China's too-big-to-fail lenders will likely sell senior nonpreferred bonds over the next year to fill an estimated $550 billion shortfall in their capacity to absorb losses, according to S&P Global Ratings.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp., Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. narrowed their total loss-absorbing capital, or TLAC, shortfall to 3.7 trillion yuan from an estimated 6 trillion yuan in 2020, a Jan. 18 report said.
The so-called big four Chinese lenders are classified as global systemically important banks, or G-SIBs, by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and are required to hold TLAC equal to 16% of risk-weighted assets by Jan. 1, 2025. To meet the requirement, Ratings expects the lenders to issue a combination of traditional regulatory capital instruments alongside a new class of bond.
"Senior nonpreferred instruments could comprise around 40% of total TLAC by the time the requirement becomes operative. This proportion is similar to that of peers in developed economies that began using the new instrument a few years back," Ratings said.
G-SIB scores are determined by assessing large globally active banks in five equally weighted categories: size, interconnectedness, substitutability, complexity and cross-border activity. Final scores, measured in basis points, put banks in buckets that determine their G-SIB surcharge — the additional capital they must hold because of their systemic importance.
Wider options
Regulators in China issued directives widening the channels for TLAC-eligible issuance from these banks last year, according to the Ratings report. The Basel-based Financial Stability Board lowered China Construction Bank to bucket 1 on the G-SIB list, from bucket 2, which in turn reduced its capital-buffer requirement and alleviated the capital shortfall Chinese G-SIBs are facing.
G-SIBs increased their loss-absorbing capital bases as part of reforms following the 2008 global financial crisis. China, as an emerging-market economy, had a later deadline, Ratings said. Loss-absorbing capital is not paid back in the event of major losses at banks as it is used to absorb the losses and reduce the possibility of governments having to bail out the institutions.
Chinese banking system assets were 344.8 trillion yuan, or about three times the country's annual GDP, as of 2021-end, the Ratings report said. While the Chinese government remains highly supportive of domestic banks, that does not mean the entire system would be bailed out in the event of a crisis, Ratings said, adding that the government's vast resources could be outmatched by contagion effects of a massive systemic crisis.
"New TLAC-eligible issuance might largely be purchased by other domestic financial institutions — adding to potential contagion," it said.
As of Jan. 18, US$1 was equivalent to 6.75 Chinese yuan.