Trucks move more than 70% of the United States' freight by weight, according to the American Trucking Associations.
The number of U.S. long-haul truck drivers is still below the number of trained and willing drivers needed to meet demand.
In 2021, the American Trucking Associations estimated there was a shortage of 80,000 drivers, compared with the optimal number of drivers based on freight demand. The shortage could surpass 160,000 drivers in 2030 if current trends continue, the association said.
According to the association, trucks move more than 70% of the country's freight by weight, which means a driver shortage has heavy implications on the U.S. supply chain.
Higher wages are helping to attract drivers, but less-than-ideal working conditions and an older workforce are still helping to drive the shortage.
"Many larger and midsized carriers raised wages multiple times in 2021, just as they did in 2018," said William Cassidy, senior editor of the Journal of Commerce for Maritime & Trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence, and an expert in U.S trucking and logistics. "Cumulatively, that's having an effect."
Trucking companies in April and May added 37,400 nonseasonally adjusted jobs, which was above an expected increase due to seasonality, Cassidy said.
"That's a sign that higher wages and better benefits and conditions are having an impact," he said.
Throughout the chain
Drivers are used in almost every leg of the surface transportation supply chain after freight arrives at a port.
"Port congestion and a lack of drayage capacity affect production lines thousands of miles inland, or whether holiday goods get to store shelves in December or wind up arriving in January," Cassidy said. "There are multiple points where freight can get stranded along the way by lack of a truck or driver."
Many truckers fled the profession during nationwide shutdowns in the early months of the pandemic. Enhanced unemployment benefits during the pandemic created an immediate incentive to remain outside of the labor force, said Lauren Henderson, vice president and economic analyst at Stifel Financial Corp. Some workers took early retirement, while others were sidelined by lingering health concerns resulting from COVID-19.
"Additionally, vaccine requirements, in some instances, led some in the trucking industry specifically to leave their job entirely as they did not want to comply with the mandates," Henderson said.
The driver shortage impacts available capacity and varies by region, said Houston Mason, a supply chain professor at Georgetown University. Some shippers end up paying a premium for capacity that might be limited by a lack of drivers.
Potential fixes
Though still robust, freight demand is expanding more slowly in 2022 than the previous year, which could make the driver shortage more manageable.
Shippers can also help ease the shortage by giving drivers more time to drive, S&P Global's Cassidy said. Drivers often spend hours at a warehouse or distribution center as goods are off-loaded from the truck and are usually not paid for that time.
More places for drivers to rest overnight are needed, and shippers could look at creating safe parking areas for truck drivers near the warehouses or distribution centers, he said.
Decentralizing warehouses would result in more short-haul routes that would appeal to drivers, Georgetown University's Mason said.
"With shorter haul routes, truck driving can become more of a 'home at night' profession that makes it more attractive," he said.
Another approach is changing the type of trucks that deliver freight, according to Penske Logistics, which introduced a new system designed for a customer that uses straight trucks instead of tractor-trailers, which consist of two parts instead of one. This change allows drivers with a Class B license to operate the trucks.
Looking ahead
The driver shortage is showing no signs of abating, especially as the driver population ages. The average age of a U.S. truck driver is 48, and 75% of drivers are 40 or older, said Georgetown University's Mason. About 8% of drivers are between 20 and 30 years old.
Trucking companies that cut back on drivers when the pandemic hit are also now trying to catch up in hiring. Soaring inflation could curb consumer demand, however, and that could help ease pressures in the trucking industry.