-indexed bonds in the U.K. is due to the stable demand from the large pension sector hedging its long-term liabilities.
Chart 8
Methodology
Estimates in this report do not take into account sovereigns not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Since few sizable sovereigns remain unrated, however, we see our data as a reliable reflection of global developments in sovereign debt and borrowing. Our estimates focus on debt issued by a central government in its own name. We exclude local government and social security debt, as well as debt issued by other public bodies and government-guaranteed obligations. In terms of commercial debt instruments, our estimates for long-term borrowing include bonds with maturities of more than one year, issued either on publicly listed markets or sold as private placements, as well as commercial bank loans. We do not include government debt that some central banks may issue for monetary policy purposes. All reported forecast figures are our own estimates and do not necessarily reflect the issuers' projections. Our estimates are informed by our expectations regarding central government deficits, our assessment of governments' potential extra budgetary funding needs, and our estimates of debt maturities in 2020. Estimates that we express in U.S. dollars are subject to exchange-rate variations.
This global report summarizes a series of simultaneously released regional sovereign borrowing and debt reports, which we list in the "Related Research" section below. We have produced detailed reports for developed EMEA, emerging EMEA, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America.
Table 2
Gross Commercial Long-Term Borrowing | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bil. $ | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019e | 2020f | 2020 (% of total) | ||||||||
Abu Dhabi |
5.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Albania |
0.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Andorra |
0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Angola |
10.2 | 23.0 | 25.6 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Argentina |
52.4 | 68.0 | 98.3 | 76.6 | 53.5 | 0.7 | ||||||||
Aruba |
0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Australia |
75.0 | 61.1 | 47.2 | 41.1 | 32.6 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Austria |
24.7 | 27.9 | 21.4 | 22.8 | 21.9 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Azerbaijan |
0.1 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bahamas |
0.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bahrain |
4.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bangladesh |
8.0 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Barbados |
0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Belarus |
1.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Belgium |
46.9 | 41.6 | 40.3 | 33.9 | 33.5 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Belize |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Benin |
N.A. | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bermuda |
0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bolivia |
0.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Botswana |
0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Brazil |
173.5 | 213.2 | 170.0 | 178.5 | 253.5 | 3.1 | ||||||||
Bulgaria |
2.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Burkina Faso |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Cameroon |
0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Canada |
104.9 | 107.1 | 111.9 | 80.7 | 100.6 | 1.2 | ||||||||
Cape Verde |
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Chile |
9.7 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 0.1 | ||||||||
China |
460.1 | 590.7 | 556.9 | 599.3 | 636.0 | 7.8 | ||||||||
Colombia |
14.3 | 17.3 | 15.1 | 14.2 | 16.6 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Congo-Brazzaville |
0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Cook Islands |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Costa Rica |
6.7 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Croatia |
2.6 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Curacao |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Cyprus |
1.7 | 1.4 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Czech Republic |
8.7 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Denmark |
12.1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 14.1 | 11.2 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Dominican Republic |
3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
DR Congo |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Ecuador |
11.6 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Egypt |
93.3 | 33.6 | 38.1 | 45.2 | 45.7 | 0.6 | ||||||||
El Salvador |
0.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Estonia |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Ethiopia |
3.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Fiji |
1.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Finland |
15.4 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 14.0 | 0.2 | ||||||||
France |
207.0 | 211.3 | 230.3 | 224.1 | 229.1 | 2.8 | ||||||||
Georgia |
0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Germany |
177.1 | 176.2 | 171.2 | 178.1 | 173.2 | 2.1 | ||||||||
Ghana |
4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Greece |
0.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 14.4 | 8.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Guatemala |
2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Guernsey |
