The Polish government approved Feb. 2 an energy policy to 2040 that targets a reduction in coal's share of the power generation mix from 72% in 2020 to 56% in 2030 through the introduction of offshore wind and the further development of onshore wind and solar.
The government approved the "Polish Energy Policy to 2040" document, which is based on three pillars — a just transformation, a zero-emission energy system and good air quality — at its weekly meeting.
In a scenario of high EU emissions allowance prices, the document estimates that coal's share of the generation mix could fall to 37% by 2030. By 2040, coal's share is forecast to fall to at least 28% and to 11% in the event of sustained high emissions allowance prices.
Warsaw expects to spend about 60 billion Polish zlotys to create new jobs in Silesia, home to most of the country's hard coal mines, with support from EU funds.
Coal and lignite will be replaced by investments totaling 130 billion zlotys to build 8 GW to 11 GW of offshore wind capacity in the Baltic Sea. The first projects are due to be ready in 2025 and the policy estimates capacity will reach 5.9 GW by 2030.
Onshore wind capacity is forecast to rise from 6 GW to between 8 GW and 10 GW in 2030, while solar capacity will increase from 3.6 GW to between 5 GW and 7 GW. That target may already be on the low side as solar capacity almost tripled in 2020 alone.
Natural gas is seen as a bridging fuel to replace old coal-fired capacity before the construction of the country's first nuclear reactors.
Building nuclear is a longer-term tool to reduce emissions from the 2030s onward. The policy estimates 6 GW to 9 GW of Generation III or III+ reactors will be built by 2043, with the first of the 1-GW to 1.6-GW units given a highly ambitious startup date of 2033. The successive five units will be built every two to three years, according to the plan, ending in 2043. Investment costs are estimated at 150 billion zlotys.
Poland expects renewable energy to account for at least 23% of final gross energy demand in 2030, up from 12% in 2019, with the power sector contributing at least 32%, the heating sector 28%, and transport 14%.
Greenhouse gas emissions are forecast to fall by 30% in 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
Poland has amongst the worst air quality in the EU and it plans to transform its heating network by switching from coal to gas. Households in cities will stop burning coal for heating by 2030 and in the countryside by 2040, and they will be encouraged to switch to heat pumps and electrical heating systems.
Cities with 100,000 or more residents will switch to 100% zero-emission public transport by 2030.
The new energy policy also forecasts the diversification of oil and gas supplies away from Russia through the construction of the Baltic Pipe, which will allow Poland to import gas directly from Norway, and the construction of the second string of the oil pipeline between the Naftoport loading terminal in the port of Gdańsk and the country's largest refinery in Plock, which will allow for increased maritime oil cargoes. Baltic Pipe is scheduled to be completed in October 2022 and carry capacity of 10 billion cubic meters per year.
The policy also targets the development of hydrogen production and the electric vehicles sector.
As of Feb. 2, US$1 was equivalent to 3.73 Polish zlotys.
Adam Easton is a reporter with S&P Global Platts. S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Platts are owned by S&P Global Inc.