The 2019 global corporate default tally reached 100 this week after the defaults of Dallas-based milk processor Dean Foods Co. and Colorado-based auto part manufacturer APC Automotive Technologies Intermediate Holdings LLC. In addition, we have revised our default tally due to a monthly reconciliation process to include Delaware-based auto supplier Dura Automotive Systems LLC, Pennsylvania-based retailer Destination Maternity Corp., and one confidential issuer.
The U.S. makes up the overwhelmingly largest percentage of this year's default tally, with 70%. The U.S. speculative-grade default rate has increased so far in 2019, to 2.8% in September from 2.3% in January (see chart 1). Current financial and credit environment indicators, including an inverted yield curve, a weaker speculative-grade ('BB+' or lower) rating distribution, and an increase in 'B-' first-time-rated issuers, suggest the default rate could reach 10% or higher by late 2020-2022 (see "A Double-Digit U.S. Default Rate Could Be On The Horizon," Oct. 2, 2019).
Chart 1
This Week's Observations
- Of the five additions to this week's tally, four are from the U.S., and two of these are from the auto sector.
- The global 12-month trailing speculative-grade default rate has increased in 2019, to 2.3% in September from 2% in January, largely due to an increase in U.S. defaults.
- Oil and gas and the retail and restaurants sector lead defaults in the U.S. with 16 and 13, respectively.
- Bankruptcy-related defaults have increased this year, reaching a total of 28--already the second-highest number of bankruptcy-related defaults since 2009, trailing only 2016, when there were 29.
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
Table 1
We Estimate The U.S. And European Default Rates Increased In October | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global corporate default summary | ||||||||||||
Region | 12-month trailing speculative-grade default rate (%) | 2019 year-to-date default tally | 2018 year-to-date default tally | 2018 default tally | Weakest links tally | |||||||
U.S. | 3.0* | 70 | 43 | 47 | 177 | |||||||
Emerging markets | 1.4 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 47 | |||||||
Europe | 2.2* | 12 | 10 | 13 | 36 | |||||||
Other developed | 1.9 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||||||
Global | 2.3 | 100 | 74 | 82 | 263 | |||||||
Notes: Other developed region consists of Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand. Default counts may include confidentially rated issuers. *Trailing-12-month default rates from Oct. 31, 2018-Oct. 31, 2019, are preliminary and subject to change. Year-to-date data as of Nov. 13, 2019. Weakest link data as of Sept. 23, 2019. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®. |
Table 2
Five Defaults Take The 2019 Global Corporate Default Tally To 100 This Week | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global corporate defaults in 2019 | ||||||||||||||
Date | Parent company | Country | Subsector | To | From | Reason | ||||||||
1/2/2019 | Ultra Petroleum Corp. | U.S. | Oil and gas | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
1/8/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Telecommunications | D | CCC | Confidential | ||||||||
1/15/2019 |
API Heat Transfer Co. |
U.S. | Capital goods | SD | CCC- | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
1/16/2019 | Shopko Stores Inc. | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
1/16/2019 | Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (PG&E Corp.) | U.S. | Utilities | D | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
1/18/2019 |
Ditech Holding Corp. |
U.S. | Finance companies | SD | CCC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
1/29/2019 |
PG&E Corp. |
U.S. | Utilities | D | CC | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
1/30/2019 |
Eletson Holdings Inc. |
Liberia | Transportation | SD | CCC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
1/31/2019 | New Look Retail Group Ltd. | U.K. | Retail/restaurants | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
2/1/2019 | Tsesnabank | Kazakhstan | Bank | SD | B- | Distressed exchange/out-of-court restructuring | ||||||||
2/4/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Homebuilders/real estate companies | D | CCC- | Confidential | ||||||||
2/4/2019 | Charlotte Russe Inc. | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | D | CCC- | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
2/6/2019 | TRM Holdings Corp. | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
2/7/2019 | Fuse Media Inc. | U.S. | Media and entertainment | D | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
2/7/2019 |
Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc. |
U.S. | Oil and gas | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
2/10/2019 | Trident Holding Co. LLC | U.S. | Health care | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
2/19/2019 | Payless Inc. | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | D | CCC- | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
2/21/2019 |
Novasep Holding S.A.S. |
France | Health care | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
2/21/2019 | One Call Corp. (One Call Care Management Inc.) (A) | U.S. | Insurance | SD | CC | Distressed exchange/out-of-court restructuring | ||||||||
2/26/2019 | Windstream Holdings Inc. | U.S. | Telecommunications | D | CCC- | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
3/8/2019 | Affinion Group Holdings Inc. | U.S. | Media and entertainment | SD | CCC- | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
3/11/2019 | CTI Foods Holding Co. LLC | U.S. | Consumer products | D | CCC- | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
3/15/2019 | Imperial Metals Corp. | Canada | Metals, mining, and steel | SD | CCC- | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
3/15/2019 | Cloud Peak Energy Resources LLC | U.S. | Metals, mining, and steel | SD | CCC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
3/15/2019 | PHI Inc. | U.S. | Oil and gas | D | CCC- | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
3/20/2019 | Nyrstar N.V. | Belgium | Metals, mining, and steel | SD | CCC+ | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
3/21/2019 | Murray Energy Corp. (A) | U.S. | Metals, mining, and steel | SD | CCC+ | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
