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S&P Global Ratings downgrades Cameroon, revises Ethiopia's outlook to negative

S&P Global Ratings downgraded its long-term foreign- and local-currency ratings on Cameroon to B- from B and revised Ethiopia's outlook to negative from stable.

The rating agency also affirmed Cameroon's short-term ratings at B and revised the outlook to stable from negative. It also affirmed Ethiopia's long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at B/B.

"Our stable outlook balances Cameroon's robust economic growth prospects against risks stemming from a rising stock of external public debt and a volatile security situation in the Anglophone regions," S&P Global Ratings said.

S&P Global Ratings expects the coronavirus pandemic and oil price slump to heighten risks already present in Cameroon's twin deficits. It expects Brent crude to average around $30 per barrel in 2020, which would drag down oil revenues, while supply-chain disruptions and containment measures due to the pandemic would weigh on non-oil revenues.

Moreover, socio-political tensions in Cameroon's Northwest and Southwest Anglophone regions continue to threaten the country's economic stability, according to S&P Global Ratings. However, the rating agency still sees average real GDP growth to come in at 3.6% over the forecast horizon.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia's economy is forecast to expand 5.5% on average over 2020-2023, down from 9% in 2015-2019.

The coronavirus pandemic coupled with locust attacks would affect Ethiopia's agricultural, travel and tourism sectors, which "could pose significant pressure on low foreign exchange reserves, while external financing needs and public debt service costs will remain high," S&P Global Ratings warned.

The rating agency also expects Ethiopia's current account deficit to stay above 7.0% of GDP in 2020 and 2021, before falling back to about 5.3% of GDP by 2023.

This S&P Global Market Intelligence news article may contain information about credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings. Descriptions in this news article were not prepared by S&P Global Ratings.