Party control of Congress after the U.S. midterm elections will be the biggest factor in setting the direction of national climate and energy legislation over the next two years.

. . This article is part of a package of news and research content that will explore how the 2022 midterm elections may impact the U.S. energy and mining industries. Federal, state contests weigh on future energy mix Climate law top target as GOP readies energy oversight agenda Federal power policy focus shifting to agency action SEC climate risk rule on GOP chopping block Energy policy battles play out in key races for Congress Hydrogen lawmaking gains traction in statehouses State elections could redraw battle lines over gas bans Makeup of next US Congress weighs on permitting reform push .

But the outcome of individual races will decide who sits on and helps lead key committees and whether champions of recent energy policies continue to have a say.

As of Oct. 7, Democrats are slightly favored to lead the U.S. Senate, according to simulations from FiveThirtyEight and The Economist. The chamber is currently split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris providing a tie-breaking vote if needed.

A sustained Democratic majority in the Senate would help protect the Biden administration's energy and climate agenda in Congress, including its push to decarbonize the power sector. It would also keep existing committee leaders, such as Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., in possession of the gavel.

But the GOP stands a strong chance of flipping the U.S. House of Representatives and could also take the Senate, allowing them to give more attention to growing domestic oil and gas supplies.

A Republican majority in either chamber could also conduct rigorous oversight of the hundreds of billions of dollars that Democrats and President Joe Biden authorized through recent legislation to drive the energy transition. Oversight of that spending could be a particular focus for a restored Republican majority since GOP lawmakers would likely lack the veto-proof majorities needed to enact legislation that goes against Biden's agenda.

Democrats hope to keep, widen Senate majority

To advance their platform more fully, Democrats need to both maintain and expand their Senate majority to prevent swing voters such as Manchin from blocking more aggressive climate legislation, clean energy advocates say. A bigger majority could also allow Democrats to change Senate filibuster rules so they can pass more legislation with support from only a simple majority.

"It's just so important that we not only keep the 50 senators we have on the Democratic, pro-climate side but actually add more and have a real working pro-climate majority," said Craig Auster, vice president of political affairs at the League of Conservation Voters.

The legislative agenda under Democrats is expected to focus on ensuring that federal dollars made available through the newly signed Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, are dispensed and maximized to benefit climate and environmental justice goals, with a focus on frontline communities that have borne the brunt of pollution and climate change impacts.

As the battle for control of Congress heats up, toss-up Senate races in Nevada and Georgia are being closely watched, with implications for energy and climate policy.

In Nevada, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat who was elected to the Senate in 2016 and serves on the Senate energy panel, pushed to extend the federal investment tax credit for solar energy, a vision that was accomplished through the IRA. She also worked to block the development of a long-term nuclear waste storage repository at the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada, a policy position shared by her Senate opponent, Republican Adam Laxalt.

While attorney general of Nevada, Laxalt worked to prevent the U.S. Department of Energy under the Trump administration from reviving the Yucca Mountain project and sued the agency when uranium shipments entered the state. Laxalt has also criticized Democratic efforts to increase reliance on renewable energy, saying solar and wind power are "simply not enough" to meet consumers' energy needs.

In Georgia, Raphael Warnock, a Democrat who won a special election in January 2021, is also locked in a tight race. Like Cortez Masto, Warnock has been a booster for the domestic solar industry, sponsoring legislation to provide tax credits for the full solar manufacturing supply chain that was rolled into the IRA.

Warnock is running against Republican Herschel Walker, an entrepreneur and former football star who has criticized the nearly $370 billion in climate and energy investments in the IRA, saying "a lot of [that] money, it's going to trees."

In addition to Walker, other first-time candidates for public office are running for Senate in key states, and how active they would be on energy and climate issues is uncertain.

"There's a number of races [where] first-time candidates are running ... just unknown entities," said Heather Reams, president of the conservative-leaning advocacy group Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. "There's not a lot of track record to look at. That's a very different dynamic than we've seen before."

Reams highlighted races for open Senate seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Ohio, venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance is the GOP candidate to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, running against U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, a Democrat. In the Pennsylvania race, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz is the Republican contender for the seat currently held by outgoing Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa. The Democratic candidate is John Fetterman, currently Pennsylvania's lieutenant governor.

