A failure to contain the coronavirus epidemic could put pressure on smaller health insurers in the U.S. and push some to insolvency, Virginia Insurance Commissioner Scott White said.

Referring to efforts to "flatten the curve" of coronavirus cases, White said, "To the extent the flattening does occur, I think it's safe to say there will be few if any immediate solvency issues for the industry. The question is what happens if the flattening does not occur in the near term."

Speaking during a virtual National Association of Insurance Commissioners meeting March 20, White, who chairs the NAIC's financial condition committee, said the healthcare system could be overwhelmed with patients. He compared the current virus to the Spanish flu, which began in the spring of 1918, lasted for more than two years and was blamed for some 50 million deaths.

If the flattening does not occur, "it's likely that some of the small health insurers might become financially stressed, perhaps even become insolvent," he said.

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Speaking on the impact of claims, Scott said it was likely, although not certain, that larger, more highly capitalized companies that write much of the health coverage in the U.S. would likely survive a pandemic even of the size currently being projected. He also said it is likely that the weakest carriers, regardless of sector, might have a "little bit of trouble."

The potential impact to insurers from the financial market side, however, is less certain, although White said it would appear some of the "aggressive" policy moves taken by the government have caused some of the turmoil in the markets to somewhat subside for now. Further drops in interest rates are a long-term issue, and the consequent hit to earnings will likely pressure insurers to invest more aggressively and in complex securities, he added.

"I think it's important to emphasize to everyone the current financial strength and resiliency of the industry as a whole," White said. "Even under a Spanish flu-type scenario, we don't think they would be forced to liquidate assets whose value may be depressed for some period."