A perfect storm is brewing for OEMs and electric vehicles (EVs). Momentum is slowing in the transition to EVs and battery-electric vehicle (BEV) penetration is now contracting in every major region. Political and economic disruption along with pushback from the West on Chinese BEV imports are also creating volatility in the market. Furthermore, OEMs must grapple with the dilemma of high BEV production costs and lower profitability.

This Mobility Paper will cover:

• Introduction: Uncertainty clouding the BEV market
• Forecasting: A look into the crystal ball
• Analysis: BEV realities... and opportunities
• Projections: Trends to watch
• Conclusions: Grabbing the bull by its horns

Key Takeaways

• Momentum in the transition to EVs is slowing, and BEV penetration is now contracting in every major region.
• A real concern is political disruption and economic overspill, along with pushback from the West on Chinese imports. The election of Donald Trump to the US Presidency has only heightened this. Red Sea route disruption continues, and it is unclear whether BEV subsidies will return to Germany.
• The Mainland Chinese market continues to be dynamic, with a vehicle trade-in scheme gaining momentum, and domestic brands powering ahead with production.
• Competitiveness has led to an ongoing intense price war. Industry players, however, worry that consumers may adopt a wait-and-see approach.
• For Europe, a major concern is the advent of 2025 CO2 rules and how that will impact the market.
• Innovation is the only way forward in this difficult landscape, with increased investment in technology and scaling as soon as products hit the market-profitability will come from lower per-unit costs.
• OEMs must also continue to integrate their offerings into the communication, connected and entertainment landscape that consumers have become accustomed to living with.

Contributing Editors

• Henner Lehne, Vice President - Vehicle & Powertrain Group, S&P Global Mobility.
• Gao Tao, Manager - Greater China Light Vehicle Production Forecast Lead, S&P Global Mobility.
• Boni Sa, Associate Director - China Automotive Advisory Service, S&P Global Mobility.
• Claire Fang, Senior Research Analyst - Forecast Intelligence and Strategy, S&P Global Mobility.
• Huaibin Lin, Manager - China Light Vehicle Sales Forecast Automotive Lead, S&P Global Mobility.