0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Honduras |
0.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Hong Kong |
3.7 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Hungary |
11.6 | 17.0 | 17.9 | 26.7 | 18.3 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Iceland |
0.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
India |
107.0 | 86.7 | 77.6 | 124.0 | 128.2 | 1.6 | ||||||||
Indonesia |
31.0 | 58.1 | 49.6 | 57.3 | 59.0 | 0.7 | ||||||||
Iraq |
13.6 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 11.7 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Ireland |
9.4 | 19.2 | 20.8 | 16.8 | 13.4 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Israel |
25.9 | 28.5 | 27.9 | 34.7 | 33.4 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Italy |
283.1 | 311.2 | 294.5 | 283.9 | 276.0 | 3.4 | ||||||||
Jamaica |
0.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Japan |
1,918.4 | 1,755.1 | 1,693.5 | 1,773.0 | 1,756.4 | 21.6 | ||||||||
Jersey |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Jordan |
4.1 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Kazakhstan |
0.5 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Kenya |
3.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Korea |
87.1 | 89.2 | 88.5 | 87.4 | 112.0 | 1.4 | ||||||||
Kuwait |
8.1 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Latvia |
1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Lebanon |
13.0 | 15.7 | 18.6 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Liechtenstein |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Lithuania |
1.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Luxembourg |
0.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Malaysia |
22.3 | 26.5 | 28.6 | 29.8 | 30.2 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Malta |
0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Mexico |
52.2 | 50.1 | 51.6 | 66.4 | 57.4 | 0.7 | ||||||||
Mongolia |
0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Montenegro |
0.5 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Montserrat |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Morocco |
10.7 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Mozambique |
4.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Netherlands |
29.5 | 36.8 | 27.9 | 23.6 | 26.3 | 0.3 | ||||||||
New Zealand |
5.4 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Nicaragua |
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Nigeria |
10.1 | 10.7 | 37.2 | 39.4 | 41.3 | 0.5 | ||||||||
North Macedonia |
0.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Norway |
7.1 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Oman |
10.7 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Pakistan |
37.1 | 39.1 | 18.3 | 68.7 | 25.4 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Panama |
2.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Papua New Guinea |
0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Paraguay |
0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Peru |
8.2 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Philippines |
9.0 | 16.0 | 11.5 | 17.2 | 23.2 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Poland |
44.1 | 32.9 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 23.0 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Portugal |
29.0 | 33.0 | 27.3 | 28.5 | 23.4 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Qatar |
14.6 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Ras Al Khaimah |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Romania |
12.4 | 12.3 | 16.8 | 13.3 | 19.1 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Russia |
18.7 | 37.1 | 21.4 | 38.4 | 38.6 | 0.5 | ||||||||
Rwanda |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Saudi Arabia |
53.4 | 37.1 | 32.9 | 39.6 | 51.6 | 0.6 | ||||||||
Senegal |
0.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Serbia |
3.8 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Sharjah |
1.5 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Singapore |
26.8 | 36.2 | 16.1 | 18.3 | 25.7 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Slovakia |
5.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Slovenia |
5.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
South Africa |
15.4 | 17.5 | 15.7 | 24.9 | 26.1 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Spain |
132.6 | 156.6 | 155.6 | 126.8 | 131.3 | 1.6 | ||||||||
Sri Lanka |
7.3 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 0.1 | ||||||||
St. Helena |
N.A. | N.A. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Suriname |
0.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Sweden |
18.4 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 6.0 | 12.7 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Switzerland |
3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Taiwan |
3.7 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Tajikistan |
0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Thailand |
22.9 | 32.9 | 38.2 | 45.2 | 49.6 | 0.6 | ||||||||
Togo |
N.A. | N.A. | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Trinidad and Tobago |
1.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Turkey |
35.6 | 44.8 | 32.6 | 45.2 | 57.3 | 0.7 | ||||||||
Turks and Caicos Islands |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Uganda |
0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Ukraine |
11.2 | 16.4 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 0.1 | ||||||||
United Kingdom |
183.7 | 168.1 | 135.3 | 153.2 | 195.0 | 2.4 | ||||||||
United States |