3/28/2019 | Evergreen AcqCo1 L.P. d/b/a Savers | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | SD | CCC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
3/29/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | High technology | D | CCC- | Confidential | ||||||||
4/1/2019 |
Hexion Inc. |
U.S. | Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services | D | CCC | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
4/1/2019 | Southcross Energy Partners L.P. | U.S. | Utilities | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
4/2/2019 | Sungard Availability Services Capital Inc. | U.S. | High technology | D | CCC+ | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
4/2/2019 |
Monitronics International Inc. |
U.S. | Media and entertainment | SD | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
4/3/2019 | Maxcom Telecomunicaciones S.A.B. de C.V. (A) | Mexico | Telecommunications | SD | CCC+ | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
4/3/2019 | Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. | Canada | Oil and gas | D | CCC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
4/4/2019 |
Debenhams PLC |
U.K. | Retail/restaurants | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
4/4/2019 |
Fusion Connect Inc. |
U.S. | Telecommunications | D | B | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
4/5/2019 | Curvature Inc. | U.S. | High technology | SD | CCC+ | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
4/12/2019 | MIE Holdings Corp. | Cayman Islands | Oil and gas | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
4/14/2019 | Jones Energy Inc. | U.S. | Oil and gas | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
4/15/2019 | Crossmark Holdings Inc. | U.S. | Consumer products | SD | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
4/16/2019 | Bristow Group Inc. | U.S. | Oil and gas | D | CCC- | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
5/1/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Media and entertainment | D | NR | Confidential | ||||||||
5/2/2019 | Senvion Holding GmbH (Suzlon Energy Ltd.) | Germany | Capital goods | SD | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
5/2/2019 | Parq Holdings L.P. | Canada | Media and entertainment | SD | CCC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
5/6/2019 | Hospital Acquisition LLC (d/b/a LCI Holding Co. LLC) | U.S. | Health care | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
5/9/2019 | Preferred Proppants LLC | U.S. | Metals, mining, and steel | D | CCC+ | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
5/22/2019 | USJ Acucar e Alcool S.A. | Brazil | Consumer products | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
5/27/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services | SD | CCC | Confidential | ||||||||
5/28/2019 | White Star Petroleum Holdings LLC | U.S. | Oil and gas | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
5/31/2019 | Sheridan Investment Partners II L.P. (Sheridan Holding Co. II LLC) | U.S. | Finance companies | SD | CCC- | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
5/31/2019 | Sheridan Investment Partners I LLC (Sheridan Holding Co. I LLC) | U.S. | Finance companies | SD | CCC- | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
6/3/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Media and entertainment | D | NR | Confidential | ||||||||
6/3/2019 | FTD Inc. | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
6/4/2019 | Legacy Reserves L.P. | U.S. | Oil and gas | D | CCC- | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
6/11/2019 | Neiman Marcus Group LLC (The) | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | SD | CC | Distressed exchange/out-of-court restructuring | ||||||||
6/14/2019 |
New Academy Holding Co. LLC |
U.S. | Retail/restaurants | SD | CCC+ | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
6/19/2019 |
Denbury Resources Inc. |
U.S. | Oil and gas | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
6/21/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Transportation | SD | CC | Confidential | ||||||||
6/21/2019 |
Galapagos Holding S.A. |
Luxembourg | Capital goods | SD | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
6/24/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Health care | D | NR | Confidential | ||||||||
6/26/2019 |
Cell C (Pty) Ltd. |
South Africa | Telecommunications | SD | CCC- | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
6/28/2019 |
Mood Media Corp. |
U.S. | Media and entertainment | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
7/2/2019 |
Weatherford International PLC |
Ireland | Oil and gas | D | CC | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
7/3/2019 | PES Holdings LLC | U.S. | Oil and gas | D | B- | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
7/11/2019 |
Stearns Holdings LLC |
U.S. | Finance companies | D | CCC+ | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
7/12/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Homebuilders/real estate companies | SD | CC | Confidential | ||||||||
7/18/2019 |
American Energy Permian Holdings LLC |
U.S. | Oil and gas | D | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
7/19/2019 | Blackhawk Mining | U.S. | Metals, mining, and steel | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
7/23/2019 |
99 Cents Only Stores LLC |
U.S. | Retail/restaurants | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
7/23/2019 |
Avianca Holdings S.A. |
Panama | Transportation | SD | CCC+ | Missed principal payments | ||||||||
8/6/2019 | Barneys New York Inc. | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
8/7/2019 | Halcon Resources Corp. | U.S. | Oil and gas | D | CC | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
8/12/2019 | Sanchez Energy Corp. | U.S. | Oil and gas | D | CC | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
8/21/2019 | Maxcom Telecomunicaciones S.A.B. de C.V. (B) | Mexico | Telecommunications | D | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
9/3/2019 | Burger BossCo Intermediate Inc. | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | SD | CCC+ | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
9/12/2019 | Alta Mesa Resources Inc. | U.S. | Oil and gas | D | CCC- | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
