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US bank price to adjusted tangible book values enter 2023 on down note

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US bank price to adjusted tangible book values enter 2023 on down note

U.S. bank stocks ended 2022 with a whimper as nearly the entire sector experienced a downturn in December.

The 209 banks in the S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis returned a median of negative 6.6% last month, outpacing the S&P U.S. BMI Banks index's negative 7.6% return but trailing the S&P 500's negative 5.8% return. Just a dozen of the 209 banks had a positive total return in December. Dallas-based Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. was the lone bank in the analysis with greater than $20 billion in total assets as of Sept. 30, 2022, that saw its stock price go up last month.

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S&P Global Market Intelligence analyzes U.S. banks trading on the Nasdaq, NYSE or NYSEAM with total assets of greater than $3 billion in the most recent quarter available. Excludes banks in the mutual holding company ownership structure, other operating subsidiaries, and mutual bank conversions until financial data is available for the quarter following the conversion date. Adjusted tangible book value is calculated as the sum of tangible common equity and loss reserves less nonperforming assets and loans 90 or more days past due but still accruing interest divided by common shares outstanding.

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Bottom 20 valuation banks

Citigroup Inc. was the cheapest bank in the analysis by price to adjusted tangible book value, or P/ATBV, throughout 2022. Its valuation to close the year was 53.0%, which was its lowest month-end valuation in 2022 except for 48.8% at Sept. 30.

La Jolla, Calif.-based Silvergate Capital Corp. has been far and away the weakest market performer in the analysis for the last two months. Its stock was down 36.6% in December, following November's 51.7% decline. As of Dec. 30, 2022, Silvergate's P/ATBV was 58.5%, ranking No. 2 on the list.

Dallas-based First Foundation Inc. and Seattle-based HomeStreet Inc. were the only two banks on the bottom 20 valuation list with a positive monthly return.

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Entries and exits

Leawood, Kan.-based CrossFirst Bankshares Inc.; Martinsville, Va.-based Carter Bankshares Inc.; and Glen Head, N.Y.-based First of Long Island Corp. all entered the bottom 20 valuation list in December. The other two entries — Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. and Signature Bank — are based in New York and held a significant amount of digital asset deposits at Sept. 30, 2022.

The exits were Troy, Mich.-based Flagstar Bancorp Inc., which was acquired by Hicksville, N.Y.-based New York Community Bancorp Inc. on Dec. 1, 2022; Fairfield, N.J.-based Kearny Financial Corp., which is aiming to cut overhead expenses; Dallas-based Hilltop Holdings Inc.; Topeka, Kan.-based Capitol Federal Financial Inc.; and Texas Capital.

SNL Image * Explore S&P Global Market Intelligence's calculations for price to adjusted tangible book value as of Dec. 30.
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Puerto Rican banks

The three operating public banks based in Puerto Rico — First BanCorp., OFG Bancorp and Popular Inc. — have had wildly divergent P/ATBV trends during the last year. OFG Bancorp has tracked the industry median fairly closely, ending each month within 13 percentage points of that median. On the other hand, First BanCorp. and Popular are trading at high premiums.

First BanCorp. did not trade too far above the industry median through the end of the first quarter of 2022, but since then, has traded at a percentage-point premium ranging from 44 to 145. Popular has traded at a premium valuation all year, peaking at 295 percentage points higher than the industry median at the end of November 2022.

Both banks reported substantial net unrealized losses on securities in 2022, which drags down the tangible common equity portion of the P/ATBV calculation and results in an elevated valuation. In the third quarter of 2022, net unrealized losses exceeded $2.5 billion at Popular and were $866.1 million at First BanCorp.

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