2,169.4 | 2,224.3 | 2,684.7 | 2,935.5 | 3,002.9 | 36.9 | ||||||||
Uruguay |
1.7 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Uzbekistan |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Vietnam |
7.5 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Zambia |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Breakdown by region | ||||||||||||||
Bil. $ | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019e | 2020f | 2020 (% of total) | ||||||||
World | 7,120.5 | 7,293.6 | 7,439.8 | 7,951.7 | 8,129.9 | 100.0 | ||||||||
Americas | 2,613.3 | 2,735.2 | 3,176.2 | 3,398.0 | 3,523.8 | 43.3 | ||||||||
Developed EMEA | 1,208.0 | 1,275.8 | 1,204.0 | 1,176.5 | 1,203.9 | 14.8 | ||||||||
Emerging EMEA | 457.5 | 451.7 | 382.6 | 465.1 | 469.5 | 5.8 | ||||||||
Asia-Pacific | 2,841.7 | 2,830.9 | 2,677.0 | 2,912.0 | 2,932.7 | 36.1 | ||||||||
G-7 | 5,043.7 | 4,953.3 | 5,321.4 | 5,628.5 | 5,733.2 | 70.5 | ||||||||
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category* | ||||||||||||||
Bil. $ | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019e | 2020f | 2020 (% of total) | ||||||||
AAA | 454.2 | 459.0 | 411.9 | 372.1 | 392.7 | 4.8 | ||||||||
AA | 2,824.7 | 2,895.2 | 3,288.5 | 3,576.2 | 3,695.3 | 45.5 | ||||||||
A | 2,651.5 | 2,623.5 | 2,516.9 | 2,622.3 | 2,646.7 | 32.6 | ||||||||
BBB | 625.2 | 711.7 | 666.4 | 762.7 | 748.6 | 9.2 | ||||||||
BB | 229.1 | 277.9 | 231.9 | 255.1 | 327.1 | 4.0 | ||||||||
B | 264.2 | 240.0 | 204.5 | 269.9 | 250.6 | 3.1 | ||||||||
CCC | 71.6 | 86.2 | 119.7 | 93.4 | 68.9 | 0.8 | ||||||||
SD | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
e--Estimate. F--Forecast. N.A.--Not available |
Table 3
Total Commercial Debt At Year-End (Long- And Short-Term) | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bil. $ | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019e | 2020f | 2020 (% of total) | ||||||||
Abu Dhabi | 7.9 | 17.6 | 17.3 | 29.4 | 28.8 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Albania | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Andorra | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Angola | 44.4 | 60.4 | 56.9 | 49.5 | 50.9 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Argentina | 247.5 | 292.5 | 271.4 | 247.4 | 187.6 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Aruba | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Australia | 378.0 | 409.2 | 400.6 | 384.5 | 386.2 | 0.7 | ||||||||
Austria | 219.0 | 253.3 | 242.3 | 231.7 | 236.0 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Azerbaijan | 2.6 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bahamas | 5.6 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bahrain | 23.1 | 28.2 | 31.8 | 31.2 | 32.7 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Bangladesh | 30.9 | 39.7 | 39.5 | 45.5 | 59.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Barbados | 6.2 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Belarus | 6.0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Belgium | 426.8 | 462.5 | 445.2 | 436.9 | 457.7 | 0.9 | ||||||||
Belize | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Benin | N.A. | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bermuda | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bolivia | 1.9 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Botswana | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Brazil | 952.3 | 1,072.4 | 997.0 | 1,032.6 | 1,111.3 | 2.1 | ||||||||
Bulgaria | 11.9 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Burkina Faso | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Cameroon | 3.4 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Canada | 517.7 | 552.2 | 516.3 | 557.1 | 592.9 | 1.1 | ||||||||
Cape Verde | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Chile | 52.3 | 67.7 | 69.0 | 70.5 | 77.2 | 0.1 | ||||||||
China | 1,711.5 | 2,057.4 | 2,294.0 | 2,464.4 | 2,705.9 | 5.1 | ||||||||
Colombia | 108.0 | 120.4 | 126.6 | 129.8 | 134.4 | 0.3 | ||||||||
DR Congo | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Congo-Brazzaville | 1.8 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Cook Islands | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Costa Rica | 23.8 | 26.5 | 28.7 | 31.4 | 34.1 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Croatia | 28.6 | 34.8 | 35.4 | 34.6 | 34.8 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Curacao | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Cyprus | 7.6 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Czech Republic | 60.7 | 73.9 | 70.3 | 70.2 | 74.3 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Denmark | 91.7 | 103.4 | 94.8 | 91.7 | 93.0 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Dominican Republic | 19.2 | 21.9 | 24.7 | 28.7 | 30.9 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Ecuador | 23.7 | 30.6 | 27.3 | 28.3 | 29.3 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Egypt | 356.1 | 184.9 | 225.9 | 253.6 | 261.7 | 0.5 | ||||||||
El Salvador | 7.4 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Estonia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Ethiopia | 11.9 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 13.5 | 15.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Fiji | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Finland | 107.9 | 126.9 | 120.2 | 118.1 | 122.2 | 0.2 | ||||||||
France | 1,708.3 | 2,022.1 | 2,011.1 | 2,026.1 | 2,143.6 | 4.0 | ||||||||
Georgia (Government of) | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Germany | 1,193.2 | 1,356.4 | 1,281.3 | 1,254.3 | 1,275.8 | 2.4 | ||||||||
