Toyota Tundra Represents Growing Competition in Pickup Segment

US manufacturers are competing for market share of full-size half ton pickups.

The full-size half ton pickup segment in the US gets significant attention from the media, analysts, and several manufacturers. Yet, it is only the fourth-largest segment in the industry.

The exceptional attention paid to this vehicle category is due to several facts, including:

• Three of the pickup models are volume leaders for their respective brands as well as industry wide.
• The segment is one of the few in which domestic manufacturers still hold a commanding position.
• Owners tend to have high brand loyalty.
• The vehicles are highly profitable for their respective OEMs.
• The underlying architectures of these models are also the basis for full-size SUVs, resulting in scale that drives high profits-per-vehicle across both segments.

Given this landscape, it is noteworthy that the relative positions of several entries in this segment have shifted recently—particularly the Toyota Tundra.

The Tundra has not historically been a leader for the company, compared to most other Toyota products which rank in the top three in their respective segments. The Tundra has lagged behind most competitors and its position deteriorated from 2014 through 2021 (See Figure 1).

However, Toyota introduced an all-new Tundra in the US in late 2021 as a 2022 model year vehicle (significant new retail registrations first appeared in December 2021). Designed and engineered in the US, this vehicle offers content, technology, and a breadth of features that are much more in line with domestic competitors than past Tundra models.

New features of the 2022 Tundra include:

• Aluminum-block, twin-turbo 3.5-liter V6 engine as standard, mated to a 10-speed automatic transmission; this engine delivers 389 horsepower and 479 pound-feet of torque, more power and torque than some competitive V8 powertrains.
• High-strength, fully boxed, steel-ladder frame, using aluminum in key areas for weight reduction.
• Sheet-molded compound bed with reinforced aluminum cross members.
• Interior with an instrument panel dominated by a horizontally mounted 14-inch touch screen.
• Capstone high-end series, with upgraded materials, luxury interior, and improved technologies as standard; this series provides competition to the F-150 King Ranch and Platinum and Sierra Denali series.

Loyalty Also Improves for Tundra in Tandem with Share Growth

S&P Global Mobility registration and loyalty data clearly indicate that the Tundra's market performance began to improve at almost the same time as the new version arrived at Toyota stores. As Figure 2 indicates, Tundra's retail share of the full-size half ton pickup segment more than doubled from 3.7% in December 2021 to 8.4% in April 2022.

In April 2024, Tundra's retail share reached a record 15.3%, more than four times its share back in December 2021 when the new version arrived. It is also noteworthy that Tundra now (as of April) ranks #4 in the segment, ahead of all models except the Silverado 1500, F-150, and Sierra 1500.

The improvements in Tundra's conquest/ defection ratios (conquests or inflow divided by defections or outflow) with key competitors also illustrate Tundra's significantly improved performance since the arrival of the re-designed version.

As Figure 3 indicates, in 2021 Tundra had a net outflow with each of its three main competitors in every month except two. However, beginning in the early months of 2022, with the new Tundra now available, its ratio began to rise and has been greater than 1.0 (indicating net inflow) with all three models every month since February 2024. Impressively, Tundra's ratio with F-150 and Ram 1500 surpassed 2.0 in several of these months.

Finally, Tundra's loan monthly payment data suggest Toyota was able to command a payment equal to the upscale Sierra 1500 for much of the 2023 calendar year and above that of all other competitors, followed by a segment-leading payment in each of the four months in 2024 for which S&P Global Mobility has complete data. Moreover, Tundra's payment reached a near-term record of $1,014 in March of 2024 exceeding Silverado 1500 and F-150 monthly payments by 23% and 21%, respectively.

Maintaining share in this segment is crucial for domestic US manufacturers to generate the profits needed to develop EVs, which currently bleed red ink for most, if not all, manufacturers. Toyota, on the other hand, sees this category as the one remaining space left to conquer in the huge US retail new vehicle market.

The bottom line is that every make will be battling for every possible full-size half ton pickup sale in the coming months.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.