U.S. shoppers spent less than economists expected in November.
Retail and food services fell 0.6%, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released Dec. 15. Economists expected that figure to fall 0.2%, according to a consensus estimate compiled by Econoday.
Retail sales
U.S. retail and food services sales came in at $689.44 billion in November, according to the seasonally adjusted preliminary estimate from the Census Bureau. The decline came after an increase in October..
Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores dropped 2.6%, the biggest monthly decline in all retail categories excluding gas stations, bars and restaurants. Monthly sales at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers declined 2.5%. Monthly sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers fell 2.3%.
Food and beverage store sales rose 0.8%, the highest monthly increase among all categories.
The sales figures are not adjusted for inflation, which may have peaked. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in November from the previous month and 7.1% year over year.
"Disposable income growth has struggled to keep up with inflation, and it's only a matter of time before this headwind strengthens — the recent pace of job and wage gains cannot persist. And, relatively high interest rates will make consumers less willing to use credit cards to maintain their spending," Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist for Oxford Economics, said in a Dec. 15 note.
Default risk
As of Dec. 14, the median probability of default score for all publicly traded U.S. retailers was unchanged from a month ago.
Internet and direct marketing retailers again had the highest median market signal one-year probability of default of any sector at 10.1%, up from 8.2% a month earlier, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The score, which represents the odds of default within a year, is based mainly on the volatility of stock prices for public companies and accounts for country- and industry-related risks.
Bankruptcies
There have been 17 retail bankruptcy filings this year through Dec. 15, with two new filings in the first half of December, according to Market Intelligence data. That is the fewest number of bankruptcy filings in comparable periods since at least 2010.