Ghana | 14.0 | 26.0 | 25.2 | 27.6 | 28.3 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Greece | 53.8 | 78.4 | 76.5 | 75.7 | 78.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Guatemala | 8.7 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 15.9 | 17.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Guernsey | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Honduras | 5.0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Hong Kong | 15.2 | 16.4 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 15.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Hungary | 77.4 | 94.7 | 94.5 | 93.1 | 90.8 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Iceland | 10.0 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
India | 874.5 | 984.1 | 1,284.7 | 1,365.3 | 1,466.4 | 2.8 | ||||||||
Indonesia | 199.6 | 243.1 | 257.8 | 290.6 | 305.8 | 0.6 | ||||||||
Iraq | 68.8 | 73.7 | 42.8 | 40.1 | 47.6 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Ireland | 153.3 | 183.7 | 182.7 | 179.9 | 176.7 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Israel | 192.7 | 215.5 | 210.4 | 237.9 | 258.8 | 0.5 | ||||||||
Italy | 1,968.2 | 2,286.3 | 2,243.5 | 2,225.3 | 2,305.9 | 4.4 | ||||||||
Jamaica | 4.4 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Japan | 9,188.9 | 9,617.0 | 9,929.9 | 10,396.2 | 10,705.6 | 20.2 | ||||||||
Jersey | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Jordan | 29.6 | 31.0 | 27.5 | 29.5 | 30.5 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Kazakhstan | 19.3 | 23.4 | 23.6 | 26.8 | 30.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Kenya | 20.4 | 26.5 | 32.3 | 37.0 | 41.1 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Korea | 490.1 | 586.1 | 583.0 | 589.5 | 623.4 | 1.2 | ||||||||
Kuwait | 20.4 | 23.8 | 19.5 | 16.5 | 14.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Latvia | 8.6 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Lebanon | 72.4 | 77.3 | 83.0 | 88.6 | 94.1 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Liechtenstein | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Lithuania | 13.5 | 17.2 | 15.2 | 16.9 | 17.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Luxembourg | 6.6 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Malaysia | 143.1 | 167.7 | 177.7 | 189.8 | 199.8 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Malta | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Mexico | 298.5 | 364.4 | 365.0 | 386.4 | 410.3 | 0.8 | ||||||||
Mongolia | 5.7 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Montenegro | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Montserrat | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Morocco | 55.5 | 62.7 | 64.5 | 67.2 | 70.6 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Mozambique | 5.8 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Netherlands | 367.7 | 397.6 | 367.3 | 341.4 | 338.9 | 0.6 | ||||||||
New Zealand | 53.3 | 59.8 | 55.3 | 52.7 | 50.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Nicaragua | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Nigeria | 46.1 | 49.2 | 44.5 | 47.2 | 49.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
North Macedonia | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Norway | 53.2 | 56.5 | 53.6 | 49.8 | 58.5 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Oman | 17.2 | 20.4 | 35.7 | 40.6 | 45.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Pakistan | 143.3 | 151.2 | 149.2 | 141.9 | 156.6 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Panama | 16.8 | 18.0 | 19.8 | 23.6 | 25.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Papua New Guinea | 4.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Paraguay | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Peru | 33.3 | 40.2 | 43.9 | 49.1 | 53.3 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Philippines | 105.9 | 116.3 | 120.4 | 134.5 | 142.7 | 0.3 | ||||||||
Poland | 198.5 | 239.6 | 228.2 | 222.4 | 227.7 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Portugal | 176.3 | 216.0 | 220.6 | 224.9 | 235.0 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Qatar | 67.9 | 83.0 | 95.3 | 100.2 | 98.1 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Ras Al Khaimah | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Romania | 59.4 | 73.9 | 80.5 | 88.9 | 91.8 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Russia | 138.2 | 164.0 | 148.1 | 191.4 | 205.9 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Rwanda | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Saudi Arabia | 84.4 | 118.1 | 128.4 | 167.5 | 207.3 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Senegal | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Serbia | 15.0 | 15.5 | 14.2 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Sharjah (Emirate of) | 4.0 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Singapore | 297.3 | 364.6 | 389.2 | 452.0 | 495.2 | 0.9 | ||||||||
Slovakia | 37.8 | 44.4 | 43.2 | 42.9 | 43.7 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Slovenia | 27.9 | 33.7 | 32.7 | 31.0 | 31.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||
South Africa | 163.2 | 202.2 | 193.9 | 213.3 | 239.4 | 0.5 | ||||||||
Spain | 932.1 | 1,022.7 | 1,108.7 | 1,096.2 | 1,149.5 | 2.2 | ||||||||
Sri Lanka | 48.3 | 53.5 | 51.4 | 57.2 | 60.7 | 0.1 | ||||||||
St. Helena | N.A. | N.A. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Suriname | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Sweden | 148.7 | 161.8 | 140.9 | 119.7 | 115.6 | 0.2 | ||||||||
