Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. recorded a revenue gain of 8% in the first quarter of 2021 even without the $3.46 billion brought in by the COVID-19 vaccine, beating analysts' estimates and driving up expectations for the full year.

Pfizer's vaccine — co-developed and marketed with Germany's BioNTech SE — is expected to bring in $26 billion for the New York-based company in 2021 based on global contracts, up from a previous forecast of $15 billion.

And that amount could be a conservative estimate, Barclays analyst Carter Gould said in a May 4 note. If pricing and economics hold for remaining doses, potential sales of the vaccine, called Comirnaty, could reach as high as $40 billion, Gould said.

The company raised revenue guidance for the year to a range of $70.5 billion to $72.5 billion. Excluding the COVID-19 vaccine, that forecast accounts for a $200 million boost. Pfizer Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla pointed out on the company's May 4 earnings call that the increased revenue came despite a 5% negative impact from pricing across its portfolio.

People are likely to require additional shots of the COVID-19 vaccine, which means the revenue stream could continue for several years, Bourla said.

"Basically all governments of the world are now discussing with us about procurement agreements for 2022, '23 and '24," Bourla said. As of mid-April, the company contracted to deliver 1.6 billion doses of the two-shot vaccine in 2021.

The projected 2021 sales of the COVID-19 vaccine represent 36% of the total company revenue in 2021, up from 25% as originally estimated for the year's guidance.

Booster shots will likely be necessary to achieve herd immunity in many of the largest countries, Chief Scientific Officer Mikael Dolsten said on the call.

"We need continuously to keep up a very high immune pressure against the virus to stay ahead of the curve, and the best way to do that is with regular boosting," Dolsten said.

Pfizer intends to capitalize further on the mRNA technology behind the vaccine for other infectious disease targets, Dolsten said.

"We have now an mRNA platform that we would like to use for multiple opportunities," Dolsten said. "We expect to put into the clinic two first-in-humans — novel vaccines every year for the next two years."

The company is enrolling a late-stage study to vaccinate against respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, and a vaccine for influenza is in the works.

"Given that we saw 95% efficacy against COVID, we think there is a large module for us to improve on the current flu vaccine," Dolsten said.

Bourla said the speed with which the company developed and delivered the COVID-19 vaccine puts Pfizer in the position to do the same again down the road.

"The success of our COVID-19 vaccine has led to an important question: If we could do this for COVID-19, why not for other diseases?" Bourla said. "There are so many people suffering from other serious diseases, and their needs aren't any less urgent — we now see an opportunity to take the lessons learned and new ways of thinking and apply them across our entire portfolio."

Core business remains strong

Outside of COVID-19 vaccine revenue, sales of cardiovascular drug Eliquis rose 25% operationally to $1.6 billion in the first quarter, driven primarily by patient volume, Bourla said. Also in the cardiovascular space, sales of Vyndaqel and Vyndamax were up 88% on an operational basis but fell short of analyst estimates.

Products that surpassed expectations were smoking cessation drug Chantix; cancer treatments Xeljanz, Xtandi and Sutent; arthritis therapy Enbrel; and menopausal drug Premarin, according to a May 4 note from Cowen analyst Steve Scala.

Pfizer executives have set the company's five-year sights on a 6% compound annual growth rate, and the target is highly achievable and likely to be greater than that, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Louise Chen said in a May 4 note. Chen said the average estimated growth rate for the pharmaceutical industry is about 4%.