This article is the first of a two-part series on the potential for US elections in 2024 to impact campaigns to block restrictions on natural gas use in the building sector. See the second part here.

As Election Day approaches, the path to blocking building electrification mandates through legislation appears challenging in many US states.

A nearly five-year legislative campaign has been fruitful for energy choice advocates: 26 states have passed laws prohibiting policies that restrict natural gas use in buildings. And gas utilities, homebuilders and other advocates for fuel choice are still trying to expand the policy firewall that now stretches across much of the southern and interior US.

But these gas ban preemption bills have often stalled in politically divided states, and there are few states left where proponents can secure veto-proof support from lawmakers.

At the same time, building decarbonization policy is evolving beyond gas bans, and in some states, the battle over electrification mandates has moved to the courts and the ballot box.

2022 midterms set the stage

Since the 2022 midterm elections, six states have passed laws prohibiting gas bans, breaking a 19-month dry spell. However, elections only meaningfully impacted passage in one of those states, North Carolina, where Republicans slightly grew their majorities in 2022 and ultimately clinched supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly, allowing them to override a second veto by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.

The other four bills largely advanced after the elections and in states with longstanding Republican trifectas in the governors' offices and legislatures: Idaho, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. While a majority of Democrats supported the bills in some jurisdictions — including in North Dakota and South Dakota — liberal lawmakers have more often opposed them.

State elections in 2022 and 2023 created more headwinds than tailwinds in states considering preemption bills. Democratic gubernatorial candidates prevailed in several of the states, and Democrats flipped some of the chambers.

Those outcomes were significant in Wisconsin, where Democratic Gov. Tony Evers vetoed a preemption bill in 2023, and in Pennsylvania, where the Democratic-controlled House has not taken up a bill passed in the GOP-controlled Senate.

Pathway exists for Badger State

With Wisconsin Republicans just shy of a veto-proof two-thirds majority in the State Assembly, the party appears to have the best shot at passing a preemption bill. However, following the redrawing of legislative districts in February, Wisconsin's 2024 elections are both more competitive and more contested, according to John Johnson, a research fellow at the Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education at the Marquette Law School.

Preventing a supermajority in the Assembly will be critical for Democrats, who voted unanimously against the preemption bill passed by the Senate's GOP supermajority. Without a veto-proof majority, the GOP-controlled Assembly tabled the bill during the 2024 session.

The Wisconsin Senate is one of just two chambers where no Democrat supported the legislation. Asked about the party's united front, Jennifer Giegerich, government affairs director at Wisconsin Conservation Voters, noted that Democrats introduced a package of 20 climate bills in 2023, but the GOP did not advance any part of it.

"So the idea that the one energy bill that Democrats would join Republicans on was this bill was, I think, politically never going to happen," Giegerich told S&P Global Commodity Insights. "It not only restricts local governments, but it also restricts state agencies from looking at policy."

Passage doubtful in divided states

The path looks daunting in other states where gas ban preemption bills are active or were recently in play.

In Pennsylvania and Michigan, the lower chambers are tightly divided and every member is up for reelection. But both states have Democratic governors and require a two-thirds majority of elected representatives to override a veto.

The outcome of elections could be impactful. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were among the top 10 states for combined residential and commercial gas consumption in 2022, the last year for which US government data was available.

In Maine and New Mexico, every seat in the Senate and House is up for grabs, and there is a lower bar to override a veto: a two-thirds majority of present representatives. However, Democrats have substantial statehouse majorities and occupy the governor's mansion in both states.

Bipartisanship could be key

Still, some stakeholders see a path forward. Matthew Gonzales, executive director for the Southwest Region at Consumer Energy Alliance, said he would like to bring forward another gas ban preemption bill in New Mexico after an earlier effort stalled in 2023.

That bill had bipartisan sponsorship and exited the Democrat-chaired House Energy, Environment and Natural Resources Committee with a favorable recommendation. Because of New Mexico's short legislative session, it can take several sessions to pass legislation, and this time, Gonzales said he would focus on amplifying the voices of local champions for energy choice.

"There's a lot of people around the state that want their access to natural gas preserved," Gonzales told Commodity Insights. "Not everyone uses it, but they do believe that it is fundamental that we give communities the resources they need and the types of energy they need in the forms that they need it."

Yet Gonzales said November's elections will influence his decision. He will assess the legislature's makeup before moving forward and noted that a preemption bill will need a new Democratic sponsor after Rep. Harry Garcia lost a June primary.