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US coal exports surge 25% YOY in Q4 2023 as volumes to India nearly double

Total fourth-quarter US coal exports surged 25.0% year over year in 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

Buyers in India led the surge, with a 99.3% increase in coal volumes obtained from US suppliers. India was the top buyer of US coal in the fourth quarter of 2023, scooping up 7.1 million metric tons of the total 24.1 MMt in US coal exports. China, Morocco and Turkey increased their imports by triple-digit percentages year over year, with Morocco increasing its fourth-quarter imports by 853.3%. On the other hand, buyers in the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, France and Spain pulled back on US coal exports compared to the same period of 2022.

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As domestic power generators continue to retire coal plants, exports are expected to grow as a share of US coal sales. However, US coal exports are also expected to fall 7% to 95 million short tons in 2024 and remain near that level in 2025, the US Energy Information Administration estimated in its latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook" report released in early February.

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Pennsylvania-based coal producer Consol Energy Inc. recently reported that it sold more coal into industrial export markets in 2023 than to domestic electricity generation markets for the first time. Overall, coal exports accounted for 70% of Consol's recurring revenues and other income in the year, the company noted on its Feb. 6 earnings call.

"We are expanding our reach in industrial and crossover metallurgical markets. Last year, we sold approximately 10 million Pennsylvania Mining Complex [short] tons into the industrial market, which was double the number of tons we shipped into this market in 2022," Mitesh Thakkar, Consol CFO and president, said on the call. "We believe there are incremental opportunities to expand into this market, specifically to Middle Eastern, African and South Asian countries that are in structural growth mode."

East Coast ports dominate exports of US coal volumes. Producers shipped 8.1 MMt of coal from Norfolk, Va., in the recent quarter, increasing 12.8% year over year, and 7.0 MMt of coal from Baltimore, up 47.2%.

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Asia was the top destination for coal leaving from Norfolk and Baltimore in the fourth quarter of 2023, with Europe coming in second for both ports.

The only ports reporting a year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter coal volumes were San Francisco and Cleveland.

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Metallurgical coal is primarily used in steelmaking and generally fetches a higher price and better margins than the thermal coal used to generate electricity.

Exports of metallurgical coal rose at the US' three largest coal ports in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. Producers shipped 18.5% more metallurgical coal from Norfolk in the recent quarter, while metallurgical coal exports out of New Orleans jumped 37% and exports out of Baltimore increased only slightly, by 0.4% year over year.

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