The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year, the seventh consecutive above-average season, officials said during a May 24 briefing in New York.

The administration, or NOAA, forecasts a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes, defined as having winds of 74 mph or greater. Out of those, three to six could become major hurricanes, which are classified as Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or greater, as atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for a busy season, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

NOAA forecasters predict that the likelihood of an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%, with a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Multiple climate factors are expected to drive increased hurricane activity this year, including La Niña conditions likely persisting through the season; warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds; and an enhanced west African monsoon, according to NOAA.

An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African easterly waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes during most seasons, NOAA officials said.

"As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area 10 years ago — remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years," NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said. "Since Sandy, NOAA's forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes."

The 2020 and 2021 hurricane seasons marked the first time on record that two consecutive seasons exhausted the list of 21 storm names: 2020 had 30 named storms, the most active year on record for named storms, and 2021 had 21, the third most.

Hurricane Ida was among the most devastating storms of the 2021 hurricane season. Entergy Corp., which serves much of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and parts of Texas, estimated its costs from Ida at about $2.7 billion in February, when regulators granted subsidiary Entergy Louisiana LLC's settlement for 2020 and 2021 storm costs and a $1 billion escrow formation for Ida costs.

Company executives have also emphasized storm hardening, reliability and resiliency investments across Entergy systems, including a $5.8 billion distribution and utility support capital plan and a $2.3 billion transmission plan to boost reliability and renewables expansion.

"We're seeing these storms happen more frequently. They're lasting longer," Deanne Criswell, the Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, said during the briefing. "Hurricane Ida ... became a Category 4 hurricane and it stayed a Category 4 hurricane for four hours over southern Louisiana. That's just a remarkable, incredible amount of damage. ... We're seeing such a dramatic change in the type of weather events we're facing as a result of climate change."

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