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The renewable energy industry might be the clear winner in Maine's gubernatorial election, given that Gov. Paul LePage, who is well known for his opposition to the expansion of renewables, has reached the end of his two-consecutive-term limit.

Maine's four-way race to succeed LePage, a Republican, essentially boils down to a contest between Democratic state Attorney General Janet Mills and Republican businessman Shawn Moody. Mills is widely seen as the favorite, with recent polls putting her at an eight- or nine-point lead over Moody, according to poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight. Independent candidates Alan Caron and Terry Hayes register little support.

Both Mills and Moody are generally pro-renewable energy, said Jeremy Payne, executive director of the Maine Renewable Energy Association, and renewable project developers are "cautiously optimistic" that the upcoming change in leadership will benefit the sector no matter who wins. The election promises to unleash between $3 billion and $5 billion of investments in grid-scale renewables that have been waiting for a more favorable regulatory climate ever since LePage assumed office in 2011, Payne said in an interview.

"What the [renewables] industry wants is a fair shake," Payne said. "They want reasonable, predictable regulatory outcomes. That doesn't mean every project gets a yes, but it certainly [means] the industry can't feel like the chief executive is putting his or her thumb on the scale in opposition to their investments and their developments generally. And that's been the case for the better part of eight years."

Wind on the table

The candidates' differences on energy policy were highlighted during a recent televised debate. Mills, who supports offshore wind development, said she would rescind outright LePage's January moratorium on new onshore wind developments in the state. Moody said he would continue the moratorium in order to protect scenic views and tourism. An S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis from February concluded that the moratorium has put on hold or otherwise jeopardized up to 2,763 MW of planned or operating wind capacity in Maine.

Payne said Moody seems to be "looking for ... a scalpel" to restrict the siting of wind projects in certain areas, and the renewables industry is optimistic that it can persuade him to whittle down LePage's executive order from an indiscriminate "sledgehammer" to something more measured.

Mills, meanwhile, supports continuing to subsidize biomass power plants in an effort to save Maine's uneconomic logging industry, while Moody does not. The state passed a law in 2016 under which 80 MW of biomass generation would be funded by taxpayers through a two-year, roughly $13.5 million subsidy.

Mostly wood-burning, carbon-emitting biomass generation made up 88% of the state's renewable portfolio standard obligations in 2015, with wind power supplying another 11%. In total, over 99% of the state's renewable generation is supplied from in-state facilities. Biomass provides roughly 30% of Maine's total generation, but with a push by lawmakers to increase the state's wind capacity, wind generation is projected to increase its share from about 15% to over 40% by 2025.

New PUC chair

Maine's next governor also will be responsible for nominating a new chairman of the state Public Utilities Commission for a six-year term. The current chair is set to step down in March 2019, and Mills has said she will nominate a pro-renewables replacement, while Moody would expand the PUC from three to five members and have one of the new commissioners come from a renewable energy background.

Skeptical of the benefits of renewables and concerned about a financial shift of electric rates from renewable owners to non-renewable consumers, LePage has clashed repeatedly with both the PUC and the state legislature over energy policy. For instance, LePage pushed for a rapid end to net metering compensation for solar generation rather than a slower step-down as sought by the PUC. He also opposed lawmakers' efforts to widen access to community solar and overturn a 2017 regulatory order that allows utilities to charge solar producers for gross output.

Although the push by Moody to put a voice for renewable energy on the PUC may indicate that he does not intend to simply continue LePage's policies, it is difficult to say how sharply his administration would differ from the current governor. Maine "cannot subsidize high-priced sources of energy, or special interests," Moody has said, even while acknowledging that renewables will play an important role in the state's long-term energy strategy.

Also at stake in the race is Central Maine Power Co.'s proposed 1,200-MW New England Clean Energy Connect, a high-voltage, direct-current transmission line that would deliver imported hydropower from Hydro-Québec in Canada to Massachusetts utilities. Mills has expressed concerns about the potential environmental impact of the $1.1 billion project by the Avangrid Inc. subsidiary as well as skepticism regarding its promised benefits. Moody said he would support the proposed 145-mile line if it brings benefits to Maine, especially lower energy costs, and avoids long-term damage to whitewater rafting and tourism.