December 2024 light vehicle production forecast

December 2024 Light Vehicle Production Forecast

Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals, registration data, and sales data to provide the most up-to-date, short-term production forecast available.

Here's a close look at global production data by region and our updated December 2024 production forecast.

Top Takeaways for the Month

As 2024 ends, the auto industry faces ongoing challenges with mixed demand dynamics and inventory management. The forecast now includes the assumption that the incoming Trump administration will increase tariffs to 10% for all countries and 30% for China-specific imports, with exemptions for Canada and Mexico under the USMCA. Expected revisions to US emissions requirements will likely reduce BEV volumes and alter electrification mix. The updated forecast shows near-term upgrades but material downgrades for 2025 and 2026 due to tariff impacts and market conditions.

Regional Highlights:

Europe: Europe's light vehicle production outlook increased by 41,000 units for 2024 but was reduced by 261,000 units for 2025 and 2026. The primary driver for the forecast revision is new tariff assumptions, particularly affecting premium vehicles.

Greater China: China's light vehicle production outlook increased by 150,000 units for 2024 but was reduced by 162,000 units for 2025 and 340,000 units for 2026. China saw strong growth in the new-energy vehicle (NEV) market, with a 53% market share in November 2024. However, economic uncertainties lead to downward revisions for future years.

Japan/Korea: Japan's production outlook was downgraded by 109,000 units for 2025 and 30,000 units for 2026 due to stagnant exports and weak domestic demand. South Korea's production forecast was reduced by 18,000 units for 2024, with further reductions for 2025 and 2026 due to expected tariff impacts.

North America: North America's light vehicle production outlook increased by 23,000 units for 2024 but was reduced by 173,000 units for 2025 and 238,000 units for 2026. Total production is expected to hit 15.5 million units for 2024, but longer-term forecasts are more pessimistic due to inventory management challenges.

South America: South America's light vehicle production outlook increased by 43,000 units for 2024 and 12,000 units for 2025 but was reduced by 23,000 units for 2026. While local production is supported by strong demand in Brazil, future tariff impacts may lead to lower economic growth.

South Asia: South Asia's light vehicle production outlook increased by 50,000 units for 2024 and 1,000 units for 2025, but was reduced by 115,000 units for 2026. Strong production in Vietnam and Malaysia supports the near-term outlook, while concerns over economic growth affect future projections.

Download a free light vehicle production forecast sample here.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.