9/13/2019 |
Chesapeake Energy Corp. |
U.S. | Oil and gas | SD | B+ | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
9/13/2019 | PT Delta Merlin Dunia Textile | Indonesia | Consumer products | D | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
9/17/2019 |
EP Energy LLC |
U.S. | Oil and gas | D | CC | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
9/19/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Capital goods | D | CCC | Confidential | ||||||||
9/24/2019 | Thomas Cook Group PLC | U.K. | Media and entertainment | D | CC | Chapter 15 | ||||||||
9/27/2019 |
Premiere Global Services Inc. |
U.S. | Telecommunications | SD | CCC- | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
10/2/2019 |
Acosta Inc. |
U.S. | Consumer products | SD | CCC | Missed principal and interest payments | ||||||||
10/2/2019 |
Syncreon Group Holdings B.V. |
Netherlands | Consumer products | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
10/3/2019 | Deluxe Entertainment Services Group Inc. | U.S. | Media and entertainment | D | CC | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
10/4/2019 | Murray Energy Corp. (B) | U.S. | Metals, mining, and steel | SD | CCC | Missed amortization and interest payments | ||||||||
10/7/2019 |
Medical Depot Holdings Inc. |
U.S. | Health care | D | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
10/14/2019 |
Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd. |
India | Capital goods | SD | CCC | Missed principal payments | ||||||||
10/15/2019 |
Rite Aid Corp. |
U.S. | Retail/restaurants | SD | B- | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
10/16/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Capital goods | D | CCC- | Confidential | ||||||||
10/17/2019 | CDR HRB Holdings Inc. | U.S. | Consumer products | D | CCC- | Missed principal and interest payments | ||||||||
10/17/2019 | Dura Automotive Systems LLC | U.S. | Automotive | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
10/21/2019 | Destination Maternity Corp. | U.S. | Retail/restaurants | D | NR | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
10/27/2019 | Confidential | Confidential | Consumer products | D | CCC+ | Confidential | ||||||||
10/31/2019 | Foresight Energy L.P. (Murray Energy Corp.) | U.S. | Metals, mining, and steel | SD | CCC- | Missed interest payments | ||||||||
10/31/2019 | One Call Corp. (One Call Care Management Inc.) (B) | U.S. | Insurance | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
11/6/2019 |
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. |
U.S. | Homebuilders/real estate companies | SD | CCC+ | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
11/12/2019 |
Dean Foods Co. |
U.S. | Consumer products | D | CCC+ | Chapter 11 | ||||||||
11/13/2019 | APC Automotive Technologies Intermediate Holdings LLC | U.S. | Automotive | SD | CC | Distressed exchange | ||||||||
NR--Not rated. SD--Selective default. Data as of Nov. 13, 2019. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®. |
Related Research
- APC Automotive Technologies Intermediate Holdings Downgraded To 'SD' On Distressed Exchange; Debt Rating Lowered To 'D', Nov. 13, 2019
- Dean Foods Co. Downgraded To 'D' On Chapter 11 Filing, Nov. 12, 2019
Default Studies
More analysis and statistics are available in our annual default studies, published on RatingsDirect:
Corporate (financial and nonfinancial)
- 2018 Annual Global Financial Services Default And Rating Transition Study
- 2018 Annual Greater China Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study
- 2018 Annual Taiwan Ratings Corp. Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study
- 2018 Annual Global Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study
- 2018 Annual U.S. Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study
- 2018 Annual Asia Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study
- Japanese Issuer Credit Rating Transitions Study 2018
- 2017 Annual Australia And New Zealand Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Inaugural Infrastructure Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Mexican National-Scale Corporate And Public Finance Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual Emerging Markets Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual European Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual Canadian Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Inaugural Nordic Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual Brazil Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual Latin American Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions
Structured finance
- 2018 Annual European Structured Finance Default And Rating Transition Study
- 2018 Annual Global Leveraged Loan CLO Default And Rating Transition Study
- 2018 Annual Taiwan Structured Finance Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2018 Annual Global Structured Finance Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2018 Annual Japanese Structured Finance Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual Mexican Structured Finance Default Study And Rating Transitions
U.S. public finance
- 2018 Annual U.S. Public Finance Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual U.S. Public Finance Not-For-Profit Health Care Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 U.S. Public Finance Utility Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 U.S. Public Finance Transportation Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual U.S. Public Finance Housing Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual U.S. Public Finance Charter School Default Study And Rating Transitions
- 2017 Annual U.S. Public Finance Higher Education And Nonprofit Organization Default Study And Rating Transitions
Sovereign and international public finance
- 2018 Annual International Public Finance Default And Rating Transition Study
- 2018 Annual Sovereign Default And Rating Transition Study
This report does not constitute a rating action.
Credit Markets Research: | Nicole Serino, New York; nicole.serino@spglobal.com |
Sudeep K Kesh, New York (1) 212-438-7982; sudeep.kesh@spglobal.com | |
Research Contributor: | Lyndon Fernandes, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai |
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