Switzerland | 76.9 | 78.6 | 72.0 | 68.6 | 65.5 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Taiwan | 165.6 | 181.0 | 176.7 | 176.4 | 185.9 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Tajikistan | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Thailand | 117.0 | 144.6 | 164.2 | 180.2 | 195.8 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Togo | N.A. | N.A. | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Trinidad and Tobago | 7.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Turkey | 195.8 | 209.3 | 182.6 | 204.5 | 221.1 | 0.4 | ||||||||
Turks and Caicos Islands | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Uganda | 3.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Ukraine | 43.4 | 47.2 | 49.8 | 51.2 | 69.0 | 0.1 | ||||||||
United Kingdom | 2,414.9 | 2,708.0 | 2,546.1 | 2,710.7 | 2,850.0 | 5.4 | ||||||||
United States | 13,908.2 | 14,468.8 | 15,608.0 | 16,673.4 | 17,703.4 | 33.4 | ||||||||
Uruguay | 23.8 | 26.1 | 26.6 | 27.1 | 28.7 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Uzbekistan | N.A. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Vietnam | 50.2 | 46.2 | 49.9 | 53.7 | 59.6 | 0.1 | ||||||||
Zambia | 7.9 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 13.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Breakdown By Region | ||||||||||||||
Bil. $ | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019e | 2020f | 2020 (% of total) | ||||||||
World | 42,723.7 | 46,464.9 | 48,080.5 | 50,362.7 | 52,968.9 | 100.0 | ||||||||
Americas | 16,283.5 | 17,178.1 | 18,204.8 | 19,369.6 | 20,506.4 | 38.7 | ||||||||
Developed EMEA | 10,272.3 | 11,728.7 | 11,416.1 | 11,463.6 | 11,921.0 | 22.5 | ||||||||
Emerging EMEA | 2,142.4 | 2,308.5 | 2,308.7 | 2,528.3 | 2,717.1 | 5.1 | ||||||||
Asia-Pacific | 14,025.6 | 15,249.6 | 16,150.8 | 17,001.3 | 17,824.4 | 33.7 | ||||||||
G-7 | 30,899.4 | 33,010.8 | 34,136.2 | 35,843.1 | 37,577.1 | 70.9 | ||||||||
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category* | ||||||||||||||
Bil. $ | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019e | 2020f | 2020 (% of total) | ||||||||
AAA | 3,131.1 | 3,490.1 | 3,326.3 | 3,330.7 | 3,432.3 | 6.5 | ||||||||
AA | 20,040.9 | 21,517.0 | 22,433.5 | 23,697.6 | 25,072.0 | 47.3 | ||||||||
A | 12,391.3 | 13,380.4 | 14,022.6 | 14,695.9 | 15,363.6 | 29.0 | ||||||||
BBB | 4,335.5 | 5,051.7 | 5,363.5 | 5,584.9 | 5,876.5 | 11.1 | ||||||||
BB | 1,336.3 | 1,547.6 | 1,488.2 | 1,565.1 | 1,702.7 | 3.2 | ||||||||
B | 1,153.2 | 1,088.5 | 1,068.5 | 1,127.5 | 1,213.1 | 2.3 | ||||||||
CCC | 335.5 | 389.6 | 378.0 | 361.0 | 308.7 | 0.6 | ||||||||
SD | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
e--Estimate. F--Forecast. N.A.--Not available |
Table 4
Central Government Rollover Ratios And Debt Structure | ||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Percentage of total debt, including bi-/multilateral) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2019 | 2020f | |||||||||||||||||||||
Commercial debt (% of total) | Short-term debt (% of total) | Foreign currency debt (% of total) | Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) | Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) | Bi-/multilateral debt (% of total) | Rollover ratio (% of total debt) | Rollover ratio (% of GDP) | Bi-/multilateral debt (% of total) | ||||||||||||||
Abu Dhabi (Emirate of) | 100.0 | 0.0 | 84.9 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Albania | 66.3 | 18.1 | 45.6 | 57.3 | 0.0 | 33.7 | 30.9 | 19.4 | 31.3 | |||||||||||||
Andorra | 100.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 75.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.8 | 11.9 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Angola | 76.0 | 63.0 | 59.0 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 76.8 | 75.3 | 24.0 | |||||||||||||
Argentina | 77.1 | 5.5 | 77.6 | 60.5 | 0.0 | 22.9 | 18.6 | 12.7 | 28.1 | |||||||||||||
Aruba | 99.5 | 5.0 | 39.3 | 84.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||
Australia | 100.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 92.8 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Austria | 100.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 93.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Azerbaijan | 67.7 | 2.9 | 54.4 | 97.1 | 0.0 | 32.3 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 34.5 | |||||||||||||
Bahamas | 96.1 | 16.9 | 33.8 | 45.7 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 20.8 | 13.5 | 3.6 | |||||||||||||
Bahrain | 85.4 | 16.3 | 52.9 | 66.9 | 0.0 | 14.6 | 22.4 | 24.6 | 27.4 | |||||||||||||
Bangladesh | 52.0 | 6.0 | 48.0 | 87.4 | 0.0 | 48.0 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 41.0 | |||||||||||||
Barbados | 84.3 | 4.9 | 24.0 | 95.1 | 0.0 | 15.7 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 18.5 | |||||||||||||
Belarus | 29.7 | 0.0 | 97.2 | 59.4 | 0.0 | 70.3 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 69.0 | |||||||||||||
Belgium | 100.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 89.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Belize | 59.0 | 10.6 | 71.3 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 41.0 | |||||||||||||
Benin | 67.0 | 0.0 | 47.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 33.0 | |||||||||||||
Bermuda | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) | 30.5 | 0.0 | 63.1 | 94.9 | 5.1 | 69.5 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 65.7 | |||||||||||||
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 66.2 | 0.0 | 98.7 | 8.2 | 1.8 | 98.9 | |||||||||||||
Botswana | 43.9 | 3.6 | 56.1 | 45.8 | 0.0 | 56.1 | 14.6 | 1.9 | 56.1 | |||||||||||||
