The Trucking Industry Forecast for the Next Decade and Beyond

Reinventing the Truck Report

The Reinventing the Truck Annual Report from S&P Global was published in late December 2024.

For more than a century, the trucking industry has been the backbone of global commerce, moving freight that fuels the world's economic engine.

But disruption is looming, driven by an increased focus on climate change, stricter regulations and technological innovations that are set to reshape the industry's future.

The Reinventing the Truck 2024 update explores a trucking industry in flux

In the Reinventing the Truck (RTT) 2024 update, S&P Global Mobility and S&P Global Commodity Insights have again brought together automotive and energy experts to identify and address major questions facing the industry.

This 2024 update navigates a trucking industry in flux. Our scenario-based approach carefully balances growing optimism for electric vehicles (EVs) against the backdrop of practical and political challenges.

Trucking plays a crucial role in discussions about energy transition and climate policy. Although medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs) over six tons — including buses and motor homes — made up only 4% of global vehicle sales in 2023, they are a major source of on-road CO₂ emissions because they travel many miles, have lower fuel efficiency compared to cars and remain in use for longer. In 2024, MHCVs are projected to account for 39% of global road transport liquid fuel demand and 40% of global road-sector CO₂ emissions.

These figures highlight the importance to many policymakers around the world of decarbonizing this sector to achieve climate goals. The RTT 2024 report offers a comprehensive long-term trucking industry forecast addressing vital questions about the future of trucking in the key markets of Mainland China, Europe, Japan and the United States.

Zero-emissions vehicles, regulations and energy transition costs will influence the trucking industry's next decade

Each year's RTT study reflects the past 12 months' key developments and milestones while anticipating emerging trends and catalysts for change. This year's report is no exception.

Here are some of the main trucking industry projections explored in the report.

Truck Sales and Market Trends:

• We expect total truck sales in the RTT markets to peak before the end of this decade.
  
  
• The next 36 months will be a critical period for industry zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) goals.
  
  
• ZEV adoption has been slower than expected in recent months, which means that through the mid-2030s, the adoption curve for zero-emission trucks will be steeper compared to past projections, particularly in Europe and the United States.
  
  
• In the base-case scenario, OEMs will explore alternatives to ZEVs to reduce emissions, including improved diesel, natural gas and different types of hybrids.
  
  
• We expect significant adoption of hybrid and range extender electric trucks only in the United States due to California Air and Resource Board regulations mandating the use of zero or near-zero emission vehicles.

Regulations and Policy Drivers:

• In Europe and the United States, regulations will be the main driver of electrified truck adoption over the next decade.
  
  
• Two important truck regulations adopted in Europe and the United States in 2024 have affected the RTT 2024 commercial fleet market forecasts.

Hydrogen and Alternative Energy:

• We have downgraded both mid-term and long-term forecasts for hydrogen-powered trucks compared to previous trucking industry forecasts.

Autonomous Trucks:

• The December 2024 RTT report includes a US commercial fleet forecast for Level 4 autonomous trucks, with volume projections based on truck freight tonnage by highway lane at the state level. By 2050, we expect autonomous trucks to transport goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

Environmental Impact and Energy Transition:

• By 2050, the energy transition in the RTT trucking market is projected to reduce CO₂ emissions by 31% to 77% compared to 2024 levels, under the Inflections and Green Rules Scenarios, respectively.
  
  
• In our "inflections" scenario, energy transition costs across all RTT markets will exceed $50 billion over the next decade. This transition will be the most transformative period in the history of the trucking industry.

How clean energy, the political landscape and regulations will shape the trucking industry in 2025 and beyond

The RTT report unveils two plausible scenarios of how the future market landscape will evolve and how clean energy technology will transform the MHCV fuel mix. The report examines how the 2024 US election could affect the adoption of zero-emission trucks in the United States, the options truck OEMs have to meet Europe's new CO₂ reduction regulations and the costs of zero-emission trucks for different types of work.

It also compares the timeline for adopting electrified trucks in Mainland China with those in the United States and Europe and evaluates the energy transition costs for each market.

The deliverable, which includes a 225-slide PDF report along with two Excel datasets, is now available. Contact us for more information on the latest Reinventing the Truck report.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.