Despite their lack of past political experience, frequent GOP allies are siding with many of those candidates on energy.

"There is no race in the country with a starker policy contrast, and specifically an energy policy contrast, than the contest between Dr. Oz and John Fetterman for U.S. Senate," Ashlee Rich Stephenson, senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement.

Stephenson said Oz "supports an 'all of the above' energy plan and would fast-track pipeline completion, expanding export capacity," while Fetterman "has flip-flopped on hydraulic fracking, initially supporting it but then signing a pledge to ban fracking."

GOP eyes House flip

If Republicans take one or both chambers, infrastructure permitting reform and a focus on an all-of-the-above energy approach are expected, said Kellie Donnelly, former chief counsel for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

"Republicans are not anti-renewable. They understand that constituents want cleaner energy resources, and they understand the economic development that comes with these projects in their districts and their states," Donnelly said. "But they also want to see domestic production from oil and gas. They want to push forward nuclear and [carbon capture utilization and storage] and other all-of-the-above energy technologies."

For now, Republicans stand a stronger chance of clinching House control. Several candidates in tight House races have also laid out energy positions that contrast with their opponents.

In New Mexico, outspoken oil and gas industry proponent U.S. Rep. Yvette Herrell, R-N.M., is defending her seat from progressive challenger Gabe Vasquez, who is campaigning on a plan to push the state toward more clean energy development.

While Herrell took the Biden administration to task for not holding oil and gas lease sales and allegedly holding up drilling permits, Vasquez has promised to "fight any efforts to sell off our public lands to the highest bidder."

Rep. Kim Schrier, D-Wash., who sits on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, was elected in the 2018 blue wave, flipping a seat in Washington state otherwise held by Republicans since 1983. Republicans have been eager to regain the district and have tried to point the finger at Schrier and Democratic policies for high inflation and gasoline prices.

Schrier has advocated for immediate action on climate change, a transition to 100% clean energy, and redirecting subsidies for the oil and gas industry to renewables.

READ MORE about the impact of the U.S. midterms on our sectors in this Issue in Focus.

In contrast, Republican challenger Matt Larkin told a local radio station that climate change is "certainly not the priority" as voters want cheaper energy and public safety. He contended that the U.S. must "free up domestic energy reserves" and better use domestic energy supplies to end U.S. reliance on foreign energy.

Incumbent Democrats in several races have seen redistricting change the demographics of their district’s constituencies to align more with conservative views.

Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., is trying to win a redrawn swing district in California that is often looked to as a bellwether for national politics.

As the head of the House Natural Resources subcommittee on oversight and investigations, Porter was a vocal critic of oil companies as gasoline prices soared in her state and across the country. But Republican and former California Assemblyman Scott Baugh, who is eyeing her seat, has pushed back on more aggressive climate policies that he views as threatening to jobs and economic growth.

Redistricting in Ohio also put the chair of the House Appropriations energy and water subcommittee, Democrat Marcy Kaptur, in a tough spot. But blunders by Republican opponent J.R. Majewski, including reports that he lied about serving in Afghanistan, appear to have significantly improved her odds of retaining her seat. Kaptur was first elected to Congress in 1982.

Other tight races have Republican contenders endorsed by former President Donald Trump that could get a boost from his continued popularity in conservative circles. One is Jim Bognet, who is again running against energy appropriator Matt Cartwright for the northeastern Pennsylvania seat he lost by only 3.5 points in 2020.

And a new House seat in western Montana pits Republican Ryan Zinke, who served as secretary of the Interior during the Trump administration, against clean energy attorney Monica Tranel. Zinke's campaign has described Tranel as an energy killer with far-flung environmental views, while Tranel has pointed to the numerous ethics investigations that plagued Zinke's tenure in Trump's Cabinet and criticized him for being too friendly with fossil fuel companies.

S&P Global Commodity Insights reporter Jasmin Melvin produces content for distribution on Platts Dimensions Pro. S&P Global Commodity Insights is owned by S&P Global Inc.