Brazil | 99.6 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 29.9 | 26.0 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||
Bulgaria | 86.4 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 96.9 | 0.0 | 13.6 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 12.7 | |||||||||||||
Burkina Faso | 38.7 | 0.0 | 55.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 61.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 61.3 | |||||||||||||
Cameroon | 36.8 | 0.0 | 77.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 63.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 63.2 | |||||||||||||
Canada | 100.0 | 18.6 | 2.2 | 71.4 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 33.6 | 10.6 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Cape Verde | 51.0 | 0.4 | 70.0 | 95.7 | 0.0 | 49.0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 49.0 | |||||||||||||
Chile | 98.2 | 0.0 | 21.4 | 57.4 | 40.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||
China | 99.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 95.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 18.3 | 3.4 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||
Colombia | 86.8 | 2.8 | 33.9 | 69.3 | 21.1 | 13.2 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 13.2 | |||||||||||||
Congo (the Democratic Republic of the) | 60.5 | 1.1 | 71.8 | 98.9 | 0.0 | 39.5 | 9.6 | 1.1 | 42.3 | |||||||||||||
Congo-Brazzaville | 58.6 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 41.4 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 48.3 | |||||||||||||
Cook Islands | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 100.0 | |||||||||||||
Costa Rica | 93.7 | 1.8 | 41.8 | 78.3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | |||||||||||||
Croatia | 95.6 | 10.7 | 44.0 | 79.4 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 20.8 | 12.1 | 4.4 | |||||||||||||
Curacao | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Cyprus | 59.7 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 60.9 | 0.0 | 40.3 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 37.3 | |||||||||||||
Czech Republic | 97.7 | 1.1 | 11.6 | 85.7 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 2.3 | |||||||||||||
Denmark | 100.0 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 88.7 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 3.3 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Dominican Republic | 80.5 | 0.0 | 66.8 | 86.4 | 0.0 | 19.5 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 19.4 | |||||||||||||
Ecuador | 54.0 | 4.4 | 100.0 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 46.0 | |||||||||||||
Egypt | 87.7 | 35.3 | 28.7 | 64.8 | 0.0 | 12.3 | 39.8 | 33.0 | 12.2 | |||||||||||||
El Salvador | 66.1 | 7.4 | 100.0 | 68.3 | 0.0 | 33.9 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 32.6 | |||||||||||||
Estonia | 14.4 | 14.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.7 | 27.6 | 0.6 | 84.0 | |||||||||||||
Ethiopia | 47.6 | 16.8 | 56.0 | 48.1 | 0.0 | 52.4 | 14.6 | 4.7 | 52.4 | |||||||||||||
Fiji | 78.2 | 4.8 | 28.7 | 80.4 | 0.0 | 21.8 | 15.8 | 7.7 | 20.8 | |||||||||||||
Finland | 100.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 70.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.4 | 8.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
France | 100.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 81.7 | 12.4 | 0.0 | 12.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Georgia (Government of) | 37.0 | 2.5 | 80.0 | 74.1 | 0.0 | 63.0 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 63.0 | |||||||||||||
Germany | 99.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 92.3 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||
Ghana | 69.2 | 7.8 | 51.4 | 73.8 | 18.5 | 30.8 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 30.6 | |||||||||||||
Greece | 19.2 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 83.0 | 0.4 | 80.8 | 12.5 | 22.5 | 80.4 | |||||||||||||
Guatemala | 75.8 | 0.0 | 48.5 | 79.1 | 0.0 | 24.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 21.7 | |||||||||||||
Guernsey | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Honduras | 56.0 | 0.0 | 60.7 | 69.9 | 4.0 | 44.0 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 44.0 | |||||||||||||
Hong Kong | 100.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 92.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Hungary | 93.1 | 10.6 | 17.4 | 60.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 22.8 | 13.8 | 6.9 | |||||||||||||
Iceland | 100.0 | 2.5 | 21.1 | 64.4 | 33.2 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 4.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
India | 94.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 89.9 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 5.0 | |||||||||||||
Indonesia | 85.2 | 1.7 | 42.9 | 90.5 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 15.0 | |||||||||||||
Iraq | 41.1 | 0.0 | 64.9 | 88.9 | 0.0 | 58.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 60.7 | |||||||||||||
Ireland | 78.4 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 91.3 | 0.5 | 21.6 | 17.0 | 9.4 | 21.5 | |||||||||||||
Israel | 100.0 | 0.8 | 13.4 | 41.4 | 52.3 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Italy | 100.0 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 75.9 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 15.4 | 17.4 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Jamaica | 77.3 | 0.5 | 59.8 | 67.4 | 2.7 | 22.7 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 22.9 | |||||||||||||
