There is little sign of a slowdown in U.S. seaborne import growth in February. Panjiva's data shows total shipments climbed 29.3% year over year and by 20.1% versus the same period in 2019. Imports of containerized freight climbed 20.0% year over year and by 15.0% compared to 2019, continuing an unprecedented sixth straight month of double-digit growth. Shipments in January and February combined (to scrub the effect of the timing of the Lunar New Year on imports from Asia) were 17.9% higher year over year.
That is likely to mean little respite for U.S. seaports that have experienced ongoing congestion, with resulting elevated costs for cargo owners, throughout the fourth quarter of 2020 and now into the first quarter of 2021. That confirms the prognosis from many in the logistics industry — most recently including Kuehne + Nagel International AG, as outlined in Panjiva's March 4 research — that congestion issues will continue through to the summer.
The expansion in shipments, as in previous months, has been down to an improvement in shipments from China, which rose 54.1% year over year. The Lunar New Year in 2020 would have depressed the imports arriving in February of that year. Shipments in February 2021 were a still considerable 23.8% higher than a year earlier. Imports in January and February combined increased 36.0% year over year.
Imports from Asia excluding China continued to slow, with shipments rising just 7.2% year over year, the first single-digit growth month since August 2020. That was likely the result of a slump in shipments from Japan and Singapore of 39.1% and 8.3%, respectively.
The downturn in imports from Japan was driven by a slide in imports linked to automakers, including Toyota Motor Corp. and Subaru Corp., as well as construction-equipment maker Kubota Corp., that may be linked to semiconductor-related shortages. Shipments from Europe remained robust with growth of 11.5%, being somewhat slower than the prior months. German export managers' confidence appears warranted.
At the industry level, the leading source of growth in absolute terms was once again in the consumer discretionary sector, with imports that grew 38.2% year over year in February and by 31.8% year over year in January and February combined. Continued demand for consumer goods, particularly durables including household appliances, is expected to continue at 24.4% growth in the first half of 2021, according to the National Retail Federation.
The growth in imports of consumer discretionary products was broad-based in the first two months of the year, including a 28.5% increase in consumer electronics despite the emergent semiconductor shortages, and a 41.8% increase in home furnishings. Even the apparel sector returned to growth with a 12.8% rise in February, bringing the first-quarter-to-date total to a 4.8% improvement.
Imports of healthcare and consumer staples (food and home/personal care) have unsurprisingly remained robust during the continued pandemic, with an expansion of 46.3% and 38.2% year over year, respectively, in February.
The industrials sector also remained robust with growth of 19.2% year over year in February. That includes improved growth rates in industrial machinery, agricultural machinery and construction equipment/trucks, indicating continued capital expenditure confidence. A 21.9% rise in imports of metals and a more modest 6.3% increase in electrical component shipments would suggest manufacturing is still expanding, too.
Christopher Rogers is a senior researcher at Panjiva, which is a business line of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. This content does not constitute investment advice, and the views and opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Links are current at the time of publication. S&P Global Market Intelligence is not responsible if those links are unavailable later.