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Trudeau's ambitious climate plan stokes optimism in clean energy sector

An aggressive emissions-reduction strategy unveiled by Canada's government is being hailed as "historically and globally significant" by climate and clean energy industry groups.

Underpinning the Dec. 11 update to the Trudeau government's climate action strategy was a plan to jump a federal levy on emissions to C$170/tonne within a decade, more than triple the existing carbon tax.

The increase will make up part of C$15 billion in planned spending that will see government funds pumped into low-emitting energy production, electric vehicle production, and increased use of hydrogen in home heating and transportation. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority government has worked to burnish its environmental credentials in order to meet global emissions-reductions goals and in advance of an election that will take place before the revised tax hikes kick in.

"The updated climate plan ... is historically and globally significant," said Merran Smith, executive director of environmental think tank Clean Energy Canada. "It's a comprehensive and honest plan to get Canada to beat its 2030 climate target. The plan will also retool and position Canada's economy to be increasingly competitive in a low-carbon world."

Trudeau's ambitious climate plan will face hurdles before it can become reality. His minority government must convince members of at least one other party in Canada's Parliament to side with it before its proposals can become law, and depending how the vote is framed, its outcome could topple his government. The federal carbon tax would only be levied in provinces that the government deems have inadequate emissions-reductions plans, and three provinces have appeals pending in the Supreme Court of Canada, claiming the federal government overstepped its constitutional authority.

Still, Trudeau is committed to the climate action plan and the changes to the tax. He will face a general election by 2023, when the increases to the levy are set to begin.

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Canada's oil producers had a muted response to the climate strategy but praised changes to the proposed Clean Fuel Standard.
Source: Suncor Energy Inc.

Since Trudeau was first elected in 2015, Canada has made steps away from its primary economic drivers — exports of energy, minerals and lumber — toward lower-emitting sectors. Canada now produces electric buses and is slated to begin production of electric cars. The energy-production sector has embraced carbon capture and sequestration technology, among other steps to reduce emissions intensity. And new hydrogen, nuclear and hydroelectric projects are underway to clean up the utility sector. The latest plan earmarked C$300 million on top of already-pledged spending to help remote communities wean themselves from heavily polluting power sources.

"By making a long-term commitment to regular and transparent increases in Canada's carbon price, Canada is sending a clear signal to investors in the electricity sector, and across the economy, that the time to invest in low- and no-carbon solutions is now — and that the rate of investment needs to be accelerated," Robert Hornung, president and CEO of the Canadian Renewable Energy Association, said in a statement.

"We were also pleased to see a commitment of (C)$300 million to support remote communities in moving away from polluting and expensive diesel generation, believing as we do that wind, solar and energy storage technologies can play an important role in meeting that objective," Hornung said.

The industry group that represents Canada's biggest oil and natural gas producers, which was frequently at odds with the Trudeau government during its initial term in office, had a muted response to the climate plan. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers praised a decision by the government to limit its Clean Fuel Standard to liquid fuels like gasoline and diesel while exempting gaseous fuels like natural gas, which are vital to home heating in Canada's northern climate.

"New technologies and innovation, particularly those developed by the natural gas and oil industry, will play a major role in ensuring Canada can meet its domestic emissions-reduction goals while contributing to global emission reductions by providing lower emission natural gas and oil to world markets," association President and CEO Tim McMillan said in a Dec. 11 statement. "We will continue to work with government to ensure that our industry can continue its environmental leadership while providing good-paying jobs to Canadians, and driving the recovery of Canada's economy."

The nation's largest oil sands companies, Suncor Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., are working to cut emissions at production facilities and increasing carbon offsets. Suncor-owned Petro-Canada operates Canada's only coast-to-coast network of electric vehicle charging stations. Canadian Natural uses one of the world's largest carbon capture and storage facilities to bury carbon from part of its operations. Both companies will be affected by increased carbon taxes, although they have already started adapting to a legislated cap on increased emissions from the oil sands.

A report released by the Canada Energy Regulator prior to the unveiling of the new tax plan estimated oil sands production will continue to grow through 2029. That report estimated that the government would miss its target of net-zero emissions by 2050 without taking further action. The latest actions by the Trudeau government, if enacted, would bring Canada's policies in line with its largest trading partners and help with the expected energy transition, Clean Energy Canada's Smith said.

"With a Biden presidency kicking off the new year and game-changing clean stimulus plans from countries like Germany, the U.K., and South Korea, it's clear that Canada must compete on climate if it's to compete economically into the future," Smith said.