Japan | 100.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 27.8 | 56.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Jersey (States of) | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Jordan | 77.9 | 1.1 | 43.5 | 87.9 | 0.0 | 22.1 | 16.3 | 14.2 | 23.7 | |||||||||||||
Kazakhstan | 81.8 | 0.0 | 45.6 | 73.2 | 10.2 | 18.2 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 14.7 | |||||||||||||
Kenya | 67.7 | 17.1 | 49.6 | 66.3 | 0.0 | 32.3 | 21.0 | 12.2 | 32.5 | |||||||||||||
Korea (the Republic of) | 100.0 | 12.6 | 1.3 | 87.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Kuwait | 100.0 | 0.0 | 48.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Latvia | 93.1 | 4.8 | 10.5 | 81.1 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 16.2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | |||||||||||||
Lebanon | 97.7 | 2.8 | 37.0 | 96.7 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 13.2 | 22.3 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||
Liechtenstein | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | 0.0 | N.M. | |||||||||||||
Lithuania | 88.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 10.9 | |||||||||||||
Luxembourg | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Malaysia | 99.3 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 99.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||
Malta | 100.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 93.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Mexico | 93.4 | 9.7 | 22.7 | 55.0 | 21.1 | 6.6 | 15.1 | 5.4 | 6.9 | |||||||||||||
Mongolia | 60.0 | 10.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 16.2 | 8.9 | 60.0 | |||||||||||||
Montenegro | 65.7 | 2.0 | 20.5 | 79.3 | 0.0 | 34.3 | 17.9 | 12.1 | 33.4 | |||||||||||||
Montserrat | 17.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 84.7 | |||||||||||||
Morocco | 85.2 | 0.1 | 22.2 | 92.3 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 16.3 | |||||||||||||
Mozambique | 53.0 | 4.0 | 80.0 | 72.0 | 24.0 | 47.0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 47.0 | |||||||||||||
Netherlands | 100.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.9 | 5.8 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
New Zealand | 100.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 75.1 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Nicaragua | 13.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 73.9 | 0.0 | 86.4 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 87.6 | |||||||||||||
Nigeria | 78.6 | 13.2 | 38.4 | 84.3 | 0.0 | 21.4 | 13.1 | 2.0 | 21.7 | |||||||||||||
North Macedonia | 79.5 | 11.8 | 76.9 | 76.2 | 0.0 | 20.5 | 22.6 | 9.3 | 19.3 | |||||||||||||
Norway | 100.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 87.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Oman | 92.5 | 1.5 | 78.4 | 75.4 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 7.5 | |||||||||||||
Pakistan | 72.8 | 17.7 | 34.8 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 27.2 | 24.3 | 20.4 | 25.0 | |||||||||||||
Panama | 79.2 | 1.1 | 100.0 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 20.8 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 20.4 | |||||||||||||
Papua New Guinea | 47.4 | 36.4 | 37.7 | 59.8 | 0.0 | 52.6 | 40.9 | 14.0 | 52.9 | |||||||||||||
Paraguay | 66.6 | 0.0 | 86.4 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 33.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 34.6 | |||||||||||||
Peru | 91.1 | 0.5 | 30.0 | 90.4 | 2.3 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 10.6 | |||||||||||||
Philippines | 86.3 | 6.2 | 32.9 | 84.8 | 0.0 | 13.7 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 16.1 | |||||||||||||
Poland | 93.2 | 0.2 | 27.6 | 72.4 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||
Portugal | 79.7 | 8.9 | 1.7 | 83.4 | 0.0 | 20.3 | 13.3 | 16.0 | 19.6 | |||||||||||||
Qatar | 100.0 | 6.9 | 42.3 | 93.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.3 | 10.4 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of) | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 84.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.5 | 1.6 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Romania | 92.8 | 16.1 | 42.7 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 10.1 | 6.7 | |||||||||||||
Russia | 99.5 | 0.0 | 21.6 | 85.1 | 14.4 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||
Rwanda | 28.5 | 8.4 | 79.1 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 71.5 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 74.4 | |||||||||||||
Saudi Arabia | 100.0 | 0.0 | 51.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Senegal | 45.1 | 0.0 | 89.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 54.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 54.9 | |||||||||||||
Serbia | 57.5 | 0.0 | 70.4 | 84.4 | 0.0 | 42.5 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 46.0 | |||||||||||||
Sharjah (Emirate of) | 100.0 | 0.0 | 53.2 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Singapore | 100.0 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 87.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.4 | 18.8 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Slovakia | 93.9 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 6.8 | |||||||||||||
Slovenia | 97.9 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 98.2 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||
South Africa | 100.0 | 11.7 | 10.1 | 57.9 | 20.4 | 0.0 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Spain | 96.5 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 85.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 3.3 | |||||||||||||
