Developers are expected to build 57 GW of new wind and solar resources in the next two years, causing the share of natural gas in the country's generation mix to fall to 34% by the end of 2023, a decline of 3 percentage points from 2021, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Nonhydropower renewable energy sources will have a 17% share of the U.S. power supply mix by 2023, up from 13% in 2021, the EIA projected.

Since 2019, more nonhydropower renewable capacity has been added to the U.S. generation fleet than natural gas capacity, the EIA said. The share of coal-fired resources in the generation fleet is forecast to be 22% in 2023, down from 23% in 2021, the EIA said.

"One of the most significant shifts in the mix of U.S. electricity generation over the past 10 years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind," the EIA said in a Jan. 18 release. "The amount of solar power generating capacity operated by the U.S. electric power sector at the end of 2021 is 20 times more than it was at the end of 2011, and U.S. wind power capacity is more than twice what it was 10 years ago."

Wind power in the past decade drove renewable energy growth in the U.S. But that trend is set to shift, with the EIA projecting that renewable energy developers will install 46 GW of new solar power through the end of 2023 and 11 GW of new wind power over the same period.

The agency said the U.S. will see 21 GW of solar power capacity and 7 GW of wind power capacity added to the generation fleet in 2022, making it the first year that developers build more solar than wind resources in the U.S.

The EIA projected an additional 25 GW of solar and 4 GW of wind power in 2023. Meanwhile, hydropower accounts for 7% of generation in 2022 and 2023.

The slowdown of wind power capacity growth, after the industry added a record 17 GW in 2021, "can be partly attributed to the phasedown of the production tax credit (PTC) and supply chain issues," the agency said. Congress extended the PTC through the end of 2021. Solar capacity growth will continue to enjoy support under an investment tax credit under which projects that start in 2022 are eligible for a 26% credit, dropping to 22% in 2023.

The electric power sector had 63 GW of existing solar power generating capacity at the end of 2021, with operating wind capacity at 135 GW, the EIA reported.

The EIA said in its January "Short Term Energy Outlook" that natural gas prices will remain relatively high compared to recent years, despite short-term declines.

"We expect that regions of the country with the largest increases in renewable capacity, such as Texas and the Midwest/Central regions, will experience the largest reductions in natural gas generation," the EIA said in its outlook.

Still, reforms of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas Inc. market could provide more incentives for fossil fuel plant investment as regulators attempt to shore up grid reliability in response to the deadly February 2021 winter storm.

Preliminary data indicates that operators plan to add 5 GW of battery storage capacity in 2022 and 5 GW in 2023, the EIA said, most of which will be paired with solar capacity.

Small-scale solar photovoltaic capacity will increase by roughly 5 GW in 2022 and by a similar amount in 2023, with residential installation accounting for 70% of that capacity in 2022 and 64% in 2023, the EIA projected.