US spot gas prices drop YOY in September, led by Northeast

The average prices of natural gas for day-ahead delivery fell year on year in September across all US regions, led by plunging prices in the Northeast.

Spot prices in the Northeast sank 74.72% year over year to an average of $1.730/MMBtu in September, marking both the largest decline and the lowest average price among all regions. Compared with August, Northeast gas prices were up 9.35%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

All other regions saw declines both month over month and year over year in September.

The US Gulf Coast had the highest average price among all regions in September, at $2.485/MMBtu, down 0.20% from its August average and down 66.59% year on year.

The West posted the largest month-over-month decrease, plunging 25.29% from August to an average of $2.379/MMBtu, which was down 64.53% from the year-ago average.

Midcontinent prices fell 67.11% year over year and 3.45% month on month to an average of $2.239/MMBtu.

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Hub results

All natural gas hubs in the Northeast posted steep year-over-year price drops in September, with the declines ranging from 63.17% to 79.85%.

Most Northeast hubs recorded spot gas price indexes below $1.80/MMBtu. The Tennessee at Dracut hub reported the highest index for the month at $2.755/MMBtu, down 63.17% year over year. In September 2022, most hubs showed prices above $6/MMBtu.

Supply forecasts

Most shale regions in the US are expected to see lower gas production in October compared with the prior month, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly "Drilling Productivity Report" released Sept. 18. The EIA projected that total US shale gas production would decrease from 98.71 Bcf/d in September to 98.37 Bcf/d in October.

The EIA expects gas production in Appalachia, the region that produces the most shale gas in the US, to decline from 35.86 Bcf/d in September to 35.72 Bcf/d in October. Production in the Haynesville Shale region is forecast to drop from about 16.30 Bcf/d to about 16.20 Bcf/d in October.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.

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