Sri Lanka | 80.0 | 10.0 | 54.2 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 20.1 | 17.7 | 14.5 | 20.1 | |||||||||||||
St. Helena | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | N.M. | 0.0 | N.M. | |||||||||||||
Suriname | 62.4 | 6.4 | 64.5 | 93.7 | 0.0 | 37.6 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 34.4 | |||||||||||||
Sweden | 100.0 | 12.2 | 25.3 | 70.5 | 17.3 | 0.0 | 29.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Switzerland | 100.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 90.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 1.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Taiwan | 100.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 98.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Tajikistan | 13.7 | 5.0 | 79.3 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 86.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 87.1 | |||||||||||||
Thailand | 96.0 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 79.2 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | |||||||||||||
Togo | 14.8 | 0.0 | 27.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 85.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 85.2 | |||||||||||||
Trinidad and Tobago | 83.0 | 6.2 | 37.5 | 77.3 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 18.2 | 7.8 | 18.7 | |||||||||||||
Turkey | 91.5 | 4.0 | 49.7 | 70.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 18.0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | |||||||||||||
Turks and Caicos Islands | 38.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 61.8 | 100.1 | 0.2 | 90.6 | |||||||||||||
Uganda | 34.3 | 9.9 | 67.0 | 84.5 | 0.0 | 65.7 | 15.0 | 6.9 | 65.6 | |||||||||||||
Ukraine | 64.7 | 1.0 | 66.0 | 73.4 | 7.1 | 35.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 20.0 | |||||||||||||
United Kingdom | 100.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 63.4 | 33.9 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
United States | 100.0 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 73.8 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 25.6 | 20.4 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
Uruguay | 90.9 | 0.0 | 56.1 | 58.9 | 35.4 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 9.3 | |||||||||||||
Uzbekistan | 10.1 | 0.0 | 97.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 89.9 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 91.3 | |||||||||||||
Vietnam | 42.3 | 20.0 | 65.0 | 53.6 | 0.0 | 57.7 | 21.5 | 10.6 | 57.0 | |||||||||||||
Zambia | 71.2 | 15.0 | 64.1 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 28.9 | 17.7 | 13.2 | 27.1 | |||||||||||||
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category* | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2019 | 2020f | |||||||||||||||||||||
Commercial debt (% of total) | Short-term debt (% of total) | Foreign currency debt (% of total) | Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) | Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) | Bi-/multilateral debt (% of total) | Rollover ratio (% of total debt) | Rollover ratio (% of GDP) | Bi-/multilateral debt (% of total) | ||||||||||||||
AAA | 99.8 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 87.4 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 17.9 | 5.8 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||
AA | 99.8 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 74.3 | 11.9 | 0.2 | 21.4 | 15.8 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||
A | 99.5 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 86.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 24.0 | 15.6 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||
BBB | 94.6 | 6.1 | 11.4 | 79.6 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | |||||||||||||
BB | 75.5 | 5.6 | 16.3 | 51.9 | 15.3 | 24.5 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 23.4 | |||||||||||||
B | 73.2 | 15.5 | 49.9 | 70.2 | 2.8 | 26.8 | 22.4 | 11.4 | 26.6 | |||||||||||||
CCC | 79.9 | 5.2 | 69.0 | 69.7 | 0.9 | 20.1 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 22.9 | |||||||||||||
SD | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
f--Forecast. N.M.--Not meaningful. |
Related Research
- Sovereign Debt 2020: Emerging Market EMEA Borrowing Will Likely Inch Up 0.6% To $473.3 Billion, Feb. 20, 2020
- Sovereign Debt 2020: Commercial Borrowing By Developed Markets In EMEA Expected To Reach $1.2 Trillion, Feb. 20, 2020
- Sovereign Debt 2020: Latin American And Caribbean Commercial Borrowing Is Likely To Increase 10% To $425 Billion, Feb. 20, 2020
- Sovereign Debt 2020: Asia-Pacific Central Governments To Borrow Nearly US$3 Trillion, Feb. 20, 2020
- Sovereign Ratings List, Feb. 10, 2020
- Sovereign Ratings History, Feb. 10, 2020
- Sovereign Ratings Score Snapshot, Feb. 4, 2020
- Sovereign Risk Indicators, Dec. 12, 2019; a free interactive version is available at http://www.spratings.com/sri
This report does not constitute a rating action.
Primary Credit Analysts: | Karen Vartapetov, PhD, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; karen.vartapetov@spglobal.com |
Roberto H Sifon-arevalo, New York (1) 212-438-7358; roberto.sifon-arevalo@spglobal.com | |
Secondary Contact: | Patricio E Vimberg, Buenos Aires (54) 114-891-2132; patricio.vimberg@spglobal.com |
Research Contributor: | Hari Krishan, Mumbai; hari.krishan@spglobal.com |
Additional Contact: | EMEA Sovereign and IPF; SovereignIPF@spglobal.com |
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