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US retail sales rebound in November; 1 retailer files for bankruptcy

US retail sales found renewed strength in November as consumers boosted their spending ahead of the holiday season.

Retail and food services sales grew 0.3% from the prior month following a revised 0.2% monthly drop in October, according to US Census Bureau data published Dec. 14. The total beat economists' expectations of a 0.1% decrease, according to data compiled by Econoday.

As the median default risk for retailers decreased, just one retailer sought bankruptcy protection through the month ended Dec. 14, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

Retail sales

US retail and food services sales in November came to $705.69 billion, up from a revised $703.75 billion in October, according to advance estimate data provided by the Census Bureau. Sales for November were up 4.1% year over year, while total sales from September through November increased 3.4% from the year-ago period.

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Sales at food services and drinking places increased 1.6% over the previous month, while sporting goods, hobby and bookstore sales grew 1.3%.

Gasoline station sales fell 2.9% in November, while department stores recorded a 2.5% drop in sales for the month.

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Electronics and appliance stores saw the greatest growth in sales on an annual basis at 12%, followed by 11.3% for food services and drinking places and 10.9% for health and personal care stores.

Bankruptcies

E-commerce and technology platform provider Nogin Inc. was the only retailer to file for bankruptcy over the month ended Dec. 14, up from zero bankruptcies over the previous month.

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As of Dec. 14, 26 retailers have sought bankruptcy protection in 2023. That number is higher than the previous two years' totals but below the filings made from 2015 to 2020.

Default risk

Median default risk across all retail categories totaled 2.5% as of Dec. 14, down from 2.9% in mid-November, according to Market Intelligence's Market Signal Probability of Default model.

While drug retail remained the industry at the greatest risk of default, the category's risk also dropped to 10.0% from 10.5% a month earlier. Personal care product retailers, home furnishing retail and computer and electronics retail all saw their default risk ease over the month.

Household appliances was the sole category to register an increase in default risk, rising slightly to 1.4% from 1.3%.

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Scores produced by the model represent the odds of default within a year and are based primarily on the volatility of share prices for public companies in the sector, accounting for country- and industry-related risks.