Mainland China’s leadership in truck and bus exports

Collaborations with international firms and investments in overseas markets have helped Chinese commercial vehicle companies expand their reach.

Mainland China is the world's largest producer and exporter of medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV) weighing more than six metric tons. Mainland China's robust manufacturing capabilities, competitive pricing and ability to meet the needs of different countries drive this success.

Surge in Exports Driven by Competitive Advantages

Because of these strengths, Chinese manufacturers have significantly increased their share of global markets over the last four years.

In 2022, exports of heavy tractor-trucks led this growth, more than doubling from the year before. China's Belt and Road initiatives have further boosted exports, with core export destinations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America. We outline this growth in our MHCV export module, which covers 75 countries.

The Post-Pandemic Export Boom: A Rapid Growth Phase

Since 2021, Mainland China's exports of MHCVs have surged, entering a rapid growth phase following pandemic-related supply chain disruptions that affected overseas manufacturing. While Western OEMs faced a shortage of chips and other core components, many Chinese automakers had domestic access to a complete industrial chain, which helped rapidly increase capacity while Western automakers had to cut production.

From 2021 to 2023, commercial truck exports from Mainland China experienced a remarkable compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.5%, reaching an all-time high in 2023. Heavy-duty trucks (over 15 tons) — which saw a CAGR of 43.6% and accounted for 77.6% of the total export volume in 2023 — primarily drove this growth.

Eastern Europe: A Key Market for Chinese Heavy Trucks

In 2021, demand for Chinese heavy trucks surged by 112% in the Eastern European market, largely due to increased demand from Russia. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine unfolded, all Western auto manufacturers exited the Russian market, which allowed Chinese truck brands to capture a larger share.

Due to changes in Russian tax rules, Russia became the top destination of Chinese MHCV exports from 2021 to 2023. As Russia looks to bolster its economy and infrastructure, demand for Chinese goods — ranging from machinery to consumer products — has surged.

China and Russia have been strengthening their political and economic ties, fostering a more conducive environment for trade. Increased energy exports from Russia to China have also facilitated trade. As a result, MHCV exports to Russia rose by 172% from 2021 to 2022, totalling 25,900 units, with heavy trucks leading this growth.

Top exporters to Russia in 2022 included CNHTC, Hongyan, Jianghuai and Shaanxi Auto Heavy. In 2023, exports to Russia continued to climb, increasing by 90% to surpass 49,300 units.

Projected Export Growth to Russia and Other Eastern Markets

Brands like Dongfeng, FAW, Foton, SANY, and Yutong have also expanded their presence in the Russian market. Based on S&P Global Mobility's November 2024 export forecast, we project exports will rise by 5.7% to 52,200 units, with CNHTC, Dongfeng, FAW and Shaanxi Auto Heavy expected to remain the leading exporters.

ASEAN and Africa: Strengthening Ties and Expanding Market Share

Historically, ASEAN and African countries have been top export destinations of Chinese MHCV manufacturers. Chinese manufacturers now want to capitalize on local government incentives to make their products more competitive and gain more market share.

To do so, Chinese MHCV manufacturers are opening production or assembly units either on their own or in joint venture with local players in these markets, including:

• Yutong, which in collaboration with TC Motor Holding is opening a bus and battery manufacturing unit in Malaysia.
• BYD, which in collaboration with Rever Automotive is opening a truck and bus assembly plant in Thailand.
• King Long, which in collaboration with TC Motor Holding started local assembly of the Nova bus in Vietnam.
• Golden Dragon, which is nearing completion of its assembly unit in Vietnam with a projected capacity of 5,000 buses annually.
• CNHTC and Yutong, which will start local assembly of certain models of trucks and buses, respectively, in South Africa.

Our trucking industry forecast expects most of these manufacturing/ assembly units to become operational by next year, which will lead to decreased exports to these countries from Mainland China (see map, above).

South America: Robust Growth in Exports to the Andean Region

Chinese exports to South American markets, particularly in the Andean region, saw significant growth in 2022 of 62%, primarily driven by increased sales on South America's Pacific coast and in Chile, Colombia and Ecuador.

Manufacturers such as Foton, FAW Jiefang, Jianghuai (JAC) and CNHTC have enhanced their presence in these countries, leading to an impressive 85% rise in MHCV exports from 2021 to 2022.

We anticipate that China will sustain this export level in the coming years. Although we expect exports to the Mercosur region to remain stable, we project a slight increase for Brazil. Overall, South America is poised to continue as the third-largest export market for Chinese trucks and buses, after Russia and ASEAN.

North America: Trade Barriers Limit Growth in the US

In North America, exports to the US — the biggest market for commercial vehicles in the region — will either remain at same level or decrease due to the ongoing trade war with China.

In the short term (2023-2026), we forecast a decrease in exports to European countries and the US as uncertainties over the geopolitical situation and trade barriers hinder imports from Mainland China. However, exports to Mexico will increase and act as bridge between the US and Latin American markets.

Mainland China's Expanding Global Footprint

Mainland China's role as a top exporter and its strong export growth, especially to regions like Russia and South America, highlight its ability to overcome geopolitical challenges and manage supply chain disruptions. Collaborations with local firms in ASEAN and Africa further strengthen China's market penetration and competitiveness.

Although exports to Europe and the US may decrease due to trade tensions, the overall outlook remains positive, with continued growth projected in key regions. As Chinese manufacturers expand their global footprint, they are well-positioned to take advantage of new opportunities in the evolving commercial transportation market.

For model level information, readers can refer to our MHCV Export Module or contact their S&P Global representative.

Download a free sample of the MHCV Export Module

This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.