Pick a winner: Electrons or molecules

'Drop-in' bio-fuels can help decarbonization efforts until new options arrive

As efforts to decarbonize transportation intensify, a wide range of less carbon-intensive fuels and alternative-propulsion technologies are emerging. In the ongoing question whether electrons or molecules will be the future propellant of our vehicles, the answer likely is both.

A CERAWeek expert panel comprising several energy companies found the solutions likely will be driven by local and regional market conditions.

The transportation fuel mix will evolve differently across sectors and geographies, with policy, technology, and infrastructure among the key variables.

"Today we focus on drop-in fuels that use the existing infrastructure: CNG, LNG, RNG, biodiesel," said Carlos Augusto Maurer, executive vice president for sectors and decarbonization for Shell. "We can leverage the infrastructure we have and the existing global trading business. But you will hit the top of how many biomasses you can supply, and you need to move to electrification and hydrogen.

"Inevitably, we will end up in a poly-fuels world. The regulations are different in different places. You have to work with regulators, OEMs, customers, and end users to understand a reasonable and affordable glide path," Maurer added.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, energy security and self-sufficiency have become larger contributing factors to energy decisions, from what previously had been "a transactional relationship," Maurer said.

But while solutions may be custom-built, energy projects such as green hydrogen require large investment to scale, said Carlos Barrasa, executive vice president of commercial and clean energies for Spanish energy company CEPSA.

"We cannot start with a small project. We need big projects, big infrastructure, with the right regulatory support, to have fully competitive renewable power. With the right subsidies we can have a viable product," Barrasa said.

Finding new ways to create less-carbon-intensive fuels for the existing, older vehicle parc is a priority. Synthetic fuels are nothing new; they have been around since World War II. Today, HIF Energy is exploring methanol conversion.

HIF's process takes renewable energy to create green hydrogen, then synthesizes it with carbon dioxide to make "eMethanol." Once in that state, it can be converted to gasoline, said Clara Bowman, COO of HIF Global.

"It is identical to a fossil fuel, and we are not taking more carbon out of the ground. We can make jet fuel or diesel, it can be used for plastics. Everything done with petroleum we can do with eFuel or synthetic fuel," Bowman said.

Getting lower-carbon fuels into the existing vehicle parc of 1.3 billion vehicles is essential, said Edouard Tavernier, president of S&P Global Mobility.

"The vast majority of future on-road emissions come from what is on the road today. If we want to decarbonize faster, we have to do something about the existing fleet of vehicles," Tavernier said.

Small wins are already happening. Last fall, more than 200 flights from Seville, Spain, used sustainable aviation fuel. "When you do it locally, you can see change happen. Local experiments then get to a tipping point," Barrasa said. "I don't believe in systemic change at a global level. It has to start locally."

-- By Mark Rechtin, executive director and executive editor, S&P Global Mobility

This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.